[Alt75]

Thought I'd start my own thread to keep track for the rest of the year, see how I fare against the other Aussies on SBR and share my picks, what I feel to be the correct play for a game and the reasoning behind it. Currently I have about $45 in SportingBet and $78 in Sportsbet. My aim is to never have to cash in again and to obviously make consistent gains throughout the season.

AFL Round 2: Saturday evening games

Gold Coast vs Carlton

Gold Coast being the new team obviously clear underdogs although they appeared to be good defensively in the pre-seaon although they weren't full length games. Carlton from memory seem to play well at the GABBA so I think the Blues will get home. Not sure if I'm comfortable picking the EV line like -31.5. Want to see how Gold Coast perform before making any serious play on or against them. BOM has a chance of late storms in Brisbane with Gold Coasts strong defense and possible wet weather & humid conditions should be conducive to a low scoring game. I think I will take under 177.5 @ $1.90

Fremantle vs Geelong

Freo coming off a trip to Brisbane and a lucky win over this seasons bunnies the Lions, the Cats had a hard fought tight battle and have a few omissions and had to travel too. So I think Freo will just get up at home.
Fremantle 1-39 @ $2.30

NRL Round 4 Saturday evening games

Looks like I missed the start of the Raiders v Titans.

Parramatta vs North Queensland.

North Queensland have looked strong this year, diposed of Storm easily. Parra have lost to Souths and Penrith and only a win over winless NZ.

North Queensland Straight Win @ $2.10

Just playing these as a single unit in a Trixie: 1 x 3 leg multi and 3 x 2 leg multi.
$4 to return $22.79

Hopefully I start this thread 3-0

----- edit -----

Parra wins by 2
Carlton vs Suns score is over 177.5 in the 3rd Quarter.
Freo v Geelong game is a dead leg.


Not off to a good start.

[Alt75]

Bulldogs vs Lions
As much as it pains me as a supporter Lions have no chance here without J Brown, Fevola and Bradshaw gone and the rest of the exodus Lions are severely lacking in depth, no forward line and will have no direction. This will probably be a complete rout like what Pies and Blues handed out yesterday. Could be the third 10+ goal belting for the round.

I'm playing it relatively safe and am picking Bulldogs -24.5 @ $1.42

Bombers vs Swans
Think the Bombers will get up over the Swans. Bombers @ $1.95

Hawks vs Demons
Going with the Demons @ $3

Despite my poor tipping last night, had a small win on NCAABB & MMA this morning I'm gonna back my picks and just go with a small play in a standard multi. $2 @ $8.31


My picks in this afternoons NRL
Cronulla $2.20
St George $1.56
Sydney $1.35

Have these 3 in a 9 leg parlay with Bulldogs -24.5, Bombers +24.5, Demons +24.5 in AFL and 3 winning legs from this mornings fights in Bellator.

[sportscash]

There is money for the Bombers but i am sticking with the Swans

[Alt75]

Should be a close one, that's why I took the +24.5 handicap in both my underdog picks in my "picks for the day" parlay.

Hille out for the Bombers.

[Alt75]

Dammit, Warriors beat Cronulla and get their first win for the season.
Swans get up in the last few minutes and beat Bombers. AFL parlay is dead.

Fortunately I'm up around $5 on from the NCAABB and MMA parlay. Better luck on the footy next week hopefully.

[Alt75]

Poor week of AFL/NRL tipping last week, hoping I do considerably better this week. Despite virtually throwing away money on WTA, NBA and MLB games nearly every day this week, fortunately my balance over the two books is up to $140 from last weeks balance of around $123 after a bit of luck playing shrapnel on a few longshots on the trots.

AFL picks

• Collingwood(W)
• Bulldogs
• Adelaide
• Hawthorn
• West Coast
• Melbourne
• Geelong
• Essendon

NRL picks

• Cowboys(W)
• Rabbitohs(L)
• Roosters
• Manly
• Penrith
• Melbourne
• Dragons
• Broncos

------------

Bets placed so far

Friday night games

Collingwood -27.5
North Queensland +13
Rabbitohs 1-12

Line/Margin Trixie $4 to return 37.27

------------

Blues and Suns get thrashed Multi

Western Bulldogs -99.5 & Collingwood -60 Multi: $1 @ $21.56 - loss

Thinking about $25 on Collingwood -15.5

-----------

post game edit: phew that was damn close for the line, Collingwood by 28, though the dumbasses at sportingbet have it down as a loss.

second edit: Just realised NQ only won by 10. Thought they'd beaten the -12.5 line so a loss

North Queensland - loss
Collingwood - win
Rabbitohs get smashed - loss

-----------

AFL Saturday 9th

Bulldogs -59.5 @ 1.50
Adelaide -16.5 @ 2.00

$5 @ $3.00 2 leg multi

[Alt75]

Didn't get to post this morning or catch any of the footy or mma, good to see I did a little better for this round.

Single - AFL - Round 3 - Matches
Melbourne v Brisbane - Melbourne - $5 Win - Pick Your Own Line (-20.5) LOSS

Single - NRL - Round 5 - Matches
Pick The Line - Melbourne Storm - Melbourne Storm - $5 Win - Pick The Line (-3.5) $7.50

Leg 1 - 10/04/2011 11:00:13 AM - Geelong vs Port Adelaide - Triple Margin 15.5 - (Straight) Geelong Over 15.5 Points @ 1.19
Leg 2 - 10/04/2011 11:00:13 AM - St Kilda vs Essendon - (Straight) Essendon @ 1.95
$5 @ $2.32 WIN $11.61

[therealdealau]

great bet on the bombers champ
who do you barrack for?

[Alt75]

Cheers Sir. I barrack for the Lions, old Fitzroy supporter in Melbourne.

I was a bit rattled from losing some cash during the week on greedy multi's on sports I don't really follow that intently, partly from following other punters here and betting on the hotter chicks in the WTA wasn't very bright either, so went very cautious this weekend, fortunately though I got a $30 multi on strikeforce/bellator and an another $18 multi on a mix of footy games, mma fights and the horse black caviar that I tossed a dollar on and made up for my stupid bets, so I'm up to around $160. I need to stick with more straight bets especially with lines/margins and only play the margins/lines on games I'm 100% confident about and have done my homework properly on.

[Alt75]

Picking Brisbane in a close one, not game to risk a line in the wet weather. Could be low scoring with a drop goal killing the line by 1 and ending the match by an odd margin under a converted try. Might chuck a dollar on Brisbane by 3 at $81 for shits and giggles.

Brisbane vs Newcastle - Match Winner & Total Double: (Straight) Brisbane & Under 40.5 $5.00 @ 2.80 WIN
Return $14

Brisbane Exact margin (3) at $81 LOSS -$1

[Alt75]

South Sydney vs St George - Line & Total Double: (Straight) St George -5.5 & Under 41.5 $5.00 @ 3.60
Return $18
St George Illawarra Dragons - St George Illawarra Dragons Pick The Line (-3.5) $10.00 @ 1.72
Return $17.20

South Sydney Rabbitohs v St George Illawarra Dragons - Dragons by 16 - $1 Win - Exact Winning Margin $1.00 @ 26.00
Return $26

Outlay $16 - Return $61.20

[Alt75]

Been slack posting my picks and keeping my spreadhseet up to date the past week or so.
Balance is just over $200 now.

Thursdays bets

NBA
3 Leg Margin Multi @ $31.67
(1-10) Miami @ 2.55
(1-10) Memphis @ 4.60 - spurs win in ot
(1-10) Oklahoma City @ 2.70

(Straight) Memphis +11.5 & Under 194.5 @ 1.95 -
*includes overtime* ******* spurs score a 3 to tie with 1.7 seconds to go and send it to over time.

1H Under Multi
Multi - NBA Playoffs - Round 1 - 27th April Matchup
Memphis Grizzlies at San Antonio Spurs - Under | MULTI Odds: 3.72 - $5 Win - 1st Half Points - Over/Under (<94.0)
Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder - Under - Win - 1st Half Points - Over/Under (<103.5) (Pending)

_______________________________________

AFL

West Coast Eagles 1-39 @ $2.25

[binomial]

nasty loss on both nba multis, damn. memphis looked liked they had it under control with a couple minutes to go. i had the clowns +7 and ended up with a push.

GL with WC looks the play.

[Alt75]

Cheers, yeah that was cruel.
I was somewhat dancing in my seat thinking I'd hit the line/total double and 2 legs on the margin multi, just had to ride out the okc/den game (which bloody well came good) but then that literal last second 3 pt sunk, took it to OT which killed the under. Would have been $11 into $60 for the day. At least I hit the 1H multi and come out in front. That's all I ask for, small consistent gains from small stakes.

btw I noticed today sportsbet have the 1h totals slightly higher than all the sponsored books on sbrodds, shame the nba season is wrapping up, hopefully it's the same next season, might be something to exploit.

[Alt75]

Few other bets on tonights AFL game.

HT/FT Double - West Coast / West Coast $5 @ $2.05

First Goalscorer / Winning Margin Double - Mark Le Cras [WC]/West Coast 25+ $1 @ $26.00

Daniel Kerr: Most Possessions $1 @ $15.00

Out of group:

• Matthew Priddis
• Brent Moloney
• Andrew Embley
• Colin Sylvia
• Matthew Rosa
• Daniel Kerr
• Jack Trengove
• Aaron Davey

[Domestic]

Good luck tonight, I took the under 181.5.

[binomial]

decided to play melbourne 1-39 $3.30.

seems generous, although i expect wc to win.

[Alt75]

decided to play melbourne 1-39 $3.30.

seems generous, although i expect wc to win.

Bad luck mate, shame you didn't take Eagles 40+ at $4.65. Wish I had have thrown a few bucks on that.

Thanks to the HT/FT dub I'm up a little.

Balance now $213

Friday's bets

AFL
Sydney 1-39

Not sure about NRL yet, Brisbane -3.5 pyol is what I'm leaning towards, need to read up.

Thinking I'm having nothing to do with Souths Cronulla game.

_________________

NBA

New Orleans +10.5 & Under 187.5 $5 @ 1.91 Lakers by 18, should have just taken the under.

No bet on Mavs Blazers game.

[binomial]

yeah so much for my hunch melbourne might play well. worst effort i can recall in ages.

WB look in trouble against collingwood with HHH outs: Hudson, Hall and Higgins. Plus they are coming back from a tough game in perth. some talk of rain but i am not sure that would help them too much.

GL with your NBA bet. personally would have taken the lakers side with the under. saw the previous game and hornets looked like they were fading.

[Alt75]

yeah so much for my hunch melbourne might play well. worst effort i can recall in ages.

WB look in trouble against collingwood with HHH outs: Hudson, Hall and Higgins. Plus they are coming back from a tough game in perth. some talk of rain but i am not sure that would help them too much.

GL with your NBA bet. personally would have taken the lakers side with the under. saw the previous game and hornets looked like they were fading.

Thanks

I didn't see the footy last night, surprised to read this morning Melbourne were basically smashed from siren to siren. I figured it'd be competitive with Melbourne possibly fading late. While WCE aren't a powerhouse I would think the younger inexperienced teams are more likely going to get blown out by WCE due to their midfield, coming off byes, fatigue, cramping late etc rather than WCE being upset at home by the likes Melbourne, Richmond, North Melbourne etc.

Yeah I like the Pies +40 and maybe even +60 this weekend, Essendon +100 over the Suns is a possibility too.

I think Lakers will win but it won't be another 16 point blowout like the other night, not on Hornets home court (I could be completely wrong of course). I like these super line and total doubles on sportingbet. Since the bookies are pretty spot on with the standard lines and totals, the extra points on the spread and total give a nice buffer that's worth the risk of 2 legs.

Might take Dallas +8.5 & Under 187.5 in the next game

[Alt75]

Might be being a bit cheeky here with these 2 multi's but I'm not gambling vital organs so what the heck.

Brisbane vs Canterbury - Match Winner & Total Double - (Straight) Brisbane & Under 39.5 @ 3.00
Sydney vs Carlton - (1-39) Sydney
$3 @ $7.43 to return 22.29


Brisbane vs Canterbury - (1-12) Brisbane
Sydney vs Carlton - (1-39) Sydney
$2 @ 6.75 to return $13.50

good one swans you shitbirds

[Brian891]

feel bad for aussie bettors. what a crapshoot. home field means nothing. better luck to u i hope.

[Alt75]

feel bad for aussie bettors. what a crapshoot. home field means nothing. better luck to u i hope.

Thanks Brian, as with all sports, stats like a side not winning in a state/city for 18 years, recent performances etc can mean nothing when at the end of the day it comes down to who plays better ball on the day and how other things like umpiring fall in their favour, plus in AFL wet weather games can become a coin flip.

Fortunately I'm a small stakes hobbyist, I can handle the losses, my ego just hates being wrong and being greedy on multis and relying on the same outcome over numerous multi's isn't wise, but I keep doing it.

[Brian891]

any plays for tonight? i go very small, but rely on writeups on various sites due to my lack of familiarity. almost everyone was confident in sydney, not because of long years streak against blues, but because of form, and the fact that sydney lost its last home game and they were tough on that pitch. thats what i was referring to. i am 1-3 so far in tails. bad luck king. good luck tonight if u have any wagers!

[Alt75]

If you're gonna follow us Aussies on the straight wins of who we pick for the 1-39 margins, if your book has prop odds of either team under 39 I would take that, especially in wet weather, not as good value, but at least then you're covered in case of an upset.

Today's not a really good day for betting on AFL games IMO, maybe some of the others can weigh in. I haven't done my homework on the ins and outs of the sides.

North Melbourne vs Port. North coming off 4 straight losses, Port got beat by the new team in the competition at home, should come out hard, but typically don't play well in Melbourne. I'd expect North 1-39 to be the most likely outcome, but Port could get thrashed or get one of their few wins for the season coming out fired up after losing a game they should have won last week.

Richmond vs Brisbane
Two young inexperienced sides. Brisbane coming off a bye and travelling 1600km's to Melbourne.
Same as above, Richmond 1-39 would be my pick, yet Lions could fold and get smashed or get the win.

Adelaide and St.Kilda
As most of the other Aussies will agree with, these 2 sides are probably the most consistently inconsistent this year. It's a coin flip who wins, margin, no idea. Stay away.

[alias69]

i think the north game will go over the 197.5. bol

[Alt75]

I think I might stick with league today.

Melbourne Storm will probably thrash Newcastle after being beaten by the Warriors last week. Storm always bounce back hard after a loss. It could get real ugly for the Knights.

Storm -9 or -12.5 or even -19.5

North Queensland Cowboys -3.5 over Manly should be a safe even money bet.

[Brian891]

thanks alt. good luck on your plays!

[Alt75]

You're welcome mate, cheers and best of luck if you decide to follow me, you'll need it

[Alt75]

I've decided that North are due for a win, Port sucks, Roos and Tigers will probably cover.

Gonna chance a shiny penny on todays picks in a 4 leg multi.

North Melbourne ( -17.5) @ 2.00
Richmond ( -19.5) @ 2.00
Melbourne Storm -10.5 @ 2.25
North Qld ( -3.5) @ 2.00
$1 @ $18.00

Nth Queensland Cowboys -3.5 @ 2.10 $4.00 to return $8.40

Melbourne Storm -8.5 @ $2.05 $3.00 to return $6.15

Exact Winning Margin Melbourne Storm by 26: $1.00 @ $31.00
I'm predicting a 36-10 win to Storm.

[dRavidC]

LOL why are you betting winning margin? that's such a low percentage play...

[Alt75]

I'm a Storm fan, $1 for shits and giggles on gut instinct and see post #11. I'm 1-0 from exact margins on NRL.

You're the guy who basically blindly plays totals right? Didn't even know J Brown was out before you played Brisbane in an over? That's a ******* "LOL" I don't really think you of all people should be questioning or "LOL'ing" at my methods son. I have a higher % at exact margins than you do at totals.

In the future unless you have something useful to add to my thread please refrain from posting in here. Questioning a $1 fun bet is inane.

[dRavidC]

I'm a Storm fan, $1 for shits and giggles on gut instinct and see post #11. I'm 1-0 from exact margins on NRL.

You're the guy who basically blindly plays totals right? Didn't even know J Brown was out before you played Brisbane in an over? That's a ******* "LOL" I don't really think you of all people should be questioning or "LOL'ing" at my methods son. I have a higher % at exact margins than you do at totals.

In the future unless you have something useful to add to my thread please refrain from posting in here. Questioning a $1 fun bet is inane.

buddy. i'm not trying to criticise you or anything. what i'm trying to say is instead of putting in $1 for exact margin betting you could put that $1 into another play such as handicapping which is a higher percentage play (i.e. safer play). so say for example melbourne -6.5 @ 1.90. instead of putting just 2 put 3 instead of using that dollar for exact margin betting.

sorry if my comment was offensive to you in any way because that was not my intention.

well congratulations on getting the exact margin right for the other game. and good luck with your plays in the NRL tonight.

[Alt75]

buddy. i'm not trying to criticise you or anything. what i'm trying to say is instead of putting in $1 for margin betting you could put that $1 into another play such as handicapping. so say for example melbourne -6.5 @ 1.90. instead of putting just 2 put 3 instead of using that dollar for exact margin betting.

sorry if my comment was offensive to you in any way because that was not my intention.

well congratulations on getting the exact margin right for the other game. and good luck with your plays in the NRL tonight.

Wasn't offensive, I just took it as unwarranted criticism, apology accepted and sorry for being a smart ass, it's kind of in my nature and beer talking.

I get what your point is, logically yes it's likely a stupid low percentage bet and I'm potentially just tossing a dollar away. I don't play exact margins on every game, let alone every Storm or Lions game weekly, if I have a gut feeling and think **** I'll kick myself if it comes off and I'm too tight to toss a dollar on it, as a hobbyist I have $200 to play with and I don't bet more than 5% of my balance per day if there's bets worth making on sports I follow, my other bets if they come off will cover it and I'll end up in front, if not *shrugs* I'm a dollar down there's always another day.

Thanks for your well wishes and best of luck with your bets today.

[binomial]

GL with your picks. cant get too excited about anything tonight myself.