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Leans for Sunday Hoops Upside Your Head
I only have one word for today's action...
Orlando+6 (buying 2 points)W
Phoenix+6 (buying 1.5 points)W
Philadelphia-4 (buying a hook)L
George Mason-9.5 (JohnMorr08 pick) L
Utah-3 2nd half (added play) W
Rockets-13.5 (added play) nightridah pick L
Boston-3 3rd quarter (added play) W
Philadelphia -1.5 1st quarter (added lay) Karayilan9 pick W
Last edited by cocknocker; 03-08-09 at 08:58 PM.
Other than that i don't see anything that I like. Somebody convince me to take another game!
UTA@TOR+5.5 Line: 208.5
ORL+3.5@BOS Line: 198
PHX+6.5@SAS Line: 220
NYK+4.5@NJN Line: 220
MEM+13@HOU Line: 194
DEN@SAC+7 Line: 212
PICKS: UTA, HOU, DEN, HOU MEM UNDER, DEN SAC UNDER
UTA. Utah has been the hottest team with 10 Ws in their streak. Its going to be an 11 winning streak tomorrow as they look to rout Toronto which has been struggling throughout the whole season.
HOU. Houston just had some rest while Memphis lost a hard fought game against the Sixers. Houston looks to take advantage of this lowly Memphis team, and they'd probably blow them out tomorrow.3
DEN. Denver looks to gain a win after losing to the Jazz. In my opinion, Sacramento is one of the 3 worst teams in the league (the other two are Memphis and the Clippers). I see Denver written all over this one.
HOU MEM Under. I think this will be all houston and the line won't reach 194 with just one team scoring more than 90.
DEN SAC Under. The line 212 is just too high with Denver having good defense, and them routing the Kings.
I'll do my best to research more, so I can come up with some more competent picks...
wow you sure sound confident on the magic... i like it...Originally Posted by cocknocker
Are you going to do a write up
i think i see where he's going. it's at 3.5 now, but it appears to have to opened at 4.5. and of course boston is a heavy public favorite.
correct me if i'm wrong here.
I personally like the Denver game, dont rate Sacto at all
Utah Jazz (+4.5) vs Toronto Raptors
The Jazz are a great team when playing against a team with a losing record during the 2nd half of the season the Jazz are 6-2 ATS. The Jazz are also on a huge winning streak right now winning 10 straight games, and in those 10 games they have covered 7 spreads. The Raptors are on a 4 game losing streak right now in which each of the games they failed to cover the spread. The Raptors are horrible when playing against a team with a winning record during the 2nd half of the season going 1-8 ATS, when playing against a team with a winning record for the whole season they are only 10-23 ATS, and versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game they are 8-20 ATS. Over the last 3 seasons the Jazz are 4-1 ATS against the Raptors and they are 5-0 SU against the Raptors. Taking the Jazz here as I expect a huge win over the Raptors.
Denver Nuggets (-6.5) vs Sacramento Kings
Sure the Nuggets haven't played the best over their last 5 games winning only 2 SU, but they have at least covered 3 of their last 5 games. They are playing a Kings team that has started to play better basketball, but has lost 8 of their last 10 games SU. The Kings versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game during the 2nd half of the season are only 2-8 ATS, in home games they are 11-19 ATS, and after scoring 105 points or more they are only 7-12 ATS. The Denver Nuggets after a division game are 7-2 ATS, and as a favorite 24-16 ATS. If you go back and look at the last 3 seasons the Nuggets are 21-9 ATS on Sundays. Rolling with the Nuggets as they should win this game by double digits.
Duke Blue Devils (+8.5) vs North Carolina Tar Heels
North Carolina is a public favorite and also a favorite of the bookies. Over their last 21 games the Tar Heels are a horrible 7-14 ATS, including 5-10 ATS in ACC action, and just 2-5 ATS at home in ACC games. Duke has finally started to play Blue Devil basketball winning 5 games in a row. They also have revenge on their mind as they play a Tar Heels squad that just flat out embarassed them last time they played. How can any team with the talent level of Duke be almost a double digit dog? I feel that the last game between these two teams is going to be on everyones minds as they still take North Carolina as a huge favorite. I am not saying the upset is going to happen in this one and that Duke will pull it off, but they have the talent to make it a possibility. In the end 8 points will just be to much as I see this game being decided by no more than a couple baskets.
Clemson vs Wake Forest (-5)
You have to love Wake Forest and their chances in this game. At home versus Clemson in all the games played since 1997 they are 9-0 SU and 6-3 ATS. Their offense is one of the best in the nation averaging over 81 PPG. At home on the season Wake Forest is 7-3 ATS, and versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games they are 15-1 ATS. If it comes down to FT at the end of a game you know they will make them averaging one of the highest percentages as a team in the NCAA at 70.8%. That all gets added to the fact that this is their last home game and they are going to want to give the fans something special and go out with a bang.
Northwestern (+6) vs Ohio State
I like this game today for the same reasons I liked Michigan yesterday. Northwestern is trying for their first NCAA Tournament appearance EVER. A win today against a tournament bound Buckeye squad would do their tournament resume wonders. It is not a crazy thought that they could win the game outright either as they won the last meeting by 3 points. Today Ohio State is playing for nothing more than seeding against a hungry Northwestern team. The key to this game is how well Northwestern plays defense only giving up 60.4 PPG against an offense that isn't the most outstanding. The Wildcats seem to be the play here in a game that the Wildcats should sneak away with.
Raps 1q
Orlando +3.5 (I think this will go to 5)
Phoenix +6.5
Phoenix/NYI Over 5.5
Double-down on the Rockets tomorrow.
HOU wins 64% of 1st Quarters: Up by an avg. of 1.9 points (even higher at home)
MEM wins 32% of 1st Quarters: Down by an avg. of -2.9 points (even worse on the road)
MEM playing B2B on the road after a last-minute home loss = flat start & no mental presence
HOU at home = one of the hottest teams in the NBA post-ASB
HOU 1Q and 1H Stats since ASB:
3-6: 1Q 23-18 HOU over PHO, 1H 56-46 HOU over PHO
3-3: 1Q 26-20 TOR over HOU, 1H 57-49 HOU over TOR
2-26: 1Q 19-11 HOU over CLE, 1H 45-40 HOU over CLE
2-24: 1Q 31-21 HOU over POR, 1H 60-43 HOU over POR
2-22: 1Q 27-20 HOU over CHA, 1H 44-42 HOU over CHA
2-17: 1Q 27-17 HOU over NJN, 1H 56-40 HOU over NJN
HOU is 5-1 ATS in the 1Q at home since the ASB
HOU is 5-1 ATS in the 1H at home since the ASB
Memphis is far worse (esp. on the road) than any of the 6 teams HOU has played at home since the ASB.
If for any reason, you might think... wait, HOU has 2 key games coming up in DEN and against LAL, and just might be in a spot to overlook the lowly Grizzlies.. think again.. MEM beat HOU in the last two meetings (both in Tennessee). The Rockets will be plenty pumped to keep the winning streak intact as they embarass the grizzle-shnizzles in front of the home crowd early, only to rest the starters late to keep 'em ready for the Nugs and Lakeshow.
Play: HOU -3.5 1Q, HOU -7 1H
Hello, Guy. You don't see anything else that you like except for the Orlando game??Don't mean to knock your capping or picks but why would you pick a competitive game between 2 great teams. The game could swing either way.. Why not play games where there are clear advantages. Good teams against piss poor teams. These games below are steals:
Utah Jazz -5.5 vs Toronto. Toronto is a$$ home and away. They suck monkey nuts. Utah is not the greatest on the road but they have all their pieces back and have owned Toronto in the pass. This game is a clear annihilation by Utah. It is so one sided.
San Antonio ml vs Phoenix. Phoenix has not beaten anyone on the road since the coaching change besides the Clippers. The Suns are not good and San Antonio owns them. San Antonio probably rips Phoenix on the spread but the ml is golden.
Denver -7 vs Sacramento. Denver has blown out Sacramento each and every time they play them and this game should be no different. Defenseless Indiana went to Sacramento and dismantled them. Sacramento is in shambles right now.
Those 3 picks above are far and beyond better than the Orlando pick in my opinion so I can't see how you only see the Orlando pick as the only good pick for you. Maybe me and you just see things different. Good luck...
I tried email no go s here it is http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obu5EV7Emfc I can't show my junior year picks so I will try and use it as my screen saver.
orlando by 10. the fix is in. maybe the under should be thrown in as well.
set your clocks forward.
Last edited by texhooper; 03-08-09 at 01:54 AM.
Nice. Not me on that field that day but I did play monster man which would have been 18 I think. The one that jumped the rout and scored that me with hella tan.
Boston (home team) (buy 3 points) Boston is a lot better than magic. Kevin g. is out. If they could beat the Cleveland, they could beat the magic easily. Orlando wants revenge. I don't think they will get it. I will go with the home team. These guys are better free throw shooters.
Nets (home team) (buy 3 points) I will go for the nets tomorrow. NKY played earlier. They will need rest. I will take the nets. They will bounce back after a loss.
Denver (buy 3 points) Denver is a good team in the nba. They beat the Kings many times b4.
Jazz (buy 3 points) Toronto is the worst team now.
Parlay them all
What is the reason for going with Orlando other than the revenge factor? I see Boston winning the season series 3-1 after the next two games played. GL
Figured I'd post my leans, I dont have time for write ups.
San Antonio-6.5
san ant/phx UNDER 219.5
Utah -5.5
utah/toronto UNDER 209
liking denver to cover on the road, but ill have all day tomarrow to look at that one
im tailing the orlando pick i think without KG boston has a tougher time with superman
NY/NJ under 220 looks decent too, depends if NJ feels like playing defense at home or not
anyways GL hoping for another $$ day
I also want to know too. Boston wants to get back on the top. Cleveland is ranked 1st on the Eastern playoff. Boston wants to take back the lead.
love the rlm thats going on in the orl game
The line will change later.
action 8th Feb
$100 all up
Spurs v Suns U 219.5
NJN v Knicks U 220.5
Rockets v Memphis O 194.5
return $633
any feedback re Rockets v Memphis O 194.5 play
Cheers
AD
NBA
3-2-0
I've been on a slump lately, I feel like shaking things up a bit. I will try something different today. I will post all 3 games which I will be playing today. I hope to turn things around a bit. The goal is to end up above 0.500 at the end of the day. I wager equally on all 3 games. So here goes:
line: uj@tr 208
pick: 208 over
The Jazz do not play defense as well on the road as they do at home. The over is 16-12 for the Jazz on the road this season and 18-14 against teams under 0.500 this season. As for the Raptors, they are hot as hell on the over, going 5-0 in their last 5 outings. The over for the Raptors have been 22-13 against winning teams and 20-9 against good offensive teams. I expect the Jazz to play the pace of Toronto in this game.
line: nyk+4.5@njn
pick: nyk+4.5
The Nets have been doing better ATS on the road rather than at home. They are at a shaky 15-17 ATS at home this season. The Knicks on the other hand are 26-18 ATS as underdogs and 16-12 on the road this season. The Knicks have been red hot lately covering against the powerhouses of Boston and Orlando. I look forward for a letdown from them against a weak but dangerous New York team today.
line: dn@sk+7
pick: dn-7
Like the Nets, the Kings play poorly at home. They are only 11-19 ATS at home this season. The Nuggets are 24-16 ATS playing as favorites this season and 18-15 ATS on the road. Head to head, the Nuggets are 3-0 ATS in the last 3 seasons. I won't be suprised to see Denver rout Sacramento in Arco today as both teams have different goals in mind. Denver playing for playoff positioning while Sacramento playing for lottery positioning. BOL to everyone.
Last edited by pho3nix32; 03-08-09 at 05:36 AM.
ok nice day again with the 7 pt teaser, now 2-0, maybe thats my thing after all, cause I just checked my picks for the last week and most of the time I was off 4 or 5 pts, so the teaser might be the way to go too for me:
anyway 3 team 7pt teaser (-120) of the day: Orl +11, Nyk +11.5, Pho +13.5 but still waiting for an extra .5 here and there and I think I should get it
Bos -3.5 would be my pick, but I just cant, it looks too good to be true and as it will be a close game I will tease orl, no way they loose by more than 10 in that one
NYK +4.5, they sucked yesterday but they play a NJ which they are 4-2 ATS and SU, I even think the NYK can win the game, or at least keep it close, tease is on
Pho +6.5, horrible on the road so far but they improved and always kept it close, but they actually play SA pretty good on the road as they are 4-1-1 ATS add 7pts and I think they will cover
thats for the teaser.
i also take the trap game of the day with Uta -5.5, but I really hoped Tor would turn it around the other night against Mia but they just played flat out horrible ... utah is 5-2 ATS and SU against Tor .... only thing thats scary is that it is an early game on the east coast, so utah might start a liitle bit flat out of the gate, so a 1st qtr play on Tor could be a nice alternative, but i just have to take the hot team vs the ice cold team here ... hopefully utah wont look ahead as this is probably the easiest game they have on their road
trip
Hous 1st qtr ML and ATS looks nice .... a good one against a bad one... plus b2b for mem ... hou should roll
thinking about that Denver game (maybe 1st qtr play), but I think I have already enough action for today...
7pt teaser: ORL, NYK, PHO (-120)
Utah -5.5
Hou 1st qtr ML and spread
GL everyone
Boston -3.5 is the pick today
vs Cle it was also only -1.5 and too good to be true (15-0 for home teams etc...) and it cashed easily.
boston needs this win too bad orlando is 3rd anyways so.
1 play for you CK...
There is no spread yet BUT Towson have grossly overahieved winning 2 straight games as a dog to get the the CAA semi-final. There they'll meet George Mason. Towson will be playing it's 3rd game in 3 days. George Mason is already a much better team - and at this poiint they'll be playing against some VERY tired legs of an overachiever.
Again, no spread just yet but I may be laying the points here.
George Mason -
CK, I know my picks probably don' matter 2 u but I am going to throw them out there for you to do some quick research on. Yesterday I went 7-2 in college n hit a two teamer.
I came up with something and it has been working. The last two days I have gone 10 and 3. I know it is not posted but I wouldn't lie to you. I am not on here to gain glory or a following. I just want to win some bread.
This is what I have already booked:
Troy PK
Ball State-8
Western Kentucky-9.5
I am leaning Wisconsin. Matter of fact that will get booked. I am just waiting to see if some squares jump on that line. I see the public is starting to bite.
U r a vet so I know u won't tail blindly. This is just for you since you asked. Now I must give my lungs their breakfast and put up my son's swing up.
Good day to all and good luck.
John, didn't look at that game yet because of no spread but I am on it. It falls into my criteria. I have a vendetta. Towson upset my pick of Northeastern yesterday. That game stayed close all night with Towson leading most of the game. I layed 10.5. I am definitely booking this one.
George Mason-9 projected
Utah-5.5
Utah
7-3 record last 10 games ATS...
4-6 record last 10 road games...
Lost ATS 3x in a row only twice this year...they have lost the last 2 games ATS...
On a 10 Game win streak...can you say momentum.......
Toronto
on a downhill spiral losing 4 out of the last 5 games SU and ATS.
They have played Utah 2x this year and have lost both times SU and ATS.
They were both in Utah, but I don't see Utah's road woes affecting their play today especially against the Raptors...
BOL and have a blessed and profitable day....Dogg
booked teaser:
Orl +11
NYK +12
Pho +13
Trends on the Jazz Over Bet
Look at these trends for the Utah game, especially your call for the over bet.I've been on a slump lately, I feel like shaking things up a bit. I will try something different today. I will post all 3 games which I will be playing today. I hope to turn things around a bit. The goal is to end up above 0.500 at the end of the day. I wager equally on all 3 games. So here goes:
line: uj@tr 208
pick: 208 over
The Jazz do not play defense as well on the road as they do at home. The over is 16-12 for the Jazz on the road this season and 18-14 against teams under 0.500 this season. As for the Raptors, they are hot as hell on the over, going 5-0 in their last 5 outings. The over for the Raptors have been 22-13 against winning teams and 20-9 against good offensive teams. I expect the Jazz to play the pace of Toronto in this game.
line: nyk+4.5@njn
pick: nyk+4.5
The Nets have been doing better ATS on the road rather than at home. They are at a shaky 15-17 ATS at home this season. The Knicks on the other hand are 26-18 ATS as underdogs and 16-12 on the road this season. The Knicks have been red hot lately covering against the powerhouses of Boston and Orlando. I look forward for a letdown from them against a weak but dangerous New York team today.
line: dn@sk+7
pick: dn-7
Like the Nets, the Kings play poorly at home. They are only 11-19 ATS at home this season. The Nuggets are 24-16 ATS playing as favorites this season and 18-15 ATS on the road. Head to head, the Nuggets are 3-0 ATS in the last 3 seasons. I won't be suprised to see Denver rout Sacramento in Arco today as both teams have different goals in mind. Denver playing for playoff positioning while Sacramento playing for lottery positioning. BOL to everyone.
UTAH is 4-1 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
UTAH is 5-0 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Last edited by Dana4U; 03-08-09 at 10:23 AM. Reason: clarification
Denver -7
Both times they played this season, the Nuggets won by double-digits, scoring 118 points in each of those games More of the same tonight, as Denver is angling for home court.
It doesn't look like Kenyon Martin is going to play, with back spasms. I like the depth behind Martin in the Nuggets frontcourt ie Petro, Anderson, Balkman, and Kleiza. The Kings frontline is suspect Thompson is just a rookie, and Garcia is hardly a consistent threat).
But we know the true disparity in this contest comes at the small forward position, and in the backcourt. The trifecta of Anthony, Billups, and Smith can and will dominate their couterpart on the Kings. Sure, Martin will get his, but after him, the Kings have NO ONE.
-Sac is 7-18 ATS in their last 25 home games.
-The road team in this series is 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings...
The fact Denver has been struggling on the road, only serves to further focus this Denver team, as they may looked past the Kings if they were winning.
Something to consider for this raptor vs utah game is that Utah is 2 hours behind Toronto to begin with.. So the 12:30 game for the jazz is like 10:30 am in utah, slap on the extra hour for the time difference and the jazz are playing like its 9:30 am.. we'll see how that goes over
And of those last 5 games that went UNDER, only ONE (their last meeting, in December) went OVER 200 (they totaled 201 in that contest, in Utah).Look at these trends for the Utah game, especially your call for the over bet.
UTAH is 4-1 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
UTAH is 5-0 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
BUT, the total has gone OVER in Toronto's last 5 games.
Toronto's offence is much more run and gun now since Jay Triano stepped in. Marion especially is trying to push the pace so i expect more points on the board then we've previously seen.. much like the last few games..
Boys- enjoy the feedback you all give on this daily thread, you've helped me out in the past. Some good players on this thread. Wanted to share something (for what its worth):
Mich.State (-5.5 or -6) vs Purdue.
Senior Day is big at MSU and they claim (on media interviews) they are burning for revenge after being embarrassed in West Lafayette. Add the fact that Purdue is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road-trips: I'm laying the pts.
WINNER!
Last edited by MeatMan73; 03-08-09 at 01:28 PM. Reason: forgot info
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