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Well lets see if Vegas sets traps:
Sac covered and won against Portland
Knicks covered against Chicago
Memphis covered and beatdown the Hawks
Denver covered and beatdown the Clipps
So yes, traps do exist. Every trap set today worked for Vegas
Idiots like you are why Vegas sets these so called "traps."
Originally Posted by Speedy88
Well lets see if Vegas sets traps:
Sac covered and won against Portland
Knicks covered against Chicago
Memphis covered and beatdown the Hawks
Denver covered and beatdown the Clipps
So yes, traps do exist. Every trap set today worked for Vegas
Idiots like you are why Vegas sets these so called "traps."
Books made a KILLING tonight.
Do ya get it yet? The objective is to identify and exploit these lines.
Squares lost their roll tonight while the sharps got that breaddd
Yup, would have had a perfect day if it weren't for GS missing the halftime line by 1 pt. Great day for non-squares.
See? All traps tonight and some mediocres are dead tonight
Same here.Yup, would have had a perfect day if it weren't for GS missing the halftime line by 1 pt. Great day for non-squares.
I don't know why people are shocked when road favorites don't cover.
GS was a no brainer for me. I know they have been up and down all year, but the Warriors are a nightmare match up for a fatigued team. David Lee is the key to that team, if he can stay out of foul trouble, they are a rock solid NBA team. But after David Lee, they don't have much inside. And when I say much, I pretty much mean nothing.
no fkng way vegas likes to have more money bet on bulls, clipps, hawks, and jazz (the 4 most heavily bet teams in the nba tonight by % of bets). there's no rhyme or reason to why clipps moved the other way, jazz was basically static, bulls moved only half a point with almost 80%, and hawks moved maybe i think half or 1 point with close to 80%. it's cuz vegas has no clue and is tryin to get 1/2 1/2 and not pay attention.
vegas just doesn't care. they do not like to clean 4-0 on the public.
they would rather get small juice. vegas does not take their edges when the public is all over a side without reason
in short vegas cleaned up massively tonight on everyone who thinks similar to op in this thread.
edit: wow i didn't even fkng mention blazers kings....vegas fkng cleaned so hard tonight. lol at this thread
i don't even fkng know betting at all, i'm just not an idiot
variance tho, vegas got lucky tonight
Last edited by YouHave2outs; 02-03-12 at 12:46 AM.
still waiting on the OP to drop in............
May the OP please come forward.
crashing now, but does anyone have thoughts on my post? sheer coincidence? 5/6 games vegas puts out a weird line on all hit. 4/4 of the obvious weird ones vegas cleans....is it just my idiocy?
Obviously people on this forum only remember when "traps" from underdogs hit and forget about all of the favorites that commonly cover.Well lets see if Vegas sets traps:
Sac covered and won against Portland
Knicks covered against Chicago
Memphis covered and beatdown the Hawks
Denver covered and beatdown the Clipps
So yes, traps do exist. Every trap set today worked for Vegas
Idiots like you are why Vegas sets these so called "traps."
First of all, since when is picking Denver/LAC going into a "trap?" You're talking about the #2 and #3 seeds in the Western Conference currently, both teams playing damn well at the moment. And look at Chicago, they are on a b2b, on the road, and without Deng and Hamilton, two of their starters. Not only that, NYK covered the spread on some lucky mis-foul by the Bulls and missed free throws at the end, which Chicago didn't care about as long as they won SU. Not much of a "trap" if you ask me.
Earlier this week:
ATL@NOH Atlanta -2.5 line, win by 22 points
LAL@MIN Lakers +2 line, win by 5 points
DAL@PHX Dallas -5 line, win by 23 points
ATL@TOR Atlanta -6 line, win by 23 points
CHA@LAL Lakers -12.5 line, win by 33 points
TOR@BOS Boston -8.5 line, win by 36 points
You all acting like Vegas always gets it correct on their "trap" lines, you really think Vegas wants to get 99% of bettors on one side then lose?
Last edited by dwluv3333; 02-03-12 at 01:36 AM.
You are looking at tonights games logically, which is the correct way of doing so.
Clips were a trap. Majority of public was on them, yet the line was moving in the other direction, enticing even more people to jump on them. Vegas was 100% ok with that, knowing the spot that the clippers were in tonight.
It is all about public perception.
Explain how the lines were weird.
Can you explain how those were "traps".Well lets see if Vegas sets traps:
Sac covered and won against Portland
Knicks covered against Chicago
Memphis covered and beatdown the Hawks
Denver covered and beatdown the Clipps
So yes, traps do exist. Every trap set today worked for Vegas
Idiots like you are why Vegas sets these so called "traps."
Blazers -3.5 isn't a trap. What would you expect the line to be? Blazers -5.5 more to your liking? Or would you prefer for the Blazers to get + points since the Kings are such a good team?
Atlanta should be favored at home against memphis but Atlanta is a hot and cold team. So that loss isn't a surprise either.
Denver beating on the Clips means nothing the betting on that game was pretty close to 50/50. The total that Vegas also set for that game 206 looked like it was about to get smashed until the Clippers just decided to stop scoring after the 2nd quarter.
All of those lines screamed for people to take POR/LAC/CHI/ATL. Hence why the public pounded each of those teams. Not to mention the line moved to make the plays on those teams even jucier. Do I need to explain more?
Call them what you want, but Vegas definitely had a great night in the NBA. I'm no boy genius here, but if Vegas see's that Team A is getting pounded by 75% of the public, and then they move the line in favor of Team A, then they obviously don't mind the public going all in on that side . IMO that constitutes a trap. Now whether that trap works for them or not is a whole other question.
Last edited by Speedy88; 02-03-12 at 01:49 AM.
This.
I didn't even know that there was "RLM" on the Clippers game, but I'm sure everyone was jumping on the Clippers d***ks after they went up 32-19 after 1Q and had they won, woulda said Denver was the "trap" side due to their "revenge factor" or whatever.
But seriously if you look at betting trends before you place your bet and let them influence your choices, then you probably should not be betting. Go with what you think will win, don't sit there for hours watching what Vegas is "doing". They are good at what they do but they can't predict the future. They are not the ones playing on the court.
Because my last sentence was intended to be condescending... No one ever wants to associate themselves with the betting masses because of the social stigma in this forum attached to playing the public side. Day in and day out, guys complain about how if the refs hadn't favoured the home team, their bet would have cashed... or talk about how Vegas knew some highly unlikely outcome would occur... or how the late line movement sealed that team as a winner before it started... Square side, sharp side, and so on... It's comedy.
We're operating in an era where information has never before been so readily available. The internet is saturated with everything you could possibly want to know about tonight's card, but it just doesn't help the average bettor because he won't put the effort into research, and/or he won't practice good money management, and/or he just doesn't have the judgement to make unbiased decisions. The vast majority of people beat themselves, and the books longterm profitability is all but assured. Maybe the bookmakers lean out on a game here or there, but there's enough smart money out there to temper that ambition when they reach too far. So are some games purposely listed with deceptive spreads? Sure. But not every game, or even the majority.
Well the nuggets could not have been a trap, as line movement was favoring a play on the clippers..
Its advisable to have some sort of a system because obviously "fading the public" blindly will not reap profit.
Plays are not strictly based off of line movement, or line movement at all sometimes. But in certain spots it is absolutely +ev
I agree with everything you just said. Capping games and nothing else is how to approach a card daily.
Im merely stating that it is advisable to exploit a "deceptive" line when one is identified.
Which brings up a whole other point about half of sbr thinking there are several trap games every day, or even 1 every day for that matter.
I don't think for a second that they're as common as people think, but it'd be foolish to assume they don't exist. I have read articles containing interviews with former oddsmakers.
Books don't like even action on sports betting unlike casino card games the action is not even perpetually, difference is by millions. The juice is there to safeguard against even action thats all. Many times they know the result beforehand and try to lure as many $ to the opposite side.
Governing body of soccer & basketball, bookmakers and clubs are in cahoots. Because governing body and books advertise to give viewership to teams. Teams will return favour.
Very simple logic and they do it underhanded.
Fans and gamblers are the main people who pump money into the industry, benefits all of them.
Why exactly are you so certain of this? Surely they have computerized ways of figuring out spreads/totals/favorites (ESPN has Accuscore for example) but to say they know the result beforehand is exaggerating. We cannot pretend that they know more about the games than the players/coaches themselves do, and it's not like these guys have personal conversations with the people involved in the actual game. It's just that people only tend to notice greatly when Vegas correctly calls an upset/close total, rather than when they are way off.
Trust me they have people on the ground. The people could be inside the teams too; players, coaches and director. No reason in this world will books form large cartels to share info about bet volume if it is profitable to each individual book just from juice. However they don't need to manipulate all games, just selected games. They are sharper than most gamblers not by using computerized software. If not the result is already predicted by bettors' software already.
It is something which average bettors don't possess, connections.
In soccer, the world follow Macau casino. In basketball, the world follow Vegas. Only this 2 leaders set lines. Macau and Vegas have connections on the ground.
Of course bettors themselves want revenge too, they form underground syndicates to try to manipulate matches to their favour. Starting from smaller markets, leagues, bribing their referees and players. When the things go big, vegas/macau cry foul, bring govt & police to shut them down.
Last edited by YOUSENKO; 02-03-12 at 03:01 AM.
solid winner
Great post Suicidekings, but I disagree that "The internet is saturated with everything you could possibly want to know about tonight's card." On top of their resources, the syndicates have access to and pay big $$$ for the valuable info the rest of us will never get our hands on, be it from a trainer or a reporter who travels with the team for example.
The biggest trap, I think, is applying the hindsight bias when looking at the line after the outcome of a game.
Verrry very true.
If Rose hits one free throw, Bulls cover.
This trap game talk is BS.
.
I mean you could say that about any game. Final score is the final score. Get out of here with that what-if crap.
Its possible Rose was instructed not to hit the free throw so none of bulls taker survive. I believe bulls had much more money than NYK after losing to miami.
What? Do you think the NBA is rigged? If it is why bet on it?
Can you please explain this. Call me ignorant but are you implying the NBA is rigged also? Not quite sure what you mean by 'Vegas'. I'm not from the States.Well lets see if Vegas sets traps:
Sac covered and won against Portland
Knicks covered against Chicago
Memphis covered and beatdown the Hawks
Denver covered and beatdown the Clipps
So yes, traps do exist. Every trap set today worked for Vegas
Idiots like you are why Vegas sets these so called "traps."
If the sport is not rigged and perfectly fair then we should not bet on it. Similarly to casino card games, they are cold and not rigged. We will lose forever to juice.
There is money to be made when human manipulation is in the sport.
Last edited by YOUSENKO; 02-03-12 at 03:56 AM.
When I say Vegas, I mean the books. And no I'm not saying the NBA is rigged. I'm just saying that the bookies who set these lines try to get action on one side by setting what looks like an appealing line. For instance, most people thought POR -3.5 was a gift from god today. Nearly 75% of the public was on POR -3.5, yet they lost straight up.
Ok cool thank man.
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