1. 06-01-12 03:41 PM #1
    BlacK_HazE
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    New NBA Playoff System:

    If there's one thing I learned about betting the NBA playoffs it's that you can't expect to just fade the public and hit at as highly as a percentage as you hit during the regular season (mainly because series bets, future bets, etc etc all come into play).. So I've developed a new system for playoff betting (thanks to insider, accuscore, & sportsinsights) I know its kinda late in the playoffs to just now bust out a new system but it is what it is, and if it ends up working I plan on using this in the future post-season's to come...

    How it works:
    The system use's a variety of mathematical methods to project games.
    In making ATS and Over/Under picks, the system considers this projected score plus a variety of other models, stats, and analysis. The system analyzes 11,528 match-ups since 03 and identifies 75 historical games most similar to the game. For example take tonight's Heat vs Celtics game for instance, the pick will be based of similar historical games such as:

    -Home teams with stats similar to Boston
    -Away teams with stats similar to Miami
    -Similar betting lines & other game details

    Each game will be given either a *,**, or *** rating depending on the confidence of the play.
    *= .1 - 3.0 difference between projected outcome & the spread
    **= 3.1 - 6.0
    ***= 6.1 - 9.0

    Previewing Tonight's Game:




    Win/Odds predictions
    -Quantitative analysis of 75 similar historical matchups over the past 7 years.
    (Miami 60%, Boston 40%)
    -Team's performance at outscoring opponents, adjusted for schedule strength.
    (Miami 51%, Boston 49%)
    -Mathematical model that identifies key factors that project wins and losses.
    (Miami 49%, Boston 51%)

    System indicates pretty much a coin flip on the spread tonight. Will go with the safest bet tonight.

    Play:     Celts ML *
    Last edited by SBR Jonelyn; 07-08-15 at 12:24 PM. Reason: image does not exist
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  2. 06-01-12 03:43 PM #2
    Bdolan33
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    Id like to see how this theory.system plays out after it gets a few plays under its belt
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  3. 06-02-12 12:40 AM #3
    figue
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    nice win .
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  4. 06-02-12 03:38 PM #4
    BlacK_HazE
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    Previewing Tonight's Game: 6/02/12




    Win/Odds predictions
    -Quantitative analysis of 75 similar historical matchups over the past 7 years.
    (OKC 63%, SAN 37%)
    -Team's performance at outscoring opponents, adjusted for schedule strength.
    (OKC 54%, SAN 46%)
    -Mathematical model that identifies key factors that project wins and losses.
    (OKC 58%, SAN 42%)





    Play: Oklahoma City -3.5 * & Over 201 *
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  5. 06-02-12 03:44 PM #5
    Snowball
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    this is interesting.
    where did you get the computer program ?
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  6. 06-02-12 10:17 PM #6
    BlacK_HazE
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    System Updated Record: 3-0 !!!

    Be back with a play early tomorrow morning. System leaning towards Miami, still have to wait to gather some more info.
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  7. 06-02-12 10:26 PM #7
    BlacK_HazE
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snowball View Post
    this is interesting.
    where did you get the computer program ?
    kinda hard to explain, but basically I gather info each day from Insider and SportsInsights.. The game totals are via TrueRankings and Accuscore. Pretty much the pics I show are the main deciding factors whether I determine if a game is a play or not.. It cost $ to be a member to each website, but it's looking like it's worth the investment.
    Points Awarded:

    turtlejc gave BlacK_HazE 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.

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  8. 06-02-12 10:32 PM #8
    ren2_laurence
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    Wow! Nice! Please post your picks for game 4 Mia-Bos! Thanks!
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  9. 06-03-12 12:50 AM #9
    ses_d
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    great start
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  10. 06-03-12 12:54 AM #10
    k4cowboys4k
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    I've been following the advice, thanks for the 3 wins bud
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  11. 06-03-12 02:23 AM #11
    figue
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  12. 06-03-12 02:32 AM #12
    BrUno0
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlacK_HazE View Post
    kinda hard to explain, but basically I gather info each day from Insider and SportsInsights.. The game totals are via TrueRankings and Accuscore. Pretty much the pics I show are the main deciding factors whether I determine if a game is a play or not.. It cost $ to be a member to each website, but it's looking like it's worth the investment.
    any chance you could give a link to TrueRankings and Insider? tried searching google for both, but to no avail
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  13. 06-03-12 02:38 AM #13
    figue
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    Quote Originally Posted by BrUno0 View Post
    any chance you could give a link to TrueRankings and Insider? tried searching google for both, but to no avail
    i think one is teamrankings http://www.teamrankings.com/nba/tren...ends/all_games
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  14. 06-03-12 08:17 AM #14
    BlacK_HazE
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    http://www.teamrankings.com/
    http://insider.espn.go.com/
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  15. 06-03-12 08:40 AM #15
    BlacK_HazE
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    Win/Odds predictions
    -Quantitative analysis of 75 similar historical matchups over the past 7 years.
    (Miami 66%, Boston 34%)
    -Team's performance at outscoring opponents, adjusted for schedule strength.
    (Miami 50%, Boston 50%)
    -Mathematical model that identifies key factors that project wins and losses.
    (Miami 53%, Boston 47%)

    Tonight's game has been the hardest to cap so far with the system. No play on the over/under tonight. This is the first time so far not all 3 sources agree with one another.. Accuscore/TrueRankings both predict a Boston cover, where as Sportsinsights, predicts Miami to win: Miami 91.1 Boston 89.3. Past historical games aren't really a help as well determining a winner. I would strongly suggest if you are following the system to make a small/no bet tonight.

    Play: Celts +1.5 *
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  16. 06-03-12 09:34 AM #16
    Tarrum
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    I don't care where or how this works, it seems epic and 3 wins in a row is also a great sign. Thank you for this great topic, will probably go with the Celts.
    Last edited by Tarrum; 06-03-12 at 09:40 AM.
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  17. 06-03-12 09:40 AM #17
    Demonata
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    Good picks man. I really appreciate them and the in depth analysis.
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  18. 06-03-12 10:16 AM #18
    PHyldahl
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    hope this works great for you.

    had an asian making something similar to me in soccer and I'm very happy about that decision. did it for 500, $/h scary low in asianland.
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  19. 06-03-12 11:41 AM #19
    Winning oasis
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    Game AccuScore TeamRankings.com Line
    Sunday, June 3
    @
    Jun 3, 8 PM ET
    MIA 89.6
    BOS 92
    More Info
    Win MIA
    Cover BOS
    More Info
    +1.5

    If you are an "ESPN Insider" got to NBA, "ODDS" and it lays it out for the PROBABILITY for the win. The first 3 have been favorable but dont think these are a LOCK. It does the same thing for baseball and football also. I've been using it for years and it is PROBABILITY and not a certainty. Its wrong just as much as its right. Dont get me wrong, I hope its right the 4th time in a row to get us back to Miami but dont go crazy. Just sayin". GOOD LUCK TO ALL.
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  20. 06-03-12 11:43 AM #20
    Winning oasis
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    715 Miami 91.1
    716 Boston 89.3
    Boston +1.5
    Over 180
    Low Confidence

    Sorry, meant to add this on the first one. You can also hit the blue, "more info" and it links you to the other detailed info.
    Last edited by sbr.rodrigo; 04-13-15 at 05:22 PM.
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  21. 06-03-12 11:46 AM #21
    spargament
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    Rolling the dice with a fade after 3 straight impressive Ws. BOL to all.
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  22. 06-03-12 12:11 PM #22
    Jayvegas420
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    This line should be much higher.
    The line makers never set Boston as a dog unless they know they are going to lose.
    Heat win by 9 or 10.
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  23. 06-03-12 11:06 PM #23
    BlacK_HazE
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    4-0 baby!!!

    @Winning Oasis - The system picks are not just based on accuscore solely, i also take into account past historical games, and steam-roll plays from sportsinsights. I used to use just accuscore for college football last season and after going about 50-50 midway through the season I decided to ditch it.Trust me I know all about how accurate just using accuscore is..
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  24. 06-03-12 11:21 PM #24
    figue
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  25. 06-03-12 11:35 PM #25
    ren2_laurence
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    Do you have a play for game 5, Sas-OKC, pal?
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  26. 06-04-12 12:03 AM #26
    BlacK_HazE
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    Quote Originally Posted by ren2_laurence View Post
    Do you have a play for game 5, Sas-OKC, pal?
    2 sites won't release info till early tommorow morning. Will have play posted early again
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  27. 06-04-12 12:29 AM #27
    Tarrum
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    You're the best man, can't wait for your next posts.
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  28. 06-04-12 08:49 AM #28
    BlacK_HazE
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    Win/Odds predictions
    -Quantitative analysis of 75 similar historical matchups over the past 7 years.
    (OKC 37%, SAN 63%)
    -Team's performance at outscoring opponents, adjusted for schedule strength.
    (OKC 41%, SAN 59%)
    -Mathematical model that identifies key factors that project wins and losses.
    (OKC 45%, SAN 55%)

    Play: Under 202 & OKC +5
    Points Awarded:

    Dmoneytx gave BlacK_HazE 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.

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  29. 06-04-12 12:30 PM #29
    celtics3388
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    GL, glad to see your model likes the under as well.
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  30. 06-04-12 12:49 PM #30
    IllyPhilly[DOC]
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlacK_HazE View Post
    4-0 baby!!!

    @Winning Oasis - The system picks are not just based on accuscore solely, i also take into account past historical games, and steam-roll plays from sportsinsights. I used to use just accuscore for college football last season and after going about 50-50 midway through the season I decided to ditch it.Trust me I know all about how accurate just using accuscore is..
    Good stuff keep it up
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  31. 06-04-12 05:41 PM #31
    Winning oasis
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    You're on a roll brother. Good job. I enjoy your posts. Stay positive.
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  32. 06-04-12 05:59 PM #32
    BrUno0
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    Just curious when you run miami v boston simulations i would assume it does not account for bosh's injury for the most part?
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  33. 06-04-12 11:32 PM #33
    BlacK_HazE
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    Updated record: 5-1

    system got handed it's first loss tonight.. under looked good until after halftime. Oh well, cant win them all. Be back early tommorow with a play for Miami/Boston.. Hope everyone had a good night cappin!
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  34. 06-04-12 11:33 PM #34
    BlacK_HazE
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    Quote Originally Posted by BrUno0 View Post
    Just curious when you run miami v boston simulations i would assume it does not account for bosh's injury for the most part?
    They won't be listed till tomorrow morning but they do list projected stats for each player so I will see if they include Bosh or not. Will let you know tomorrow asap!
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  35. 06-05-12 08:25 AM #35
    BlacK_HazE
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    Win/Odds predictions
    -Quantitative analysis of 75 similar historical matchups over the past 7 years.
    (Miami 73%, Boston 27%)
    -Team's performance at outscoring opponents, adjusted for schedule strength.
    (Miami 65%, Boston 35%)
    -Mathematical model that identifies key factors that project wins and losses.
    (Miami 77%, Boston 23%)

    The system does include C. Bosh playing tonight for the heat. To be honest I didn't think the system would predict the edge to be in Miami's favor. When you also take into account that 75% of the public is on the celts (just because Celts +8 looks like easy money) Heat -8 might be a big play for me tonight.

    Play: Miami -8 * & U179 *
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