SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks
3 Big Plays Thursday 4/28/11
I have already locked in the following plays:
- Lakers/Hornets Under (184) 12.5x
- Orlando/Atlanta Under (178) 6x
- Portland/Dallas Under (182) 4x
Lakers/Hornets Summary
Here we go again with another big play on the Lakers/Hornets under.
In the last game, 70%+ of all bets were on the over with the total set at 183 and the public cashed big. Yet, the books only added one point to the total and opened this game at 184. If the books were fearful of another public over, they would have opened this game at 185 or 186. Instead, they are giving us an indicator that the under is the play here by opening the total so low. In addition, after opening, over 90% of all bets have come in on the over. However, instead of moving up a point or juicing the over, the books are holding steady at 184 and juicing both sides evenly. This opening line action, or lack thereof, also tells me the under is the play here. I expect the total to drop by late morning with heavy sharp action coming in on the under, but the total bets to stay in the 70% range all the way through the start of the game. That is why I locked in 7 units now. I don't see this total going up much and it will eventually fall. Plus, this is a good public fade. If the ref assignments check out in favor of the under, I will add units as noted above by around 11am EST.
I don't think either team will shoot as well as they did in the last game. Both of these teams shot 49%+ last game on a combined 142 fg attempts. Assuming these shooting percentages come down to a more realistic number of 43%, we should easily cash the under.
These teams have been playing to a classic zig-zag trend as high scoring games have been followed by low scoring games. I have no doubt this game should follow suit and go under. I just don't see either team shooting anywhere near 50% in this game 6. Plus, these teams have been playing a consistent slow pace in each of their games with field goal attempts consistently in the 140's. I see an even slower pace in this elimination game as both teams clamp down on D in the second half and really turn the game into a half-court struggle.
As I noted in my writeup for game 2 of this series, both the Lakers and Hornets were under machines all year, with the Hornets going 32-51 o/u and the Lakers going 34-59 o/u. At home, the Hornets were 17-26 o/u, while the Lakers were 17/26 o/u on the road. I see these trends continuing and the under hitting in Game 6.
The Hornets know they can't match the Lakers' offensive firepower, despite how great the Hornets have played on offense in this series. The Hornets were at their best this year when playing lock down defense and I think they realize they need to get back to that style of play if they want to win. On the Lakers side of things, defensive intensity needs to be key. The Lakers should be embarrassed with their recent defensive effort and need to ramp it up if they want to end the series on Thursday. The Lakers cannot allow CP3 and Co. to shoot well from the field or they know they will have to head back to LA for a game 7.
For the foregoing reasons, I am playing the under in Game 6 of the Lakers/Hornets series.
Orlando/Atlanta Summary
Just about every trend you can find about these two teams, and especially when they play each other, points to the under. I won't even take up your time listing all of these trends, but they all lean under in this game and in this matchup.
The total opened at 178 and is about to go down late night tonight or early tomorrow. I don't think we'll see this go up above 178 from this point forward. Pinny is juicing the under big time. Currently, the majority of bets are on the under. However, as the day gets older tomorrow, I expect that to reverse and most of the public to be on the over. After all, when the public sees a total set below 180, they think there is no way a game can stay under that low of a total. Consequently, they pound the over. However, we are smarter than that. We know that the books post the total that low because of the high probability that the game never reaches 170. I love playing unders below 180 and this presents us with another opportunity.
The pace in this series really hasn't been all that slow. The Lakers and Portland series' have been slower. However, whenever these two teams play, they generally play to the under. These teams play hard against each other and give top effort, which really shows itself on the defensive end. The zig zag theory definitely has not been in effect for this series and I believe we will see the fifth under in a row on Thursday. It's true that I usually like teams to bounce-back from poor shooting performances and vice-versa, however, in this series, I just expect both teams to shoot right around 40% consistently.
Just like the Lakers/Hornets, this is a game six elimination game. The playoff elimination game under theory is much strong when the elimination game is in the sixth or seventh game of the series as opposed to the fourth or fifth game of the series. For evidence of that, you need only look at the potential elimination games in the Bulls, Heat and Grizz series. Each one of those elimination games were in fifth games of their respective series and all of them went over. The true elimination game under theory does not hold water until the series get to the real pressure packed sixth and seventh games of the series as every possession and shot is intensified. Therefore, I see that theory helping us out in all three of the games on Thursday, including this Magic/Hawks game.
For the foregoing reasons, I am playing the under in game six of the Magic/Hawks on Thursday.
Dallas/Portland Summary
This game opened up at 182 and will probably go up a half point or full point before dropping back down. Therefore, you may want to hold off and take the under tomorrow morning or mid afternoon before the dip hits. Most of the public is on the over in this game and we wouldn't have it any other way. This provides us with another good opportunity for a successful public fade.
These teams have played a slow pace in every game of this series. The only games that went over were the games that the teams shot really well. While Dallas and Portland could shoot a high percentage, even if they do the slow pace may not allow for an over. Plus, just like the other games, we have another game six elimination game. These two teams will be playing a half court defensive game that will stay close.
In the last game, these two teams shot 43% and 41%. These are respectable numbers, yet the game still stayed 8 points under the posted total. I expect more of the same on Thursday and this game to stay under the posted total.
As with all of the games, once I check the ref assignments I will probably be adding to this play. We are looking to get at least two refs for each game that favor the under. If we see those types of ref assignments, I will be adding units to each of these games. As you know, we also like to monitor the line movement so as to put in our play at the highest value possible, but while also beating the closer as much as possible. Generally, if we meet those goals, we will win far more than we will lose. I think we have value on under in all of these games and should beat the closing numbers. Finally, if any of these game should by slim chance go over and they will need to play a game 7, those game 7's will provide for another great opportunity to chase these elimination game unders.
I'm excited guys. I love playing unders way more than overs. I had to with the value the last couple days and play some overs. Although they won, I am ready to get back to playing some winning unders. Let's cash all of these plays and put a hurting on the books!
Good luck guys! As always, I look forward to hearing your thoughts either for or against these plays. BOL!
Reply With Quote
Originally Posted by NBA_Brosuf
