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I've already locked the NO/MEM OVER 191.....but the linemaker knows just like us that the last 10 were over between these two teams....and averaging 208 points!! Consensus is about 65%-70% on the OVER and the line just moved a point??
something fishy or just a gift from the sportsbooks?
cya later
Clippers vs Thunder
Someone mentioned earlier that they felt the Clippers were a strong play tonight. So, I decided to do some research on that game. The OKC Thunder are on course to achieve the worst record by an NBA team in history. Period. Some important ATS trends to note between the two teams:
Games played in OKC/Seattle over the past three seasons:
Clippers are 4-1 ATS, 3-2 SU, the Under is 4/5
In their last four meetings, the average total has been set at 199.1 with an average game score of just over 195pts.
We all know how bad the Thunder are. They've only managed two wins: one over Minnesota, and one over Memphis. They've lost seven straight, but are 5-2 ATS during that stretch and 9-3 ATS in their past 12. OKC has been playing some tough teams lately, and they've been keeping it close.
Loss @ Charlotte 97-103 (spread +8.5)
Loss @ Orlando 89-98 (spread +13)
Loss @ Miami 99-105 (spread +11)
Loss to GSW 102-112 (spread PK)
Loss to Memphis 102-108 (spread -2)
Loss @ Dallas 99-103 (spread 13)
Loss @ San Antonio 104-109 (spread 16.5)
The way I see it, the Thunder are starting to play better. Why? They're able to keep games close, even against tough opponents like Orlando, Dallas, and the Spurs. Their FG% over the past seven losses has averaged 47.1%, been as low as 42.7% against GSW, and as high as 54.5% against the Bobcats. To me, this looks like a team that is desperate to get back into the win column.
With 76% of 2700 bettors on the Clippers, the line is yet to budge. Take note that the Clippers are 7-2 ATS in their past nine games, and have to make a 2-hour flight to play the Bulls the next day. OKC gets a 3-day break until they play next in Toronto.
One last thing: for a spread of -4.5, a corresponding ML should be roughly -200'ish if I remember correctly. The ML is currently floating around -170 with a spread of -4.5.
Last edited by vassman86; 12-16-08 at 10:48 AM. Reason: made the title bold :)
Lakers are 1-9 as a DD fave. Pretty soon they will gel and start covering but I would take the points good luck tho
Sac +7 first half vs Port
I think they will keep it close, atleast in the first half.
Originally Posted by joanapoker
I dont see any value in betting trends. Good luck tho.
There is definitely value in betting on trends. For example, with the Hornets and Grizzlies, in the past, if you were to look at the trends for the total, and noticed that the over was 5/5, then 6/6, and 7/7, and 8/8, and 9/9, there's plenty of value to be had.
If you guys want to get in on the Portland/Sacramento game, I think now is the time to do it. Line has already moved a full point the other way, meaning Portland is now at -12.5. However, 58% of the bets are on the Kings as I type this. Don't be fooled. Portland is in a good spot to cover at home and Sacramento on a back-to-back. Plus, as CK said, the linesmakers didn't adjust the line even though Portland didn't cover the last time around when Sacramento came to town.
could have been put a lot more friendly-like BUT
i hate to say it and i hope i'm wrong, but i'm starting to think he might be right... i fired early on this pick because now that the horny's are getting back to 4 pt spreads and less they've been covering more, like the did last year. But in regards to last year, memphis played the hornets tough a couple times and they're playing good ball. While they did get blown out once at home and once on the road, they played the hornets into overtime twice, losing by a bucket each time (once in NO, once in MEM). Again, I've already posted because i knew that line was giong to shoot up, but i'm kinda wishing i hadn't... i'm thinking i'll make a small parlay MEM +8 and the over as a little insurance and maybe even a small MEM ML, but for the most part i want to let my pick ride and hope for the best.
Okay, I'm out of here, guys and girls. I have as my personal picks:
Portland-10.5 ( Bought a point)
New Orleans-4 (bought a point last night)
Portland team total to go over 106.5
Other plays from the board that I am taking:
shoebox play: Lakers-12 (bought a point last night)
ManBearPig play Hornets/Memphis over 191 (played last night)
Styles: Charlotte moneyline
Money management.
In order to stay within what I like to put out on a nightly basis, I am only putting $300.00 on each of these games. $1800.00 risked for the evening is enough. I have a roll of $28K or so that I am dealing with. So I only put up about $2000.00 or under a night. On the usual I put up a dime a night total especially if there are only two games that I like. Never more than that unless it's a PC Play. If there were only four wagers, then i would have put up $500.00 each, which is my normal standard play for a entire game spread play. I pay halves for no more than $250.00 and parlays no more than a $25.00 and no less than 5-6 teams on average.
But with the new additional plays I will shorten my bets and take on more games from the board. The objective is to go 4-2. Manage your money, folks! I would like to thank those who gave me those picks in advance. Now let's get paid!
pronk,
I have space for a $200.00 hit- give me a good college pick for the evening. I know it sounds redundant, but I was thinking Tennessee 1st half after two straight defeats and playing at a neutral site in Tennessee. get bac to me and let me know. it comes on late. I'll be back by then
Alright Here Come My Picks,
Mirror CK on
Hornets - 5 - 1 Unit
Lakers - 7 1st Half - 1 Unit - I dont even want to watch garbage play.
Personal Pick
LA Clippers - 4.5 - 1 Units
LA looks like they should have a cover in this situation. They are coming off big wins on Portland and Houston. They also tend to blow out the garbage teams. They beat Minnisota by 23 and Oklahoma by 20 points(in Oklahoma)
Denver +135 ML - .5 Units
First off I dont think the 3 points plays a factor in this game. The Nuggets will win this game or lose by 6+ points. If we are down by 3-4 points we will fire for it all out(think of Carmelo Anthony and JR Smith firing endless shots). Im firing a small wager on the win in this game....I might also add a small parley with the Nuggets and the over. The Nuggets fast break points and Carmelo shooting like he did last year will hit McGrady and Yao on the blindside.
Parlay - Nuggets ML and Over 200 .5 Units
GL to all today.
The Kid,
Correct. The Kings are coming in off of TWIN back to back situations with only one days rest in between, and a Coach getting fired too. They've not had time to sit around and talk about that as a team for absolutely no time. Portland isn't worried about their problems. They've lost three in a row
CK, on the college front, I am thinking to take Portland. They seem like a decent play tonight. and I am wary about Tenn tonite.
Let's see what pronk says.
Thanks CK for your insight. I've been reading and trailing for a couple of weeks now and really appreciate the entire thread. I like how guys give insight on NHL and NFL and no one gets their nose out of joint. Thats what we are all here for to get some insight about games.
The lakers have been driving me CRAZY this year and thats why I am gonna stay away fromt he high number. They have covered only TWICE in the last 10 games and one of those ATS wins (TOR - 11/30 112-99 W (-12 spread) the Raptors outscored the LAL's JV team 8-2 in the last 90 seconds. And their only other DD ATS win this season was against NJ in a blowout on Nov 25th.
Are we all missing something with this team?? is the 1H -7 the play??
Oh and by the way...the Lakers will NOT be beating the Celtics in the Finals!!
I'm actually leaning towards denver at +3 now. The only thing that worries me is their inabillity to defend yao.
Here are my picks and why...
NYK vs LAL - I know the big vs. small angle in taking the Lakers tonite but I feel that NY has the speed advantage conversely.
Nate Rob is a matchup problem and will go for 25. Baby Al is going to be tough to handle for Gasol. Kobe and will get his in the 4th but Bynum will not play much at all. Fisher,Walton and Odom are the wildcards here as I don't see them defending very well.
Lakers win 11 and don't cover the spread...AGAIN!
SAC vs POR - Bottom line is ....if nobody besides Roy and Aldridge score for POR then they can't beat SAC by 12. SAC's starting 5 is respectable with every starter capable of 15 unlike POR. Unless R. Fernandez goes for 25 and dummy Greg Oden gets another 15 and 15...
POR by 9 and don't cover the spread
LAC vs. OKC - Last time out the Clips won by 20. They have Baron Davis vs a rookie. Z-Bo vs. Jeff Green are you kidding? Thorton should get around 18 to help nullify Durant's 25 plus.
LAC by 7 and they do cover
NOH vs MEM - Chris Paul and David West have no equal vs MEM. Mayo and Gay will get their 20-25 range but everyone else will be bottled up. NOH will pick and roll the heck out of MEM back to reality!
NOH by 9 and they do cover
-PREMO
hou stats:
Houston is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Denver
Houston is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Denver
DJP - I actually agree with all your picks and reasoning and would expect the same results. However, that scares me at the same time because everytime I can convince myself of a logical pick the exact opposite happens. The NBA has proved to be quite unpredictable lately and we should always expect the unexpected. I'm only looking for one more play as I'm only playing two tonight. I really like the NO/MEM Over and need another solid pick. I'm having a hard time on this one because they all seem so obvious.
I like the Under in the CHA/CHI game though. Especially what I saw last night from CHA.
The problem with houston is the point. Alston is out of the lineup leaving 6' 0 Brooks to guard 6'3 Billups....huge advantage. Tmac will have to handle the point forward duties. This offense goes through alston. No matter what you think of his skills, he is the creator on this team. Artest is doubtful and yao is probable. Battier is a statue on the offensive end. No Alston= No win -----denver ml
They may have McGrady on Billups to offset that but I'm not sure how Brooks fits in. He probably will come off the bench as he would be undersized at any other position. I'm sure they will have a plan of attack for this. I don't see Denver covering here.The problem with houston is the point. Alston is out of the lineup leaving 6' 0 Brooks to guard 6'3 Billups....huge advantage. Tmac will have to handle the point forward duties. This offense goes through alston. No matter what you think of his skills, he is the creator on this team. Artest is doubtful and yao is probable. Battier is a statue on the offensive end. No Alston= No win -----denver ml
2 strong plays
lakers 1st half
lakers gm
GL
I have a 5 point teaser today and it is my only play!
I have Hornets to win -1.5 and the over for 187.5 ..
6'0" brooks?!? I'm sure he's listed at that somewhere, but i'd be surprised if he's even 5'10" and a frail 5'10" at that. I think he's closer to 5'8" personally, but either way, i'm only reinforcing your point that chauncey can eat him alive. I just don't know if that matters outside of a 7 game series. I think that houston will be more rested, less traveled and in position to dole out revenge... still waiting for any line movements and a public money commitment, but i'm leaning on adding houston to my ticket. The public should be a little sprung on denver with that win in dallas.The problem with houston is the point. Alston is out of the lineup leaving 6' 0 Brooks to guard 6'3 Billups....huge advantage. Tmac will have to handle the point forward duties. This offense goes through alston. No matter what you think of his skills, he is the creator on this team. Artest is doubtful and yao is probable. Battier is a statue on the offensive end. No Alston= No win -----denver ml
I have a similar teaser with
Hornets PK (got when line was at 5 last night)
NO/Memphis over 186
Clippers +.5
Im feelin pretty good about it, lets get it done!
Starting to like the Clippers.
Ive been watching their last 3 games and they are starting to play well. randolph is in a groove and they beleive they can win games now.
Plus OK just doesnt win
Wang, I was being generous with 6' as he probably is closer to 5'9....with that said my point is not so much about him as it is about Alston being out. I would like to see what the rocket record is over the last two years without Alston in the lineup.
yeah... having seen them get blasted by the jazz when alston was out (thanks to deron who has a similar build to chauncy) i think i have to lay off this one.
hornets -4.5
clippers -5
lakers -13
canadiens -110
capitals -165 ??
devils -125
coyotes +110 or over the total 5.5 you decide
blackhawks -115 ??
there you all go now stop over analyzing games
Final plays...
Hornets -4
Clippers -4
Knicks +15 (Bought 1pt)
Bulls -2
Over 192 in Hornets/Grizzlies
Under 224 in Knicks/Lakers
Some plays are parlays and others are straight wagers.
GL Everyone
knicks are a good cover at home
lakers are going to put it on them IMO
@cocknocker
My bad about yesterday, didn't mean to come at you like that. I'm a beginner but I guess you win some and lose some.
adding OKC +5
... small play, but i'm just a little surprised that everyone in the free world is on the clippers of all teams to be laying a pair of FG's ... i'm showing 90% on LAC and the line has moved a mere .5 (and after much struggling) OKC know that this is one of their few good chances at a win and they will at the very least play the clips tight.
also, i peeped the college hoops games and noticed that pronk is calling for a portland win in college hoops, so i will trust him for a small slice
POR +5
Last edited by wangichu; 12-16-08 at 06:11 PM.
Here is what I have on my early card so far. Bulls under and Denver 1st half.
My take on trends is there's only value if the situations are somewhat similar. Mainly coaching and players, some teams simply match up well with others. But you could look at all the trends in the world with say the Celtics of two years ago and very little of them would matter when talking about the Celtics of last year...too big an upgrade in talent for past trends to mean anything.
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