[therealdealau]

Adding

2x Dockers +11.5 ($1.92 @ sportsbet)

[therealdealau]

1x Dogs 1-39 ($2.00 @ sportsbet)

[therealdealau]

1x Eagles 1H -25.5 ($1.90 @ sportsbet)

[therealdealau]

1x Carlton 1-39 ($2.15 @ sportsbet)

[therealdealau]

Not a bad week overall, will do a big recap tomorrow and get my plays for this week locked in got a few interesting ones.

[therealdealau]

Week 8 Results

1x Sydney +15.5 ($1.92 @ sportsbet)
1x Hawks 1-39 ($2.10 @ sportsbet)
1x Fremantle 1-39 ($2.90 @ sportsbet)
1x Fremantle +9.5 ($1.92 @ sportsbet)
1x Western Bulldogs -16.5 ($1.92 @ sportsbet)
2x West Coast -46.5 ($1.92 @ sportsbet)
2x Dockers +11.5 ($1.92 @ sportsbet)
1x Dogs 1-39 ($2.00 @ sportsbet)
1x Eagles 1H -25.5 ($1.90 @ sportsbet)
1x Carlton 1-39 ($2.15 @ sportsbet)


Week 8 AFL Plays 6-4 // +1.73 Units
Week 8 OVERALL: 6-4 // +1.73 Units

AFL Plays Record: 42-34 // +15.86 units

DT Record: 7-4 // +2.635 units

OVERALL RECORD: 49-38 // +18.495 units

[therealdealau]

Week 8 Review

I'm happy to have a winning week, the games went in line with my thinking bar one which cost me a really profitable weekend. I wish I went with my gut more instead of being scared and doing a mini hedge with Hawks 1-39, I was really confident that the Swans would come to play. They looked impressive, I will be looking to ride them from here on. Fremantle was disappointing, I really thought they would go blow for blow with Port and put them under enough pressure to keep it close or sneak a win. The run and gun of Port was too much in the fourth, Freo looked slow and dead in the water. Melbourne had a really spirited go against the Dogs, I didn't think they would be as competitive as they were - however the Dogs ended up pulling away with a win and covering for me which was lucky.

The saving grace of my weekend was definitely West Coast, who bounced back incredibly from their derby loss. They are a team with great fire power (Kennedy/Lecras/Darling/Cox), against such a young team at home I thought they were always going to blow them out. An important note is that in losses GWS allow opposition key scoring players to bag large hauls of goals.

N.Riewoldt 5.1
S.Crameri 4.0
P.Dangerfield 5.2
T.Lynch 5.1
J.Schulz 6.0
J.Kennedy 11.0

Sportsbet has a market "pick your own goal", it could be profitable to start looking at that market for teams with only a few key scoring guys.

Round 10 - GWS vs Richmond - Jack Reiwoldt
Round 11 - GWS vs Hawthorne - Gunston/Bruest (I think Roughead will be banned this game)
Round 15 - GWS v Sydney - Tippet/Franklin

What do you guys think?

I am also on twitter now!

[Gee]

Whats the pick your own goal market? I may be blind, but I can't see it.

You'd also think the lines would allow for the fact that everyone kicks bags vs GWS and that they concede 140 points a game! They always juice these markets as well, so you'll be paying a premium.

Strangely enough, Brisbane concede nearly 130 per game and no one has kicked a bag against them yet. The most is Breust with 5 in round 1.

[therealdealau]

Whats the pick your own goal market? I may be blind, but I can't see it.

You'd also think the lines would allow for the fact that everyone kicks bags vs GWS and that they concede 140 points a game! They always juice these markets as well, so you'll be paying a premium.

Strangely enough, Brisbane concede nearly 130 per game and no one has kicked a bag against them yet. The most is Breust with 5 in round 1.

It comes up under "Player Markets" - I think they put this out closer to the game maybe on the Friday? You can get odds on the player to kick 3, 4, 5 or 6 goals at various odds. You may be getting juiced on the 3-4 goals but the 5-6 goal hauls are usually pretty tasty.

I think it comes down to their key tall defenders/defensive structures, they just dont have anyone remotely good enough to run with top big forward targets. The outlier to this is Dangerfield however Jenkins kicked 4 in that game as well.

[beeeej12]

Great work on this week mate just looking at your results you have:
Fremantle +9.5 in green but then
Fremantle +11.5 in red?

But your week results are correct you might just wanna fix that up

[therealdealau]

Great work on this week mate just looking at your results you have:
Fremantle +9.5 in green but then
Fremantle +11.5 in red?

But your week results are correct you might just wanna fix that up

Well spotted mate, cheers!

[aussieH]

Agree that the swans will get on a roll and start covering. Best bet of the next round is Gold Coast. Line is at -22.5 at tab but 26.5 on sportsbet

[therealdealau]

Agree that the swans will get on a roll and start covering. Best bet of the next round is Gold Coast. Line is at -22.5 at tab but 26.5 on sportsbet

That's not bad, will definitely be a play but nothing huge for me. I have a few plays that I like that definitely will be a little out there. How have you been traveling this season?

[aussieH]

Having a good afl season but bankroll about even due to golf, nrl,nba and putting some winnings into some afl futures. Got Schultz and Hawkins going for some decent payouts and swans and pies for some decent pay outs. Long season though.

[Gee]

It comes up under "Player Markets" - I think they put this out closer to the game maybe on the Friday? You can get odds on the player to kick 3, 4, 5 or 6 goals at various odds. You may be getting juiced on the 3-4 goals but the 5-6 goal hauls are usually pretty tasty.

I think it comes down to their key tall defenders/defensive structures, they just dont have anyone remotely good enough to run with top big forward targets. The outlier to this is Dangerfield however Jenkins kicked 4 in that game as well.

Yeah, I had a good look at these a year or two ago. I think the price is usually pretty fair on these things. If you've found a leak on GWS games, exploit it for all its worth while it lasts!

[therealdealau]

Week 9

2x Adelaide +12.5 ($1.92 @ sportsbet)
1x Collingwood 1-39 ($2.20 @ sportsbet)

2x Sydney 1-39 ($2.10 @ sportsbet)
1x Sydney -17.5 ($1.90 @ sportsbet)

1.5x Richmond -28.5 ($1.92 @ sportsbet)

2x Fremantle ML ($2.00 @ sportsbet)

[TEAMSPORTS]

^^going for the pavlich and home game line of thinking for freo game? think there is a heap of motivation there gonna play a unit aswell just been watching the odds go up for coupla days. i dont dislike the adelaide play at home on a thursday night, think it will be a close game hope there is a middle for you

[therealdealau]

^^going for the pavlich and home game line of thinking for freo game? think there is a heap of motivation there gonna play a unit aswell just been watching the odds go up for coupla days. i dont dislike the adelaide play at home on a thursday night, think it will be a close game hope there is a middle for you

I think the Freo game will be fierce and close but I can't not back them on Pav's big night. Will be at the game and I am taking my mate who is a 12 year die hard Geelong fan, will be fun. Stats and form go out the window in my beliefs about tonights game, I'm not quite sure what it is about them but I think Adelaide will be pesky tonight and hard to put away.

[TEAMSPORTS]

2x Adelaide +12.5 ($1.92 @ sportsbet)

I'm not quite sure what it is about them but I think Adelaide will be pesky tonight and hard to put away.

[therealdealau]

Damn I'm so annoyed I pussied out and took a hedge with Collingwood 1-39, I must admit it was a poor play and against my thinking, I had Adelaide winning this. I hate to be one of those guys that says he had other plays ontop of the ones posted but I had play on Adelaide 1-39 as well. I don't know whether I was scared to post it incase it lost and I cost others money or whether I was scared of posting a loser, I need to get this mentality in check. Either way I'm happy with how it went.

[beeeej12]

Back yourself in mate! There are gonna be times when you back your instinct and it pays off and other times when it doesn't but a good capper like yourself will make it work

[therealdealau]

Week 9 Results

Another positive week however some silly plays cost me big, the Richmond game was a terrible play I have definitely underestimated Melbourne. Collingwood should not have been hit and neither the Sydney 1-39. Got some nice plays coming up for week 10. Hope everyone cashed.

2x Adelaide +12.5 ($1.92 @ sportsbet)
1x Collingwood 1-39 ($2.20 @ sportsbet)
2x Sydney 1-39 ($2.10 @ sportsbet)
1x Sydney -17.5 ($1.90 @ sportsbet)
1.5x Richmond -28.5 ($1.92 @ sportsbet)
2x Fremantle ML ($2.00 @ sportsbet)

Week 9 AFL Plays 3-3 // +0.24 Units

OVERALL RECORD: 52-41 // +18.735 units

[therealdealau]

Week 10

2.5x Geelong -14.5 ($1.90 @ sportsbet)
1x Geelong 1Q -3.5 ($1.90 @ sportsbet)
1x Geelong 1H -6.5 ($1.90 @ sportsbet)

2x Richmond -20.5 ($1.92 @ sportsbet)

1x Bulldogs +27.5 ($1.92 @ sportsbet)

[MustWinPlease]

A lot of people are taking Geelong at the line. North always seem to get up and about for geelong games and have few injury worries. How confident are you?

[therealdealau]

A lot of people are taking Geelong at the line. North always seem to get up and about for geelong games and have few injury worries. How confident are you?

I think Geelong will bounce back at Simmonds.

[MustWinPlease]

I think Geelong will bounce back at Simmonds.

Tailed!

[beeeej12]

I think Geelong will bounce back at Simmonds.

No doubt Geelong win tomorrow night!!

But the margin could be anything, depending on what North turns up. Even if its a 'good' north i just cant see the cats losing 2 in a row

[therealdealau]

Goal Kicker Theory vs GWS

This is not going against my record, this will be a little experiment.

0.5x Dustin Martin 3+ Goals ($4.00 @ sportsbet)
1x Jack Reiwoldt 4+ Goals ($2.55 @ sportsbet)
0.5x Jack Reiwoldt 5+ Goals ($4.70 @ sportsbet)
0.25x Jack Reiwoldt 6+ Goals ($9.00 @ sportsbet)

[therealdealau]

We are Geelong, easy money.

[MustWinPlease]

nice
now for tomorrow....

[therealdealau]

Jack with 4 in the first.

[beeeej12]

Goal Kicker Theory vs GWS

This is not going against my record, this will be a little experiment.

0.5x Dustin Martin 3+ Goals ($4.00 @ sportsbet)
1x Jack Reiwoldt 4+ Goals ($2.55 @ sportsbet) Cash it
0.5x Jack Reiwoldt 5+ Goals ($4.70 @ sportsbet) Cash it
0.25x Jack Reiwoldt 6+ Goals ($9.00 @ sportsbet) Just a matter of time before you Cash it

Dusty is always a chance to kick 3 in a quarter as well

[therealdealau]

Hopefully Dusty turns it on now!

[beeeej12]

11 minutes into the second and Jack kicks his 7th could break a record or two today

[therealdealau]

He is looking menacing