[RobertPaulson]

Welcome All.

This is an official thread for the 2012 ITM Cup season. Any news, information, picks, constructive criticism and general ITM cup talk can be posted here. I will tend to the thread and try to have any info up in a timely manner. I'm no expert, but can say that I have a fair amount of Rugby Union knowledge (sans the northern hemisphere crap, lol) and it's probably my best sport to invest in....If we all work together, I believe we'll have a successful (and profitable) season.

For most general info you should be able to find it here: http://www.itmcup.co.nz/

Good luck everyone.

[RobertPaulson]

Got home late from work so no time to look at Manawatu v Wellingon, game's already kicked off so may try to get a live play in.

[RobertPaulson]

Wellington turning on the heat....this is getting ugly.

[Mase of Base]

Nice start to the punting season.

Did mention I liked Tasman with the start in the next but can't pull trigger especially now seeing Wellington deal with Manawatu easily and Auckland jumping out to that big early lead. Canterbury could cruise past that spread in the first half if they click as they're a class above them in nearly all positions. Canterbury have Ellis, G Whitelock and Crotty on the bench who would walk onto all other teams in this competition.

If this game was played in a few weeks the spread would be in the 20+ range so could be a chance to get Canterbury early, again this is a derby match and about the only one Tasman seem to turn up for each season especially at home. I do struggle to see how Tasman are going to get many points on the board, their backs don't look as strong as previous years and Canterbury are always very difficult to score against.

[RobertPaulson]

Canterbury v Tasman are bad games to bet on. What should happen usually doesn't happen, Cantabs should win comfortably If they want to....I like Robbie Fruean to score a try, but NOT playing it.

[RobertPaulson]

Thanks Mase, yea i would like to have backed Tasman also but I just get the feeling that Canterbury will want to make a statement tonight and 14.5pts just won't be much if they do and especially after Wellingtons cruise...You're right about their ability to score (and trys as penalties ain't gonna cut it), so no thanks, i'll just watch the game.

[RobertPaulson]

Both teams have no qualms taking 55+ metre penalties, both attempts miss but no issue with the distance

[Mase of Base]

Damn should be 3/3 but have first week jitters and only pulled trigger on one.

Canterbury were dreadful last night, could be a good spot to fade them in the early stages.

I'm off to the early game today Bay of Plenty v Taranaki.
I think the Bay can stay within the spread of +6.5 if not win outright. Play well at home in Mt Maunganui and although the Taranaki side looks solid all across the park the Bay guys aren't far behind. Noakes has no problems slotting goals from anywhere can see the Bay putting a few points up this way, both backlines look good Taylor for taranaki and Masaga for BoP are game changers, I hope it's the latter that does the damage.

Bay of Plenty +6.5

[RobertPaulson]

Yea for sure, not surprised that Tasman won SU even lol....Canterbury need to get their act together if they wanna have a chance to repeat but i'd prefer they didn't lol.

Bay of Plenty v Taranaki could be another interesting game, agree with you there also Mase but I can't play BoP spread at the price i'm getting, post up from the game if you can or let us know how it goes afterwards. May try to get on a line live if possible.

Playing Lelia Masaga to score a try 0.5x @ 2.00

[Mase of Base]

Yea for sure, not surprised that Tasman won SU even lol....Canterbury need to get their act together if they wanna have a chance to repeat but i'd prefer they didn't lol.

Bay of Plenty v Taranaki could be another interesting game, agree with you there also Mase but I can't play BoP spread at the price i'm getting, post up from the game if you can or let us know how it goes afterwards. May try to get on a line live if possible.

Playing Lelia Masaga to score a try 0.5x @ 2.00

Nice, Masaga got the first try.

Bay look average, Taranaki could open them up second half. Everytime they kick it away Taranaki look like scoring there should be a few tries from the 'Naki backs in the second half. Odd game there isn't much intensity both seem to be in pre season mode still. Not sure why Noakes isn't kicking Lynn is 1-4 which isn't helping my pick at all!

Half time start is 13.5, kinda like the Naki with that they look far more likely to score.

[RobertPaulson]

No play on Otago v Northland....Otago should get the win though.

[Mase of Base]

No play on Otago v Northland....Otago should get the win though.

Went HT/FT Otago, even with this lead I'm not confident. If Northland stop dropping the ball constantly they can easily come back here.

[RobertPaulson]

Went HT/FT Otago, even with this lead I'm not confident. If Northland stop dropping the ball constantly they can easily come back here.

Should be ok, Otago had their little lapse. Their class above will win it.

[RobertPaulson]

No play on North Harbour v Waikato.....Would like to see both teams play a "real" game before investing in either of them.

[RobertPaulson]

Southland ml 1x

[TBsp75]

y'all like the auckland on wednesday? canterbury always start slow no matter it's super or itm

[RobertPaulson]

Yea they looked pretty average at times...Possibly on the spread +6.5, but I don't like that Canterbury lost and that Braid's out. Have to look at it more.

[Darkside Magick]

Anybody feeling welligton -12.5 over hawkes bay...I feel they cover..just cant pull the trigger

[easysaid]

4x - Wellington vs Hawkes Bay Game Total u53.5 points
2x - Canterbury -6.5

Gotta love the poor capping from NZ Tab last week haha!

[TBsp75]

should becareful with the total with the new 5 sec ruck rule. easy to go over. especially with a fast pace team like wellington

[RobertPaulson]

Yep, i'm feeling it. Not gonna over think things...Wellington -12.5 1x.

Good luck on the under easysaid.

[RobertPaulson]

should becareful with the total with the new 5 sec ruck rule. easy to go over. especially with a fast pace team like wellington

This....I'm weary of totals at this stage because of the new 5 second rule, have noticed a bit that the halfback pretty much puts hands on ball and delivers as soon as "5 seconds" is spoken by the ref.

[RobertPaulson]

Wellington sucking big time, Hawkes Bay playing real well....I'd be very surprised if Wellington cover let alone win su.

[easysaid]

Cashed both our bets, typical homedog secondhalf. Lets get on canterbury -6!!

[TeamTT]

Nice thread, haven't had a chance to watch any ITM this season...will try to catch some games this weekend...

Saw the NRL last night....Monday night football at its best..Sharks had it..the 2.5 points was mine >_<...then it was gone

[Balco10]

Blues cover the +6.5 as Canterbury has too many banged up!

[RobertPaulson]

Nice cashes last night on the Wellington game.....Taking Auckland +6.5 1x, think they can keep it close if not win su.

[Balco10]

score please...

[RobertPaulson]

20-11 Canterbury HT

[Balco10]

close game

[Balco10]

score??

[RobertPaulson]

23-11 Can 56mins.....Def not looking good for Auckland, just can't do anything right.

[RobertPaulson]

Should have just gone with my initial lean of Canterbury but O well, such is this business.....Bay of Plenty -4.5 1x

[Mase of Base]

Bay of Plenty v Otago tonight.
Pretty windy on the coast here tonight (enough for it to effect the game), Rotorua is an hour inland from me but I'd say there would still be a decent breeze around there come kick off. Both sides have good kickers in open play and the new Otago guy was lights out on his place kicks, Lynn was the opposite and Noakes may not play I haven't heard yet.

Couple of big additions for each side: Ben Smith for Otago is huge, All Blacks at this level are far to good especially current ones that just played well for the All blacks. And Sam Cane for BoP giving Bay of Plenty a very impressive looking loose forward combination (Cane, Latimer, Braid).

I'm going to go with Bay of Plenty in this one, they were pretty decent against Taranaki after a bad start and it was too many points to make up in the end, had that Barrett intercept gone to a Bay player not a run away try it would of been a very different ball game. Northland created enough to really trouble Otago and I expect BoP to do much more than that they just need better execution in the opposition 22 which was severely lacking last week.

Going to avoid the ML and go with a smaller play on BoP HT/FT at a bit over evens ($2.05).

[RobertPaulson]

No play for Hawkes Bay V Counties. Won't be able to post til later.