[cocknocker]

Well now, today is a great day full of promise and possibilities. I don't have many plays for today, but I think tat I have a pretty strong card.

I have noticed that the Pistons have been playing a little beter of late, and I also have noticed that the Clippers are playing a little worse as well. the baron Davis vs. Mike Dunleavy Sr. thing is boiling over, Ricky Davis is smoking blunts for days, and Zach Randolph is not in that good of health. Somehow, I don't think that those things concern the Pistons who have had problems of their own. The Clippers best player is the equal of Allen Iverson, and the buck stops there. the Pistons are too deep and to strong of a team to let his one get away. i am sure that they would like to get off to a good start to this west coast trip. The Clips are just in the way. No spread will be able to be enough in this one. They are 5-0 straight up and 4-1 ats in games in Tinsletown against the Clips.

Pistons-5 (projected) NO PLAY RASHEED AND RIP ARE OUT 8:22 AM

The lakers have been horrible against the spread this yar as anyone knows. Portlnad has always been great ats in games in LA. They are 4-1 ats in games in LA against the Lakers in recent form, and have quietly been one of the best bets in basketball in this situation. I will have to ride with the Blazers and the points in this one hoping the Kobe doesn't go berzerk.

Portland+11 (projected)

Other notables: Boston 1st half -6 (I will be playing this one for sure!)


NFL Football

Ravens-3 (Heavy)

Vikings/Eagles under 41


Okay ladies and gentlemen, what do you have for us?

[Dexter]

the numbers all point to balt here, as they have been great ats on the road while the fish have been really bad at home ats. throw in the ravens confidence with having already won in this stadium back on 10/19/08, and this pick seems easy. but watching the rookie ryan on the road vs a veteran qb has me hesitant with the dolphins (like arizona) also having their own solid veteran signal caller in chad - not as a 3.5 pt favorite - i cant lay that number and instead will just go with the low. the ravens were going over at a shocking clip earlier in the year, but have now gone back to playing games low (3 of last 4) while the dolphins have gone under in 6 of 8 home games this year.

*under ravens
__________________________
i'm not a fan of laying road points in the nfl (esp in the playoffs) but i have to in this spot for one very simple reason. with my money, i trust mcnabb>jackson any day of the week.

*eagles
_______________________
mavs are much better on the road this year at 11-5 ats compared to home. hot of late having won 3 in a row su, while the grizzlies have lost 3 in a row su/ats. when good teams go in a slide, i like to look for value at a bounce back. the grizzlies are not a good team and could reel off 7-8 in a row ats losses...the mavs last 2 visits to memphis have resulted in 15 and 19 pt wins.

*mavs
________________________
no line on this game yet, but with roy out, i have mine set at lakers -11. they should win this one easily sunday night. the blazers are a brutal 6-11 ats on the road, and are a good play against with their do it all guard out. unlike some other stars in the league, roys presence will not only be missed scoring, but also as a distributor (5 assists per game). he's a play-maker and i could see the blazers being completely out of rhythm all night. lakers are back to covering having won 4 in a row su and ats. they already dismantled the blazers by 20 at home in october, and a similar result is expected here.

*lakers

[shoebox]

CK Flacco does not scare you any? I like Balt to but not heavy, due to the rookie in his first playoff game.
thoughts??

[Dana4U]

CK - what about buying a half point on the Ravens to get them off the magic 3?

[cocknocker]

I didn't make my wager based upon Flacco as an individual. I made my play based upon the entire team as a whole. The Ravens just have a better team than the Dolphins. And no Flacco does not scare me. if anything in his short time he impresses me more than Pennington does in big games. I also think that the Baltimore defense is not fazed by the Wildcat formation either. I don't think that Miami will make enough offensive plays to beat the Ravens. Meanwhile the Dolphins don't like to play smashmouth eams either. Baltimore is nothing if not a smashmouth team. they have the recipe for success in the playoffs. A good running game, a good defense that creates many turnovers, and good special teams. the Dolphins are a lot of questions, whichis why tey are a surprise team to begin with. No one knows exactly why they are winning, but they are.

[cocknocker]

Dana4u,

My book has them at 3.5, so i already bought a hook. i think that they will win by more than a field goal anyway. The 3 is a safety net in casethis thing comes down to a squeaker, which i don't think it will. Miami doesn't play well from behind.

[shoebox]

CK,
Good point they did take care of me HUGE during the pc play with the boys (thanks again)...

[Dana4U]

Mine just moved to Ravens -3.5 as well.

[BigMoneyMan]

This is crazy but my early leans are for every away team NBA and NFL.

[danrman]

hey ck what about buying a hook and getting boston at -10.. arent they going to want to show up at mecca

[Dfjay9]

I've got LA -7 so +11 sounds good to me!

Also got Detroit capped at -5 so that spread is right on the money imo

Ravens pound the fins though!

Also leaning Boston

[cocknocker]

Alright, according to power ranking numbers, I was spot on with my projected line of Detroit-5, but I was a little off with the Lakers, as they should be -7 in this game, but of course since this is the Lakers we're talking about, I think that the Blazers will get nothing less than double digits in this matchup. One thing that we do know is that they will keep fighting until the end, and give the Lakers a good contest. The lkaers for their part are covering again going 4-0 ats with the newly adjusted lines that are much smaller and manageable. The average spread has been Lakers-6 over these past 4 games, helped out a bit by them being a 2.5 underdog to the Hornets, in a game that of course they won. I wll be very interested in what he spread will be for this game, and i wish that I had time to prepare for it more, but of course we won't get it until very early Sunday morning.

[cocknocker]

danrman,

I can't go against the Celtics, but that is a whole lot of points to be favored by on the road in any atmosphere. of course the Garden will be rocking with Knicks supporters and it being a Sunday game. The power rankings have the Celtics winning by 13, so you may be alright on that one. But i am going for strong trends on Sunday..trends that are 4-1 or 5-0 if i can get them, and the Celtics are 5-0 straight up and ats in games in New York. They did badly on their last road trip, so I expect for them to give maximum effort in this game to correct the mistakes made while on their west coast road trip. An interesting spin on that game may be to take the Celtics in the 1st half as the average 1st half scores for these two are 55.5 Boston and 45.6 New York. As stated, the Celtics would want to get off to a much better start in this roadie. I think that i'm gonna get me some of it too, and slice the game in half and take the Celtics in the 1st half myself! So I will change my card now to include that play!

[isiah121]

CK, seems like the Celtics and Lakers are trying to prove to each other that one team is better than another, by beating other teams. Celtics blowed off Portland at celtics home, so would Lakers want to do the same to the Trailblazers? Seems like they want to prove that can are better than the Celtics.

[alittlemoresound]

ive been messing with alot of 3rd 4th Q bets. If the lakers are up 20 at the half. take the blazers 2nd half. no matter what. It happens in most games.
The team that is getting blown out usually wins the 3rd and 4th Q almost all the time.

I had the lakers big against the jazz, so i think the blazers might be the same, lakers are getting rbs and putting up points in the paint. defense is good.

[cocknocker]

isiah121,

I don't know what's up with their competition early in the year here, but that does seem to be true. the only thing is that the Blazers despite getting blown off earlier this year playing in LA,tey present matchup problems for the Lakers when on the road usually. It looks like a gimme, but it's generally the rule of thumb to look at the previous history of the tams in a given situation. If i cash my Celtics 1st half wager, i may evn lay off of the laker game until the 2nd half or just take them in the 1st half if they don't have to be up by double digits. Man I think that te line is going to be ignorant, and chase me off of that play for some reason.

alittlemoresound,

I do like that approach only when the team that is behind is a team with a .600 or so record. Anythig close to .400 or so is a no play forme, as those teams show a penchant for packing it in and day dreaming about the nightclubs they will go to after the game. Or another bad situation is when the team is either playing a back to back with travel involved or overtime in the previous game. Boston and Cleveland however, keep the pedal to the metal in the 2nd half no matter how much they are up!

[cocknocker]

College Basketball Parlay of the Day

Northern Arizona+2.5
Duke-14 (1 point buy)
Cal+2.5 (hook buy)
Cincy+10.5 (hook buy)
Evansville-2.5

$25 to win $510.19

[woodyman]

hey guys just thought it might be time to introduce myself. You may have seen me posting just recently, i am new to this site and looking to learn a lot more about sports betting, In particular NBA as that is what i most enjoy. I have learnt a heap in the last couple of weeks i have been on here. Oh Yeah i am from Melbourne Australia which is sometimes tough with the time delay. Have been betting on NBA for years but not really knowing what im doing just for fun, but now i want to win some money Have doubled my bankroll in the last week since reading here. Thanks to all for a great forum.

[W8LIFTER]

Sunday's Picks!
NFL
Miami Dolphins +3.5
Philadelphia Eagles -3
NBA
Dallas Mavericks -6.5
NCAAB
Michigan -1.5
North Carolina -21.5

[danrman]

info for everybody:currently 68% of the public is on baltimore and a whopping 79% is on the eagles.. im going w/ baltimore and if they cover and especially if they cover and it goes over, i think minn and the under would be worth plays as the house trys to get their money back.. the eagles suck on the road and are overrated imo.. tarvaris jackson might suprise and in his last 5 games 4 of them have gone under.. just some food for thought if you will... will comment further on this thread later sunday for those who care

[danrman]

ck,, i was looking over some things being a baltimore backer on sun. and i wanted to mention that in the regular season game between miami and balt., miami was preparing for division rival buffalo the next week and balt. did not get miami's A game.. still like balt. but not as much as miami's A game is coming sun...

[cocknocker]

danrman,

I have been up for a while studying this matchup. What I do know is that Miami can't handle Baltimore's A game and that is for sure. Baltimore will create two or more turnovers and give the offense a short field, if not take one back to the house themselves. I looked at the schedules and Baltimore had by far the tougher schedule. I'll put hell of crab cakes on that, homes. I think that Miami represents a step down in the level of competition that they have faced. Miami didn't play the Steelers twice or the Colts or Tennessee or the Giants or Philly. Matter of fact, they had a relatively easy schedule in terms of the winning percentage of the teams that they faced.

The truth is, Miami is not in the Ravens' league. They should be happy to have made the playoffs but the buck stops here. Baltimore wins 24-10

[NBA Hero]

ck,
baron davis might not even play, he missed last game with bruised tailbone. seldom used hart played instead

[peterpan19]

locked in first play of the day, Dal -6 (bought a half point to be safe)
Power ratings have the mavs by 8
Mavs are 9-1 ATS in Mem
Mem cant bring anything right now, below 40% Fg for 2 consecutive games, Dallas is 11-5 ATS on the road
enough said, GO DALLAS

[indeed]

Magic @ Raptors .. the line isn't set yet, but JO and Calderon may not play in this game ..

[BigMoneyMan]

How does it happen? Ck is the mother ****er come damm from behind. If you think your out your not 3 large you ****. damm its unreal.

[peterpan19]

anything below -8 in the Tor game and ORL is a nice play

[africanroller]

I have been waiting for the Ravens game all week and have laid the load -3.

I will wait and see how that goes before I lay another wager


Also if you havnt checked out my hockey thread, take a peek.

[peterpan19]

africanroller
great job with this NHL picks, do you have some for today ?

[showtime2000]

Looking good today Ck!

[bkny2cnc]

ck i am new to posting but i really enjoy your thread.just wanted to thank you and the missus for the pc play(houston)and bobcats last night.i like the ravens today and bol to all

[Dexter]

i know a lot of people are on the ravens today, but again, this is not the same defense on the road - they give up 21ppg away from baltimore. something to keep in mind....

[billcat]

College Basketball Parlay of the Day

Do you go on line movement for these? Thanks!

[MrSink]

I think Mavs -6.5 against Grizzlies is great play today. Mavs are in 9-1 ATS in Memphis in last games.
I think also Mavs are better pick than yesterdays away win of hornets

[peterpan19]

lines are out: port +11.5
det -5.5
Orl -7