ATP Stockholm Semi Final
1* Paire (2.35)
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10-19-13 05:14 AM #141
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10-23-13 04:43 AM #142
ATP Swiss Indoors
1* Stepanek (2.10)
Fading Mr. Sharapova after his virgin torunamanet win.
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10-24-13 03:05 AM #143
No luck on posted ATP plays at the moment, 0-3
Horse racing 25/10
Mooney Valley Race 8 no.1 Lucky Nine
Short price favorite Samaready comes into this race off a career peak rating, if she flattens out here Lucky Nine has the best form and should be winning.
Horse Racing 26/10
Mooney Valley Race 10 no.11 It's A Dundeel
There are 4 horses at single figure odds and I've marked 3 of them much longer than the market so that leaves It's A Dundeel as a dominate favorite on my ratings.
Sports.bet are running a moneyback promotion for 2nd & 3rd, if you're a hundred dollar punter I suggest you take that bet.
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10-24-13 07:25 AM #144
I want to hear more about the racing tips Gonzo! How do you do them? Modeling or subjective or what?! Is it more profitable than sports? Looking forward to your reply
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10-24-13 11:09 AM #145
I start with video and sectional time analysis, speed ratings, speed maps. My speed maps are subjective, although they can be derived from raw data. I focus on Sydney racing and interstate carnivals, anything more than that and you really need to be more model based than I am.
For speed ratings read Beyer on Speed, you can produce a price just from that figure, that's a good start.
I price my horses subjectively but I have speed ratings and positive and negative trends weighting my assessments. There are alot of things that need to be considered, example: the track bias or wind conditions could turn the race on its head. I should be more model based but I hate data entry and lack programming ability
Is it more profitable than sports? There's opportunities to find extraordinary value that is hard to find in sports but it has its drawbacks as well, it's full of corruption and lacks transparency.
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10-24-13 07:22 PM #146
With Atlantic Jewel out, It's a Dundeel looks great value, just don't want too much rain! Form looks good, and I think the only threat is puissance de lune, who to me looks pretty good at the moment, but may be looking for the 2 mile, so I'm on it for the cup instead.
I used to use the video replays to frame my own markets too, but I don't do it enough to warrant paying the fee now that it is no longer up for free. Are there many options for race replays these days?
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10-24-13 08:05 PM #147
I agree PDL looks the danger given the map and he's the only other horse I've got in single figure odds but represents unders at current quotes for me.
Originally Posted by Coopertrooper
Your only option is to copy all the videos in the week you can access them for free and build your own video library or shell out the subscription fee, someone was saying you can backdoor your way into bigpond racing libraries still but I haven't seen how to do it. It's a disgrace that an industry whose vast majority of funding (85%) comes from gambling revenue tries to squeeze every last drop of our blood to scrape out a profit instead of attracting participants.
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10-24-13 10:09 PM #148
I flat out refuse to buy a subscription, it is meant to be about $3 a day isn't it? Unless you've got the time it just becomes too much effort to hoard all of the videos, so I've dropped off the horses a fair bit. Added to that the difficulty of getting access to the knowledge required and it becomes tough to justify spending time looking at it instead of sports. I do some occasional work with a bookie on course, the amount the average mug loses is crazy. You really have to have all of the race replays to do the true form, and need to know the plans and fitness of your selection. The written form is too tough to go off (and I found a few times they would have typos, so a 5L loss was only meant to be 1.5, pretty big difference when you're analysing that form!). My family have a share in a few horses too, even getting good info of how your own horse is really going can be tough, the trainer never wants to tell you a horse can't win. Originally Posted by Dr.Gonzo
Having said that, with the new landscape of online bookies and good promotions, the carnival has become an attractive option again. The Double the Odds from Ladbrokes is generous, plus sportsbet always have good promotions.
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10-25-13 03:28 AM #149
Hi guys. Don't Mind the horses either although don't follow them much anymore. Will have a few quaddies and others during the spring. If you have some quaddies picks drop them out.
I like like sacred falls tomorrow.
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10-25-13 06:18 AM #150
Should have won, didn't handle the turn and lost his position but stormed home and wins next hop. Originally Posted by Dr.Gonzo
No luck on posted ATP plays at the moment, 0-3
Horse racing 25/10
Mooney Valley Race 8 no.1 Lucky Nine
Short price favorite Samaready comes into this race off a career peak rating, if she flattens out here Lucky Nine has the best form and should be winning.
Horse Racing 26/10
Mooney Valley Race 10 no.11 It's A Dundeel
There are 4 horses at single figure odds and I've marked 3 of them much longer than the market so that leaves It's A Dundeel as a dominate favorite on my ratings.
Sports.bet are running a moneyback promotion for 2nd & 3rd, if you're a hundred dollar punter I suggest you take that bet.
Cost me almost $30,000 missing that photo.
Had the Tri multiple times and the F4 with Lucky Nine and Samaready standout. F4 paid over 11k and it would have paid more with Lucky Nine winning.
Sick he's clearly the best horse, I never get a penetrating break
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10-25-13 04:07 PM #151
Tough break mate.
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10-25-13 09:24 PM #152
Very unlucky, the Valley turn takes another victim. That was the difference between 1st and 2nd, just knowing the brutal turn.
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10-28-13 02:42 AM #153
ATP Paris
1* Feliciano Lopez (2.20)
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10-28-13 02:45 AM #154
NFL Week 8
Rams +11.5
Double digit home dog on MNF.
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10-29-13 03:52 AM #155
Nice hit. I was on the under. Originally Posted by Dr.Gonzo
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10-29-13 06:50 AM #156
I watched the whole game boy can Robert Quinn get some sacks. Of fence was horrible by the Seahawks but luckily the defense of the rams turned up. I tailed for a unit thank you my friend Originally Posted by Dr.Gonzo
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11-10-13 09:40 AM #157
NFL
Packers ML (2.05)
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11-11-13 07:18 AM #158
Sorry for snapping at you, I thought you were making fun of me. I always welcome discussion with guys of your betting IQ. There are plenty of people who do clog up my thread but you most definitely aren't one of them...
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11-11-13 06:42 PM #159
No problem. Originally Posted by sando
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11-11-13 06:46 PM #160
Things didn't go to plan here. Originally Posted by Dr.Gonzo
TB ML (2.20) for tonight's game. Coach and players need a win and they get their chance at home.
Have them +8.5 in the final leg on some teasers so I'll be needing that cover.
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11-12-13 06:53 AM #161
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11-14-13 12:55 AM #162
Thanks RRH
Record update
NFL
ATS: 2-1
ML: 1-1 (+0.20)
ATP
1-3 (-1.80)
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11-14-13 07:20 PM #163
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11-16-13 06:51 PM #164
UFC 167
1* Parlay Evans @1.54 into GSP @1.43 for a return of $2.20
Sports.bet also offer a small promo, 4 leg parlay of >$4 will get a refund if you hit 3 legs. I added Perez @1.20 and Elliott @1.60 for a return of $4.23
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11-17-13 08:28 AM #165
Rugby League World Cup
England to reach finals @4.25
A Stu Feiner 10,000,000 dime play
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11-17-13 09:23 PM #166
NFL - Half Time
KC +10
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11-18-13 06:52 PM #167
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11-18-13 10:44 PM #168
Record update
NFL
ATS 4-1-1
ML 1-1(+0.20)
UFC
Parlays 1-0 (+1.20)
Good week on posted plays, went 3-0-1 and the position on England has been arbed, essentially another win.
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11-21-13 07:24 PM #169
NFL Week 12
ATL Falcons +8.5
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11-22-13 06:42 AM #170
I kept a little of the 4.25 on England in case I wanted to do something.
I'll take a unit on NZ 1-12 @3.15, so I've essentially got Eng +12.5.
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11-25-13 04:49 AM #171
I still think SBW is the best player in the world but Sam Burgess really stepped up in a big game against NZ, I will have to raise my opinion of him a little after that performance. James Graham was huge as well, deserves a mention. Originally Posted by sando
South's have addressed some personal areas I rightfully had grave concerns over last season, still have problems with them but I think they are probably Easts greatest threat to prevent a repeat.
For anyone interested in RLWC final, I'm leaning NZ with the points at first glance. They have a good profile for an underdog, coming out of a high level game against a team that hasn't had to enter second gear.Nomination(s):This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: sando
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11-25-13 06:25 PM #172
NFL Week 12
49ers -5
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11-25-13 11:01 PM #173
Record update
NFL
ATS 6-1-1
ML 1-1(+0.20)
RLWC
1-1 (+1.15)
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11-26-13 10:14 AM #174
hey gonzo and co. i just signed up the other day and started a thread in the cricket forum (which on reflection i should have perhaps started in this forum)
i noticed you guys talking about race replays for Melbourne/syd...i have devised a video database. which is pretty simple
their is a program which can be downloaded called wmconvertor which records any stream your computer plays (so as a result i always have it turned off otherwise it might record some compromising things
) but after any race meeting i want to record.
i go to the race replays site start the stream - it automatically starts downloading as soon as it plays then click through to the next race.
so it literally only takes 1 minute to click on all 8 races to start the dl process of the whole meet.
then i placed them into folders sorted by track and date.
if you are doing this you might want to invest in a external hard drive though.
forget paying the ridiculous price for a service that should be free!Last edited by aylukeay; 11-26-13 at 10:23 AM.
Points Awarded:
Dr.Gonzo gave aylukeay 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.
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11-26-13 05:42 PM #175
Good post mate, they already got me for the two hundred though. Originally Posted by aylukeay
hey gonzo and co. i just signed up the other day and started a thread in the cricket forum (which on reflection i should have perhaps started in this forum)
i noticed you guys talking about race replays for Melbourne/syd...i have devised a video database. which is pretty simple
their is a program which can be downloaded called wmconvertor which records any stream your computer plays (so as a result i always have it turned off otherwise it might record some compromising things) but after any race meeting i want to record.
i go to the race replays site start the stream - it automatically starts downloading as soon as it plays then click through to the next race.
so it literally only takes 1 minute to click on all 8 races to start the dl process of the whole meet.
then i placed them into folders sorted by track and date.
if you are doing this you might want to invest in a external hard drive though.
forget paying the ridiculous price for a service that should be free!
Welcome to the forum.
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