[suicidekings]

I put in 4 future wagers to win each conference 1 long shot and then the 1 I believe will win each conference. For the East taking Chiacgo Bulls +275 and my long shot is Milwaukee Bucks +5000. In the Western Conference Oklahoma City Thunder +275 and my long shot is Golden State Warriors +3000. I really believe Chicago and OKC are the 2 best teams in each conference so those came easy. For my long shots in the east I love Milwaukee defensively and with a healthy Andrew Bogut they are only better also they have an added offensive player in Stephen Jackson just hope all the negatives of his game don't cancel out his scoring. Brandon Jennings is also becoming a very good point guard and should only get better with both of the above mentioned players helping him. I really love the bucks bench too with Carlos Delfino and Ersan Ilyasova being able to provide scoring from the bench. Now onto the Western Conference Long shot the Golden State Warriors. I absolutely love both of the guards with Monta Ellis and Stephen Curry this IMO is the best 1-2 scoring threat in the league. David Lee was a big disappointment last year for the warriors and I could see him having a bounce back year here with Monta Ellis back healthy it just allows everyone on the team to have less pressure on them to score. Speaking of disappointments Center Andris Biedrins was a total non factor for most of the season last year as well. I believe Louis Amundson will be a big addition to the bench as well. Both of these are long shots but worth a shot IMO.

Golden State's got some great talent on the team with Curry/Ellis/Lee, but they need a change in attitude with respect to their style of play. I love a team that can get steals and score fastbreak points, but if they can't apply defensive pressure in the halfcourt, they'll have trouble. In short, they have to learn how to defend without fouling and not rely on tempo so much. I think going out and picking up a couple of strong defensive veterans for the team would be the best possible thing they could do. Basically what Tony Allen did for Memphis. That's what they need.

[Goat Milk]

Golden State's got some great talent on the team with Curry/Ellis/Lee, but they need a change in attitude with respect to their style of play. I love a team that can get steals and score fastbreak points, but if they can't apply defensive pressure in the halfcourt, they'll have trouble. In short, they have to learn how to defend without fouling and not rely on tempo so much. I think going out and picking up a couple of strong defensive veterans for the team would be the best possible thing they could do. Basically what Tony Allen did for Memphis. That's what they need.

Golden State isn't that team anymore with this coach. They play defense now.

Anyone that thinks the Bucks will win a conference with their team is nuts. They will be lucky to get a 6 seed. Things like that don't happen in the nba guy. It's not college sports. If I were a bookie I would give you plus 20,000 and tell you $100 minimum bet. Might as well burn your bill.

[Goat Milk]

yeah oChRoNiCo don't put money on the bucks to win the east. its not happening.

[suicidekings]

what were the preseason odds on the mavs last year?

+2500 for the Mavs. +1600 for the Thunder. +16,000 for the Grizz. +2400 for the Bulls.

+280 for the Lakers. +160 for the Heat.

If you took any of the first four for a unit you made money via hedging and didn't give a crap who actually won. Not so with the blue-chip Heat and Lakers and their meager payouts.

[suicidekings]

Golden State isn't that team anymore with this coach. They play defense now. Anyone that thinks the Bucks will win a conference with their team is nuts. They will be lucky to get a 6 seed. Things like that don't happen in the nba guy. It's not college sports. If I were a bookie I would give you plus 20,000 and tell you $100 minimum bet. Might as well burn your bill.

You may be right, but I'll believe it when I see it.

And the Bucks are down to +11663 after starting over +16,000. Stop thinking about it as a single bet and look at them as leverage to make other bets later... Like insurance.

[kobstopa]

a nice starting thread for us to get going,
I am not a fan of future bet myself so my comment to follow won't reflect on these bet but just in general
I think Memphis Grizzlies will off to a slow start as in past season & then look out for their road win record, this team have such great depth of talent for a small market team;
1. 2 best 1 on 1 defenders/veteran in Tony Allen & Shane Battier
2. I like Greivis Vazquez, and Hamed Haddadi these guys are big time scorers in their own right to have such a small minutes in this league

in the west we should see a big improvement in
LA Clippers & Minnesota, they will be under estimate & will be a good ATS cover in various spots.
Phoenix will have a solid record & continue to play well against most .500 teams

in the East,
I like the heats as a ATS cover machine & I hope they will acquire Dalembert =great cover for under's ATS as they will a team not so easy to score against.

the rest we'll see how it develops as season progress, there will be a bit more back to back games for teams to play; this will be a big factor for teams lack in depth with injuries to handle themselves, and some are work in progress with their changes, the best team suited this profile I think

-Denver (a big chunk of their players are off the map at oversea as mentioned above, George Karl is a decent coach whom might improvise)
-Charlotte
-Toronto craptor
-Houston
-Utah

gl

[GTS925]

Ah, good point about Houston. But, Denver lost their roster to China? When did this happen? When I click on roster for ESPN under Denver I still see all their killer players/benchers: Afflalo, Anderson, Nene, Chandler, Gallo, Harrington, Lawson, Martin, JR, and new addition andre miller. Who am I missing? 140:1 seems like ridiculous value

Kenyon Martin, Wilson Chandler and JR Smith is stuck in China while Nene will most likely leave the team.

Good luck SK, thank you for starting a thread. I value your sharp opinions highly.

[suicidekings]

Kenyon Martin, Wilson Chandler and JR Smith is stuck in China while Nene will most likely leave the team. Good luck SK, thank you for starting a thread. I value your sharp opinions highly.

Yeah, Denver without Nene and Kenyon Martin are going to have serious trouble on interior defense. Mozgov & Koufos are both young and inexperienced.

[GTS925]

They still have the Birdman.

[suicidekings]

They still have the Birdman.

And he's a good player, but Kenyon Martin is VERY important to this team. His efforts have been glossed over by Melo/Billups in past seasons, but he's critical to the fastbreak offense in terms of rebounding and quick outlet passes, as well as offensive rebounding. There will be chemistry issues early as new players are asked to step into this role for 32 minutes a game, and when Denver is forced into a slower halfcourt offense, they live or die by the 3pt shot. They need those fastbreak points to be a winning team.

Lawson will do a good job of running the point full time, and will create shots for Afflalo/Gallinari/Harrington, but even with Anderson in there, their rebounding and interior chemistry are completely disrupted. They probably finish 3rd in the Northwest behind Portland and Oklahoma City.

[riffraff24]

Just by looking at the early XMas lines, i like Miami pk vs Dallas (revenge game...but i hope Miami loses), Bulls +3 vs Lakers (Lakers are notorious for blowing XMas games...not saying they'll lose but it will at least be close), Thunder -6.5 vs Magic (too many question marks in Orlando. I think Durant and Westbrook put on a opening day show), and Clippers +2 (i think Clips will be much improved this year and Blake should do what Blake does. GS is GS). No opinion on the Celtics/Knicks game. My opinion will probably change on some but that's what i'd take this second.

[suicidekings]

Just by looking at the early XMas lines, i like Miami pk vs Dallas (revenge game...but i hope Miami loses), Bulls +3 vs Lakers (Lakers are notorious for blowing XMas games...not saying they'll lose but it will at least be close), Thunder -6.5 vs Magic (too many question marks in Orlando. I think Durant and Westbrook put on a opening day show), and Clippers +2 (i think Clips will be much improved this year and Blake should do what Blake does. GS is GS). No opinion on the Celtics/Knicks game. My opinion will probably change on some but that's what i'd take this second.

I think given that opening day coincides with Xmas day, we have to throw out all the things we thought about the Xmas day games. The road team and the Under is normally money in the Xmas games, but I wouldn't be surprised if 4 of the 5 games go over.

I like the Knicks the most out of all of the games. They get payback for the sweep.

[Goat Milk]

Suicide,

There's no point for me to bet the Bucks to win the Eastern Conference because it will never happen. I've been watching the nba every day its on for two decades and teams like this will never, ever win a conference. That is just burning your money.

Portland on the other hand has a legitimate chance to win the conference IF they can stay healthy. Portland is one of the most talented teams from top to bottom in the NBA, and that line is what you call value. Not the Bucks, or the Pacers, or teams like that. Miami is going to be sitting atop the Eastern conference in terms of regular season wins this year.

[suicidekings]

Suicide, There's no point for me to bet the Bucks to win the Eastern Conference because it will never happen. I've been watching the nba every day its on for two decades and teams like this will never, ever win a conference. That is just burning your money. Portland on the other hand has a legitimate chance to win the conference IF they can stay healthy. Portland is one of the most talented teams from top to bottom in the NBA, and that line is what you call value. Not the Bucks, or the Pacers, or teams like that. Miami is going to be sitting atop the Eastern conference in terms of regular season wins this year.

I think you seem to be under the impression that I give a shit about this claim. Also, I didn't put a future on the Bucks or Pacers, so why do you feel the need to lecture me about them? All I said was the Bucks' future odds got knocked down at Pinny, and that when you're holding a 150-1 ticket on a team, all they need to do is get to the playoffs to give you leverage to bet the other side. That's all. It's not a basketball argument. It's math.

No more high-handed bullshit in here. I'm not interested in having petty arguments on the internet...

[riffraff24]

[bryant81]

I think you seem to be under the impression that I give a shit about this claim. Also, I didn't put a future on the Bucks or Pacers, so why do you feel the need to lecture me about them? All I said was the Bucks' future odds got knocked down at Pinny, and that when you're holding a 150-1 ticket on a team, all they need to do is get to the playoffs to give you leverage to bet the other side. That's all. It's not a basketball argument. It's math.

No more high-handed bullshit in here. I'm not interested in having petty arguments on the internet...

pwned

[suicidekings]

The complete schedule came out today, so I put it into Excel in both a list and table format for my own capping. Here's a simplified copy for anyone that's interested. Hope it's helpful.

[BigBurk]

Thanks SK. Busy with my own sheets as well so this saves me some time.

[riffraff24]

The complete schedule came out today, so I put it into Excel in both a list and table format for my own capping. Here's a simplified copy for anyone that's interested. Hope it's helpful.

Thanks bro! BTW - im now in agreement with you on Lakers xmas day. -2.5

[suicidekings]

Thanks bro! BTW - im now in agreement with you on Lakers xmas day. -2.5

I'm not on the Lakers. That team could be a mess to start the year with a new HC and potential roster changes. Too early to tell. I will enjoy watching it though.

[ebemiss]

The complete schedule came out today, so I put it into Excel in both a list and table format for my own capping. Here's a simplified copy for anyone that's interested. Hope it's helpful.

Thanks I appreciate it. Very helpful

[Love The Action]

I think given that opening day coincides with Xmas day, we have to throw out all the things we thought about the Xmas day games. The road team and the Under is normally money in the Xmas games, but I wouldn't be surprised if 4 of the 5 games go over.

I like the Knicks the most out of all of the games. They get payback for the sweep.

I agree about the Knicks, however, neither of us really knows what these final rosters are going to look like. Which leads me to ask why you think the opening day games will go over without knowing the projected totals and who might be playing?

Do you think the shortened schedule and preseason will lead to more scoring this year or less scoring?

[Love The Action]

The complete schedule came out today, so I put it into Excel in both a list and table format for my own capping. Here's a simplified copy for anyone that's interested. Hope it's helpful.

Thanks SK...you just saved me some time (if I could give you more points I would)

[suicidekings]

I agree about the Knicks, however, neither of us really knows what these final rosters are going to look like. Which leads me to ask why you think the opening day games will go over without knowing the projected totals and who might be playing? Do you think the shortened schedule and preseason will lead to more scoring this year or less scoring?

Over the course of the season, it will all even out, but I would think short training camps will leave defense lagging for the majority of teams and early overs will hit. This problem is just going to be amplified for teams that have a higher turnover of players and/or a coaching change. New players are more likely to try to prove themselves offensively and new coaches = defensive lapses as players are not going to be totally up to speed on how the HCs want things done.

I can't really back any of this up with data, and I really only have strong opinions on 2 sides and zero totals on opening day. The Over lean is just a hunch.

[JR007]

have not seen the schedule as yet, but read .somewhere, that due to the abbreviated schedule there are lots of back to backs

[suicidekings]

have not seen the schedule as yet, but read .somewhere, that due to the abbreviated schedule there are lots of back to backs

It basically redefines what we think of as tight scheduling for the NBA. Forty four B2B2Bs, many of which result in 5 games in 6 days stretches (and 7 in 9s). The Thunder have a 9 in 15 span that includes 2 separate trips to the west coast and ends at elevation in Utah on a B2B. It's crazy.

[JR007]

It basically redefines what we think of as tight scheduling for the NBA. Forty four B2B2Bs, many of which result in 5 games in 6 days stretches (and 7 in 9s). The Thunder have a 9 in 15 span that includes 2 separate trips to the west coast and ends at elevation in Utah on a B2B. It's crazy.

good research....thank you..be interesting to see how the oddsmakers deal with it especially after the first month or so.....also wonder how many of these teams are out of shape...younger teams might fare better in these back to backs as well

[suicidekings]

Preseason games are up! Only 9 days until the Christmas games. I don't normally bet on preseason games in any sport, but I'm going to have a little fun with some of these games. IMO, there's some serious mispricing on a few of the early lines.

Philadelphia -1.5 (-108) x0.5
Memphis -8.5 (-113) x0.5

I originally liked the Bulls too, but I sat on the -2.5 yesterday only to see it go to -4 today. Honestly, the Pacers seem like a good bet at this number. They will be playing to a high intensity tonight with the chance to play the Bulls at home in their first showing of the year.

Memphis opened at -12.5 at Pinnacle only to see the majority of the market open much lower today. The Hornets training camp has been a mess from day 1, and I just don't think they have a chance tonight of keeping it close with two distinct groups (Clippers imports & Hornets incumbents) having minimal practice time together. Jarret Jack is not a starting PG, and Eric Gordon will not be in sync with the team. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, have had a very well settled roster for most of the training camp period, returning the majority of their team from last season and will be looking to build momentum going into the regular season with a strong performance in front of the home crowd that saw them have an amazing playoff run last year.

I think the Sixers are in a similar place as the Grizz with respect to returning a roster that's almost identical to last year's team. They had a very well settled training camp where everyone on the team knows their role and will be looking to build momentum going into the year. Washington is not in bad shape to start the season but they are a very young team that's going to continue to go through growing pains this year.

Saturday Leans: Kings +4.5, Bucks +5
Sunday Leans: Heat -7.5

[suicidekings]

Philadelphia -1.5 (-108) x0.5
Memphis -8.5 (-113) x0.5

Bulls 2H -1.5 (+100) x0.5

[suicidekings]

During a stoppage of play in Indiana, yelled from the stands:

"Kyle Korver!... Remember when you used to be good in high school?..."

Ha!

[suicidekings]

Philadelphia -1.5 (-108) x0.5
Bulls 2H -1.5 (+100) x0.5
Memphis -8.5 (-113) x0.5

NBA Preseason: 2-1 (+0.44u)

[suicidekings]

Saturday, Dec. 17

Kings +4.5 (-105) x0.5

[ragiche]

BOL this season.

[Dexter]

thank you for that spreadsheet. very helpful.

[Love The Action]

NBA Preseason: 2-1 (+0.44u)

You must really be tired with football to be hitting up preseason

Good luck, hope you kill it