[Love The Action]

I had some time tonight to put together some proper writeups on a few plays I really like. I hope these writeups help you guys in some way. Please let me know your thoughts.

BULLS/PACERS OVER 187.5 5U

My first play of the day will be the over 187.5 in the Bulls/Ind game for 5 units (may add to this after checking out the ref assignments). Right now, I'm seeing about 53% of all bets on the over here but really no significant line movement since the line opened at 187.5. Bookmaker is currently putting out 188, but all other "sharp" books (e.g. Pinny, Greek, 5D, Matchbook, etc.) are holding steady at 187.5 with a slight juice to the over. Although the over will probably end up being a public play to the tune of about 60% or more of all bets by tip, I still really like this play for a number of reasons. In addition, I believe I will beat the closer as the line will probably close at 188 or more. If it was going to go down a lot, I think it would have already had a dip like the Dallas/Port game. At the worst, I don't see it going below 187. I have this game capped around 190 - 192, so I think we have some value here.

Here are the other reasons I like the over in the Bulls/Ind game (in no particular order):

• Assuming we get (i) 40 made free throws; (ii) 12 made three pointers; and (iii) a shooting percentage of 44% on 161 fg attempts, the game should hit 192 or more. These two teams shot very poorly in the last two games. Both teams shot 38% in the last game and neither shot better than 41% in game two. However, they have averaged around 161 fg attempts in these three games. If they merely shoot around 44% with the same number of attempts they have had over the last three games, this game should easily hit the 190's. I don't see these two teams -- especially a higher scoring team like the Pacers and a team in the Bulls who really picked up the scoring pace the last month of the season -- continue to shoot as poorly as they did in these last two games. Yes, they have both played tough defense, however, as I said, we only need these two teams to shoot about 44% on 161 attempts to cash this over. In addition, based on the previous games, it would be very easy for these two teams combine for the 12 made three pointers and the 40 made free throws we need to round out this formula.
• Indiana's back is against the wall. I really like that intangible here, and even though I think the Bulls win and probably cover, I believe Indiana will score 90-95 points in this game. They know they have to score to win this game because Rose will always be there to hit a clutch shot for the Bulls. I think Indiana will rise to the occasion in this elimination game and score at a pretty steady clip (but still lose).
• The total is set low for a game involving Indiana. Indiana only played 5 games all year that were set between 185 and 189.5, going 4-1 in favor of the over (they never played a game lower than this range). Generally, Indiana plays games into the 190's and 200's. On the Bulls side of things, even though the Bulls were one of the better under bets all year long, they hit the over 11 out 18 times when set in this range. Therefore, I believe we have an edge on the over here when the game is set in this range. As a side note, when the side is between 4-5.5, these teams went a combined 13-9 in favor of the over so that gives us another little factor to include here.
• A majority of the publicly available trends point over. Moreover, the trends that intertwine point over. For example, the Bulls generally play to the over against home winners and Pacers generally play to the over against road winners. Therefore, these trends intertwine and help reinforce our play on the over here.

Generally, I like to play unders in the playoffs way more than overs. In addition, I also like playing against the public. However, I cashed on the Knicks/Celtics over last night for some of the same reasons that I like the over here, and I think we see the same type of game (only more competitive). Let's hope we get the same result and the over 187.5 cashes. I will try to keep this thread updated with line movement and public betting trend changes before tip. Good luck if you are on the over as well.

DALLAS/PORTLAND UNDER 186.5 3.5U

The second game I like is the Dallas/Portland under. I currently have 3.5 units locked in at 186.5, but actually expect this line to go up a tad before it drops back down to this number or lower. I just didn't want to take any chances that I will miss the higher number and get stuck with something worse. Just like in the Bulls games, I may add units once the ref assignments come out (in the playoff, ref tendencies are amplified). This line opened up 187.5 and dropped to 186.5 at all sharp books. Early money hit the under big, but now we have about 60% of all bets on the over. These are the types of plays I really like (i.e. public on over, smart money on under).

Here is why I like the under here (in no particular order):

• These teams have played a really slow pace, but have shot abnormally high percentages to send the last two games over. They have only averaged about 142 attempts but both teams have consistently hit at or around 50% for field goal and three point attempts over the last two games. There's just no way that trend continues in Portland (at least I'm willing to be there's not). Even hitting at that great percentage, these two teams barely went over scoring 190 and 189 respective points in their last two games. All we need is for these two teams to shoot around that magic 44% number and we should have no problem cashing this under. At 44% shooting on a 142 attempts, we still have about 60 points to give between free throws and three pointers. I really like our chances that these two teams do not reach any of those numbers in this game. Will Jason Kidd really hit 3 of 6 three pointers like the first game or Wesley Matthews hit 4 of 6 three pointers like the second game? Possible, yes, but I'm willing to bet it doesn't happen.
• I expect a strong defensive game here. This is the most competitive first round series so far and I expect far more physical play than we saw in the last two games. I expect the likes of Chandler, Camby and Wallace to establish a defensive mindset from the outset. Assuming we get some under friendly refs that allow the ticky-tack stuff to fly, I think this game stays under.
• Much like the Bulls game, this total is set pretty low for these two teams (especially the Mavs who were a solid over bet until the last few weeks of the season. At this range between 185 and 189.5, the teams were a combined 23-13 for the over. However, the difference between this game and Bulls game is the slower pace played by the Mavs and Portland. We have only seen about 142 attempts per game in this series, while in the Bulls game they were chucking up around 162 attempts. That is a big difference and highlights why I like the over in the Bulls game and the under in this one.

For the foregoing reasons, I like the under. A lot of the trends for both teams point over, but I just can't get over the slow pace in this series so far. We just need an average shooting day and the under should hit. As with the Bulls game, I may add units once the ref assignments are released. I will also try to keep line movement and public betting trends updated as well. Good luck on those playing the under in the Dallas/Portland game!

I may also have a play in the OKC/Den game and perhaps some small action in the Spurs game (I do love the action you know). I will also post my MLB plays for Saturday here if anyone is interested, but will not have time for writeups.

Good luck guys. Let me here from those playing opposite of me so I can understand your reasoning.
Thanks.

[nickos86]

I agree with the CHI/IND OVER. It does rely on IND to compete, though I think they will fall just short once again.


Dallas love to slow it down in the playoffs, and Portland is just... slow. Possible that the high shooting percentage is partly a product of the slow, structured offense. Obviously POR on a roll at home might put up some points quickly, and DAL has the weapons to keep up.

Overall, I agree these two teams seem to shout 'under', but unfortunately I was burnt the last time

[nickos86]

Nice write up though LTA. Loving totals also

[Love The Action]

Morning update....

Both lines holding steady. Bulls/Ind still at 187.5 everywhere with even juice at Pinny. Matchbook, however, is juicing the over and giving plus money on the under. Hopefully, that trend continues. Total bets on this play are pretty even, give or take a few percentage points either way. However, there will be a lot more money placed on both these games. Right now, only about 1/6 of the total money that will be wagered on these game is locked in.

The Dal/Por game is also holding stead at 186.5. Pinny's giving even juice, but 5D and Matchbook are both juicing the over. As I said in my writeup, I believe this total will go up and then come back down.

What do you think about GoldenGreek's post a few weeks ago about elimination games. His research indicates a significant lean to the under in elimination games. That is sort of scary for the over in Bulls/Pacers. However, I do take solace in that elimination games which are the 4th or 5th games of the series give a more even result with respect to O/U. This trend really comes into play when the elimination game is the 6th or 7th game of the series where there is a huge under lean in these elimination games.

Can I get some more thoughts opposing my view? I know there have to be lot of under backers in the Buills game. Why are you guys playing the under? I want to hear your thoughts so I can find out if there are any holes in may analysis. Thanks and good luck.

[Love The Action]

Ref assignments are out.

In the Bulls/Indiana game we have: (1) Scott Foster, (2) David Jones and (3) Michael Smith. None of these three refs really favor the over or the under as each is just about even with respect to o/u game results (give or take 2 games either way). The big thing to note is that we didn't get stuck with any of the refs that really favor the under. However, these assignments do not warrant more money being put on the over at this time. Let's see what happens with the line movement and public percentages before we lay any more money on this play.

In the Dalls/Portland game, they have assigned: (1) Tony Brothers, (2) Steve Javie and (3) Bill Kennedy. Both Brothers and Kennedy slightly favor the over, while Javie favors the under 28-20. These three did ref one game this season together, which turned out to be a low scoring affair with only 165 total points. Unfortunately, I'm not a fan of having Brothers or Kennedy ref games where I am on the under. Therefore, at this point, I'm not going to add to my wager. Let's see where the line takes us today.

Still looking to see some views that differ from mine so we can analyze these games from all viewpoints.

What do you guys think in the Mem/Spurs game. Sort of looking at the side. For me, it all comes down to Ginobli's health when capping either the total or the side. I think I like Memphis to win by two. Therefore, if you can get three points or more on the Spurs, that might be the play. I need to look at this game more closely though.

I'm going to start capping MLB now and will post my plays here. If all goes as planned, we should have a really profitable day all around. Good luck!

[0hndycp]

also liked the Over in the pacer/bull came when it came out, surprised a little bit that it hasn't moved.

[Love The Action]

It's been up and down between 187.5 and 188. There has been even action so far. Therefore, the lack of movement is not too surprising to me. The reason we haven't seen any big movement is because the "heavy hitters" have not gotten down on this total yet. I expect the closing line to be above 188. If that ends up being true, I will probably add to my play on the over.

[thebestthereis]

under at portland i like the best, good luck!

[Love The Action]

The lines are holding steady at 187.5 and 186.5 (Bookmaker at 188 and 187).

As an FYI, there is a lot of money going on the Mem/SA under. The line has dropped to 190.5 from 192, despite 60% on over. Perhaps this could be a play, however, I'm not particularly fond of taking overs in SA games. Particularly if Ginobli is healthy. However, this is one to monitor.

What do you guys think about the total in the OKC game? I slightly lean under, but have not capped it yet. However, I would not be surprised to see Denver come out firing on all cylinders, similar to the start Portland had in their game 3.

[hoyas2007]

LTA: I think that the counter argument (particularly for the Bulls game) is that this is the playoffs and teams play harder defense in the playoffs so you can't just say that a team is going to revert to its mean shooting % - what is a team's mean shooting %? It's hard to say because we compile all these stats on means during the season when no one plays any defense and now teams really try on defense... I was on the Bulls over two days ago and it got crushed. I like all your arguments again today, but this is the playoffs, and it wouldn't shock me at all if both teams shoot 40% again today. Plus, the pace in the first half of the last game was really good for the over, the two teams just shot horribly - then in the second half, the pace slowed down quite a bit, so I wouldn't say there is a consistent pace that we can count on seeing all game today.

I like the Portland under a lot more. The pace has been good in all those games - the teams are just shooting really well. And I agree with you that I would be surprised to see that continue. Even after great shooting by both teams last game, the game only went over by a few points. I like the under in that one.

I would like to see more where the lines go, but I like the Portland under a lot more than the Bulls over. The Bulls game could easily start 20-18 in the first quarter, like it does every game this series, and then the over is crushed.

[hoyas2007]

Also, it is worth mentioning that Jason Terry, in his post game interview two days ago, said that the reason they lost is because they gave up 97 points after holding Portland under 90 the first two games - I would expect to see a much better defensive effort from them today. I would be shocked if they don't come out fully energized on the defensive end.

[Love The Action]

Great points Hoyas...especially like that nugget from Jason Terry as some more ammunition for our under play.

I also understand and have factored in your points about the intensified defense in the playoffs. I generally agree with those comments. However, I just don't see Indiana holding Chicago to 38% shooting again. At least the Bulls, if not Indiana as well, should shoot much better. All three games have seen field goal attempts in 160's, so I don't expect anything different here. Consequently, all we need is few more shots to drop for us to cash this under. Because Indiana's back is against the wall, I expect to see them come out firing similar to how Portland came out in game three. I see Chicago winning and covering with a score of 100-92.

Additionally, there has not been a dip yet in the line. As long as we don't see a precipitous drop in the line, I feel very good about this play. Good luck bud!

[hoyas2007]

Wunderdog's free play today is the Bulls over, so you have some support from the pros. I wouldn't say his arguments sound particularly convincing though. Good luck whatever you end up doing

[hoyas2007]

The line is 187 right now at my book, so it dropped a little. This play scares me. I want to agree with you - I think I'm mostly hesitant because it burned me last game.

[Love The Action]

The only book at 187 right now is Bodog...which is a notoriously "square" book. So if Bodog type books are getting action on the under, that makes me feel better about the over.

[Love The Action]

Portland game jumped to 187 as predicted. Hopefully, it dips before tip.

MLB Leans:

Cubs ML
Cin/Stl Under
Cin ML
Hou ML
Hou/Mil Under
Col/FL Under
San Diego ML
CWS/Det Under
Detroit ML
Boston ML
Seattle ML

Will not be playing all of those and don't have anything locked in yet. Let's see what happens with the line moves. Good luck to all!

[Love The Action]

Pinny juicing the under -110 and offering the over at +100 at 187.5 for the Bulls game. I think we may see a dip to 187. As long as we don't go below 187, I think we're fine.

I have to run out to look at some baby furniture with my wife for our little one on the way. I will be back before tip. If anyone sees any big movement, please post here. Thanks and good luck.

[Love The Action]

That Pinny movement just switched back to -105 for both o/u at 187.5. Very nice...

Locking in a small play on Cubs for .5U at (-127). I can see a bounceback after getting killed yesterday. Dempster should be motivated to pitch against Lilly. We'll see....

Back later. Good luck.

[hoyas2007]

Bulls line is up to 188 or 188.5 at some places. Some late action on the over it seems

[Holdin Aces]

Just passing through and I must say I am very impressed. Good stuff!! I don't really have a lean either way on the Bulls total but I also think Portland and Dallas should stay under, I think we see another good game here. Colorado Rockies is my favorite play of the day. Vazquez should get rocked a day after the Rockies got one hit. Good luck this evening fellas.

[hoyas2007]

I'm passing on the Bulls game but good luck to you LTA. I am with you on the Dallas-Portland under. I also like Dallas plus the points. I think we're going to see a top effort from them today

[Love The Action]

Fyi...added one unit to 1h over at 94.5. Loving the line movement...let's hope the players follow through for us. Good luck!

[Love The Action]

Rough first quarter for over backers. I counted at least 5 shots that went in and out. Oh well, lot of time left. Hopefully both teams get hot and D. Rose is ok.

[hoyas2007]

The OKC-Denver line jumped all the way to 207.5. That starts to intrigue me as a potential play on the under

[Love The Action]

Well...the Pacers held up their end of the bargain shooting 44% and scoring 49. Unfortunately, it's hard to account for the first seed in the east shooting 33%. The pace is fine. The Bulls just...well...the Bulls just sucked it up first half. Very pathetic first half by the Bulls - frustrating for over backers for sure.

We had a loss of 1.1 units from the 1h bet.

Moving on. Time to lock some more MLB plays.

Rolling with 2U Cin/Stl Under 7.5 and 1U CWS/Det Under 8.5 for now. Good luck!

[babastar]

very nice great job!!!!!!!!!!!1111

[Love The Action]

The OKC-Denver line jumped all the way to 207.5. That starts to intrigue me as a potential play on the under

Agreed...I do lean under. Probably won't lock anything in until we see some results from the earlier games though.

[Love The Action]

Adding 5 units to Dallas/Portland under 187. Total units 3.5 (186.5) plus 5U (187) for total units of 8.5. Good luck!

[fixedgames]

on that Portland under with you bol to us.. this chi over bet fudged me so hard.

[Love The Action]

on that Portland under with you bol to us.. this chi over bet fudged me so hard.

Yeah...let's pray for OT here. Indiana leads by 5 with 45 secs left. Let's go OT No chance...

[Love The Action]

BULLS/PACERS OVER 187.5 5U

My first play of the day will be the over 187.5 in the Bulls/Ind game for 5 units (may add to this after checking out the ref assignments). Right now, I'm seeing about 53% of all bets on the over here but really no significant line movement since the line opened at 187.5. Bookmaker is currently putting out 188, but all other "sharp" books (e.g. Pinny, Greek, 5D, Matchbook, etc.) are holding steady at 187.5 with a slight juice to the over. Although the over will probably end up being a public play to the tune of about 60% or more of all bets by tip, I still really like this play for a number of reasons. In addition, I believe I will beat the closer as the line will probably close at 188 or more. If it was going to go down a lot, I think it would have already had a dip like the Dallas/Port game. At the worst, I don't see it going below 187. I have this game capped around 190 - 192, so I think we have some value here.

Here are the other reasons I like the over in the Bulls/Ind game (in no particular order):

• Assuming we get (i) 40 made free throws; (ii) 12 made three pointers; and (iii) a shooting percentage of 44% on 161 fg attempts, the game should hit 192 or more. These two teams shot very poorly in the last two games. Both teams shot 38% in the last game and neither shot better than 41% in game two. However, they have averaged around 161 fg attempts in these three games. If they merely shoot around 44% with the same number of attempts they have had over the last three games, this game should easily hit the 190's. I don't see these two teams -- especially a higher scoring team like the Pacers and a team in the Bulls who really picked up the scoring pace the last month of the season -- continue to shoot as poorly as they did in these last two games. Yes, they have both played tough defense, however, as I said, we only need these two teams to shoot about 44% on 161 attempts to cash this over. In addition, based on the previous games, it would be very easy for these two teams combine for the 12 made three pointers and the 40 made free throws we need to round out this formula.
• Indiana's back is against the wall. I really like that intangible here, and even though I think the Bulls win and probably cover, I believe Indiana will score 90-95 points in this game. They know they have to score to win this game because Rose will always be there to hit a clutch shot for the Bulls. I think Indiana will rise to the occasion in this elimination game and score at a pretty steady clip (but still lose).
• The total is set low for a game involving Indiana. Indiana only played 5 games all year that were set between 185 and 189.5, going 4-1 in favor of the over (they never played a game lower than this range). Generally, Indiana plays games into the 190's and 200's. On the Bulls side of things, even though the Bulls were one of the better under bets all year long, they hit the over 11 out 18 times when set in this range. Therefore, I believe we have an edge on the over here when the game is set in this range. As a side note, when the side is between 4-5.5, these teams went a combined 13-9 in favor of the over so that gives us another little factor to include here.
• A majority of the publicly available trends point over. Moreover, the trends that intertwine point over. For example, the Bulls generally play to the over against home winners and Pacers generally play to the over against road winners. Therefore, these trends intertwine and help reinforce our play on the over here.

Generally, I like to play unders in the playoffs way more than overs. In addition, I also like playing against the public. However, I cashed on the Knicks/Celtics over last night for some of the same reasons that I like the over here, and I think we see the same type of game (only more competitive). Let's hope we get the same result and the over 187.5 cashes. I will try to keep this thread updated with line movement and public betting trend changes before tip. Good luck if you are on the over as well.

LOSS -5.5U

Locking in a small play on Cubs for .5U at (-127). I can see a bounceback after the Cubs getting killed yesterday. Dempster should be motivated to pitch against Lilly.

WIN +.5

DOWN 5U HEADING INTO LATE AFTERNOON GAMES

We won the small Cubs play so down 5 units with 11.5U currently pending. I will have more plays as well and will bounce back strong like always.

The Bulls and Pacers played to the exact same pace as the last two games, unfortunately, they also shot just as poorly. My play on this game was premised on getting around 160 total fg attempts and both teams shooting around 44%. We got the 161 fg attempts, we just didn't get the % we needed with the Bulls shooting 37% and the Pacers shooting 39%. Call me crazy, but I might just be on the over in the next game. Can the first place Bulls really shoot under 40% for three straight games? Can't wait to sit down and cap that one LOL. Let's cash this Dallas/Por under and hit our baseball unders as well! Good luck!

[Love The Action]

on that Portland under with you bol to us.. this chi over bet fudged me so hard.

Let's do this!

[hoyas2007]

Can't ask for much better of a start than this. Hopefully it continues. LTA - does the pace look good so far? I haven't been following the game - just seeing the score now

[jacer333]

Looks like the games are playing slow today....I'm liking the under trend to continue with both later games too.

[Love The Action]

Can't ask for much better of a start than this. Hopefully it continues. LTA - does the pace look good so far? I haven't been following the game - just seeing the score now

It's just like we like it...slow. There are a little over 50 fg attempts so far with 5 minutes left. Let's just keep it like this and avoid OT.

What do you guys think about the late games? I'm leaning over SA/Mem and under OKC/Den. Going to check out the spreadsheet now.

Also will have some more baseball plays. Looks like I'll be sweating out the two unders; there's a 2 run cushion in the Cin/Stl in the 7th inning and a 3 run cushion in the CWS/Det game in 6th. I should have played my lean on Detroit.