[suicidekings]

Christmas came early this year when we found out the NBA season was going to be saved after all. This is very good news for me because the NBA is by far my best sport and I can't wait for games to start up. Even though we have over a month to go until the season begins, I'm making this thread now because today was the day that Pinnacle released their NBA Futures for who wins the NBA Championship in 2012. I don't go crazy on futures, and there's obviously a lot still going on with Free Agency, but a few of them stood out to me as teams that I expect a lot from this year and I expect at least one of these teams to make a legitimate run towards the Western Conference Final.

Memphis Grizzlies (+4603) x1

The Grizz are going to be even better this year with Rudy Gay back and the addition of Josh Selby, this team is going to be very tough to beat this year. From a game by game perspective, they won't have a lot of value because their huge ATS performance last year will result in steep lines but I like them to have a big season and a top 4 seed in the West. This team is absolutely stacked and their strong performance in the 2011 playoffs will pay huge dividends this season as they saw bench players like Greivis Vazquez, Sam Young, and OJ Mayo really emerge in high-pressure situations down the stretch. Additionally, that playoff run will bolster their fan support making their home attendance better and provide a winning atmosphere that they didn't really have until late last season.

Portland Trailblazers (+3989) x1

This team has so much talent and the addition of Raymond Felton makes them even more dangerous. Their biggest concerns over the last two years have revolved around health, but with the extended offseason, the Blazers are coming into this year with their best chance at having a great year in a while. The starting squad that includes LaMarcus Aldridge, Gerald Wallace, Marcus Camby, Wesley Matthews & Raymond Felton is a very good core group. I'm fairly certain Brandon Roy will be gone via the Amnesty clause and with that additional flexibility in cap space and the continued improvement of Patty Mills and Nicholas Batum gives the Blazers a legit chance to prosper this year. With Roy & Oden largely out of the picture now, and Fernandez gone from the team, the Blazers have addressed their most problematic injury risks and moved towards a much more durable roster. The Blazers fan base is one of the best in the NBA and the Rose Garden is one of the toughest venues for visiting teams to play at. This season is going to give the Blazer faithful a lot to be excited about.

--------------------------------------

Western Conference Breakdown

The reason I'm focusing on these two teams is that in my opinion, the West is wide open this year for an upstart team to steal the Western Conference Title. The perennial leaders of the conference (Lakers, Mavs & Spurs) are all undergoing a significant amount of change as LA gets a new coach and will likely see shuffling of roster through free agency. The Spurs youth movement is in it's most precarious year where we're probably still going to see big minutes from the big 3, but poorer results from Manu and Duncan. The Mavs are coming off an NBA title in the year that was really their best chance at success for the Kidd/Dirk era and I doubt they'll be able to reproduce those results as the urgency is no longer there for them to win before it's too late.

Then there's the OKC Thunder, who are arguably the favourite to really make an impact this season in the West, but their future odds are sitting around 8-1 and that's too low for me. I would rather bet them game to game. Beyond that, there are a lot of teams in transition or just not where they need to be to be competitive in 2012, but for the reasons mentioned above, I feel like the West will have an even greater degree of parity than last season and Portland and Memphis are the teams that are in the best position to capitalize on that open field.

[suicidekings]

Eastern Conference Breakdown

Free Agency will have an even bigger impact in the East than the West, IMO. We're still looking at the Heat and the Bulls as the heavy favourites to reach the ECF. I don't feel comfortable laying future odds on anyone else and the prices on the Bulls/Heat make it not worth laying any futures in the East. I do see a ton of value on a couple of teams to bet on a game by game basis and depending on what the season win totals come out as, I might have a couple of plays.

My favourite team to make an impact in the East is actually the Indiana Pacers. They're loaded with young talent, and they're a huge team that can really play tough on the interior against anyone. They're short on depth but if they can build around Hansborough/Hibbert/Granger, they can win their share of games this year and if they continue to be undervalued by the public, they could be a very profitable ATS team this season that should be capable of another playoff berth in 2012.

Again, free agency will likely have a dramatic impact on the Heat/Bulls/Hawks/Magic. Howard's departure combined with the moronic moves the Magic GM has made recently will cripple them for a year or two as they rebuild. The Hawks have the potential to make something of themselves if they can get over the attitude problems that the team has exhibited and build off their moderate success in the 2011 playoffs with a couple of key acquisitions in the offseason (but I doubt they will). The Celtics will be a bust this year, unless they pull off a miracle in free agency, and I think that's extremely unlikely. Their youth movement is just in its infancy, however I do think that Jeff Green is going to prove his worth this year and Big Baby will be a starter eventually. I think the Knicks will be in the running for a 3/4 berth in the East but will fall short of really competing for the ECF because of a lack of depth and an idiot coach.

The only other team that could make an impact on the power balance in the East is the New Jersey Nets. Mikhail Prokhorov will go after Howard aggressively, and failing that will look to make other additions to bolster this team's chances to be competitive. He's eager to build a team around Deron Williams and is on a timeline to build this franchise. That will probably translate to a lot of money spent on a few players that aren't worth it, but you never know what might happen with Williams actively recruiting. In a shorter, more condensed season it's entirely possible that injuries could knock out the bigger contenders and leave opportunity for a team like this to prosper. But I'm not putting money on that.

[djpremier36]

BOL as usual bro.

Only thing I disagree on is that Rivers is an idiot coach. His first year coaching in the league he took a bunch of cast offs and took them to the playoffs.

I noticed that Pinnacle has the X-mas day spreads out already.

[suicidekings]

BOL as usual bro. Only thing I disagree on is that Rivers is an idiot coach. His first year coaching in the league he took a bunch of cast offs and took them to the playoffs. I noticed that Pinnacle has the X-mas day spreads out already.

No, Rivers is one of the best in the league. I was referring to Mike D'Antoni for the Knicks. I really don't like how he manages his players.

And yeah, those games look good. I love the Knicks, Heat and Bulls for opening day, but way too early to play them as so much could change with free agency.

[djpremier36]

Conventional thinking would say the Heat get revenge against the Mavs but I'm not so sure. I like the Bulls too but not much value in that play as of yet.

[suicidekings]

Conventional thinking would say the Heat get revenge against the Mavs but I'm not so sure. I like the Bulls too but not much value in that play as of yet.

My favourite angle in all of sports betting is playing a team when they get the chance to get revenge against the team that knocked them out of the playoffs the previous year. I only use it in the first couple weeks of the season and is at it's best in the NBA. The Knicks and the Heat both qualify and the lines being set at pk in both games imply a slant towards these teams, IMO, when the Mavs and Celtics should conventionally be favoured in both cases. I think the Knicks are the best play on the board for the day.

But again, too early to say. Lots of changes to come.

[riffraff24]

Looking forward to this thread suicide. I'll try to curb my bias since i'm a Lakers homer that lives 2 blocks from Staples Center. Good luck this NBA season!

[suicidekings]

Looking forward to this thread suicide. I'll try to curb my bias since i'm a Lakers homer that lives 2 blocks from Staples Center. Good luck this NBA season!

Two blocks? Lucky man. I live in Vancouver and the management group that owns and operates the Canucks has been pursuing an NBA franchise to move here for a couple of years. So I'm hoping...

[dontbuythehook]

When I saw 40:1 on portland i broke out in laughter. Portland sucks SK, and trading andre miller for a shooting guard wannabe pointguard is the worst decision they've ever made. Would have been way better off trading roy for felton and some money, or something. Grizzlies future looks good, but I really like sacramento/houston/denver futures a lot more at 140:1 and higher.

[suicidekings]

When I saw 40:1 on portland i broke out in laughter. Portland sucks SK, and trading andre miller for a shooting guard wannabe pointguard is the worst decision they've ever made. Would have been way better off trading roy for felton and some money, or something. Grizzlies future looks good, but I really like sacramento/houston/denver futures a lot more at 140:1 and higher.

I can live with Felton here, given the Blazers have become less of a halfcourt team and more of a team that likes to run, with Lamarcus and Wallace in the fast break. Felton brings better 3pt shooting to the table at the PG position. Roy should be let go via the amnesty clause soon, which makes more economic sense for the Blazers than a trade as Roy's big contract and knees would have cut into what would be coming back to the Blazers, regardless of where he was traded. They also have Nolan Smith coming in out of Duke and Patty Mills off the bench to take minutes if Felton fails.

The Blazers have made the playoffs for the last three seasons despite serious injury issues, and considering this team is now likely to be the healthiest they've had in a while and has continuity in their coaching, the Blazers are a good bet this season. With salary cap space freed up by Roy's departure, I expect Portland to make another move in free agency as well to help round out the team.

Houston is going through a coaching change and Denver is down a lot of talent to the Chinese Basketball Association. Both will struggle to make the playoffs. Sacramento is a team that could be a GREAT bet early in the year with the finish they had last year and the new additions of Hickson/Fredette but they still don't play defense...

[Dexter]

SK - do you have a link to the schedules for this season? Not even sure if they are finalized yet.

[suicidekings]

SK - do you have a link to the schedules for this season? Not even sure if they are finalized yet.

I usually pull schedule data from the USAToday website, but it's not posted yet. When it is, I'll grab it and publish an excel version like I did for NCAAB.

[lyon804]

Word SK!

[JR007]

nice write up !!!!!!!

[MARVEL]

Can't wait! *Bart Scott*

[hawley]

SK starting a season thread is great news for SBR

Guy is incredibly sharp.

[suicidekings]

Memphis Grizzlies (+4603) x1
Portland Trailblazers (+3989) x1

Grizzlies got HAMMERED today. Down to +2300 at Pinnacle...

Portland has risen up to +4500, but it happens. New Jersey has dropped from +9000 to +5000, OKC down to +682 from +840, Detroit down from +23,000 to +16,000, and a few other big +25,000 lines fluctuating. The Bulls line has only dropped slightly from +800 to +750. Might be a few more but I don't remember the openers.

[dontbuythehook]

I can live with Felton here, given the Blazers have become less of a halfcourt team and more of a team that likes to run, with Lamarcus and Wallace in the fast break. Felton brings better 3pt shooting to the table at the PG position. Roy should be let go via the amnesty clause soon, which makes more economic sense for the Blazers than a trade as Roy's big contract and knees would have cut into what would be coming back to the Blazers, regardless of where he was traded. They also have Nolan Smith coming in out of Duke and Patty Mills off the bench to take minutes if Felton fails.

The Blazers have made the playoffs for the last three seasons despite serious injury issues, and considering this team is now likely to be the healthiest they've had in a while and has continuity in their coaching, the Blazers are a good bet this season. With salary cap space freed up by Roy's departure, I expect Portland to make another move in free agency as well to help round out the team.

Houston is going through a coaching change and Denver is down a lot of talent to the Chinese Basketball Association. Both will struggle to make the playoffs. Sacramento is a team that could be a GREAT bet early in the year with the finish they had last year and the new additions of Hickson/Fredette but they still don't play defense...

Ah, good point about Houston. But, Denver lost their roster to China? When did this happen? When I click on roster for ESPN under Denver I still see all their killer players/benchers: Afflalo, Anderson, Nene, Chandler, Gallo, Harrington, Lawson, Martin, JR, and new addition andre miller. Who am I missing? 140:1 seems like ridiculous value

[Goat Milk]

Your bets look pretty good, but they won't win. I know you like to try to find value in things to guarantee yourself money in the long run, but as you know, teams like that don't win NBA championships.

You know why? Because its a 7 game series. It is a different animal. The Miami Heat are essentially guaranteed to win the East yet again this year unless something drastic happens with Howard, and I have a feeling that's why you're not betting against them.

The west is more of a toss up and I like the value you found on those two teams. Portland is a well coached team and they COULD BE dangerous IF healthy. If HEALTHY, this team could be a contender for sure.

Don'tbuytheHook, please you will know your place in time. Don't argue with me about basketball. Andre Miller is a fukking joke. He couldn't hit a jumpshot to save his life when it matters in the 4th quarter. Guy can only get to the cup if guarded by a weak pg. Felton is much better. Miller is washed up.

[suicidekings]

Your bets look pretty good, but they won't win. I know you like to try to find value in things to guarantee yourself money in the long run, but as you know, teams like that don't win NBA championships.

You know why? Because its a 7 game series. It is a different animal. The Miami Heat are essentially guaranteed to win the East yet again this year unless something drastic happens with Howard, and I have a feeling that's why you're not betting against them.

The west is more of a toss up and I like the value you found on those two teams. Portland is a well coached team and they COULD BE dangerous IF healthy. If HEALTHY, this team could be a contender for sure.

Don'tbuytheHook, please you will know your place in time. Don't argue with me about basketball. Andre Miller is a fukking joke. He couldn't hit a jumpshot to save his life when it matters in the 4th quarter. Guy can only get to the cup if guarded by a weak pg. Felton is much better. Miller is washed up.

Oh, I know it's a remote possibility. But it's not unrealistic in the West to have a messed up year where parity rules and traditional powers aren't so influential, so why not put a small amount on a lottery ticket. Realistically if one of them makes it even to the semi-final I can partially hedge on the series price for a profit. A trip to the final with a 40/45 to 1 ticket is just free money.

I feel like Portland has made significant steps towards having a much healthier season this year. Perennial injury problems have largely been removed with Fernandez gone, Oden not under contract (only a qualifying offer), and Roy likely headed out via the amnesty clause. Camby is the only guy left that has shown signs of frailty and one player is very manageable by controlling his minutes. I'm really hoping they make another move during free agency.

And yeah, regarding the East, it will likely come down to a Bulls/Heat ECF again, with a very large chance that the Heat win it all this year. +230 on the Heat just isn't worth it though to tie up funds for that long. Maybe the season win totals will present something interesting.

[dontbuythehook]

Don'tbuytheHook, please you will know your place in time. Don't argue with me about basketball. Andre Miller is a fukking joke. He couldn't hit a jumpshot to save his life when it matters in the 4th quarter. Guy can only get to the cup if guarded by a weak pg. Felton is much better. Miller is washed up.

Goat. While I won't sit here and try to reason to you why you suck at analysis, I will however point out how much you suck at sports gambling. You posted 20 losers in a row during the NBA season and there are several regular posters on here who, if willing, can go back and dig them up for you if you need proof. You are a complete joke and after how many essays you write it just makes you look like a plant by the books, really. You are sooooooooooo bad at this it's beyond a joke now. You're actually better @ NFL tbh, which really makes your NBA look that much worse.

[Goat Milk]

Goat. While I won't sit here and try to reason to you why you suck at analysis, I will however point out how much you suck at sports gambling. You posted 20 losers in a row during the NBA season and there are several regular posters on here who, if willing, can go back and dig them up for you if you need proof. You are a complete joke and after how many essays you write it just makes you look like a plant by the books, really. You are sooooooooooo bad at this it's beyond a joke now. You're actually better @ NFL tbh, which really makes your NBA look that much worse.

Bro I went 3-16. I have this documented. Following that losing streak, I went on a 10-0run. Everything is documented fool. I predicted nearly the entire NBA playoffs for two years straight on this site and was hitting 56% on my nba plays before I got banned for about 2 months for excessive swearing. Yeah I lost a lot on the Heat game 6 and that finals series but so what. You make up all your shit. In another thread you said I predicted 0 games correctly in that series when everyone here knows I hammered the Heat in game 1, 3, and 6 (loss). Get your facts straight.

There is no one that can analyze an NBA game like me. Not even on ESPN. SUre there are better cappers but when playoffs come around I usually know what happens. I guess you weren't around the year before last when I called Boston coming outa the east even as huge underdogs and LA beating them in the finals in 7 for a sick payout.

Now, you can either zip your trap or I can pay someone some betpoints to figure out who's ghost you are. Slither back into your cave you peasant.

[dontbuythehook]

Goat. If you are so good at NBA then how come I have never read a single post of someone complimenting you on this? It's because you are a ******* joke LOL

[JR007]

Goatie....i see you haven't changed

[BigBurk]

Bol on the thread this season! Might start one myself, not sure yet!

[Love The Action]

SK starting a season thread is great news for SBR

Guy is incredibly sharp.

^This^

GL SK

[suicidekings]

...

...

I can make you guys your own thread to argue in if you like... Could you tone it down in here though? Any basketball predictions, commentary, etc are 100% welcome from everyone in here, but the bickering about who's the better capper a month before the season starts doesn't really add much value. Thanks guys

[forloveofthegame]

really like the portland play. very tough to beat at home. at that value even if they make it past the first round your looking at a sizeable profit. too much talent on that roster top to bottom with batum and rudy getting super hot at any time.

i think memphis will fade and miss the playoffs this year. good team but dont see them squeezing in. i would have to say one of my sleeper teams are the pistons. funny you say they went from 23k to 16k on pinny. man if i would have seen that 23k i would have took a stab there.

[suicidekings]

really like the portland play. very tough to beat at home. at that value even if they make it past the first round your looking at a sizeable profit. too much talent on that roster top to bottom with batum and rudy getting super hot at any time.

i think memphis will fade and miss the playoffs this year. good team but dont see them squeezing in. i would have to say one of my sleeper teams are the pistons. funny you say they went from 23k to 16k on pinny. man if i would have seen that 23k i would have took a stab there.

Admittedly, I don't have a solid read on the Pistons yet, but I feel like starting a rookie at point guard is going to lead to growing pains even for an otherwise established team. There's a lot up in the air for them right now with respect to who will be on their opening day roster. What's the plan with Hamilton and Prince?

[forloveofthegame]

Admittedly, I don't have a solid read on the Pistons yet, but I feel like starting a rookie at point guard is going to lead to growing pains even for an otherwise established team. There's a lot up in the air for them right now with respect to who will be on their opening day roster. What's the plan with Hamilton and Prince?

Isnt stuckey ther point? i think he is very underrated and gets overlooked. they need to hold on to prince but i dont mind if hamilton walks. your right about everything being up in the air for them tho. i think if they can keep stuckey and prince and pick up a solid guy like caron i could see them holding there own. at +23k i think there is value there even if a longshot.

I love the way philly plays as well be interesting to see if they mature after another year as a team.

[suicidekings]

Isnt stuckey ther point? i think he is very underrated and gets overlooked. they need to hold on to prince but i dont mind if hamilton walks. your right about everything being up in the air for them tho. i think if they can keep stuckey and prince and pick up a solid guy like caron i could see them holding there own. at +23k i think there is value there even if a longshot.

I love the way philly plays as well be interesting to see if they mature after another year as a team.

Brandon Knight is listed as their starting PG on depth charts at the moment, and it would appear they plan on moving Stuckey to SG if he re-signs. That could easily fall apart if Knight doesn't start very strong, but they're pretty high on him right now.

Funny enough, the team I really like this year is Indiana. They seem willing to put a little money into the free agent market (or trades) and have so much young talent to work with. Could be a very undervalued team. I was so impressed with how they played in the Bulls series last year. Outmatched, but they had a lot to be proud about in how they played. Sacramento too, down the stretch. That team is going to be a playoff team inside 2 years, maybe this year.

December 9 is going to be a very interesting day.

[oChRoNiCo]

I put in 4 future wagers to win each conference 1 long shot and then the 1 I believe will win each conference. For the East taking Chiacgo Bulls +275 and my long shot is Milwaukee Bucks +5000. In the Western Conference Oklahoma City Thunder +275 and my long shot is Golden State Warriors +3000. I really believe Chicago and OKC are the 2 best teams in each conference so those came easy. For my long shots in the east I love Milwaukee defensively and with a healthy Andrew Bogut they are only better also they have an added offensive player in Stephen Jackson just hope all the negatives of his game don't cancel out his scoring. Brandon Jennings is also becoming a very good point guard and should only get better with both of the above mentioned players helping him. I really love the bucks bench too with Carlos Delfino and Ersan Ilyasova being able to provide scoring from the bench. Now onto the Western Conference Long shot the Golden State Warriors. I absolutely love both of the guards with Monta Ellis and Stephen Curry this IMO is the best 1-2 scoring threat in the league. David Lee was a big disappointment last year for the warriors and I could see him having a bounce back year here with Monta Ellis back healthy it just allows everyone on the team to have less pressure on them to score. Speaking of disappointments Center Andris Biedrins was a total non factor for most of the season last year as well. I believe Louis Amundson will be a big addition to the bench as well. Both of these are long shots but worth a shot IMO.

[Dexter]

Your bets look pretty good, but they won't win. I know you like to try to find value in things to guarantee yourself money in the long run, but as you know, teams like that don't win NBA championships.

You know why? Because its a 7 game series. It is a different animal.

what were the preseason odds on the mavs last year?

[Dexter]

Don'tbuytheHook, please you will know your place in time. Don't argue with me about basketball. Andre Miller is a fukking joke. He couldn't hit a jumpshot to save his life when it matters in the 4th quarter. Guy can only get to the cup if guarded by a weak pg. Felton is much better. Miller is washed up.

cmon man - partner with me in my fantasy league - i need your NBA expertise!!

[Dexter]

There is no one that can analyze an NBA game like me. Not even on ESPN. SUre there are better cappers but when playoffs come around I usually know what happens. I guess you weren't around the year before last when I called Boston coming outa the east even as huge underdogs and LA beating them in the finals in 7 for a sick payout.

wow - you cant make this shit up.

GM - will we be blessed with a season long thread?