[Martinr]

Betfair don't have a spread up yet but the ML is sitting around 1.70 Geelong/2.36 Nth Melb with 26K liquidity and a 100% market. There's a shit load of money available on Geelong at 1.69-1.70 on the exchange, and it looks as though the early players are happy to take them on.
There's a range of spreads available if you shop around. B365 has a +4.5 line while Tabcorp is +7.5. There's a fair middle right there crossing the 6 point line. B365 and Supertab are 10c lines. The 5c and 0c lines will be available closer to the game. B365 are taking bets to lose up to 6K on the spread and the ML at the moment. That'll probably increase closer to the Bounce. I've no idea what the limits are at Tabcorp.
I'm all over Nth Melb here. I think their natural progression over the last 2 years gets them to the Preliminary Final next week and a playoff for the GF. Geelong, from what I've seen the second half of the year, are starting to look very limited. I went to the Geel/Carlton game a few weeks back and even though the Cats were missing Stevie J they should have put Carlton away. It was not a slick looking team. Maybe they were tapering and preparing for a slingshot into the Finals, but I'm not convinced.
The Roos showed great fight to come from 30 points down against The Bombers last week. They'll be buzzing from that and will have a self-confidence that Geelong will lack following their loss to Hawthorn. I think this is as far as Geelong goes this year.
The two Scott brothers coaching against each other adds a poignant interest in a sudden death game.
GL.

[Gee]

Cats 1H ATS. NM 2H ATS.

You're right - Cats having been putting teams away at all. They've still been doing enough to win though and I don't think that changes this week. The two teams were in different classes in r19 and I just can't see North improving or Geelong dropping off much from that game.

For the record about Cats not putting teams away, they are something like 1-18 ATS 2H in their last 19. I'm guesstimating looking at final scores now (I didn't bet them automatically until around R8 or 9), but I think the only time they've covered 2H is against Bris (r23) and Hawks (r5) and some of the games before that. Before you mention the Saints game, the spread was something like Cats -40.5, which Saints covered by the hook. The hook also saved me vs North in r19.

Cats are something like 16 - 8 ATS 1H this season as well.

I think I posted about this trend mid-season, but can't remember if I wanted to share. I'm happy to share now.

[aylukeay]

Cats are cooked.

[MustWinPlease]

cats will smash them

people are forgetting the roos were dominated for large parts of the game last week with essendon were missing key players (carlise/fletcher). Yes it was a good comeback but Geelongs senior core midfield will be no match for the roos.

[yippa82]

cats will smash them

people are forgetting the roos were dominated for large parts of the game last week with essendon were missing key players (carlise/fletcher). Yes it was a good comeback but Geelongs senior core midfield will be no match for the roos.

I'm with you on this mate. Geelong I think will have composure through the contest and have the ability to slow the game down when required..

[Martinr]

The line has moved from Geel -7.5 to -2.5.
Steve Johnson ruled out for the Cats. There are plenty of layers still prepared to take the Cats on at 1.91. Going by the money stacked up on Betfair they knew on Wednesday he wasn't going to play.

[aylukeay]

I have north for a max bet since last weejend. I thought it was common knowledge Stevie j was no hope but obv not according to market.

Attended both games last week and left thinking geelong were going down no matter who won out of ess/north


North also a much better chance of getting the upset for swans than the cats on current form.

Both sides playing only a half of football ussualy and consistently Inconsistent

[snufflyjoe]

I have a long shot on North to win the flag + bet on the ML tonight

@ aylukeay - Did you have a punt on North to win the flag? . May be in with a shot of Nth getting to the final

[aylukeay]

365 give me $20 bonus credit every week. I have put a couple of those on north and port at roughie odds.

cant see the roo's getting passed swans next week but the $41 looking pretty friendly atm!

wellplayed snuffy!

[Gee]

Nice call. Good job pal.

[snufflyjoe]

365 give me $20 bonus credit every week. I have put a couple of those on north and port at roughie odds.

cant see the roo's getting passed swans next week but the $41 looking pretty friendly atm!

wellplayed snuffy!

Ha! i also have a bit on Port. i think it may just end up being a prick tease in the end mate but it was good for a laugh. If North somehow get past Sydney then we'll be cheering if Nth and Port get to the finals we will be very Happy!