1. 08-17-11 03:53 PM #176
    ebemiss
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    Record

    50-36 (+16.00)

    2nd half experiment

    3-4 (-0.68)

    Thursday Projections

    Location Predicted Line
    at Washington Mystics Minnesota Lynx 80 Washington Mystics 73 -7
    Neutral Minnesota Lynx 81 Washington Mystics 72 -9
    at Minnesota Lynx Minnesota Lynx 83 Washington Mystics 70 -13


    Average Pace of Game 153.2
    Away Team Controls Pace 152.2
    Home Team Controls Pace 154.3

    Location Predicted Line
    at New York Liberty New York Liberty 76 Connecticut Sun 76 0
    Neutral Connecticut Sun 77 New York Liberty 74 -3
    at Connecticut Sun Connecticut Sun 79 New York Liberty 73 -6


    Average Pace of Game 151.6
    Away Team Controls Pace 152.8
    Home Team Controls Pace 150.4

    Location Predicted Line
    at Los Angeles Sparks Indiana Fever 76 Los Angeles Sparks 73 -3
    Neutral Indiana Fever 78 Los Angeles Sparks 71 -7
    at Indiana Fever Indiana Fever 79 Los Angeles Sparks 70 -9


    Average Pace of Game 148.9
    Away Team Controls Pace 145.3
    Home Team Controls Pace 152.6
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  2. 08-18-11 11:05 AM #177
    ebemiss
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    Thursday

    Over 150 Minnesota/Washington 1 unit
    Under 152.5 LA/Indiana 1.5 units
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  3. 08-18-11 08:05 PM #178
    BernardMadoff
    Sam Hurd +3000
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    .....
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  4. 08-19-11 03:39 PM #179
    ebemiss
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    Record

    51-37 (+16.40)

    2nd half experiment

    3-4 (-0.68)

    Friday-- no play on full game, maybe 2nd half depending on how the game plays out.

    Saturday

    NY +6.5 1.5 units

    Friday/Saturday Projections

    Location Predicted Line
    at Atlanta Dream Atlanta Dream 82 Connecticut Sun 81 -1
    Neutral Connecticut Sun 82 Atlanta Dream 80 -2
    at Connecticut Sun Connecticut Sun 84 Atlanta Dream 79 -5


    Average Pace of Game 162.6
    Away Team Controls Pace 160.1
    Home Team Controls Pace 165.1

    Saturday

    Location Predicted Line
    at Washington Mystics Chicago Sky 72 Washington Mystics 72 0
    Neutral Chicago Sky 74 Washington Mystics 70 -4
    at Chicago Sky Chicago Sky 75 Washington Mystics 69 -6


    Average Pace of Game 143.9
    Away Team Controls Pace 140.4
    Home Team Controls Pace 147.3

    Location Predicted Line
    at Minnesota Lynx Minnesota Lynx 83 Los Angeles Sparks 74 -9
    Neutral Minnesota Lynx 82 Los Angeles Sparks 76 -6
    at Los Angeles Sparks Minnesota Lynx 80 Los Angeles Sparks 77 -3


    Average Pace of Game 157.2
    Away Team Controls Pace 161.5
    Home Team Controls Pace 152.9

    Location Predicted Line
    at Phoenix Mercury Phoenix Mercury 92 San Antonio Silver Stars 85 -7
    Neutral Phoenix Mercury 90 San Antonio Silver Stars 87 -3
    at San Antonio Silver Stars Phoenix Mercury 89 San Antonio Silver Stars 88 -1


    Average Pace of Game 177
    Away Team Controls Pace 165.8
    Home Team Controls Pace 188.6

    Location Predicted Line
    at Seattle Storm Seattle Storm 73 New York Liberty 69 -4
    Neutral Seattle Storm 72 New York Liberty 70 -2
    at New York Liberty New York Liberty 72 Seattle Storm 70 -2


    Average Pace of Game 141.7
    Away Team Controls Pace 144.5
    Home Team Controls Pace 138.8
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  5. 08-19-11 06:00 PM #180
    binomial
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    calling it nicely.

    does the model take days rest into account?
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  6. 08-19-11 06:18 PM #181
    ebemiss
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    Quote Originally Posted by binomial View Post
    calling it nicely.

    does the model take days rest into account?
    No not really. Just overall season numbers and adjustments versus the actual line. Basically using the projections as a guide, then adding in other factors when handicapping the game, like days off, injuries or other circumstances.
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  7. 08-19-11 06:28 PM #182
    ebemiss
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    When capping the NBA, when a team is on short rest or multiple games in a short period of time, I usually add 3-4 points in favor of the rested team. I believe that's what the difference is that the lines makers use as well. I'm not exactly sure about the WNBA maybe a couple at least.
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  8. 08-19-11 07:31 PM #183
    ebemiss
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    2ND Half play

    Over 85 Atlanta/Connecticut .5 units
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  9. 08-19-11 07:45 PM #184
    ebemiss
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    Make it a full unit with another .05 on 84.5 over atl/ct
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  10. 08-21-11 02:39 AM #185
    ebemiss
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    Record

    52-37 (+17.90)

    2nd half experiment

    4-4 (+0.32)

    Sunday Projections

    Location Predicted Line
    at Connecticut Sun Connecticut Sun 84 Atlanta Dream 79 -5
    Neutral Connecticut Sun 82 Atlanta Dream 80 -2
    at Atlanta Dream Atlanta Dream 82 Connecticut Sun 81 -1


    Average Pace of Game 162.6
    Away Team Controls Pace 165.1
    Home Team Controls Pace 160.1

    Location Predicted Line
    at Indiana Fever Indiana Fever 76 Washington Mystics 66 -10
    Neutral Indiana Fever 74 Washington Mystics 68 -6
    at Washington Mystics Indiana Fever 73 Washington Mystics 69 -4


    Average Pace of Game 142
    Away Team Controls Pace 142.5
    Home Team Controls Pace 141.5

    Location Predicted Line
    at Tulsa Shock Los Angeles Sparks 79 Tulsa Shock 72 -7
    Neutral Los Angeles Sparks 80 Tulsa Shock 70 -10
    at Los Angeles Sparks Los Angeles Sparks 82 Tulsa Shock 69 -13


    Average Pace of Game 150.7
    Away Team Controls Pace 154.7
    Home Team Controls Pace 146.8
    Last edited by ebemiss; 08-21-11 at 02:47 AM.
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  11. 08-23-11 12:57 PM #186
    ebemiss
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    Tuesday

    Played

    Washington +3
    San Antonio +7

    totals are tight to my projections, will probably wait to see if there's value in a 2nd half play.

    Projections

    Location Predicted Line
    at Washington Mystics Los Angeles Sparks 76 Washington Mystics 74 -2
    Neutral Los Angeles Sparks 77 Washington Mystics 72 -5
    at Los Angeles Sparks Los Angeles Sparks 79 Washington Mystics 71 -8


    Average Pace of Game 149.5
    Away Team Controls Pace 152.5
    Home Team Controls Pace 146.4

    Location Predicted Line
    at Chicago Sky Chicago Sky 80 Atlanta Dream 79 -1
    Neutral Atlanta Dream 80 Chicago Sky 78 -2
    at Atlanta Dream Atlanta Dream 82 Chicago Sky 77 -5


    Average Pace of Game 158.4
    Away Team Controls Pace 168
    Home Team Controls Pace 149.1

    Location Predicted Line
    at Tulsa Shock Minnesota Lynx 82 Tulsa Shock 69 -13
    Neutral Minnesota Lynx 83 Tulsa Shock 68 -15
    at Minnesota Lynx Minnesota Lynx 85 Tulsa Shock 66 -19


    Average Pace of Game 151.2
    Away Team Controls Pace 151
    Home Team Controls Pace 151.4

    Location Predicted Line
    at Phoenix Mercury Phoenix Mercury 91 New York Liberty 84 -7
    Neutral Phoenix Mercury 90 New York Liberty 86 -4
    at New York Liberty Phoenix Mercury 88 New York Liberty 87 -1


    Average Pace of Game 175.8
    Away Team Controls Pace 167.9
    Home Team Controls Pace 183.9

    Location Predicted Line
    at Seattle Storm Seattle Storm 73 San Antonio Silver Stars 69 -4
    Neutral Seattle Storm 72 San Antonio Silver Stars 71 -1
    at San Antonio Silver Stars San Antonio Silver Stars 72 Seattle Storm 70 -2


    Average Pace of Game 142.3
    Away Team Controls Pace 142.4
    Home Team Controls Pace 142.1
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  12. 08-23-11 06:55 PM #187
    ebemiss
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    2nd half

    Under 78 Washington/LA
    Washington +1.5

    1 unit each
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  13. 08-25-11 01:06 PM #188
    ebemiss
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    Record

    52-39 (+15.70)

    2nd half experiment

    5-5 (+0.22)

    Thursday

    Under 141.5 Seattle/Tulsa
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  14. 08-26-11 11:23 AM #189
    ebemiss
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    Record

    53-39 (+16.70)

    2nd half experiment

    5-5 (+0.22)

    Over 178 Phoenix/Connecticut (2 units)
    Over 86.5 Pho/Conn 1st half (0.5 unit)

    with or without Tarasi.

    Projections

    Location Predicted Line
    at Connecticut Sun Connecticut Sun 93 Phoenix Mercury 89 -4
    Neutral Connecticut Sun 91 Phoenix Mercury 91 0
    at Phoenix Mercury Phoenix Mercury 92 Connecticut Sun 90 -2


    Average Pace of Game 182.1
    Away Team Controls Pace 187.5
    Home Team Controls Pace 176.8

    Location Predicted Line
    at Minnesota Lynx Minnesota Lynx 81 San Antonio Silver Stars 71 -10
    Neutral Minnesota Lynx 79 San Antonio Silver Stars 73 -6
    at San Antonio Silver Stars Minnesota Lynx 78 San Antonio Silver Stars 74 -4


    Average Pace of Game 152.3
    Away Team Controls Pace 151
    Home Team Controls Pace 153.7

    ocation Predicted Line
    at Chicago Sky Chicago Sky 75 Washington Mystics 68 -7
    Neutral Chicago Sky 74 Washington Mystics 70 -4
    at Washington Mystics Chicago Sky 72 Washington Mystics 71 -1


    Average Pace of Game 143.7
    Away Team Controls Pace 147.1
    Home Team Controls Pace 140.3

    Location Predicted Line
    at Los Angeles Sparks Los Angeles Sparks 81 Tulsa Shock 69 -12
    Neutral Los Angeles Sparks 80 Tulsa Shock 70 -10
    at Tulsa Shock Los Angeles Sparks 78 Tulsa Shock 72 -6


    Average Pace of Game 149.9
    Away Team Controls Pace 146
    Home Team Controls Pace 153.9
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  15. 08-27-11 11:58 AM #190
    ebemiss
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    Record

    55-39 (+19.20)

    2nd half experiment

    5-5 (+0.22)

    Saturday

    Under 157.5 Atlanta/Indiana 1 unit

    Projections (Sat/Sun)

    Location Predicted Line
    at Indiana Fever Indiana Fever 81 Atlanta Dream 75 -6
    Neutral Indiana Fever 79 Atlanta Dream 77 -2
    at Atlanta Dream Atlanta Dream 78 Indiana Fever 78 0


    Average Pace of Game 156
    Away Team Controls Pace 162.2
    Home Team Controls Pace 150

    Sunday

    Location Predicted Line
    at San Antonio Silver Stars Minnesota Lynx 78 San Antonio Silver Stars 74 -4
    Neutral Minnesota Lynx 79 San Antonio Silver Stars 73 -6
    at Minnesota Lynx Minnesota Lynx 81 San Antonio Silver Stars 71 -10


    Average Pace of Game 152.3
    Away Team Controls Pace 153.7
    Home Team Controls Pace 151

    Location Predicted Line
    at Tulsa Shock Connecticut Sun 81 Tulsa Shock 71 -10
    Neutral Connecticut Sun 82 Tulsa Shock 69 -13
    at Connecticut Sun Connecticut Sun 84 Tulsa Shock 68 -16


    Average Pace of Game 151.5
    Away Team Controls Pace 155.4
    Home Team Controls Pace 147.6

    Location Predicted Line
    at Washington Mystics Phoenix Mercury 90 Washington Mystics 84 -6
    Neutral Phoenix Mercury 91 Washington Mystics 82 -9
    at Phoenix Mercury Phoenix Mercury 93 Washington Mystics 81 -12


    Average Pace of Game 173.4
    Away Team Controls Pace 181.8
    Home Team Controls Pace 165.3

    Location Predicted Line
    at Chicago Sky Chicago Sky 74 New York Liberty 72 -2
    Neutral New York Liberty 74 Chicago Sky 73 -1
    at New York Liberty New York Liberty 75 Chicago Sky 71 -4


    Average Pace of Game 146.8
    Away Team Controls Pace 150.4
    Home Team Controls Pace 143.1

    Location Predicted Line
    at Seattle Storm Seattle Storm 76 Los Angeles Sparks 70 -6
    Neutral Seattle Storm 74 Los Angeles Sparks 71 -3
    at Los Angeles Sparks Seattle Storm 73 Los Angeles Sparks 73 0


    Average Pace of Game 145.6
    Away Team Controls Pace 151.1
    Home Team Controls Pace 140.2
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  16. 08-28-11 03:00 PM #191
    ebemiss
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    Record

    55-40 (+18.10)

    2nd half experiment

    5-5 (+0.22)

    Sunday

    Under 146 NY/Chicago 1 unit
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  17. 08-30-11 01:41 PM #192
    ebemiss
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    Record

    55-41 (+17.00)

    2nd half experiment

    5-5 (+0.22)

    Tuesday

    San Antonio -3 1.5 units
    Over 173.5 Phoenix/Tulsa 1 unit
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  18. 08-30-11 07:33 PM #193
    ebemiss
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    Add

    2nd half Atlanta/Indiana over 82 1 unit
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  19. 08-30-11 08:00 PM #194
    ebemiss
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    add

    over 2nd half 75.5 minnesota/washington 1 unit
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  20. 08-30-11 10:24 PM #195
    ebemiss
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    add

    Under 73 seattle/la 2nd half 1 unit
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  21. 09-01-11 04:12 PM #196
    ebemiss
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    Record

    56-42 (+17.40)

    2nd half experiment

    6-7 (-0.98)

    Thursday

    San Antonio -1.5 (1.5 units)
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  22. 09-02-11 04:45 PM #197
    ebemiss
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    Record

    57-42 (+18.90)

    2nd half experiment

    6-7 (-0.98)

    Friday

    Under 151.5 Connecticut/Indiana 1 unit
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  23. 09-03-11 12:59 PM #198
    ebemiss
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    Record

    58-42 (+19.90)

    2nd half experiment

    6-7 (-0.98)

    Saturday

    Over 176.5 Phoenix/Los Angeles 1.5 units
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  24. 09-04-11 02:32 PM #199
    ebemiss
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    Record

    58-43 (+18.25)

    2nd half experiment

    6-7 (-0.98)

    Sunday

    Under 145 Chicago/Indiana 2 units
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  25. 09-07-11 05:19 PM #200
    ebemiss
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    Record

    58-44 (+16.05)

    2nd half experiment

    6-7 (-0.98)

    Wednesday

    Under 144.5 Washington/Indiana
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  26. 09-15-11 12:36 PM #201
    ebemiss
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    Thursday

    Under 147 Indiana/NY (2 units)
    Over 161 Seattle/Phoenix 1 unit

    Projections

    Location Predicted Line
    at Indiana Fever Indiana Fever 75 New York Liberty 71 -4
    Neutral Indiana Fever 73 New York Liberty 72 -1
    at New York Liberty New York Liberty 74 Indiana Fever 72 -2


    Average Pace of Game 145.5
    Away Team Controls Pace 144.4
    Home Team Controls Pace 146.6

    Location Predicted Line
    at Seattle Storm Seattle Storm 84 Phoenix Mercury 78 -6
    Neutral Seattle Storm 83 Phoenix Mercury 80 -3
    at Phoenix Mercury Seattle Storm 81 Phoenix Mercury 81 0


    Average Pace of Game 162.8
    Away Team Controls Pace 171
    Home Team Controls Pace 154.9
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  27. 09-15-11 10:04 PM #202
    ebemiss
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    2nd half WNBA Seattle -.5 1 unit
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  28. 09-16-11 01:02 PM #203
    ebemiss
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    Friday

    Connecticut -4 1.5 units
    San Antonio +9 1 unit
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  29. 09-22-11 07:00 PM #204
    ebemiss
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    2nd half over 81 Atl/Indiana 1 unit
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  30. 09-25-11 11:00 AM #205
    ebemiss
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    Record

    60-47 (+15.75)

    2nd half experiment

    7-8 (-1.08)

    Over 157 Atlanta/Indiana 1.5 units
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  31. 09-27-11 06:16 PM #206
    ebemiss
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    Record

    61-47 (+17.25)

    2nd half experiment

    7-8 (-1.08)

    Tuesday 9/27/11

    Over 156.5 Atlanta/Indiana 1.5 units
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