1. #1
    cocknocker
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    Leans for Tuesday 12/16/08

    Bounce back Tuesday Boys and Girls

    What we have here is a failure to communicate, the Maloof brothers wereoverheard saying. Interesting that a couple of brothers who own a casino tht takes lines also are allowed to own a basketball team. That tidbit of information aside, I actually feel sorry for Reggie Theus, fired as coach of the Kings, one of my wife's favorite teams. He was due to get out of town anyway, and I think he is a much better analyst anyway. He should have stayed at that position. Portland has lost so many games ats in a row that I can't keep count. Into town come the Kings as fresh road kill. No need for an extensive write up about this one. The Blazers ar rested, yelled at and well practiced. This should amount to a blowout victory over the Kings who are on the back end of a back to back with travel involved. The Kings are exactly the kind of team that the Blazers run rough shod over. The have no defense whatsoever.

    Blazers-9.5 (I would like for the line to go down to 10.5 so i can make it 9.5)

    The Hornets OWN the Grizzlies and you better get this one early as the line will go up for sure once people read the ats record of the Grizzlies at home versus teh Hornets, who are trying to make a move and climb up the division ladder. San Antonio and Houston are already taking care of business. The Hornets will follow uit and bang out a victoryover the upstart Grizzlies who are suddenly winning some games in a row. Nothing like testing themselves against a playoff bound Hornets squad.

    Hornets- 4 buying apoint to get onto the key number

    This is an added play that I just came up with talking it over with shoebox. I listen to the board and make plays learned from the knowledge gained from the board when the board has something good to offer. I wish that othr crybabies would follow suit and give me something to play when I do have a slump for a few days. But anyway, later on down the board here you will find a converstion between us that contains this same information.

    The Lakers are fresh and the Knicks are not. The Knicks are coming infrom Phoenix late. They managed to hang close with them until the end when Steve Nash broke their backs. Phoenix is in the Mountain Time zone,and Los Angeles is in the Pacific Time zone. So in other words the Knicks are crossing time zones on the back end of a back to back, and playing the lakers who haven't covered a spread in what 6 games? Their average lines for their last two home games was 16 for crying out loud. This 13 point spread is still hella large, but with the magic of being able to buy a point, I can make the spread a much more manageable 12 points, which is actually abut where I capped this game out to (10.5). 12 seems to be the magic number as the last time teh Lakers covered at home was when they had a 12 point line against the Raptors. The Lakers are one of the deepest teams in the NBA, and New York will get no breaks when the Lakers go to the bench, as they are 10 deep, whereas the Knicks had only 8 people hit the floor last night in Phoenix. you know you're in trouble when your center (David Lee) is only a few inches taller than Kobe. WTF is he gonna do when Andrew Bynum and Pao Gasol are coming at him ALL night?

    Lakers-12 (I am playing this one right now to get rid of all the monkey business involved with trying to watch the line movement all day.)

    I won't be around tomorrow for a long spell. I have a wake to attend and must put on the black suit for my uncle in law. He was a great guy. Always kept his hundreds on the inside of his bankroll, and was from wherever he was at. I think that in retrospect, the same things that made him wonderful were also the same things that killed him. The drinking, the drugs in the 80's, and so on. He was a flash in a pan, and didn't make it to see 55 years old. Anyway enough about that. May the board be joyous and may everyone share their picks and why thy picked what they picked. As always good luck ladies and gentlemen. I should be back around 6 or so. have to go to Napa.

    And remember the golden rule manage your money so that you can feel good the next morning win or lose.
    Last edited by cocknocker; 12-16-08 at 12:08 AM.

  2. #2
    rb4033
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  3. #3
    nick2060
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    sorry to hear about your loss, good luck on the picks, Portland is 0-2 on 3 days rest so far, which is the case in this game, havent made a play but 11.5 looks like too many points at this point

  4. #4
    isiah121
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    CK, what about the Denver @ Houston? Will this be a good play taking Rockets?

  5. #5
    Devon
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    Sorry to hear about your loss, man. As good old Dr Seuss put it - Don't cry because it's over. Smile because it happened.

    Defintely on the Hornets with you, still having a look at the other plays.

  6. #6
    Broncos9798
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    Sorry to hear about your loss CK...thanks for the writeup as always.

  7. #7
    Broncos9798
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    Isiah,

    I highly reccomend your not going against the Nuggets right now. If you remove the blowout that the Spurs laid on us we are turning into one of the hottest teams in basketball. Its your money but I would be very cautious.

    Quote Originally Posted by isiah121 View Post
    CK, what about the Denver @ Houston? Will this be a good play taking Rockets?

  8. #8
    W0lfy
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    Sorry about your loss CK. Feeling you on those Hornets. GL ALL!

  9. #9
    shoebox
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    NY just played there hearts out for Antoni, tomorrow will be another story. Tired legs means lower shooting percentage and thats all the knicks have.
    Im taking the Lakers first half and the under for the game.
    CK what cha think??

  10. #10
    CTS5
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    Don't bet any money on the lakers right now. They are way too inconsistant, and they play with absolutely no heart. I believe there is something going on without the lakers inside the organization involving phil jackson. He is not liked by his players, and they may want him out. Just one of my random theories.

  11. #11
    CTS5
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    CK,

    I dont know about the blazers pick at such a high spread. Sacramento is not that bad of a team, and people think that just because their coach was fired theyre going to slack it. I think that's a common misconception. I actually defintely like the hornets like at -5, and ciipperes -4.5. Clippers are starting to make a small run at it, and I believe that they will easily take care of durant and the thunder.

  12. #12
    MarkHammond
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    i can hear the bitchin from u guys now when memphis continues there win streak and shocks the hornets. dont be mad at ck do ur own research

  13. #13
    nonsense48
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    ck, peace be with you and your wife at this time of your wife's uncle's passing. remember the good times with him and celebrate his passing. here's hoping his new journey is a good one. safe trip and God bless.

  14. #14
    shoebox
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    Quote Originally Posted by CTS5 View Post
    Don't bet any money on the lakers right now. They are way too inconsistant, and they play with absolutely no heart. I believe there is something going on without the lakers inside the organization involving phil jackson. He is not liked by his players, and they may want him out. Just one of my random theories.
    Im on em first half BIG!!
    Second half is where they play like a bunch of bitches

  15. #15
    CTS5
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    Mark, you really think hornets will lose to memphis? With what you just said, and the public jumping all over the hornets, maybe waiting till that line goes up to like 7 or 8, and taking the plus with memphis? I havent really seen memphis play lately. I know they blew out miami, but miami is garbage anyway.

  16. #16
    MarkHammond
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    Quote Originally Posted by CTS5 View Post
    Mark, you really think hornets will lose to memphis? With what you just said, and the public jumping all over the hornets, maybe waiting till that line goes up to like 7 or 8, and taking the plus with memphis? I havent really seen memphis play lately. I know they blew out miami, but miami is garbage anyway.
    I dont know who will win but the line was set there knowing they would get the majority of bets on the Hornets. Memphis has won 5 straight since getting blown the fuk out by guess who....The Hornets. So not only do we have a team playing well but we have a revenge angle. I think the Hornets can def win but I wouldnt be surprised if it was by 3 or 4.


    Also think Knicks/Lakers goes over. Knicks shot 5-34 threes tonight. They will shoot better tommorow and the tired legs will mean even less defense being played.

  17. #17
    natelli1
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    for those of you looking into the hornets/grizzlies game ...
    the over is 10-0 in the last 10 that these teams have played with the over being listed at an average of 197.8 and the totals for the game have averaged 213.8 and as for the hornets themselves they are only 6-4 ats in the last 10(9-1SU) vs memphis.
    another stat to look at is that in these 10 meetings the hornets have averaged 53.3 in the 1st half while memphis has averaged 47.9(for the game/NOH 111.1;MEM102.7)
    the hornets do look very good in this game and the over/under is not posted yet(at least on my website). but i will strongly consider playing the over if it is not too high and a definite play that i will take will be new orleans 1st half

    if anyone else is looking at this game and hitting any other useful info plaese let me know!

  18. #18
    natelli1
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    keep an eye on tyson chandler is he plays it will mean so much more for the hornets on the defensive end
    by the way this line will skyrocket, opened at 4.5 and is already up to 5.5 and its not even morning yet

  19. #19
    cocknocker
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    I just played the Hornets-4 buying a point to get back on the key number. So that play is now official and done. Looks like we go head to head on that MarkHammond! Good luck either way. The Grizzlies have improved, but they aren't that good yet i nmy own personal opinion. I'll take the Hornets to win by two baskets.

    shoebox,

    As far as the Lakers, I actually think that they may cover in this game, but for the whole game spread. It's the Knicks third road game, and a back end of a back to back game at that, which is a bad thing when in another time zone than the night before. The only reason why I didn't make this pick public is because the Lakers have blown so many big leads that I can't even count.

    But with the time zone thing coupled with the back to back mixed in there, I give a BIG advantage to the Lakers, but only if the line stays where it is. I just can't take them a favored by 16 or some old ridicuous number like that. Hopefully the public still stinging from the Phoenix loss will flip money on the Knicks again and make the line go down. What we are looking for out of the Lakers lines is for them to go down a basket or so and for the public to get ALL the way on the other side. Already with a spread of only 13, I can see that the linesmaker is giving a little bit. The change will be subtle, but when it does happen we have to have our finger on the pulse of the Lakers. If the line stays at 13, or dips ANYTHING below that, i willslam the Lakers in this game for the full game spread, no quarters, no halves, no anything other than that.

    The Blazers line itsself is what caught my eye about this game.They were favored by 11.5 the last time they faced the Kings at home on 11/24/08, and the Kings promptly covered in that game, only losing by 1 point. But despite all of the problems that the Blazers have had covering in games, the line was made the same for this game,which means that the linemaker fully believes that the Blazers ARE that much better than the Kings coming in on the back end of a back to back. the Blazers are 0-7 ats in their last 7 games. They are on 3 days rest, and my favorite point, they are coming off of 3 straight losses. The rotations will be correct for this game, and nate's crew will jump all over the Kings in the 2nd half. I fulley expect tat the Kings may actually cover the 1st half due to the carry over effect, but the Blazer will come out looking for blood against th Kings as teh Kings have had their number at home and they are 1-4 ats against them in Oregon. The fear of that alone will make Nate McMillan push the point home that they can't overlook this team. The Blazers are on a season's longest losing streak. It won't continue. I like them with the large number, bceasue it was identical to what the number was teh last time they met the Kings at home, and not lower (well at least to start with)

  20. #20
    headphones.ink
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    Quote Originally Posted by natelli1 View Post
    for those of you looking into the hornets/grizzlies game ...
    the over is 10-0 in the last 10 that these teams have played with the over being listed at an average of 197.8 and the totals for the game have averaged 213.8 and as for the hornets themselves they are only 6-4 ats in the last 10(9-1SU) vs memphis.
    another stat to look at is that in these 10 meetings the hornets have averaged 53.3 in the 1st half while memphis has averaged 47.9(for the game/NOH 111.1;MEM102.7)
    the hornets do look very good in this game and the over/under is not posted yet(at least on my website). but i will strongly consider playing the over if it is not too high and a definite play that i will take will be new orleans 1st half

    if anyone else is looking at this game and hitting any other useful info plaese let me know!
    Just the obvious that Memphis now have OJ Mayo playing very well and above expectation. Marc Gasol is also above expectation.

    Having said that I also really like NO in this game. Even without Chandler they still match up well with Memphis I think.
    Posey can guard one Memphis scoring threat and for NO both Paul and West should have a field day and Peja plenty of open shots.

  21. #21
    shoebox
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    CK with that being said the first half is getting more and more value. I think this might just be my strongest plays in a while. Time zone adjustments, tired legs, long road trip just makes sense to pound em first half!! The books wont even know what hit em..


    Lakers first half
    Lakers gm
    Last edited by shoebox; 12-15-08 at 11:50 PM.

  22. #22
    spal2811
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    i just took a 3 team teaser with

    hornets PK
    NO/Memphis over 186
    Clippers +.5

    This seems pretty sound to me as the clippers have looked good recently and have a good track record against OK city

    also, the last 5 games between NO and Memphis have gone over and memphis has won 6 su and ats which cant continue can it?

  23. #23
    cocknocker
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    You know what, I have thought about it as much as I need to think about it. The Lakers are a good call in this situation. I am goiong to revise my plays to include them. I am buying a point though and making my spread 12 for the game tonight.

  24. #24
    nonsense48
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    well folks, miami lost, phoenix pushes and the eagles over pushes. not a good week but better days are comin'... ck, peace be with you and your wife at this time for the loss of your wifes' uncle. celebrate his life and the good memories that you have of him. safe trip and God bless you and yours.

  25. #25
    nonsense48
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    i've posted 3 reply comments and they showed for just a flash and then disappeared. can anyone explain this for me. am i doing something wrong?

  26. #26
    cocknocker
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    I like the Blazers better at 9.5 I am hoping that the public will drive the line down to 10.5 so that I can buy a point and get under 10. If i can get them at anything under 10, that would be golden. With Sacramento blowing out the T-Wolves last night, it just may be a possibility.

  27. #27
    cocknocker
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    That's right, Lakers baby! And I haven't bet on them in a long time. But this is a good situation for them to get the cover.

  28. #28
    nonsense48
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    ck, i'm new on this forum and i've been watching as a guest for a couple of weeks now. i must commend you on the time and effort you put in to your posts. win or lose it's very impressive. safe trip to napa and enjoy the view. remember the good times with the uncle and celebrate his passing. peace to you and yours brother. God bless

  29. #29
    nonsense48
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    Quote Originally Posted by cocknocker View Post
    You know what, I have thought about it as much as I need to think about it. The Lakers are a good call in this situation. I am goiong to revise my plays to include them. I am buying a point though and making my spread 12 for the game tonight.
    i don't think you'll even need to buy the point. lakes are due to cover

  30. #30
    nonsense48
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    y do my posts show for only a minute or so? what am i doing wrong? any advice from anyone?

  31. #31
    WestsidePete
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    Quote Originally Posted by CTS5 View Post
    Don't bet any money on the lakers right now. They are way too inconsistant, and they play with absolutely no heart. I believe there is something going on without the lakers inside the organization involving phil jackson. He is not liked by his players, and they may want him out. Just one of my random theories.
    Not liked by his players?? you are way off here...you obviously don't live in LA...there was a big preseason story out here how happy Buss is with him as coach and he'd like to sign him to an extention...they are 20-3 and you say they play with no heart?? the lines are way off and they aren't blowing teams out but no heart would mean losses correct??

  32. #32
    WestsidePete
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    CK, I heard this today on the radio in LA that Phil Jackson was complaining about the Christmas day game with the Celtics as the Lakers play 4 games in 5 days...come home at 3am on Christmas Eve then play Boston on Christmas...something to think about later...

  33. #33
    nonsense48
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    ck... advice. i've posted 3 replys to you and they show for just a few moments and disappear. can you explain what i may be doing wrong. i'm wearing out my typing index finger. thanks in advance. peace.

  34. #34
    haserfauld
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    CK, what about a small teaser:

    hornets -.5
    hornets/grizzlies over 186
    clippers +1
    Lakers -8

    +200

    How does that sound. Too much involved?

  35. #35
    jayc88
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    Quote Originally Posted by haserfauld View Post
    CK, what about a small teaser:

    hornets -.5
    hornets/grizzlies over 186
    clippers +1
    Lakers -8

    +200

    How does that sound. Too much involved?
    don't waste your money on teasers

    just play your picks straight up for 1 u

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