[cbiscuit]

because he is a anchor anywhere but Churchill Downs

jk I dunno

Calvin did not help ROC chances today. If he wasn't so keen on his rail-skimming rides and sent ROC outside 10 seconds earlier, he could have hit board. He stormed home once outside.

[cbiscuit]

you don't think danza carrying 8 more pounds vs last race just 3 weeks ago wont affect him?

im pretty green at this but I seen danza tiring bigtime from the extra weight. Rest of the field has been carrying 122-124 regularly


I know you are big on Wildcat Red but seems GenArod has been within a head with WR the last 3 Head to head races....seem interchangeable horses

Your lean toward GenArod was wise regardless of outcome, better price, better pedigree for this and you knew WildRed was an easy toss after hideous works. Aneed the lead type horse toiling on CD track a few days before big race = not good.

[mikemca]

Calvin did not help ROC chances today. If he wasn't so keen on his rail-skimming rides and sent ROC outside 10 seconds earlier, he could have hit board. He stormed home once outside.

Need to watch the race some more but there were several hidden good efforts.

Your lean toward GenArod was wise regardless of outcome, better price, better pedigree for this and you knew WildRed was an easy toss after hideous works. Aneed the lead type horse toiling on CD track a few days before big race = not good.

I think if anything this race went to show that all the workout hype by drf and others isn't too important.The top two supposedly looked bad while all the hype on Medal Count and Intense Holiday was just that.

[TonyP]

hear there was a stong head wind in the stretch so the times are not as good in the KD as they would have been without the strong wind, also the performace was fairly strong

[dballard125]

hear there was a stong head wind in the stretch so the times are not as good in the KD as they would have been without the strong wind, also the performace was fairly strong

I was on the backside yesterday, and this is true. There was a 20-25 mph headwind in the stretch all day.

[TonyP]

it also looked to me like when he was asked to go he went then when Espinoza looked back seen no one challenging he rode out with plenty in tank for preakness.

[harthebar]

You are so right, he went from post 19 to rail and top of stretch he went from rail back to post 19, and he ran into about 5-6 horses in the back, and the 3 at top of strectch, that made him swing wide, he should of raced on the outside the entire, way,..he would have finished 3-4

calvin did not help roc chances today. If he wasn't so keen on his rail-skimming rides and sent roc outside 10 seconds earlier, he could have hit board. He stormed home once outside.

[cbiscuit]

Need to watch the race some more but there were several hidden good efforts.




I think if anything this race went to show that all the workout hype by drf and others isn't too important.The top two supposedly looked bad while all the hype on Medal Count and Intense Holiday was just that.

Right, Welch was skeptical on CalC but other clockers thought he was okay, can't remember what I heard about CommCurv now. But I do use workouts as a tool for TC races, these are developing 3yo that improve in leaps or level off/regress. WildRed, was not using him any way but his very slow workout made him an easy toss in my book for example. The best working horses don't always get it done but you'd rather have your horses acting like they are coming up for a big effort. FWIW, I thought the best 3 lookers in post parade (but none were standouts) were Dance With Fate, Tapiture and Intense Holiday and they didn't fare too well.

[cbiscuit]

You are so right, he went from post 19 to rail and top of stretch he went from rail back to post 19, and he ran into about 5-6 horses in the back, and the 3 at top of strectch, that made him swing wide, he should of raced on the outside the entire, way,..he would have finished 3-4

Not hating on Calvin now but if he just left the horse out in middle figuring best path entering stretch he may have been in the exacta. Now wondering if they change riders for Prkns? Calivn on half the time but others ride him also.

[mikemca]

Wildcat Red wasn't getting the distance bad workout or not.Even when CD is playing speed friendly it is much more demanding than GP.

I saw quite a few people liking Curve beforehand but it was because of his figs and past races.

I agree about workouts and get work reports pretty often but I had this conversation before the derby on another board.It's like people handicap one way 364 days a year and then on derby day they throw everything out the window and go by who clockers say looks good.

A horse working phenomenal at 5 or 6 furlongs doesn't tell you anything about going 10f.It just tells you they are in good health.I find the reports are great for maiden races otherwise they are a small part of the equation.

[str]

I was on the backside yesterday, and this is true. There was a 20-25 mph headwind in the stretch all day.

This will favor the horses towards the lead and hinder the deep closers. Vice versa when it blows the other way when that strong.

[str]

Wildcat Red wasn't getting the distance bad workout or not.Even when CD is playing speed friendly it is much more demanding than GP.

I saw quite a few people liking Curve beforehand but it was because of his figs and past races.

I agree about workouts and get work reports pretty often but I had this conversation before the derby on another board.It's like people handicap one way 364 days a year and then on derby day they throw everything out the window and go by who clockers say looks good.

A horse working phenomenal at 5 or 6 furlongs doesn't tell you anything about going 10f.It just tells you they are in good health.I find the reports are great for maiden races otherwise they are a small part of the equation.

The 48 and 112 fractions at Gulfstream in the Fla. derby had me wondering about how hot the pace would be. No wonder they ran 1,2,3 gate to wire. They could have gone around again after that. I caved to the hype. Stupid me.

It means something when they really seem to be blossoming at the right time when it comes to the Derby but I agree Mike, a lot of people put WAY too much in to what clockers say. If I had booked every bet they made during my time at the track, I never would have left. Don't get me wrong, some really get it but most don't and how can anyone say how well or poorly a horse looks unless they have seen that horse work 20 times at least over the last year. The only way you would truly know is if you had something to compare to. It's hype most of the time and yes, nobody considers that stuff the rest of the year. And right again, a horse working in front of an empty grandstand in the AM has no bearing on how they will run twice as far with a packed house and all the noise that comes with it, in the PM. Great for firsters as you said.

[harthebar]

Str , i really know nothing about clockers, but explain it to me, when the horses work out in the morning arent the times reported, or is it an unofficial workout that your out there with your horse and guys are just watching the horses,, when you do those types of works, does the general public clockers always know who the horse is, do they have any colors on, to tell , how would you get a true read, there is no traffic, ,how can one tell other than the jock and trainer ,

the 48 and 112 fractions at gulfstream in the fla. Derby had me wondering about how hot the pace would be. No wonder they ran 1,2,3 gate to wire. They could have gone around again after that. I caved to the hype. Stupid me.

It means something when they really seem to be blossoming at the right time when it comes to the derby but i agree mike, a lot of people put way too much in to what clockers say. If i had booked every bet they made during my time at the track, i never would have left. Don't get me wrong, some really get it but most don't and how can anyone say how well or poorly a horse looks unless they have seen that horse work 20 times at least over the last year. The only way you would truly know is if you had something to compare to. It's hype most of the time and yes, nobody considers that stuff the rest of the year. And right again, a horse working in front of an empty grandstand in the am has no bearing on how they will run twice as far with a packed house and all the noise that comes with it, in the pm. Great for firsters as you said.

[str]

Str , i really know nothing about clockers, but explain it to me, when the horses work out in the morning arent the times reported, or is it an unofficial workout that your out there with your horse and guys are just watching the horses,, when you do those types of works, does the general public clockers always know who the horse is, do they have any colors on, to tell , how would you get a true read, there is no traffic, ,how can one tell other than the jock and trainer ,

The clockers know each trainers saddle towel colors as well as their riders that work for them. They see them every day. If they are not sure who a horse is, they will call the trainer and ask them. They can verify who the trainer said the horse was by writing down the horses markings , like a white left hind leg and things like that and checking the foal papers in the racing office. No horse is allowed on the grounds without papers with all markings so they can be identified. If you lie to them, ok, you get by them once or twice, but when you get caught, and you will, you are screwed as they will report it to the Stewards. So, you can't lie. You would have to be an idiot. They work for and are paid by the DRF and it is their job to report works for the public. They are there from 6AM(5;30 in the summer)when the track opens, and they stay until it closes for training , usually at 10AM, everyday. Nothing gets by them.

[harthebar]

YEA BUT DONT THEY HAVE TO REPORT ALL WORKOUT ANY TO THE DRF. WHATS THE BIG ADVANTAGE.
YOU MADE ME THINK OF A MOVIE, ITS A BLACK AND WHITE, BEST HORSE RACING MOVIE I EVER SEEN, YOU HAVE TO SEE, THE HORSE IN THE MOVIE IS CALLED WHITE CARGO...DO YOU KNOW THE MOVIE.....I THINK PECK IS IN IT

http://www.tcm.com/this-month/articl...ts-Malone.html

The clockers know each trainers saddle towel colors as well as their riders that work for them. They see them every day. If they are not sure who a horse is, they will call the trainer and ask them. They can verify who the trainer said the horse was by writing down the horses markings , like a white left hind leg and things like that and checking the foal papers in the racing office. No horse is allowed on the grounds without papers with all markings so they can be identified. If you lie to them, ok, you get by them once or twice, but when you get caught, and you will, you are screwed as they will report it to the Stewards. So, you can't lie. You would have to be an idiot. They work for and are paid by the DRF and it is their job to report works for the public. They are there from 6AM(5;30 in the summer)when the track opens, and they stay until it closes for training , usually at 10AM, everyday. Nothing gets by them.

[harthebar]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wvYu2h0YXIM WATCH THIS CLIP

[mikemca]

YEA BUT DONT THEY HAVE TO REPORT ALL WORKOUT ANY TO THE DRF. WHATS THE BIG ADVANTAGE.

The final time of the work is meaningless

Anyone can encourage their horse to run a 46 half or 59 5f.

It's how they do it that makes workout reports valuable.

For instance Horse A worked 59 flat with the rider still as a statue
Horse B worked 59 flat under mild/heavy encouragement

Also Horse A worked 59 flat going out in 26 but flying home in last furlong in 11 is a lot different then Horse B going out in 23 and stumbling home in 13.

Just about all trainers will work them slow for the first 3/4 of the drill and then have them come home fast with a nice gallop out

That's also another thing reports give is after the official workout time is over they give you the gallop out time

Worked in 59 then galloped out 6f in 1:12 and 7f in 1:26

A horse that is raring to go is hard to pull up


There are a bunch of services .I think DRF just got in the game the last few years.I liked bruno de julio until he started thinking his w/o reports were worth more than they are.

[harthebar]

GINO THE GUY ON TVG....WHO ARE SOME COMPANIES THAT REPORT THEM , IM CURIOUS HOW IT WORKS, OR HOW THEY LAY IT OUT.I GET WHAT YOUR SAYING, SO WHAT DOES THE OFFICIAL WORKOUT MEAN..... ITS WHAT YOU JUST SAID, BUT ITS HOW THEY DO IT.....MEANING HORSE A CAN HAVE FASTEST WORK OF THE DAY SO THEY LIST IT AS 1/21 BUT HE COULD HAVE worked 59 flat with the rider still as a statue SO BASICALLY HE COULD HAVE GONE MUCH FASTER, WHICH WE DONT SEE......LIKE THE WORKOUT GOLDENSCENTS JUST HAD ON TVG AT SANTA ANITA IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CARD....7F IN 1:21.7

The final time of the work is meaningless

Anyone can encourage their horse to run a 46 half or 59 5f.

It's how they do it that makes workout reports valuable.

For instance Horse A worked 59 flat with the rider still as a statue
Horse B worked 59 flat under mild/heavy encouragement

Also Horse A worked 59 flat going out in 26 but flying home in last furlong in 11 is a lot different then Horse B going out in 23 and stumbling home in 13.

Just about all trainers will work them slow for the first 3/4 of the drill and then have them come home fast with a nice gallop out

That's also another thing reports give is after the official workout time is over they give you the gallop out time

Worked in 59 then galloped out 6f in 1:12 and 7f in 1:26

A horse that is raring to go is hard to pull up


There are a bunch of services .I think DRF just got in the game the last few years.I liked bruno de julio until he started thinking his w/o reports were worth more than they are.

[mikemca]

This is who I use


http://www.racingwithbruno.com/


then there are these for Cali

https://secure.nationalturf.com/workouts/sample.html

https://www.hreport.com/


Plus DRF clockers report and a couple others

Most guys don't have a site you just have to know them

[harthebar]

Cool, they just show all the works, .

[mikemca]

here is an example ...don't think I'll get in trouble if it's from a while ago


this is one race...so all these were entered is say race 5 and then every horse in the race that is in the database gets listed


Epoustouflant (KY) 10/16/2012 KEE 47.20 hg
Epoustouflant and Whatdidyousee worked from the Pletcher barn. Whatdid was best
and finished in 23.1, 47.1 and 101 flat. Epou was quick in 23.1, 47.1 and finished
101 but was being asked and looked second best. 2 star

Epoustouflant (KY) 10/7/2012 KEE 48.00 bg
Worked with Bow Bells and showed ton of speed in 23.1, 33.3 and then pulled up in
48 flat. Much better than looked. 3 star

Epoustouflant (KY) 10/1/2012 kee 49.00 b
Go Olivia Go and Epoustouflant worked from the pole here and went in 24.1 through
the lane here with Epoustouflant being the better of the two. Finished in 24.1. EZ out
in 102.3. 3 star

Hey Leroy 9/30/2012 cd 50.2 b
3wd, pushed some, tired some over chewed up track, poor maintenance. 1 star

Holden On (FL) 10/7/2012 KEE 48.80 b
EZ here and finished in hand for Catalano. Caught the eye here. 4 star

Indy Awesome 10/16/2012 cd 103 b
Worked with Snowfinch and didn't work sharply here after working well solo all
along 1 star

[BGboothA]

This is who I use


http://www.racingwithbruno.com/

HOnestly this is one of the best in the business...I use this site very regularly on bigger days.

[TonyP]

interesting piece of info. both the oaks and derbies grandsire is Pulpit, also what is the date of preakness?

[mikemca]

Borel off Ride On Curlin....Rosario up for Preakness

[trytrytry]

interesting piece of info. both the oaks and derbies grandsire is Pulpit, also what is the date of preakness?

May 17th

[TonyP]

May 17th

5-17

[Easy-Rider 66]

California Chrome received a 97 Beyer and a 110 Timeform figure for his Derby score. Lowest beyer ever assigned to a Derby winner since they were offered. Both figures were increased by about 5 points because of the wind.

[trytrytry]

California Chrome received a 97 Beyer and a 110 Timeform figure for his Derby score. Lowest beyer ever assigned to a Derby winner since they were offered. Both figures were increased by about 5 points because of the wind.

which also virtually guarentees he will not bounce at all for Preakness, probably hit a new top fig and win by 6 or 7

[mikemca]

California Chrome received a 97 Beyer and a 110 Timeform figure for his Derby score. Lowest beyer ever assigned to a Derby winner since they were offered. Both figures were increased by about 5 points because of the wind.

Everyone making excuses on why they have it so slow.I'm not buying it.No way every single horse regressed.At least CJ bumped it up a bit more than Beyer.Timeform 110 equates to a 103 beyer.

I'll back TFUS figs 100% but I think they can't figure out how much the wind factored most of all but also how much the track changed in the 2 hours 45 minutes since the last dirt race was ran race 9.

[str]

Everyone making excuses on why they have it so slow.I'm not buying it.No way every single horse regressed.At least CJ bumped it up a bit more than Beyer.Timeform 110 equates to a 103 beyer.

I'll back TFUS figs 100% but I think they can't figure out how much the wind factored most of all but also how much the track changed in the 2 hours 45 minutes since the last dirt race was ran race 9.

Well Mike, one of these days I might be able to disagree with you but you have , in my estimation, hit it right on the head again.

When dirt sits unwatered for a long period of time, it changes. That is an absolute given. Even if they watered it, which I would be shocked if they did not, after the turf race, it is nowhere near the same. That said, the track sitting for two hours plus is WAY over Andy's head. I have known him for too many years to count, him being a Washington Post guy for years before working for DRF. As of when I left or just before, he truly did not understand this concept like he should have. You could not convince him of the notion. We had a mutual friend that discussed this with me multiple times.
Between the idle track and the wind, it is a lost cause when it comes to beyers #'s in this case. This is one of many reasons that over the years I have said it is fine to look at them, but do not rely on them. When it came to my horses and the efforts put forth sometimes they were right but just as often they were not. And sometimes they were so far off it was laughable.
I never professed to know everything, but I sure as heck knew my horse . That being said, What I saw as proof, I was unable to show to others. You, they, and anyone else will simply have to believe me or not. It's totally up to each individual.

Hope that helps.

[TonyP]

5-17

the derby exacta lol

[harthebar]

mike or STR how do they even come up with the beyer.or any other speed figure they use, as you all know, i only been into flats for about two years, if that, im a harness, , but im finding out , more money in flats, value, so you guys have been my teachers...lol for real, i see everyone is talking about how slow they went, i dont know if this is a silly question, but could they have gone faster if they wanted, it just seemed to me going a mile and a quarter, all the horses were very ..cautious , about going,not knowing how long they would last, i dont know......,speed was holding pretty solid that day,wasnt it,,dont thge horses that closed into that race, get any credit......in the preakness , i think they will all know what they have, and blast out of there, cc isnt going to have a easy time like the derby, he had the pwerfect trip..right...

Well Mike, one of these days I might be able to disagree with you but you have , in my estimation, hit it right on the head again.

When dirt sits unwatered for a long period of time, it changes. That is an absolute given. Even if they watered it, which I would be shocked if they did not, after the turf race, it is nowhere near the same. That said, the track sitting for two hours plus is WAY over Andy's head. I have known him for too many years to count, him being a Washington Post guy for years before working for DRF. As of when I left or just before, he truly did not understand this concept like he should have. You could not convince him of the notion. We had a mutual friend that discussed this with me multiple times.
Between the idle track and the wind, it is a lost cause when it comes to beyers #'s in this case. This is one of many reasons that over the years I have said it is fine to look at them, but do not rely on them. When it came to my horses and the efforts put forth sometimes they were right but just as often they were not. And sometimes they were so far off it was laughable.
I never professed to know everything, but I sure as heck knew my horse . That being said, What I saw as proof, I was unable to show to others. You, they, and anyone else will simply have to believe me or not. It's totally up to each individual.

Hope that helps.

[mikemca]

California Chrome received a 97 Beyer and a 110 Timeform figure for his Derby score. Lowest beyer ever assigned to a Derby winner since they were offered. Both figures were increased by about 5 points because of the wind.

Everyone making excuses on why they have it so slow.I'm not buying it.No way every single horse regressed.At least CJ bumped it up a bit more than Beyer.Timeform 110 equates to a 103 beyer.

I'll back TFUS figs 100% but I think they can't figure out how much the wind factored most of all but also how much the track changed in the 2 hours 45 minutes since the last dirt race was ran race 9.

TG has it Pair-Top-Pair-Off-Pair for the top 5

[mikemca]

mike or STR how do they even come up with the beyer.or any other speed figure they use,

You're gonna have to research that urself

Way too hard to explain but at the core of it is par times for the track>slap a variant on it>put fig according to ur scale

The top 2 I mentioned earlier are much more in depth but Beyer/Bris not so much

[Easy-Rider 66]

TG has it Pair-Top-Pair-Off-Pair for the top 5

Have not looked at T-graph figures yet. But makes sense that Commanding curve got a top and Wicked Strong regressed. A little surprised Danza got a pair. I will be interested to see what Timeform has him at. Thx for the info.