[PR9]

It's interesting that tonight is Sacramento's only National TV home game of the season. And checking around, their players know it.

[Love The Action]

Uh oh...Sactown has the "black's" on. They are playing with energy. Good luck guys, I like what I'm seeing here for you.

[PR9]

good point you raised with OKC playing tomorrow in utah. But at the same time, I've seen a road team conserve energy for a bigger game the next night when playing a better team. That's part of what I'm betting on here as I felt Sac would play hard tonight.

This is an interesting spot all around, regardless.

[Kindred]

RLM=

[Love The Action]

although Utah hasn't looked as crisp at home recently compared to earlier in the season, going Utah if Sac doesn't cover tonight.

good point you raised with OKC playing tomorrow in utah. But at the same time, I've seen a road team conserve energy for a bigger game the next night when playing a better team. That's part of what I'm betting on here as I felt Sac would play hard tonight.

This is an interesting spot all around, regardless.

Might be unplayable. Cris/BM opened up at +2 and were quickly bet down to a PK. Pinny opened up at +1.5 and is now at +1. Neither of my locals has the game up yet. Not sure I can play this at anything less than +110 on the ML. If Sac wins, that would also hurt this play. Let's see what happens with the line moves when the limits open up a little bit more. OKC money will come at some point, but I suspect it will be mostly public money and arbs that won't really provide for OKC steam that we would need to get a solid number on this game.

Sactown looking good, up by 2 at the half. You have to like that OKC is shooting lights out and still losing because of Sacramento's uptempo pace. Should be a competitive 2h. GL.

[PR9]

well the Refs are all over OKC. Kings getting whacked left and right while you can't breathe on a Thunder player. Even the announcers called out the refs for the 4 bogus calls against Sac in the first 10 mins of the game. Sac should be up 10 at the half, not 2

When okc whacked Jimmer with both arms almost knocking the ball away from him in the open court because he was fouled so hard, with about 2 mins left in the half..and no foul.. I was like WOW

[migz]

well the Refs are all over OKC. Kings getting whacked left and right while you can't breathe on a Thunder player. Even the announcers called out the refs for the 4 bogus calls against Sac in the first 10 mins of the game. Sac should be up 10 at the half, not 2

When okc whacked Jimmer with both arms almost knocking the ball away from him in the open court because he was fouled so hard, with about 2 mins left in the half..and no foul.. I was like WOW

Lol, even if Scott Foster isn't there refs are helping this team. You think OKC has some energy left tomorrow?

[Love The Action]

Great call Sac backers

[PR9]

The young misfits from Sacramento DID IT ! Woooot!! Those fukkers DID it!! Those bastard misfits covered 1st half, full game spread, and the small sprinkling on the ML vs the #1 record in the league.

BLACK THURSDAY >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

http://aroyalpain.com/2012/02/08/sac...lack-thursday/

[PR9]

Early RLM's for Friday (Keep in mind we are concentrating on the "early" RLM's and going by that only, not all the RLM that will happen later from daylight morning throughout the day)..

As of 2:15am EST Friday morning:

-Memphis drops a half point to -1.5 when 75% of the bets on them.

-Lakers drop a half point from -3.5 to -3 when 94% of the bets on them.

-OKC drops half a point to -1 when 64% are on them.

-Orlando goes from -5 straight to -4, then a bump to -4.5 with 78% placed on them.

-Celtics drop a full point from -4.5 to -3.5 when almost 100% of bets placed on them (find this VERY odd as the Celtics have absolutely owned the Raptors like nobody's business and should be bigger favorites)

[migz]

PR9, you said the Raptors have no chance to win vs the Celtics. You still think they have no chance?

[grizzy]

Yeah, I don't get the Celtics/Raptors line at all. The C's always smash the Raps. I know Friday is usually the night of the dog in the NBA, but I'll take my chances fading the Raps.

[PR9]

PR9, you said the Raptors have no chance to win vs the Celtics. You still think they have no chance?

I wouldn't put money on the raptors against them. We all know crazy things happen in the NBA, and nothing surprises me. But my God do the Celtics ever have their number. It's been ugly.. like watching the Harlem Globetrotters playing the kids at your nearest neighborhood park

[jayson311]

Love this thread.

[PR9]

if anything i would bet very small on raps 1 Q. yeah I know they've sucked in 1st quarters but players realize it and they've played strong 1st Q recently - 30 pts vs bucks and covered 1st Q in miami easily... Moreover , toronto is talking about how they must come out flying and start strong tonight,, and treating this game like it's their game 7

http://www.nba.com/games/20120210/BO...t2hp0021100388

Hence "very" small, if anything. I see LB has Raps as his largest play of the night. This is a risky game with bayless out and with calderon checking rondo it could be ugly. Nothing surprises me in the nba and raps could very well upset them (the 2 wins for the C's on b2b's were at home not on the road), but for me it's too risky to lay anything bigger. so many games out there in nba and college

It's funny though how the line is still stuck on -3.5 at 3pm this afternoon.,, with everyone and their brother betting on Boston

[PR9]

Well the Raps held true to their word that they would start the game "flying' tonight. My only regret is I only bet 1 unit on the 1st quarter.

Like Sacramento last night, this game is the super bowl for TOR. Meanwhile, Boston looks like total shit like they could care less about this game. Their feet are stuck in cement, absolutely ZERO jump to their step whatsoever.

[guayabaconqueso]

I love your thread. Where do you find the percentage of money being bet by the public?

[PR9]

Early RLM's for Friday (Keep in mind we are concentrating on the "early" RLM's and going by that only, not all the RLM that will happen later from daylight morning throughout the day)..

As of 2:15am EST Friday morning:

-Memphis drops a half point to -1.5 when 75% of the bets on them.

-Lakers drop a half point from -3.5 to -3 when 94% of the bets on them.

-OKC drops half a point to -1 when 64% are on them.

-Orlando goes from -5 straight to -4, then a bump to -4.5 with 78% placed on them.

-Celtics drop a full point from -4.5 to -3.5 when almost 100% of bets placed on them (find this VERY odd as the Celtics have absolutely owned the Raptors like nobody's business and should be bigger favorites)

We were 5-1 BEFORE tonight going with the line moves and "EARLY" RLM's.

Of that list above for tonight's action,, all of TOR, MEM, NYK, ATL won.. that makes it 8-2 on these EARLY moves and non moves with heavy betting (record of the games discussed in this thread). Memphis is the only team that covered that gave pts with favorable betting percentage,

We will be either 8-3 or 9-2 depending on what happens in the OKC-Utah game

[migz]

Wow, PR9. You should continue this thread.

[jolmscheid]

What site are you using for public %?

[Speedy88]

What site are you using for public %?

I use sportsinsights.com. shows you pub bet % on spread, ml, and over/under.

http://www.sportsinsights.com/nba-betting-trends.aspx

[PR9]

Wow, PR9. You should continue this thread.

sure. just going to clear my head with some brazen tunes first.. PR9's "Headbangers Ball", with one of the more underrated & fabulously skilled musicians of the era

[Speedy88]

A lot of early lines moving in the right direction:

Magic move from -1 to -2 with 81% of the public on them

Spurs move from -8.5 to -10 with 90% of the public on them

New York moves from +7.5 to +6.5 with 88% on them

Phili moves from -5.5 to -6.5 with 79% on them

[Kalibongo]

A lot of early lines moving in the right direction:

Magic move from -1 to -2 with 81% of the public on them

Spurs move from -8.5 to -10 with 90% of the public on them

New York moves from +7.5 to +6.5 with 88% on them

Phili moves from -5.5 to -6.5 with 79% on them

I don't understand RLM that much, what do you do when this happens?

[Speedy88]

I don't understand RLM that much, what do you do when this happens?

What I just listed isn't RLM. RLM is when the line moves in the wrong direction (reverse direction). For instance, if 80% were on the Thunder and Thunder moved from -8 to -7, that would be RLM.

If you still don't get it, just google Reverse Line Movement. Plenty of sites can explain it.

[PR9]

A lot of early lines moving in the right direction:

yeah I'm going to take a little time off from this topic as too much is going right. As I stated in the OP more upsets and whacky things occur during the middle of the week. I'll pop this back up in a couple days (or sunday if there's alot of weird stuff goin on)...

Until then.. a beautiful way to go for a nice walk on an early saturday morning with headphones blaring before turning into bed

[lunchbawks]

Wow, PR9. You should continue this thread.

this

[PR9]

just one more boys before hitting the sack... To show Testament's immense talent with some ridiculously good album releases in the 80's and early 90's, they come out with this insatiable masterpiece 15 years later when they finally got back together..

We're going to have some NBA picks next week boys that will "More than Meet the Eye" ;-)



Let's hear it LOUD & PROUD !!

[Speedy88]

Well I'll go ahead and bump this thread back up.

Pacers opened at -4 are are already down to -2.5 with 65% of the bets on them.

[hawley]

Think the Nuggets win SU today

[PR9]

getting my head ready by brushing off some of the older Test albums. Gotta say their first album "the Legacy" is likely the best debut album of all-time of this particular genre. Better than Metallica's "Kill em All" debut imo. I think underrated was the wrong word, more like unheard. Testament's first 3 or so albums are indeed classics, and stand the test of time. At the very least they were certainly well ahead of their time as nobody else sounded like them.

I remember being a 16 year old kid walking into a record shop and buying my first Testament album sometime in 1990 after reading a glowing review from a rock magazine (back then there was no internet obviously so everything was more mysterious with artists and info was less accessible). And I clearly remember the album knocking me on my ass the first day . couldn't get their cassettes out of my car stereo for months. couldn't stop humming their beautiful melodies and riffs and song construction or days on end. It was a mindfuck. and couldn't wait to buy more of their amazing stuff..











EDIT - taking a break from full game bets tonight.. not much tie today and just making 3 or 4 small plays on 1st Q and 1st H bets.

[PR9]

Well I'll go ahead and bump this thread back up.

Pacers opened at -4 are are already down to -2.5 with 65% of the bets on them.

yeah the line moved as of 2am this morning, so with these "early" line moves the thread record is 9-3

[migz]

yeah the line moved as of 2am this morning, so with these "early" line moves the thread record is 9-3

Early leans for tonight's games?

[Speedy88]

PR, another thing that I've noticed is that when a line moves over a full point in the right direction teams have been covering.

For instance Sixers moved from -5.5 to -7.5 and they covered. Same with Knicks and Spurs today.

[ChiLLx]

Some early RLM on Chicago, Miami, Detroit, and LA. Public all over them and they move the wrong way.

Chicago already moved a point from -3.5 to -2.5, is Rose confirmed or not?