[ebemiss]

Here are my WNBA projections for tonight. I've created a line and total model for multiple sports, so far totals are doing better than sides with basketball. I'll try to post them when I can or pm me I'll give you the link to the "predictor" and you can get them anytime.

It's still early in the season but I've seen enough positive results to post them.


WNBA

Location Predicted Line
at Indiana Fever Indiana Fever 75 New York Liberty 71 -4
Neutral Indiana Fever 74 New York Liberty 72 -2
at New York Liberty New York Liberty 74 Indiana Fever 72 -2


Average Pace of Game 146
Away Team Controls Pace 145.7
Home Team Controls Pace 146.3

Location Predicted Line
at Tulsa Shock San Antonio Silver Stars 84 Tulsa Shock 80 -4
Neutral San Antonio Silver Stars 86 Tulsa Shock 79 -7
at San Antonio Silver Stars San Antonio Silver Stars 87 Tulsa Shock 77 -10


Average Pace of Game 164.7
Away Team Controls Pace 157.3
Home Team Controls Pace 172.2

Location Predicted Line
at Chicago Sky Chicago Sky 78 Connecticut Sun 76 -2
Neutral Connecticut Sun 77 Chicago Sky 77 0
at Connecticut Sun Connecticut Sun 79 Chicago Sky 75 -4


Average Pace of Game 154.1
Away Team Controls Pace 161.3
Home Team Controls Pace 147.1

Location Predicted Line
at Los Angeles Sparks Phoenix Mercury 89 Los Angeles Sparks 89 0
Neutral Phoenix Mercury 91 Los Angeles Sparks 87 -4
at Phoenix Mercury Phoenix Mercury 92 Los Angeles Sparks 86 -6


Average Pace of Game 178.4
Away Team Controls Pace 184.1
Home Team Controls Pace 172.8

[ManBearPig]

Interesting...I use similar logic in one of my NBA totals systems...have you found this successful in WNBA?

[ebemiss]

Yes. That's why I've posted it. Plus I was hoping I could get some extra eyes to help me see if anything else with the numbers are showing winning results. (good or bad).

[diondublin]

Yes. That's why I've posted it. Plus I was hoping I could get some extra eyes to help me see if anything else with the numbers are showing winning results. (good or bad).

In the NBA, the home team usually controls the pace, I think.

Do you agree with this, and do you think it holds in the WNBA?

[ebemiss]

to be honest my average pace seems closer to the line and outcome of games and is what I've used more as my starting point for handicapping. Track it for a few games/teams and see which is better. I'd be interested to see if one way is better or leans to the correct outcome than the other.

[ManBearPig]

Yes. That's why I've posted it. Plus I was hoping I could get some extra eyes to help me see if anything else with the numbers are showing winning results. (good or bad).

Sorry, I think you're on a good path here. I don't know about the WNBA, but in the NBA I tend to favor the team that has a better power rating and favor their pace over the opponent. The thought is they will impose their pace on the weaker team and force the opponent to adjust. I've have some success but it's all theory as there are some other angels that I'd like to test...like stronger team at home or stronger team on road and how they perform. I will follow along and provide input if I think it helps...GL

[ebemiss]

thanks. I'm hoping to find more results through tracking, and any help is appreciated. Even if something is generating a bad result at least it could keep me/us off the play if it shows up enough.

[ManBearPig]

Are u going to be posting records each day or just your projected lines? Also if u dont mind me asking where do u get ur numbers meaning do u have a db or just scrape a site or sites? I heard wnba tough to find.

[ebemiss]

Are u going to be posting records each day or just your projected lines? Also if u dont mind me asking where do u get ur numbers meaning do u have a db or just scrape a site or sites? I heard wnba tough to find.

I'll post when I can, or like I said I can give anyone the link to the numbers. I have a database that I adjust the numbers after each night's games.

Here are Saturday's numbers. Sides are still volatile, totals seem better.

Location Predicted Line
at New York Liberty New York Liberty 74 Indiana Fever 73 -1
Neutral Indiana Fever 74 New York Liberty 72 -2
at Indiana Fever Indiana Fever 76 New York Liberty 71 -5


Average Pace of Game 146.7
Away Team Controls Pace 147
Home Team Controls Pace 146.5

Location Predicted Line
at Washington Mystics Washington Mystics 74 Chicago Sky 72 -2
Neutral Chicago Sky 73 Washington Mystics 72 -1
at Chicago Sky Chicago Sky 75 Washington Mystics 71 -4


Average Pace of Game 145.6
Away Team Controls Pace 141.7
Home Team Controls Pace 149.6

Location Predicted Line
at San Antonio Silver Stars Atlanta Dream 85 San Antonio Silver Stars 82 -3
Neutral Atlanta Dream 86 San Antonio Silver Stars 81 -5
at Atlanta Dream Atlanta Dream 88 San Antonio Silver Stars 79 -9


Average Pace of Game 167.2
Away Team Controls Pace 177.4
Home Team Controls Pace 157.3

[ebemiss]

Sunday

Location Predicted Line
at Connecticut Sun Connecticut Sun 91 Tulsa Shock 75 -16
Neutral Connecticut Sun 90 Tulsa Shock 76 -14
at Tulsa Shock Connecticut Sun 88 Tulsa Shock 78 -10


Average Pace of Game 165.8
Away Team Controls Pace 167.4
Home Team Controls Pace 164.1

[ebemiss]

Average pace total is beating the closing line

[ManBearPig]

I'll post when I can, or like I said I can give anyone the link to the numbers. I have a database that I adjust the numbers after each night's games.

I totally understand, I do the same in NBA. It's a lot of work for sure and I'm not even sure how interested I'm in the WNBA anyways, but I'm just feeling it out. I love totals so that's all I'd track anyways. Hope you continue to post. GL

[ebemiss]

Tuesday's games

Location Predicted Line
at Indiana Fever Indiana Fever 88 Tulsa Shock 70 -18
Neutral Indiana Fever 87 Tulsa Shock 71 -16
at Tulsa Shock Indiana Fever 85 Tulsa Shock 73 -12


Average Pace of Game 158.4
Away Team Controls Pace 162.7
Home Team Controls Pace 154.1

Location Predicted Line
at New York Liberty New York Liberty 84 Atlanta Dream 81 -3
Neutral Atlanta Dream 82 New York Liberty 82 0
at Atlanta Dream Atlanta Dream 84 New York Liberty 81 -3


Average Pace of Game 164.7
Away Team Controls Pace 172.3
Home Team Controls Pace 157.2

[ManBearPig]

So I'm just putting this information you share into a spreadsheet just to see how the numbers look. The only thing I need is what the line was for the game. Do you have those or what site would give me historical WNBA lines? I guess I'll check Covers first.

[ebemiss]

scoresandodds.com has them by the date the game was. I'm not sure if there is anyplace that may have them all on 1 page.

[ManBearPig]

That's fine...I always forget about them. It's not that many games to dig up so I'll just get them from there.

[ebemiss]

Thursday's game

Location Predicted Line
at Washington Mystics Washington Mystics 78 Connecticut Sun 76 -2
Neutral Connecticut Sun 78 Washington Mystics 77 -1
at Connecticut Sun Connecticut Sun 79 Washington Mystics 75 -4


Average Pace of Game 154.6
Away Team Controls Pace 156.9
Home Team Controls Pace 152.3

[diondublin]

Thursday's game

Location Predicted Line
at Washington Mystics Washington Mystics 78 Connecticut Sun 76 -2
Neutral Connecticut Sun 78 Washington Mystics 77 -1
at Connecticut Sun Connecticut Sun 79 Washington Mystics 75 -4


Average Pace of Game 154.6
Away Team Controls Pace 156.9
Home Team Controls Pace 152.3

Thanks for posting, and I think I get what you're driving at.

However, it might be even better if you ended with your clear actual picks versus the line, perhaps with a strength rating.

You seem to be picking Wash by 2 and 154 points tonight so you might indicate that you shade Conn(+3) and Over 153.5 as selections, if only for a minimum 1* each.

[ebemiss]

I'm not ending with anything or I don't seem to be picking anything. Don't draw conclusions on what I'm doing or picking, as I've never posted a play. The numbers are NOT MY OPINION. They are based on statistics. Use the numbers as you'd like and I'll use them as I like.

I was hoping through other people looking at them and tracking them they would help me as I tweak my model, THAT'S IT.

If the sides are beating the opening/closing line, or the total is doing the same or leaning towards one team's pace. That's what I'm looking for.

I'm doing the work with the projections, I can't keep track of everything, that's why I posted them, for help.

[ebemiss]

I'm also looking to see if my numbers agree with these big line movements on both sides and totals. That will tell me I'm on the right track as people alot smarter, and with bigger bankrolls than me, are moving these numbers.

That will also help lead us to plays eventually.

[ManBearPig]

I got these in a spreadsheet but I don't have much data to really see anything yet. The problem with WNBA is it's so short your sample size is very minute compared to what you would need. I can't wait too long with it because the season will be over before we know it. Do you have numbers prior to your first post from the start of the season because I could always incorporate those, it's not that hard.

I did want to add that it seems that when there's a big line swing...say 3+ pts...it seems to be in your favor, but I don't have enough samples. Take tomorrows game for example...opens at 155.5 and now sits at 152.5. You're average pace sits at 154.6 with the home team at 152. I wouldn't be surprised to see this go under, but I think the value may be gone at this point because it's swung so heavily in the opposite direction.

I have all the formulas to create the data but finding WNBA stats is a bitch, well outside of scraping your own which I may have to do if I want viable data. I think there are probably 1 or 2 totals a week that come out that are so off but you need to get them before the line moves...check and mate.

[csmkr18]

actually today's game line opened at 149.5 but just after that the total jumped to 155.5 and than droped to 153

[StevoS]

Really impressed by your process and calculations. Hope it turns into $ for you.

[Love The Action]

I got these in a spreadsheet but I don't have much data to really see anything yet. The problem with WNBA is it's so short your sample size is very minute compared to what you would need. I can't wait too long with it because the season will be over before we know it. Do you have numbers prior to your first post from the start of the season because I could always incorporate those, it's not that hard.

I did want to add that it seems that when there's a big line swing...say 3+ pts...it seems to be in your favor, but I don't have enough samples. Take tomorrows game for example...opens at 155.5 and now sits at 152.5. You're average pace sits at 154.6 with the home team at 152. I wouldn't be surprised to see this go under, but I think the value may be gone at this point because it's swung so heavily in the opposite direction.

I have all the formulas to create the data but finding WNBA stats is a bitch, well outside of scraping your own which I may have to do if I want viable data. I think there are probably 1 or 2 totals a week that come out that are so off but you need to get them before the line moves...check and mate.

Exactly....the only problem is neither of my locals open their WNBA lines until the day of the game and I always end up missing the steam. Nevertheless, I have started the season 10 - 5 (all totals) so I'm not complaining too hard. I will be interested to see where the rest of the season takes me, but the WNBA totals system I built off of my NBA system has worked well with a few tweaks related to the ladies.

I just read through this thread and find it very interesting. Keep up the good work Ebemiss. I will continue to follow and chime in to help analyze your data once we start to see some more trends arise. Good luck.

[ManBearPig]

actually today's game line opened at 149.5 but just after that the total jumped to 155.5 and than droped to 153

I play BM and they had it at 155.5 so there has been some correction. I see that Pinny (which I can't play) had it at 149 and there was some major correction up and then back down which leads me to still believe that if you got this at u155 ish you got a great number. I think now the value has been sucked out of it, but I don't have the same feel with the WNBA as I do NBA so maybe I'm completely wrong.

[ManBearPig]

Exactly....the only problem is neither of my locals open their WNBA lines until the day of the game and I always end up missing the steam. Nevertheless, I have started the season 10 - 5 (all totals) so I'm not complaining too hard. I will be interested to see where the rest of the season takes me, but the WNBA totals system I built off of my NBA system has worked well with a few tweaks related to the ladies. I just read through this thread and find it very interesting. Keep up the good work Ebemiss. I will continue to follow and chime in to help analyze your data once we start to see some more trends arise. Good luck.

I was hoping to do something similar but finding WNBA data isn't real easy, that is unless you're scraping the ESPN box scores. I know there's not a lot but WNBA data shouldn't be that hard to find. I may just have to build it and make it a little project.

I don't even look at sides, are those harder/easier to beat than totals? There's got to be some advantages I just wish I was more educated about this totally awesome sport

[bondguy007]

I'm picking the over in the CT game for a whopping 6 betpoints. lol.

[ebemiss]

I was hoping to do something similar but finding WNBA data isn't real easy, that is unless you're scraping the ESPN box scores. I know there's not a lot but WNBA data shouldn't be that hard to find. I may just have to build it and make it a little project.

I don't even look at sides, are those harder/easier to beat than totals? There's got to be some advantages I just wish I was more educated about this totally awesome sport

What data are you looking for? Espn and WNBA.com have team statistics you can turn into possession stats, if that's what your looking for. I don't understand what you are trying to build. Let me know maybe I can send a link or help.

[ebemiss]

Really impressed by your process and calculations. Hope it turns into $ for you.

thanks. hopefully if we can find a few solid trends we all can benefit. It may only be a few games a week but I believe the numbers to be solid and moving towards the money on the totals more than sides.

[ManBearPig]

What data are you looking for? Espn and WNBA.com have team statistics you can turn into possession stats, if that's what your looking for. I don't understand what you are trying to build. Let me know maybe I can send a link or help.

I'm probably just being lazy, but that's probably what I would have to end up doing. I don't really have anything specific in mind so I'm not really sure what I'm going for except the basics. Scores, 1H/2H scores, scores by half, ect... I guess the first thing I need to decide is how I am going to gather the data, but this would be the same with any sport. If you have anything, besides the obvious, that would be useful please feel free to share.

[ebemiss]

Friday's games

Location Predicted Line
at Minnesota Lynx Atlanta Dream 86 Minnesota Lynx 84 -2
Neutral Atlanta Dream 87 Minnesota Lynx 83 -4
at Atlanta Dream Atlanta Dream 89 Minnesota Lynx 81 -8


Average Pace of Game 170.2
Away Team Controls Pace 179.1
Home Team Controls Pace 161.6

Location Predicted Line
at Chicago Sky Chicago Sky 75 New York Liberty 72 -3
Neutral New York Liberty 74 Chicago Sky 73 -1
at New York Liberty New York Liberty 75 Chicago Sky 72 -3


Average Pace of Game 147.2
Away Team Controls Pace 150.6
Home Team Controls Pace 143.9

Location Predicted Line
at Seattle Storm Seattle Storm 73 Indiana Fever 69 -4
Neutral Seattle Storm 72 Indiana Fever 71 -1
at Indiana Fever Indiana Fever 72 Seattle Storm 70 -2


Average Pace of Game 142.2
Away Team Controls Pace 144.2
Home Team Controls Pace 140.1

Location Predicted Line
at Phoenix Mercury Phoenix Mercury 90 San Antonio Silver Stars 88 -2
Neutral San Antonio Silver Stars 89 Phoenix Mercury 89 0
at San Antonio Silver Stars San Antonio Silver Stars 91 Phoenix Mercury 87 -4


Average Pace of Game 178.3
Away Team Controls Pace 168.3
Home Team Controls Pace 188.6

[ManBearPig]

So looking at Fridays games. There are two that standout from your pace numbers. I use BM so I'll use that current line and compare it with the average.

MIN/ATL
Avg - 170
Line - 163.5
Favors - Over

SEA/IND
Avg - 142
Line - 148
Favors - Under

I'm not saying that these are guarantees, but it's definitely something that I would look into and track as potential plays. If the lines start moving in compliance then you probably had a good play. It's a start though.

[ebemiss]

Correct that's my initial impression. Then I'd look to see which side may have control over the pace, or may be the correct side, and if the line is leaning towards them.

Line leans toward Minnesota's pace and I have Atlanta as a better team. That can mean two things. I have Minnesota rated too low or Atlanta too high. Will be interesting to see.

In the other game you mentioned Indiana will play a little faster but it looks like there's value. Seattle had a game go over when they scored 20+ points in the last 2 minutes last week. Maybe that's why it opened a bit higher.

[ebemiss]

Lines have already moved off of the numbers you posted at The Greek.

[ManBearPig]

Oh and also I wanted to recommend you generate some type of average numbers, i.e Avg Pace and Avg Total. In the NBA it usually hovers around 199 and 92. The WNBA has a number and you should find it and incorporate them these because they do matter.