[JBEX]

barclay tagg has had a decent meet with a limited # of starters at saratoga 13-3-1-2...like his horse in R10 #2 spa dancer ..not a bad hunch play anyway

[JBEX]

hey str..have another request if you're willing..rudy had a $100 horse in R7 at saratoga today..I thought afterward there were some interesting things about him...I didn't look at the race beforehand as it doesn’t fall under my two categories ..if you got the pp's we could discuss it whenever it's convenient for you..next couple days,next week doesn't matter..think you'd find it interesting and I'd like to see if i'm on the right track no pun lol with my angles

[str]

hey str..have another request if you're willing..rudy had a $100 horse in R7 at saratoga today..I thought afterward there were some interesting things about him...I didn't look at the race beforehand as it doesn’t fall under my two categories ..if you got the pp's we could discuss it whenever it's convenient for you..next couple days,next week doesn't matter..think you'd find it interesting and I'd like to see if i'm on the right track no pun lol with my angles

Thanks for waiting for me.

I should be around a lot more moving forward.

I do have the pp's in front of me so fire away.

[JBEX]

Thanks for waiting for me.

I should be around a lot more moving forward.

I do have the pp's in front of me so fire away.

ok str

the two favorites


#5 riff raff (3-2) (4th)
#3 sal the turtle (3-1) (3rd)

btw they both were claimed as were #1 and #9 (finished 2nd).. guessing that's a lot for one race but of course nothing to do with my questions


what caught eye my afterwards were the pace figures and the last two races at finger lakes were routes.. now know pace figure accuracy can be debated but that would take us off track for this so have to assume they are at least close.. you will notice at the first calls of both races they are fast (divide by 2
and you have lengths approximately) ..so at the 2nd call of the last race the +8 (means he's 4 lengths fast) and the 2nd call of the race 2 back he's 7½ lengths fast of the pars for that level of racing.. i'm thinking running those routes up close to a very fast pace a nice primer for cutting back to 7f.. now that type of race at fl an oc alw n3x ot state bred definitely a notch below this race at saratoga but again that takes us off the path of this question.. also like that he ran a race at aqueduct on 3/16 that puts him in the ball park of running with the ones in here.. also the jockey junior alvarado had won 2 of his last 3 and a 3rd for rudy in the last 14 days.. the main thing though is the 2 routes on the lead in fast paces and cutting back to 7f..what do you think ?

[str]

ok str

the two favorites


#5 riff raff (3-2) (4th)
#3 sal the turtle (3-1) (3rd)

btw they both were claimed as were #1 and #9 (finished 2nd).. guessing that's a lot for one race but of course nothing to do with my questions


what caught eye my afterwards were the pace figures and the last two races at finger lakes were routes.. now know pace figure accuracy can be debated but that would take us off track for this so have to assume they are at least close.. you will notice at the first calls of both races they are fast (divide by 2
and you have lengths approximately) ..so at the 2nd call of the last race the +8 (means he's 4 lengths fast) and the 2nd call of the race 2 back he's 7½ lengths fast of the pars for that level of racing.. i'm thinking running those routes up close to a very fast pace a nice primer for cutting back to 7f.. now that type of race at fl an oc alw n3x ot state bred definitely a notch below this race at saratoga but again that takes us off the path of this question.. also like that he ran a race at aqueduct on 3/16 that puts him in the ball park of running with the ones in here.. also the jockey junior alvarado had won 2 of his last 3 and a 3rd for rudy in the last 14 days.. the main thing though is the 2 routes on the lead in fast paces and cutting back to 7f..what do you think ?

Here are your quotes that try and add up to something:

" i'm thinking running those routes up close to a very fast pace a nice primer for cutting back to 7f."

A. 100% correct IMO. And you know that I have always talked positive;y about 2 turns back to 7/8ths.


" also like that he ran a race at aqueduct on 3/16 that puts him in the ball park of running with the ones in here."

A. When I look at these type of horses that are seemingly running all over the place, like long at Finger Lakes, in condition allowance races, short at Aqu., condition allowance races , it is sometimes very hard unless you know all those circuits very well, to get a handle on how good the company was. So what I always do , and have done a lot in the last few years because I do not follow it like I did, is to find a true level of worth. March 16th is a perfect race to get an understanding of how good or bad this horse is. He wins for 50k n/w3 at Aqu.
From there I look around at the rest of the field to see if there are common opponents that might help me with the horses worth. I used to refer to this as comparison handicapping. My friend and I learned to do this when we were in high school and would go to C.T. back in the day.
Blue Belt, the 100.00 winner ran against both favorites on April 22nd. Blue Belt was beaten 14 lengths that day. But the 2 program favorites were beaten by 9 3/4's and 11 lengths. That race tells you that all three are within about 5 lengths of one another. But 2 horses are the favorites and one is 50-1.

I see that on May19th the one horse and Blue Belt ran against each other and Blue Belt was just 1 3/4's lengths behind the one horse and made up 1/4 length from the 1/8th pole while the one lost a length and a 1/4 from the 1/8th pole.

So it is fair IMO to determine that Blue Belt is probably just below the two favorites on a par.

Probably 8 or 10-1 against these two. But... Blue Belt had already shown that he wins off the stretch out which he did 2 races back and as we talked about a week or two ago, horses that like that typically like turning back from 2 turns to a one turn 7/8ths race, which this was.

" also the jockey junior alvarado had won 2 of his last 3 and a 3rd for rudy in the last 14 days."

A. It is always a good thing when the rider/trainer combo is on a roll. But I would have seen that as support if I already liked the horse some and was trying to make a case for him. Can't say that that would have put me on the horse.

" the main thing though is the 2 routes on the lead in fast paces and cutting back to 7f..what do you think ?"

A. Too me, this is the key. These types seem to be always underbet.

In this case, the public at Saratoga saw Finger Lakes and it was a quick throw. That is what it seems like anyway.

With long shots, as you know, you have to WANT to make a case for them sometimes. I mean, it's easy to make cases for favorites. But harder for long shots.
And maybe this horse was 15-1 until late and just got lost on the toteboard. But as easy as it is to say now, after the race, and knowing he won, I would have to think that when we see Rudy at Saratoga, a place that has longshots all the time, and this type of turn back which we know going in the horse shows an affinity for, playing at least a saver if not more on him just seems to be the thing to do. But please, I am not that guy that tells people " I would have been all over this horse". Lol. However, if I had played that race and NOT had him somewhere, I would have been kicking myself. Mainly because I love turn backs like this as I have said, and 7/8's around one turn is a tricky race that a lot of 6F horses don't necessarily like. For these types of horses, that being cheaper quality beaten type claimers, not hard knocking consistent war horses, this race was screaming for a price and found a BIG price.

Glad you saw this JBEX.

How about a thread for just stretch outs and turn backs.

Maybe all the guys can participate. I would bet that the ROI would be +.

That might be a winner. What do you think?

[Louisvillekid1]

STR is the man

[Louisvillekid1]

I’m just ask a simple stupid question

how much one on one time do big time trainers have w/ their pony?

how many guys on the trainers staff?

They get cut outta his?

I mean im sure some kinda technology

but how

maker
plecther
Diodoro
baffert
servis
brown
jerkens

etc...

give that personal touch, while keeping eye open for new opps , and having convo’s w/ owners on decision making ...

and anybody can answer

just take it easy on me, as I’m just a handicapper

never had the pleasure being close to the game

[JBEX]

Here are your quotes that try and add up to something:

" i'm thinking running those routes up close to a very fast pace a nice primer for cutting back to 7f."

A. 100% correct IMO. And you know that I have always talked positive;y about 2 turns back to 7/8ths.


" also like that he ran a race at aqueduct on 3/16 that puts him in the ball park of running with the ones in here."

A. When I look at these type of horses that are seemingly running all over the place, like long at Finger Lakes, in condition allowance races, short at Aqu., condition allowance races , it is sometimes very hard unless you know all those circuits very well, to get a handle on how good the company was. So what I always do , and have done a lot in the last few years because I do not follow it like I did, is to find a true level of worth. March 16th is a perfect race to get an understanding of how good or bad this horse is. He wins for 50k n/w3 at Aqu.
From there I look around at the rest of the field to see if there are common opponents that might help me with the horses worth. I used to refer to this as comparison handicapping. My friend and I learned to do this when we were in high school and would go to C.T. back in the day.
Blue Belt, the 100.00 winner ran against both favorites on April 22nd. Blue Belt was beaten 14 lengths that day. But the 2 program favorites were beaten by 9 3/4's and 11 lengths. That race tells you that all three are within about 5 lengths of one another. But 2 horses are the favorites and one is 50-1.

I see that on May19th the one horse and Blue Belt ran against each other and Blue Belt was just 1 3/4's lengths behind the one horse and made up 1/4 length from the 1/8th pole while the one lost a length and a 1/4 from the 1/8th pole.

So it is fair IMO to determine that Blue Belt is probably just below the two favorites on a par.

Probably 8 or 10-1 against these two. But... Blue Belt had already shown that he wins off the stretch out which he did 2 races back and as we talked about a week or two ago, horses that like that typically like turning back from 2 turns to a one turn 7/8ths race, which this was.

" also the jockey junior alvarado had won 2 of his last 3 and a 3rd for rudy in the last 14 days."

A. It is always a good thing when the rider/trainer combo is on a roll. But I would have seen that as support if I already liked the horse some and was trying to make a case for him. Can't say that that would have put me on the horse.

" the main thing though is the 2 routes on the lead in fast paces and cutting back to 7f..what do you think ?"

A. Too me, this is the key. These types seem to be always underbet.

In this case, the public at Saratoga saw Finger Lakes and it was a quick throw. That is what it seems like anyway.

With long shots, as you know, you have to WANT to make a case for them sometimes. I mean, it's easy to make cases for favorites. But harder for long shots.
And maybe this horse was 15-1 until late and just got lost on the toteboard. But as easy as it is to say now, after the race, and knowing he won, I would have to think that when we see Rudy at Saratoga, a place that has longshots all the time, and this type of turn back which we know going in the horse shows an affinity for, playing at least a saver if not more on him just seems to be the thing to do. But please, I am not that guy that tells people " I would have been all over this horse". Lol. However, if I had played that race and NOT had him somewhere, I would have been kicking myself. Mainly because I love turn backs like this as I have said, and 7/8's around one turn is a tricky race that a lot of 6F horses don't necessarily like. For these types of horses, that being cheaper quality beaten type claimers, not hard knocking consistent war horses, this race was screaming for a price and found a BIG price.

Glad you saw this JBEX.

How about a thread for just stretch outs and turn backs.

Maybe all the guys can participate. I would bet that the ROI would be +.

That might be a winner. What do you think?

wow...a lot covered here.. I think for me the tie breaker here to consider playing that horse as a longshot would've been the fast pace figures in her previous 2 races.. if it were an ordinary or slow pace in the routes that would've definitely kept me off if I were considering him..i have always on my own liked the extra ½ furlong or furlong on these cutbacks so good to know you feel the same way

it's interesting that horses who do well at route/sprint also are effective going opposite sprint to route.. would have never thought that and definitely good to know.. as far as determining these subtle class differences I think I have a fairly good feel for that but who knows.. think more times than not this will be straightforward rather than tricky


wish we started that thread earlier today lol..rudy won with another cutback that paid $44 in the 3rd race.. this time 1 1/8 to 6.5 F (that extra half furlong again).. he claimed the horse from chad brown in the race prior for $40k and today's was a maiden special.. not easy to do as you well know and they've already paid for the horse with the huge purse


will consider the thread.. sounds like a good idea.. I usually like to factor in class drops and running style when I do it but maybe I'm getting to complex..thanks str

[str]

I’m just ask a simple stupid question

how much one on one time do big time trainers have w/ their pony?

how many guys on the trainers staff?

They get cut outta his?

I mean im sure some kinda technology

but how

maker
plecther
Diodoro
baffert
servis
brown
jerkens

etc...

give that personal touch, while keeping eye open for new opps , and having convo’s w/ owners on decision making ...

and anybody can answer

just take it easy on me, as I’m just a handicapper

never had the pleasure being close to the game

How much time with each horse?

Very little. You can watch 3 or 4 train at the same time but we are talking minutes. Then, trainers CAN go stall to stall and check each horses legs after the track is closed but a barn of 48 horses would take about an hour and a half. Back in the day, that is how I was taught but today's trainer relegates a lot of that stuff. They just do not have that much time. Most start around 5:30 and finish around 10:30. That's 6 hours to watch them train, see as many as possible up close, take a few phone calls, talk to agents or jocks and make entries for 2 or 3 days out.
Go to your office, change cloths, grab a sandwich and then it's 12:30 and the races start and they are in the public's eye all day.
If they have 2 seperate strings of horses at two different tracks, then it's every other day at each place if they are close. It's controlled chaos Kid. Been there, done that.

Q. how many guys on the trainers staff?

Grooms rub 4 horses at top notch outfits. Hot walkers walk about 7 a day. A barn of 48 ( hard to have more stalls than that at one venue). Probably 4 exercise riders a foreman and an asst. trainer. So about 25 employees for that size barn.

Q. They get cut outta his?

A. They are on salary. Probably bonuses of 1% to the winning groom and probably 1% to the asst. trainer. Riders make a flat rate bonus as do hot walkers. At least that is the typical setup.

Q. I mean im sure some kinda technology

but how

maker
plecther
Diodoro
baffert
servis
brown
jerkens

etc...

give that personal touch, while keeping eye open for new opps , and having convo’s w/ owners on decision making ...


A. They work from 5:30 AM until about 6PM every race day and maybe 2 hours less on a dark day.( Adjust the times for night racing). They also have accountants that handle payroll, airplane tickets, rental cars, hotel accommodations etc. when they run out of town or go to sales.
No days actually off when you are a trainer of a large outfit. Phone rings all day and half the night.

[str]

wow...a lot covered here.. I think for me the tie breaker here to consider playing that horse as a longshot would've been the fast pace figures in her previous 2 races.. if it were an ordinary or slow pace in the routes that would've definitely kept me off if I were considering him..i have always on my own liked the extra ½ furlong or furlong on these cutbacks so good to know you feel the same way

it's interesting that horses who do well at route/sprint also are effective going opposite sprint to route.. would have never thought that and definitely good to know.. as far as determining these subtle class differences I think I have a fairly good feel for that but who knows.. think more times than not this will be straightforward rather than tricky


wish we started that thread earlier today lol..rudy won with another cutback that paid $44 in the 3rd race.. this time 1 1/8 to 6.5 F (that extra half furlong again).. he claimed the horse from chad brown in the race prior for $40k and today's was a maiden special.. not easy to do as you well know and they've already paid for the horse with the huge purse


will consider the thread.. sounds like a good idea.. I usually like to factor in class drops and running style when I do it but maybe I'm getting to complex..thanks str

"I think for me the tie breaker here to consider playing that horse as a longshot would've been the fast pace figures in her previous 2 races.. if it were an ordinary or slow pace in the routes that would've definitely kept me off if I were considering him."

A. I didn't mean to minimize that . I think you are dead on in that, something needs to catch your eye on a longshot to start the process. The faster than normal figs for those long races are indeed a reason to start digging.
I think I went into the digging before stating the original reason. Both those long efforts were better than they look at first glance.
Totally agree.

[JBEX]

"I think for me the tie breaker here to consider playing that horse as a longshot would've been the fast pace figures in her previous 2 races.. if it were an ordinary or slow pace in the routes that would've definitely kept me off if I were considering him."

A. I didn't mean to minimize that . I think you are dead on in that, something needs to catch your eye on a longshot to start the process. The faster than normal figs for those long races are indeed a reason to start digging.
I think I went into the digging before stating the original reason. Both those long efforts were better than they look at first glance.
Totally agree.

ok str thanks.. one more question (for now lol) .. I looked at the pars in the prioress at saratoga today for 3yo fillies.. the horse I like at a price exited a 3up alw n2x ot at saratoga in her last race..was on the pace
and gave it up pretty bad ..checked out the pace pars for the allowance race which you're able to figure by the variant and its significantly faster than the 3yo g2 stakes horses.i always thought this to be the case but off the top of your head would you think on avg this time of year older n2x ot alw horses are faster than 3yo graded stakes horses ?

[JBEX]

ok str thanks.. one more question (for now lol) .. I looked at the pars in the prioress at saratoga today for 3yo fillies.. the horse I like at a price exited a 3up alw n2x ot at saratoga in her last race..was on the pace
and gave it up pretty bad ..checked out the pace pars for the allowance race which you're able to figure by the variant and its significantly faster than the 3yo g2 stakes horses.i always thought this to be the case but off the top of your head would you think on avg this time of year older n2x ot alw horses are faster than 3yo graded stakes horses ?

same circuit as that's a fair comparison

[str]

ok str thanks.. one more question (for now lol) .. I looked at the pars in the prioress at saratoga today for 3yo fillies.. the horse I like at a price exited a 3up alw n2x ot at saratoga in her last race..was on the pace
and gave it up pretty bad ..checked out the pace pars for the allowance race which you're able to figure by the variant and its significantly faster than the 3yo g2 stakes horses.i always thought this to be the case but off the top of your head would you think on avg this time of year older n2x ot alw horses are faster than 3yo graded stakes horses ?

Earlier in the year yes, but this time of year, I'm not so sure.

Maybe that IS correct but that would surprise me. The Prioress is typically a very solid race.

2OT's are still very nice horses but GRADED Stakes fillies in Sept. I would think would be tough to top as far as faster goes. Now if it's 2OT's or 50k older open claimers, we would need to look closely at that. So I guess we need to examine all that especially with all types of conditions tied into one another these days to help fill the races.

3OT's and 80k claimers , well that's a different story.
Hope I am not confusing things here.

[JBEX]

Earlier in the year yes, but this time of year, I'm not so sure.

Maybe that IS correct but that would surprise me. The Prioress is typically a very solid race.

2OT's are still very nice horses but GRADED Stakes fillies in Sept. I would think would be tough to top as far as faster goes. Now if it's 2OT's or 50k older open claimers, we would need to look closely at that. So I guess we need to examine all that especially with all types of conditions tied into one another these days to help fill the races.

3OT's and 80k claimers , well that's a different story.
Hope I am not confusing things here.

no not at all.. I'm going to go back and see if I can find a 2OT for the girls and see what the final figure par is..it looks like at the pace call its just about dead even...guessing the final similar also..let you know either way.. probably the quality of horse advancing to 2OT at the spa very high compared to other tracks.. maybe get some lightly raced 4yos who light it up

[JBEX]

added something in case you got to it quick

[str]

no not at all.. I'm going to go back and see if I can find a 2OT for the girls and see what the final figure par is..it looks like at the pace call its just about dead even...guessing the final similar also..let you know either way.. probably the quality of horse advancing to 2OT at the spa very high compared to other tracks.. maybe get some lightly raced 4yos who light it up

Well, that is possibly true about the Spa. A 2OT can be vicious. But all things being equal, if there is such a thing there, I would be surprised if that was the case. However, I have been surprised before.
Anxious to hear what you find.
Thanks JBEX !

[JBEX]

Well, that is possibly true about the Spa. A 2OT can be vicious. But all things being equal, if there is such a thing there, I would be surprised if that was the case. However, I have been surprised before.
Anxious to hear what you find.
Thanks JBEX !

well you can only go back 4 days.. wasn't able to find the 2OT/3yo stakes numbers but here's some I did find

ALL SPRINT #'s


saratoga

100.. 1OT/ 3 up boys
98.. oc62.5k 2OT/3 up boys
97.. G2 stakes/ 3yo fillies
95..msw / 3 up boys
93 ..1OT nyb /3 up boys


95..G1 stakes / 2yo boys
92..G1 stakes / 2yo fillies
88..msw / 2yo boys
86..msw / 2yo fillies
82..msw nyb/ 2yo fillies


mth

84..msw/ 3 up fillies
82..msw njb/ 3 up fillies


some perspective..

finger lakes

68..mdn clm 5k/boys

indiana grand

64.. mdn clm 10k ind bred/ fm

about 1.6 points/length

[str]

well you can only go back 4 days.. wasn't able to find the 2OT/3yo stakes numbers but here's some I did find

100.. 3 up 1OT/ boys
97.. G2 stakes/ 3yo fillies
95..msw 3 up/ boys

92..G2 stakes / 2yo fillies(might be G1)
88..msw 2yo/ boys

about 1.6 points/length

What race was the 100?

Is the 97 the Prioress?

Want to look at the charts of those two races if I can.

Thanks

[JBEX]

What race was the 100?

Is the 97 the Prioress?

Want to look at the charts of those two races if I can.

Thanks

those are the pars for those levels not the final figures of those recent races.. don't think I can get those or at least I don't know how.. I'm going to do the same thing for belmont and keeneland..if there's a place you can get them all at once I'll do that otherwise have to wait till these types of races come up

[JBEX]

added G1 stakes /2yo boys above (don't think grade level matters for 2yo at this track)

[JBEX]

added G1 stakes /2yo boys above (don't think grade level matters for 2yo at this track)

added 1OT nyb/ 3 up boys

[JBEX]

added 1OT nyb/ 3 up boys

added another oc62.5k -2OT/3 up boys

[JBEX]

added another oc62.5k -2OT/3 up boys

hope I'm not overdoing it but added a couple more from mth.. I don't have saratoga "msw 3 up fm" but would guess by looking at this it'd be about 90..if so 6 pt difference between sar and mth for same condition so we're talking close to 4 lengths.. all of these are sprint distances

[JBEX]

added another oc62.5k -2OT/3 up boys

added

sar msw/2yo filiies
sar msw nyb / 2yo fillies

[str]

added

sar msw/2yo filiies
sar msw nyb / 2yo fillies

saratoga

100.. 1OT/ 3 up boys
98.. oc62.5k 2OT/3 up boys
97.. G2 stakes/ 3yo fillies
95..msw / 3 up boys
93 ..1OT nyb /3 up boys


Hi JBEX,

I looked at these again and the 1 OT ( other than)3 and up boys looks like it might be a non winners in an allowance race in a year or something like that. Or maybe a 3 OT.
The 2OT runs slower than the 1OT which doesn't match up.
Not a big deal but something is off somewhere I assume.
Thought I would let you and everyone know.

[lag hammer]

Hi, I'm looking for tables where a number of good punters, preferably newspaper punters, have posted tips in a ranking 1-4 sheet for every race in UK and IRE.

As an example of what I mean, here is exactly that kind of sheet for races in Durbanville, South Africa:

http://news.tabonline.co.za/FieldsPD...2018.09.11.pdf

What I look for is exactly this type of sheet for races in UK and IRE. Anybody knows?

[JBEX]

saratoga

100.. 1OT/ 3 up boys
98.. oc62.5k 2OT/3 up boys
97.. G2 stakes/ 3yo fillies
95..msw / 3 up boys
93 ..1OT nyb /3 up boys


Hi JBEX,

I looked at these again and the 1 OT ( other than)3 and up boys looks like it might be a non winners in an allowance race in a year or something like that. Or maybe a 3 OT.
The 2OT runs slower than the 1OT which doesn't match up.
Not a big deal but something is off somewhere I assume.
Thought I would let you and everyone know.

I thought about that also and I don't think it's a mistake.. the top 3 year olds who win at saratoga in a 1OT will often go on to try stakes company I would think.. the winners those type of races produce might ultimately exceed the next level up because you're getting some potential really big horses who will skip the next level (2OT) therefore making those races a little slower.. if you're hitting that as a 4yo or up for whatever the tag is those fields may actually be a little weaker..i cannot go back back and check unfortunately but I will try and see what the numbers at belmont are for those conditions

[JBEX]

hey str

just got beat at finger lakes by what imo was an action horse (mine finished 4th a ways back).. didn't check the chart but typically finger lakes gets about 35k in the wps pool..trying to do the math factoring in the ml as to how much money they could put on this horse (assuming they did) with that pool amount

trying to get an approximate amount in wps to be shared after track take..

$35k wps pool
66% wps pool in win pool
55% after track take from win pool
$19k to be distributed to bettors in win pool


8-1 ml.. imo fair for what was on paper but of course that's subjective


paid $8.70 and was as low as 5-2 with 2 mtp


so at 8-1 about $2k should be on this horse.. add a $1000 bet he's now under 6-1..$2000 he's around 9-2


at a small track like finger lakes this betting could come from 1 or 2 sources?

do they factor in how much their bet could impact the pools?

I would think at $1000 if they are good they could overcome the odds dip but @ $2000 more suspect
.. what do you think?


how good do you think the source of these bets are over the long haul and are these types of bets more effective at smaller tracks?.. my guess would be yes because a little tighter community and easier to be more certain about things than a bigger track

[MadTiger]

Just a little somethin' somethin' for a contest:

Kentucky Downs

Race 6
4-The Craic

Race 7
3-Summer Luck

Race 8
3-Pamina

Race 9
6-Bandua

Race 10
1-Silver Shield

[JBEX]

str.. never seen anything like this

GP R4 yesterday

2yo fillies 5f turf msw.. running line of place horse

3-2 * 2-2 * 5-11 * 2- 3/4 length (< length loss)

final eighth 12.63
so does that mean he covered that in 10.6..wow !!

very well bred fts (distance top/bottom) trained by pletcher.. guessing he's happy with that effort !

[str]

str.. never seen anything like this

GP R4 yesterday

2yo fillies 5f turf msw.. running line of place horse

3-2 * 2-2 * 5-11 * 2- 3/4 length (< length loss)

final eighth 12.63
so does that mean he covered that in 10.6..wow !!

very well bred fts (distance top/bottom) trained by pletcher.. guessing he's happy with that effort !

You have to confirm this by watching the replay.

I have seen typos that say things like this and it was not accurate.

If accurate, it is a great race. But... you have to be sure.

[str]

hey str

just got beat at finger lakes by what imo was an action horse (mine finished 4th a ways back).. didn't check the chart but typically finger lakes gets about 35k in the wps pool..trying to do the math factoring in the ml as to how much money they could put on this horse (assuming they did) with that pool amount

trying to get an approximate amount in wps to be shared after track take..

$35k wps pool
66% wps pool in win pool
55% after track take from win pool
$19k to be distributed to bettors in win pool


8-1 ml.. imo fair for what was on paper but of course that's subjective


paid $8.70 and was as low as 5-2 with 2 mtp


so at 8-1 about $2k should be on this horse.. add a $1000 bet he's now under 6-1..$2000 he's around 9-2


at a small track like finger lakes this betting could come from 1 or 2 sources?

do they factor in how much their bet could impact the pools?

I would think at $1000 if they are good they could overcome the odds dip but @ $2000 more suspect
.. what do you think?


how good do you think the source of these bets are over the long haul and are these types of bets more effective at smaller tracks?.. my guess would be yes because a little tighter community and easier to be more certain about things than a bigger track

Seems I missed this one Jbex. Sorry about that.
I had two guys that I would talk to quite a bit that were professional gamblers back in the 80's and 90's in Maryland. One did fly around to mandatory pick 6 payoff races with large pots several times a year.

They learned from me, although one of them was a trainer for about 5 years before becoming a pro gambler, and I learned from them.
And it's not like most think. They had no interest in who I might like or anything I had heard. Both they and I knew how poor backstretch tips really are. They would ask if I liked a certain horse of mine now and then because they either already liked it or already did not like it. They rarely said which one and I did not care what they thought about my horse. It only mattered what I thought about my horse .
Just a yes was all they were looking for and not very often at all. And that was ok because I would tell anyone that asked yes if I did or tell them tough race, need some luck if I felt that way. Don't think I ever ran one that I flat out did not think had at least a chance except a homebred horse in a stake that the owner was forcing me to run in and was clearly over its head. I put up with that for a while when I was young but that stuff ended after awhile. I just hated it. Guess that's why I am always Leary of homebreds.

I asked them how they dealt with pool size. They knew exactly how much money to put into each pool and the effects of it on payoffs.
For them, that was a key towards having a positive ROI.
They would spread with win, exacta, triples and pick 3-6's. Whatever was offered back then because not all the pick whatever's were available yet. Pk 6's were for sure but not sure about the others. They could play small into DD's if offered as those pools were small. But a 30.00 DD bet was an option sometimes. No more than that though. They would mix the pools and the plays were about 600-800 a race each and they probably averaged 3 or 4 plays a card. Maybe a little less. Some days they watched all day and never made a play for any number of reasons.The amount put into the race was also carefully decided upon by the odds of the horse they wanted to play. A typical handle then was about 1 million on a 9 race weekday.

Now and then maybe double that amount for a Saturday handle or holiday.
On Preakness day they would play many more races because of the novice money pouring in . They would scale the top races to play for about 2-3 k per play each mostly win, exacta and triple and play smaller in the others just for the opportunity to find hidden value that they new existed because of their long daily routine of notes, replays and watching every race in Maryland live everyday.
They did not miss a day. And I knew that because I didn't either.
They made a living but for the hours they put in , that's all it was.
The glamour stories you see and hear are largely fictional. A big time score helps but the daily grind of that business is really tough.

Not sure about amounts at the smaller tracks but CT was about 70.00 in win pools on 8-1 shots and maybe a bit more in exactas.

Those guys stayed away from Charlestown because the pools were minuscule. Same with Penn.
Today might be different than back then , I don't know.
So I think this answer can be plugged into each track depending on handle.
Seems like you have a pretty good read on amounts into pools before you start betting against yourself.
Nice find JBEX.

[JBEX]

np str... I've read before that what seems glamorous (pro gambler) ends up being a lot of work for not so great compensation for those who have taken on the challenge.. interesting that pool size was factored in to their equation.. back in those days before simulcasting, pools were certainly much smaller so makes sense you had to be more carefull with bet sizing


but lol,, with the example given above at finger lakes you wouldn't be put off by the horse going off at less than half what he looks like on paper if you liked a different one ? I understand it happened to work that time but over the long haul would you say it's a non factor based on backstretch information is not valuable?

[str]

np str... I've read before that what seems glamorous (pro gambler) ends up being a lot of work for not so great compensation for those who have taken on the challenge.. interesting that pool size was factored in to their equation.. back in those days before simulcasting, pools were certainly much smaller so makes sense you had to be more carefull with bet sizing


but lol,, with the example given above at finger lakes you wouldn't be put off by the horse going off at less than half what he looks like on paper if you liked a different one ? I understand it happened to work that time but over the long haul would you say it's a non factor based on backstretch information is not valuable?

Over the long haul it seemingly HAS to be a -EV situation.

Every track were I raced often enough to start to know the people, each one had a few players that loved to talk. But if I was able to be told the actual information circulating, in most cases it was a joke. And because the info was circulating, many many people knew about it. If you did not know about it, the tote board told you. So the horse would be over bet and if it happened to win, it paid far less than it otherwise would have. So with a much lower ROI than what should have been on the winners touted combines with the horses that are touted that run out, it equates to a minus ROI.
Often times where I ran, the touted horse was coming from a less than 10% winning outfit. Combine that with what I said before and all those numbers spell long term losing .
I hate to say it would be an auto toss, as no horse should be that, but it by no means drew me towards playing the horse. Only exception would be a horse that should be 40-1 who is 12 or 15-1. Maybe I throw a horse like that in. But I would consider the trainer and rider heavily before doing so as well as DD pools and exacta pools, equipment and rider changes, etc. to try and see a clearer picture. But no way on a horse bet way down. They just lose too often to chase a small payout.

[JBEX]

Over the long haul it seemingly HAS to be a -EV situation.

Every track were I raced often enough to start to know the people, each one had a few players that loved to talk. But if I was able to be told the actual information circulating, in most cases it was a joke. And because the info was circulating, many many people knew about it. If you did not know about it, the tote board told you. So the horse would be over bet and if it happened to win, it paid far less than it otherwise would have. So with a much lower ROI than what should have been on the winners touted combines with the horses that are touted that run out, it equates to a minus ROI.
Often times where I ran, the touted horse was coming from a less than 10% winning outfit. Combine that with what I said before and all those numbers spell long term losing .
I hate to say it would be an auto toss, as no horse should be that, but it by no means drew me towards playing the horse. Only exception would be a horse that should be 40-1 who is 12 or 15-1. Maybe I throw a horse like that in. But I would consider the trainer and rider heavily before doing so as well as DD pools and exacta pools, equipment and rider changes, etc. to try and see a clearer picture. But no way on a horse bet way down. They just lose too often to chase a small payout.

ok str...good to know your perspective on this .. makes sense to me as far as -EV situation with odds you're getting when they do win being too low..not going to let that sway me anymore