[str]

ok str...good to know your perspective on this .. makes sense to me as far as -EV situation with odds you're getting when they do win being too low..not going to let that sway me anymore

I think that will help in the long run. But... you know the gambling blues segment of that which is the next time you are faced with it, the horse will beat you. Lolol. It will test your logic. Let it. But stay with it because in the long term, you should benefit from that stance.

Hope it helps JBEX.

[JBEX]

I think that will help in the long run. But... you know the gambling blues segment of that which is the next time you are faced with it, the horse will beat you. Lolol. It will test your logic. Let it. But stay with it because in the long term, you should benefit from that stance.

Hope it helps JBEX.

yes I get that part str.. doesn't mean they'll never win.. long haul that matters

on another note if you want to see a horse win a grade I as easy as pie watch a replay of the vosburgh..
1-5 and looked it on paper...nothing more than a workout imo and geared down at the end..if you do watch it how many lengths more could he have won by if he was looking to open it up..think he had 3 or 4 more lengths if asked ?

[JBEX]

yes I get that part str.. doesn't mean they'll never win.. long haul that matters

on another note if you want to see a horse win a grade I as easy as pie watch a replay of the vosburgh..
1-5 and looked it on paper...nothing more than a workout imo and geared down at the end..if you do watch it how many lengths more could he have won by if he was looking to open it up..think he had 3 or 4 more lengths if asked ?

while i've got your eye did you ever ride nick santagata on one of your horses ? only reason I ask is
he was one of those guys that was around for a while and probably was aboard a lot of claimers during his career..not really a maryland guy though if I remember correctly

[str]

yes I get that part str.. doesn't mean they'll never win.. long haul that matters

on another note if you want to see a horse win a grade I as easy as pie watch a replay of the vosburgh..
1-5 and looked it on paper...nothing more than a workout imo and geared down at the end..if you do watch it how many lengths more could he have won by if he was looking to open it up..think he had 3 or 4 more lengths if asked ?

I think it is safe to say that he would have won by 8 or 10 lengths had he continued on. The horse ran 11 and change from the 1/4 pole to the 1/8th pole. That is crazy !

[str]

while i've got your eye did you ever ride nick santagata on one of your horses ? only reason I ask is
he was one of those guys that was around for a while and probably was aboard a lot of claimers during his career..not really a maryland guy though if I remember correctly

I don't think I ever rode him. If I did, it would have been a shipper to Monmouth, Meadowlands or NY. or something like that I think. He was a Jersey rider quite a bit if memory serves. I don't remember him riding in Maryland unless it was a ship in, one day thing.
He did very well for a lot of years.
He was a solid rider and I certainly would have ridden him had the appropriate set of circumstances come up. He had to have won several thousand races.
Blast from the past JBEX. I always enjoy them. Thanks.

[mrginandtonic]

Seems I missed this one Jbex. Sorry about that.
I had two guys that I would talk to quite a bit that were professional gamblers back in the 80's and 90's in Maryland. One did fly around to mandatory pick 6 payoff races with large pots several times a year.

They learned from me, although one of them was a trainer for about 5 years before becoming a pro gambler, and I learned from them.
And it's not like most think. They had no interest in who I might like or anything I had heard. Both they and I knew how poor backstretch tips really are. They would ask if I liked a certain horse of mine now and then because they either already liked it or already did not like it. They rarely said which one and I did not care what they thought about my horse. It only mattered what I thought about my horse .
Just a yes was all they were looking for and not very often at all. And that was ok because I would tell anyone that asked yes if I did or tell them tough race, need some luck if I felt that way. Don't think I ever ran one that I flat out did not think had at least a chance except a homebred horse in a stake that the owner was forcing me to run in and was clearly over its head. I put up with that for a while when I was young but that stuff ended after awhile. I just hated it. Guess that's why I am always Leary of homebreds.

I asked them how they dealt with pool size. They knew exactly how much money to put into each pool and the effects of it on payoffs.
For them, that was a key towards having a positive ROI.
They would spread with win, exacta, triples and pick 3-6's. Whatever was offered back then because not all the pick whatever's were available yet. Pk 6's were for sure but not sure about the others. They could play small into DD's if offered as those pools were small. But a 30.00 DD bet was an option sometimes. No more than that though. They would mix the pools and the plays were about 600-800 a race each and they probably averaged 3 or 4 plays a card. Maybe a little less. Some days they watched all day and never made a play for any number of reasons.The amount put into the race was also carefully decided upon by the odds of the horse they wanted to play. A typical handle then was about 1 million on a 9 race weekday.

Now and then maybe double that amount for a Saturday handle or holiday.
On Preakness day they would play many more races because of the novice money pouring in . They would scale the top races to play for about 2-3 k per play each mostly win, exacta and triple and play smaller in the others just for the opportunity to find hidden value that they new existed because of their long daily routine of notes, replays and watching every race in Maryland live everyday.
They did not miss a day. And I knew that because I didn't either.
They made a living but for the hours they put in , that's all it was.
The glamour stories you see and hear are largely fictional. A big time score helps but the daily grind of that business is really tough.

Not sure about amounts at the smaller tracks but CT was about 70.00 in win pools on 8-1 shots and maybe a bit more in exactas.

Those guys stayed away from Charlestown because the pools were minuscule. Same with Penn.
Today might be different than back then , I don't know.
So I think this answer can be plugged into each track depending on handle.
Seems like you have a pretty good read on amounts into pools before you start betting against yourself.
Nice find JBEX.

Good morning sir, now that is one of the more interesting post that I have read recently because it brought back so much memories. Over the years, I have learned a lot from my friends who would be called as professional gamblers. They don’t tell me everything because I needed to learned it myself. I wish I have the dedication and time like they do. Nonetheless, I still learned and gained some insights on the game. It is difficult but it is for them worth the time. They hardly ever ever played the small tracks. How they played each race depends on the race. And they definitely pick and choose. I am only a amateur who finds horse racing fun and challenging. Thanks again for sharing.

[JBEX]

hey str

remember a few months ago I asked you who you thought were the best sprinters going back to the 1980's.. we came up with groovy and phone trick (mgnt guessed the latter)who both ran around the same time..wasn't aware when I asked you but groovy actually ran the two fastest beyers ever and he did it in back to back races in 1987 ..the rosenben at aqueduct he ran a 131 and the true north at belmont he ran a 134..no other horse has ever eclipsed 130 although he estimates secretariat's belmont to be a 139

groovy winning the true north below..he was a big guy wouldn't you say ?

[str]

hey str

remember a few months ago I asked you who you thought were the best sprinters going back to the 1980's.. we came up with groovy and phone trick (mgnt guessed the latter)who both ran around the same time..wasn't aware when I asked you but groovy actually ran the two fastest beyers ever and he did it in back to back races in 1987 ..the rosenben at aqueduct he ran a 131 and the true north at belmont he ran a 134..no other horse has ever eclipsed 130 although he estimates secretariat's belmont to be a 139

groovy winning the true north below..he was a big guy wouldn't you say ?

I remember watching that race . Dutrow Sr. had Kings Swan in the race.

You have to wonder how fast Groovy would have run had he switched leads. It would be reasonable to think he might have run close to 7 flat.

Man, he was some kind of fast.

[JBEX]

I remember watching that race . Dutrow Sr. had Kings Swan in the race.

You have to wonder how fast Groovy would have run had he switched leads. It would be reasonable to think he might have run close to 7 flat.

Man, he was some kind of fast.

I remember kings swan also.. believe he was an any distance, classy horse who ran till he was 7 or 8 years old (without looking).. imbriale called kings swan as the leader before the quarter pole by mistake
(with cordero).. I thought when I saw it he hadn't switched leads but I've gotten that wrong before so I didn't mention it.. 4 lengths would put him up around a 142 beyer and to have run a 131 the race before
(possibly w/o lead change) shows it wasn't a fluke.. an amazing horse

[harthebar]

Str is that you sitting pretty in beat the prick nice job. Keep it up. I'm cheering for you. Why only 28 picks not 30. . The guy in front is doing well ..but he never made a post.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Yeah good job so Far in the BTP contest STR. I see you are a shark on the gridiron similar to the horse game. LOL.

[str]

Str is that you sitting pretty in beat the prick nice job. Keep it up. I'm cheering for you. Why only 28 picks not 30. . The guy in front is doing well ..but he never made a post.

Thanks Harthebar. Yes, off to a nice start but the race is just turning down the backside. We have a long way to go.

I only made 3 picks the 1st week. Lost my 2x play and won two 1x plays, had no chance to pick up any points and really didn't like any late games that much. Had I played, I would have split so no big deal.
I think you can not play up to 15 plays during the contest if you so choose, so that's what I did.
All the best Harthebar !

[str]

Yeah good job so Far in the BTP contest STR. I see you are a shark on the gridiron similar to the horse game. LOL.

Thanks Easy.
But you know the drill. Highs and lows. Have to just stay consistent to my approach and hope that's good enough to cash something.
Take care my friend.

[JBEX]

hey str

if you can look (not concerned about before the race) R2 @ prx #9 littlemissbusiness.. do you think the fact that parx purses are so high relative to the claiming price it's more attractive to make a claim and drop for a win.. this horse has been off about 4 months since that claim but returns the first day she's eligible for this condition clm5kn1y..looks like a useful horse considering the age and record but obviously the drop would be a concern if you were looking to claim her... think this horse could be a solid claim at this price or would you be more on the suspicious side?

[JBEX]

hey str

if you can look (not concerned about before the race) R2 @ prx #9 littlemissbusiness.. do you think the fact that parx purses are so high relative to the claiming price it's more attractive to make a claim and drop for a win.. this horse has been off about 4 months since that claim but returns the first day she's eligible for this condition clm5kn1y..looks like a useful horse considering the age and record but obviously the drop would be a concern if you were looking to claim her... think this horse could be a solid claim at this price or would you be more on the suspicious side?

looks like she got out of the gate alright and then the jockey grabbed a hold of her for whatever reason (maybe she was squeezed but couldn't see the head on).. trailed by 19 lengths at the first quarter and gained 9 lengths to the half mile mark and ran evenly rest of the way to finish 4th.. kind of strange trip but maybe she just wasn't what she was a couple of starts back.. anyway if you want to look at the replay would like to hear what you think but no big deal if you don't

[str]

hey str

if you can look (not concerned about before the race) R2 @ prx #9 littlemissbusiness.. do you think the fact that parx purses are so high relative to the claiming price it's more attractive to make a claim and drop for a win.. this horse has been off about 4 months since that claim but returns the first day she's eligible for this condition clm5kn1y..looks like a useful horse considering the age and record but obviously the drop would be a concern if you were looking to claim her... think this horse could be a solid claim at this price or would you be more on the suspicious side?

While some trainers do this regularly, plenty do not. From pure economics it might make sense. you would need to do the math for each situation but overall, higher purses make the races more competitive.

If the horse was off 4 months it was off for a reason, none of which would be good.Sounds like the trainer saw the beaten date and waited an extra 2-3 weeks to take every edge . But what that would have told me was maybe the trainer knew they needed every edge they could get, meaning the horse was in decline.
Usually the purses are smaller for beaten than open 5k. Don't know about this one. But if the horse was dropping for the big purse, dropping to open 5k was not enough? See, that's what would have triggered my skepticism. I don't know the horses problems but if I was there claiming everyday, I would know what those problems were just from seeing the horse several times before, watching it warm up, pull up, run, and if I was really interested, watching it train , if it trained at Parx and I was stabled there.
So my answer would have been more the suspicious side.

[str]

looks like she got out of the gate alright and then the jockey grabbed a hold of her for whatever reason (maybe she was squeezed but couldn't see the head on).. trailed by 19 lengths at the first quarter and gained 9 lengths to the half mile mark and ran evenly rest of the way to finish 4th.. kind of strange trip but maybe she just wasn't what she was a couple of starts back.. anyway if you want to look at the replay would like to hear what you think but no big deal if you don't

Could not find a replay for Parx. If you know where I can see it, I am happy to look.

The evened out is not cool at all. That usually represents a horse that is not in the peak of fitness. Probably from being off 4 months. Back 19 lengths is definitely not cool.Sounds like it has to be a soreness thing. Probably easy to see where if I could see the horse. Might run better next time with that race under her belt . I would assume she would.
Would love to see the race but can't find where Parx offers it.

[JBEX]

hey str

I would have thought you can see a replay on their site but you can't ...sorry about that.. but the financial aspect was more of what I was interested in anyway.. left out the most important piece of information
in my question (i'm really slipping) that being what was the horse claimed for which was 12.5k..
below are the purses for a race card at parx with class levels and distances


1) clm 7500 n4L.. 23k (1m 70y)
2) mcl 10000.. 18k (5.5f)
3) clm 7500 n2L.. 24k (5.5f)
4) clm 25000 n3L.. 25k (1 mile)
5) clm 12500n2L.. 23k (5.5f)
6) clm 10k open.. 30k (1m 70y)
7) clm 12.5 open.. 32k (1m 70y)
8) clm 16 open... 35k (6f)
9) alw n1xot.. 49k (5.5f)
10) clm 5k..n1y.. 21k (6.5f)


big purses relative to claiming price.. so you're talking about $12k winners share which is about what they claimed her for.. I just felt the fact she was entered in first day eligible and the large purses meant she might be well intended.. even a 2nd place finish and a claim would get them back about 75% of the claiming price (understand there's other expenses in the interim). went off 6-5 and was 5-1 ml

[str]

hey str

I would have thought you can see a replay on their site but you can't ...sorry about that.. but the financial aspect was more of what I was interested in anyway.. left out the most important piece of information
in my question (i'm really slipping) that being what was the horse claimed for which was 12.5k..
below are the purses for a race card at parx with class levels and distances


1) clm 7500 n4L.. 23k (1m 70y)
2) mcl 10000.. 18k (5.5f)
3) clm 7500 n2L.. 24k (5.5f)
4) clm 25000 n3L.. 25k (1 mile)
5) clm 12500n2L.. 23k (5.5f)
6) clm 10k open.. 30k (1m 70y)
7) clm 12.5 open.. 32k (1m 70y)
8) clm 16 open... 35k (6f)
9) alw n1xot.. 49k (5.5f)
10) clm 5k..n1y.. 21k (6.5f)


big purses relative to claiming price.. so you're talking about $12k winners share which is about what they claimed her for.. I just felt the fact she was entered in first day eligible and the large purses meant she might be well intended.. even a 2nd place finish and a claim would get them back about 75% of the claiming price (understand there's other expenses in the interim). went off 6-5 and was 5-1 ml

Claim for 12.5 K plus tax, run back for 10k, keep the horse 4-5 weeks and lose it. Lose 3k on the claim, 3k for bills, win 18k gross, 14k net after %'s to the jock, trainer and several hundred for the barn help and a few pictures, minus expenses shown is plus 8K. You don't have to be Ben Jones to do that do you? That's incredible. It's a different game than the one I played with those pots.

[JBEX]

hey str

this is not a question about an upcoming race but rather me just looking at some old pp's..

laurel

homebred (maryland bred)by breeder richard blue Jr and owned by him also(in case you've heard of him) and trained by ann merryman..3yo

5/5 debut 5.5f turf mcl 14250 (16-12.5k) 10th to the str call and finishes 7th (10 field size)..12-13 lengths behind ever call to the finish
@ 25-1

5/24 same level, surface ,but route up for $12.5k instead..off the turf but runs does nothing @ 50-1

6/16 exactly same as last race but goes on the turf..breaks from rail within 1 length at the pace call and gives it up to finish 8th of 9 @49-1

7/1 adds blinkers everything...same as last race..within 3 lengths at every call and losses by less than a length..12 horse field..comment "steadied at 5/8,rail ,game" @ 82-1


I view the debut useful and in addition like that she maintained her lengths behind at every call all the way to the wire

2nd start I'll give her a pass off the turf

3rd race..nice improvement close to the 6f mark and then faded

4th race..adds blinkers and big effort with a shot at the win

all races 2-3 weeks apart which I guess could be a sign the horse is healthy and doing well..not saying I would've definitely played but signs of improvement to the last effort...what do you think?

[Louisvillekid1]

Just wanted to check in

-Love

[str]

hey str

this is not a question about an upcoming race but rather me just looking at some old pp's..

laurel

homebred (maryland bred)by breeder richard blue Jr and owned by him also(in case you've heard of him) and trained by ann merryman..3yo

5/5 debut 5.5f turf mcl 14250 (16-12.5k) 10th to the str call and finishes 7th (10 field size)..12-13 lengths behind ever call to the finish
@ 25-1

5/24 same level, surface ,but route up for $12.5k instead..off the turf but runs does nothing @ 50-1

6/16 exactly same as last race but goes on the turf..breaks from rail within 1 length at the pace call and gives it up to finish 8th of 9 @49-1

7/1 adds blinkers everything...same as last race..within 3 lengths at every call and losses by less than a length..12 horse field..comment "steadied at 5/8,rail ,game" @ 82-1


I view the debut useful and in addition like that she maintained her lengths behind at every call all the way to the wire

2nd start I'll give her a pass off the turf

3rd race..nice improvement close to the 6f mark and then faded

4th race..adds blinkers and big effort with a shot at the win

all races 2-3 weeks apart which I guess could be a sign the horse is healthy and doing well..not saying I would've definitely played but signs of improvement to the last effort...what do you think?

Ann has trained for him for decades. She is a real good horse woman and a better person. She is a heck of a lady.

I think it is GREAT that you would be able to spot the form cycle on her horse. This is EXACTLY the type of horse form that if you follow a circuit and know the players in it, and how they train their horses, it was an 82-1 shot that should have been about 7 or 8 -1.
Ann with blinkers "on "a young horse is a huge play "on" situation and has been for 30 plus years.
That is a GREAT catch JBEX. It really is.

Knowing a circuit is such a huge advantage over those players that do not. It's just a huge edge. And while I do not know everyone there now, years later, if you see Ann, Mary Eppler, Hammy Smith, Timmy Keefe, Robin Graham, and others go bilkers On with a young horse, they are well worth a play.
Just saw a partial list . Please add Gary Capuano, Lacey Gaudet (although if she's like dad was plenty will run with them 1st out.). , Mike Trombetta and if I remember more I will add them.

Great job again JBEX.

That was awesome !!

[str]

Just wanted to check in

-Love

Thanks LKid. Really appreciate the shout out in BTP. Kinda hit a lull the last two weeks but that will always happen in a contest that runs for any length of time.

Staying reserved, no chasing. Bidding my time, and waiting to pounce.
The plan is sound. Let's hope the execution is. Lol.

Hope things are good with you.

Keep on doing what you do Kid. Give that talent a chance to show. Sound plays, stay confident always, and never let a few losses question how good you are. That question was answered a long time ago.

Best of luck always my friend !

[JBEX]

Ann has trained for him for decades. She is a real good horse woman and a better person. She is a heck of a lady.

I think it is GREAT that you would be able to spot the form cycle on her horse. This is EXACTLY the type of horse form that if you follow a circuit and know the players in it, and how they train their horses, it was an 82-1 shot that should have been about 7 or 8 -1.
Ann with blinkers "on "a young horse is a huge play "on" situation and has been for 30 plus years.
That is a GREAT catch JBEX. It really is.

Knowing a circuit is such a huge advantage over those players that do not. It's just a huge edge. And while I do not know everyone there now, years later, if you see Ann, Mary Eppler, Hammy Smith, Timmy Keefe, Robin Graham, and others go bilkers On with a young horse, they are well worth a play.
Just saw a partial list . Please add Gary Capuano, Lacey Gaudet (although if she's like dad was plenty will run with them 1st out.). , Mike Trombetta and if I remember more I will add them.

Great job again JBEX.

That was awesome !!

thanks str.. I swear I think I've seen that owner/breeders name before but have definitely seen the trainer's.. but besides the blinkers you think the race experience, even though nothing special, helped get her ready.. and the regular spacing also a good sign of a healthy horse?

all the other names are familiar ones i've seen over the years and will keep them in mind when I see blinkers added

[JBEX]

hey str

man I'm keeping you busy these days lol.. saw something at laurel I really like tomorrow in R2 and the tiebreaker for me pointing it out to you was the trainer is one of the ones you mentioned yesterday hamilton smith.. it's got nothing to do with blinkers

R2 #3 oy to the world (2-1) will be no value on the board.. I just love his running line in the 5.5f sprint vs mcl 25k as a primer to stretch out to the mile today vs mcl 16k..what do you think ?

[str]

hey str

man I'm keeping you busy these days lol.. saw something at laurel I really like tomorrow in R2 and the tiebreaker for me pointing it out to you was the trainer is one of the ones you mentioned yesterday hamilton smith.. it's got nothing to do with blinkers

R2 #3 oy to the world (2-1) will be no value on the board.. I just love his running line in the 5.5f sprint vs mcl 25k as a primer to stretch out to the mile today vs mcl 16k..what do you think ?

This is the book on Hambone with this sort of horse.

If the horse is bred to run that distance and if he has worked the horse 5/8ths several times just prior to the 5.5F race, that will tell you that he was getting a race under the horses belt prior to stretching it out. But.. if he had a 3/8s or a couple of 1/2's in there just before the sprint, this stretch is a reaction to the poor effort.
He rarely breezes a cheaper maiden more than 5/8th so if he breezed it 3/4's than today's race was the race pointed towards from day 1.

Hambone doesn't typically get distance bred horses . He gets almost all his babies from his brother Franklin down in So. Car. and over the years most were sprinter types. A homebred for an owner could be a different scenario however.
So seeing the pedigree and seeing if his brother is the breeder or how he acquired the horse will help with clarity.
Let me know so I can answer again before the race if possible.

[str]

This is the book on Hambone with this sort of horse.

If the horse is bred to run that distance and if he has worked the horse 5/8ths several times just prior to the 5.5F race, that will tell you that he was getting a race under the horses belt prior to stretching it out. But.. if he had a 3/8s or a couple of 1/2's in there just before the sprint, this stretch is a reaction to the poor effort.
He rarely breezes a cheaper maiden more than 5/8th so if he breezed it 3/4's than today's race was the race pointed towards from day 1.

Hambone doesn't typically get distance bred horses . He gets almost all his babies from his brother Franklin down in So. Car. and over the years most were sprinter types. A homebred for an owner could be a different scenario however.
So seeing the pedigree and seeing if his brother is the breeder or how he acquired the horse will help with clarity.
Let me know so I can answer again before the race if possible.

Just saw the pedigree. Colonel John/Knockout Beauty. He was OK as a sire and he went long, she was a slow maiden who never won. I do not have a form but this would bring into play what I asked for. I cannot believe that Hammy had much hope of winning in the 1st start going 5.5F. So the stretch out is mandatory IMO.

But what caught my eye was Hammy's other horse in the race, Southern Rules.
So I just looked up the breeding and this horse's dam was Lu Lu Mess. She was unplaced in one career start, but... she was out of Battenkill who ran many times in Maryland when I was still training and I remember. And guess what Battenkill did? She ran 2-3 times sprinting and laid off the pace to start her career , then closed some, but won her maiden race first time stretching out. Only difference will be that the grand dames was around 2 turns and this is a one turn mile .

This fits well into this horse. The horses sire won races going long . So the question begs, what does this horse look like. Trevor McCarthy is the rider and he is a real good rider. Gotta be near the top if not on top of the jockey standings. Why would he ride a 12-1 Maiden in here?

[Louisvillekid1]

Whenever you get a chance sir,

-first off thanks for everything you do

much love

——

I’ve noticed over the last 20-25 years being in this game as a handicapper

during warmups pre post parade , after exiting paddock

when a horse is being pushed some , and others are just walking

that horse wins @ a solid clip

used to think front runners / speed horses more

but lately , as long as the pony isn’t super wet

seems to strike even from off the pace

I see the Ortiz Brothers doing it often

forgive my ignorance on the terminology

but I’m pretty sure you know what I’m trying ask

thanks again , in advance

[JBEX]

hey str

busy running around yesterday morning so didn't get a chance to respond earlier..

a couple of things to note..

both horses worked 4f in company there last 2..prior to those southern rules (sr) had a 6f and a 5f work..oy to the world (ottw) had five 5f works prior to that ..so guessing he was shooting for a distance win 2nd out

that line he ran
in his first race ottw grabbed my attention so much that o didn't even notice he had 2 horses in the race..both exited the same maiden race and were making their 2nd start..ottw was 4-1 and finished well ahead of sr who went off 30-1
both out of the money but ran kind of even races ..ottw mid pack and sr back of the pack (I'm referring to their debut races here)

sr was bred by jerry romans in south carolina and owned by franklin smith..think sire was a sprinter but average winning distance of progeny is 7.1f..dam sire saint liam 7.3f so I'd say more of a middle distance pedigree

ottw went out to the lead was pressed and faded badly at the 3/8ths pole (2-1)..sr stalked made a move on the turn and finished 2nd @ 15-1 behind the 3-5 favorite who won by 6 lengths.. $42 exacta for $2 ...a very nice number for those odds ..good call

like the way you went back to the
2nd dam of sr to see the path to her maiden breaker was similar to the one sr was taking today


gl today and tomorrow if you're participating

[str]

Whenever you get a chance sir,

-first off thanks for everything you do

much love

——

I’ve noticed over the last 20-25 years being in this game as a handicapper

during warmups pre post parade , after exiting paddock

when a horse is being pushed some , and others are just walking

that horse wins @ a solid clip

used to think front runners / speed horses more

but lately , as long as the pony isn’t super wet

seems to strike even from off the pace

I see the Ortiz Brothers doing it often

forgive my ignorance on the terminology

but I’m pretty sure you know what I’m trying ask

thanks again , in advance

Let me try and add clarity to the warm up .

We all know that horses will warm up some, but why do some horses do it so much more?

There are 2 things that determine how much and/or what type of warmups a horse will have. The physical need to do so and the mental side of it.

The physical can vary in that some horses are what I will call sore behind, meaning the muscles behind where the rider sits are tight, weak or tender. This is caused from over exertion, poor conformation ( just not enough ass to push off at the force they need to, weight shifting to help another ache somewhere else, etc.) When this occurs it is very hard to correct. But, it is very workable by jogging the horse quite a bit and or galloping the horse back in forth more so than the others are. You might not see this that much in Grade 1's like this weekend, but you see it everyday with claimers and horses that run more often than 5 times a year. Simply put, they are tight in those muscles and need all the time they can get to loosen up prior to breaking. Because they are sorish or weak behind, these horses are usually closers or mid pack horses. Not that they necessarily want to be, but because they cannot push off with the same thrust as the others so they fall back early.
These types are often gamers with big hearts and a will to compete so it makes sense that these horses would be winning or running well at a decent clip.

The mental side is when a horse can be very high strung. If so, you might see the rider let the escort, known as the lead pony, lead the horse and they walk for most of the time once they get away from the grandstand ( where the noise and movements of people can get the horse stirred up). This is to keep the horse calm and not burn too much energy pre race. These can be the washy horses you might see. Most times they stay away from the grandstand AND the gate, both of which can fire the edgy type horse up. The rider might have their feet out of the stirrups and have them dangling. Another way to get the horse to calm down for a few minutes.

And lastly from the horses point of view, the normal everyday horse that is just typical and does not need an extended or abbreviated warm up. There are plenty of those as well.

As for riders, certain riders can warm up horses a bit more or a bit less. For them, it can be an individual preference or the way they might have been taught. I asked a few of the really good riders I was around if trainers gave them detail or reminders about specific warm up instructions. Not surprisingly, the higher % trainers usually did, the lesser ones, not so much.
I did when it was important and the rider was new to the horse. My riders, knowing the detail my outfit attended to, knew what to do, as we typically talked almost daily about that type of stuff. I would remind them but all that needed to be said was "remember the hind end" or something like that. If they were high strung, every rider knew that when they got a leg up. For those types, self preservation kicked in for the riders as it was written across the horses eyes for all to see when the horn blew and they could feel the tenseness in the horses body when they got on them.

So where does this leave the customer trying to watch a warm up and get an edge? Well, my advice would be to not read too much into it and trust that the best riders will have a warm up edge over the lesser riders no matter what track you are playing and the better trainers will have an edge over the lesser ones no matter the venue.
This falls into the category of one of the little things, and it is stuff like this that separates riders and trainers, again, not so much for big races as all the participants are very good, but more for the everyday races.
Just like in handicapping games Kid, everybody sees some things but the better player sees and looks for the little things.

Hope that helps.

[Louisvillekid1]

Thank you so much

excellent response as always

love

[str]

hey str

busy running around yesterday morning so didn't get a chance to respond earlier..

a couple of things to note..

both horses worked 4f in company there last 2..prior to those southern rules (sr) had a 6f and a 5f work..oy to the world (ottw) had five 5f works prior to that ..so guessing he was shooting for a distance win 2nd out

that line he ran
in his first race ottw grabbed my attention so much that o didn't even notice he had 2 horses in the race..both exited the same maiden race and were making their 2nd start..ottw was 4-1 and finished well ahead of sr who went off 30-1
both out of the money but ran kind of even races ..ottw mid pack and sr back of the pack (I'm referring to their debut races here)

sr was bred by jerry romans in south carolina and owned by franklin smith..think sire was a sprinter but average winning distance of progeny is 7.1f..dam sire saint liam 7.3f so I'd say more of a middle distance pedigree

ottw went out to the lead was pressed and faded badly at the 3/8ths pole (2-1)..sr stalked made a move on the turn and finished 2nd @ 15-1 behind the 3-5 favorite who won by 6 lengths.. $42 exacta for $2 ...a very nice number for those odds ..good call

like the way you went back to the
2nd dam of sr to see the path to her maiden breaker was similar to the one sr was taking today


gl today and tomorrow if you're participating

Q. both horses worked 4f in company there last 2..prior to those southern rules (sr) had a 6f and a 5f work..oy to the world (ottw) had five 5f works prior to that ..so guessing he was shooting for a distance win 2nd out

A. It would make no sense, especially Hambone, to work 3/4 's just prior to running 5 1/2F if you really felt the horse had the speed to run well in that race. That is not to say nobody was trying, that is not at all the point as you well know, but some that read this might draw an incorrect conclusion. It just lends credence to the fact that the trainer felt the best way to prepare the horse to win was to run in the sprint before stretching out. It simply tells you that the horse has very little early turn of foot. Nothing at all wrong with that. I did it often enough as well.


Always like it when we talk about Md. racing. I can help often enough in general but I know Md. racing inside and out from all my time there.

Thanks JBEX.

All the best.

[JBEX]

hey str



have a hunch this may have been covered at some point and if it has no need to explain it again..if you had to pick your favorite claim during your training career who would it be and why..price,what you did to correct him (or her) and how much approximately did he win and anything else pertinent..if it's tough to pick the best one a top 3 will do..and while you were working under dick dutrow or before what do you think one of the best claims he ever made was in your opinion

now that I think about it I believe your avatar might be it (for you) if I remember correctly

[JBEX]

would think king's swan had to be one of his big ones..that was a war horse for sure..if I remember correctly (looking
it up's too easy) he could do it all short,long,turf (not sure)at very high levels and raced till an advanced age ..8 ?

[JBEX]

hey str

hambone (guess i can call him that too lol) has a 2yo first time starter in R2 at laurel today.. he's the breeder and owner also it's a mcl 25k @ 6f..been working him steady since mid July and the last 5 works (except 1 @ 6f) are all 5f..looks like he's shooting for a route in start #2 if I remember correctly.. interesting thing is this pedigree is heavily sprint oriented just going by sire and dam sire.. maybe the fact that next start could be a 1 turn mile mitigates that to some degree.. anyway thought you'd find it interesting

you ever heard of the training track Ell ? that's where he had his first 5 works prior the laurel ones