[brettels]

Continued from the successful AFL opening spreads of 2011(thanks gee)...this is a thread for everyone to discuss and post picks or ask questions.

Thought it could be kicked off now that the round 1 odds are open!

2012 AFL fixtures here

Round 1 odds

GWS 14.00 vs Sydney 1.02

Richmond 3.50 vs Carlton 1.30

Hawthorn 2.05 vs Collingwood 1.77

Melbourne 1.50 vs Brisbane 2.55

Gold Coast 3.75 vs Adelaide 1.27

Fremantle 2.15 vs Geelong 1.70

North Melbourne 1.95 vs Essendon 1.85

Western Bulldogs 2.15 vs West Coast 1.70

Port Adelaide 3.30 vs St. Kilda 1.33

[Gee]

Hey Brettels.

I haven't even looked at a single thing AFL yet. You are miles ahead of me.

Whatever the preseason comp is has to be at least 6 weeks away right?? Start of March?

I usually don't bet the pre-season and I'll use that to start really getting ready for the season.

I'm interested to see what the books do with GWS overs in the first month. I think they will get the spread right after last year, but I think the over will still be good. In the first 10 games, the Suns went under 200 once.

I think the highest i saw ANY total last year was about 206 (richmond/essendon??). Thats from memory though, so i could well be wrong, but it doesn't get much higher than that.

[therealdealau]

no matter what the line is auto betting hawks > pies first round and the ml

west coast also seems too easy for first round - if they have a strong squad first round they could be an easy play

i also support freo, i'm a member i go to every home game - i'm going to put 10 units on them to make the 8 at -110

new coach, defensively minded, hopefully a healthy lineup, i think lyon will be smarter than harvey and we should have a strong enough line up to finish the year much stronger than last, i also think the new recruits and clarke/sandi combo is going to be deadly i hope they use them the same way westcoast use nic/cox

would love to hear your thoughts on freo if you guys have any!

[brettels]

NAB cup starts feb. 17 ..... NAB grand final is March 17

Round 1 premiership season starts with GWS introduction on 24th of march, then the next weekend has the rest of the games.

Didn't geelong score more than that themselves against melbourne last year. 206 was beaten as a total in alot of games.

[brettels]

geelong 233 defeated melbourne 47 haha

[donkson]

I'm interested to see what the books do with GWS overs in the first month. I think they will get the spread right after last year, but I think the over will still be good. In the first 10 games, the Suns went under 200 once. I think the highest i saw ANY total last year was about 206 (richmond/essendon??). Thats from memory though, so i could well be wrong, but it doesn't get much higher than that.

They probably won't be stupidly high because they'll be expecting GWS to score like 15 points.

[benrama]

G'day Brettels, looking forward to this thread in 2012. WCE and Geelong are pretty much an auto-play at those odds for R1, and I expect those lines to drop to more like $1.50-$1.60 before kick-off. I think Freo fans are in for some early disappointment, Lyon is so defensively orientated - part of why I don't mind seeing him going from my Saints - that it'll take some time for the Dockers to adjust to his style.

As for GWS, well their games will be basically unbettable until at least 5-6 rounds in, interested to see what they get their team totals set at - I think the under there will be the only thing I'll look at.

I actually quite like the NAB cup and I think it gives more indicators to R1 and the whole season (e.g. WCE in 2011) than what others do - at this stage I'll take any bloody football!

[brettels]

Gary Ablett Jr on a stamp, now thats news!!! http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/af...-1226248764873

[brettels]

AFL Futures

My favourite safe odds to make top 8 currently Hawthorn 1.18 & Carlton 1.25 ..... safe

Premiership - Hawthorn 6.50 I think its there year at the moment

[benrama]

If you treated sports investment like a standard investment portfolio, you'd be all over those Hawthorn 1.18 top 8's (and the Storm top 8 one at similar odds in the NRL), I just don't like my money being tied up for that long. Plus you have to subtract from those odds the opportunity cost of having your money in a 6% interest account for the year.

[brettels]

If you treated sports investment like a standard investment portfolio, you'd be all over those Hawthorn 1.18 top 8's (and the Storm top 8 one at similar odds in the NRL), I just don't like my money being tied up for that long. Plus you have to subtract from those odds the opportunity cost of having your money in a 6% interest account for the year.

**edited post

I get ya, but in the end after a monthly pay from an interest earning account you'd still earn more on the 1.18....

[brettels]

say you put $5,000 on each, you would make 500+ more on the hawk bet

[brettels]

Still around LTS??? points for odds screenshots uploaded again!

[alias69]

brissie against the dees ats looks a gud value bet. lions do ok against the dees here. if its around 3-4 goals, jump on it. bol

[brettels]

brissie against the dees ats looks a gud value bet. lions do ok against the dees here. if its around 3-4 goals, jump on it. bol

Why do you think this Alias?

[kingsr]

Great thread! AFL is an easier sport to predict than league. So much unexpected surprises in league, im almost tempted to not touch the reg season and just play AFL.

I dont care what the line is in the Sydney Vs GWS game 1st round, im taking sydney even if the line is 100!

Frremantle will be a team to watch in 2012, they have a better team than west coast, but injuries have been a concern for them in the past. If they can retain a fairly healthy side (unlike 2011) I see them definitely with a good chance to make the 8. Great odds on them atm.

[kingsr]

Brettels, get on HAWKS Top 4, its paying a ridiculous $2.00 with TAB...everywhere else is $1.65!

[donkson]

how do fremantle have a better team than WC?

[kingsr]

Better Players.

[brettels]

Lets not over react!

[donkson]

lol.

[kingsr]

Of course people will be blinded by the ladder positions they finished last year. Anyway the season is almost upon us...I suppose we will see.

[garygroundwork]

freo are so unpredictable...i hate putting money on them.

[donkson]

yeah results are terrible indicators of strength.

[brettels]

Now seriously, get on richmond @4.00 to make the 8, better than freo! Put a lazy 5k on it and thank me later.

[donkson]

btw if anyone still want to take Hawthorn for the premiership, I saw you can get 6.30 at 5D which is way higher than anyone else.

[brettels]

anticipation

[brettels]

Friday night opening nab cup matches

Richmond vs Nth melbourne
2.00 1.75

Nth Melbourne vs Hawthorn
2.80 1.40

Hawthorn vs Richmond
1.36 3.00

TABsportsbet odds

[donkson]

meh.

unless the lines are set weird because of 40min games + supergoals, don't think I'll touch the round robins.

[brettels]

I don't think many people do donkson, still excited to get some sort of footy even though i hate the way the NAB is run.

[stuckinlondon]

Any thoughts on NAB winner though? May be some value on someone like a Carlton (9.00 @ Centrebet) looking to win something and taking it more seriously than Collingwood, Hawthorn and Geelong?

[brettels]

Difficult to tell who will take the NAB serious this year London! Will get more of an idea when we know who will be playing or not! I think it will be easier when the full matches start instead of the round robins! That said I've never bet a futures on the NAB cup in my life!

[Gee]

I'm not taking the NAB cup seriously at all.

Does it start this weekend?

Could not give a **** about it. Ridiculous competition with clown rules. They may as well play under the big top. I'll only be watching it because I have to as part of my trying to figure out where each team is at. AFL is one game that you cannot survive on stats.

I will not be starting looking through anything in any depth though until early March. That gives me 3 weeks until season proper starts, which will be more than enough time.

[brettels]

Gee, you know you want to! there will be some money to be made after these round robins! I've decided to be a degenerate and make some bets during the NAB!

[brettels]

Sportal is one of my favourite sites to read a preview, here is a cut and paste of there summary in their preview for friday nights encounter between hawks, tigers and roos.

WE THINK:
Finding good form in the NAB Cup should be a priority for Hawthorn. They have had four months to stew over their heartbreaking preliminary final loss to Collingwood and will need to be hitting their straps at the start of the season with the Magpies and Geelong confronting them in the opening two rounds. Hawks fans will be excited to see Adelaide recruit Jack Gunston pull on the brown and gold after he booted four goals in a practice match in Launceston last week. Richmond will attack the NAB Cup with a more experienced line-up this season, a different approach to that the club has taken in recent years. However, the Tigers have said they would make fine-tuning their tinkered game plan a priority over winning in the NAB Cup. Part of that will be adapting to having an extra senior ruckman with former Crow Ivan Maric set to boost their big man stocks. The pre-season will also be the perfect test of how far young gun midfielders Trent Cotchin and Dustin Martin have developed. North Melbourne will field a strong side and coach Brad Scott will be eager to show they've developed since finishing ninth in 2011. Both Todd Goldstein and Hamish McIntosh are fit and firing and that means the Roos have two dominant ruckman and should control stoppages. It's not known whether having them in the same team would make North too top heavy but Friday night should give us an insight. The Kangas believe small forward Lindsay Thomas has resolved the kicking yips that saw him boot 21.36 last year. He managed an impressive 4.1 at windy old Ballarat earlier this month but will old habits return under the Etihad Stadium roof? With Drew Petrie, Lance Franklin and Jack Riewoldt pulling on the boots each side will boast ample goal-kicking ability. However, Hawthorn, favourites to lift the trophy, should have too much class across the ground for both the Tigers and Roos.

read the full preview here ARTICLE