[str]

While I was on that website I saw this picture and had to show it to everyone that follows this thread.

If you want to see how important covering up the right eye is, take a look at the picture in the link. Look at the horse on the lead. Look at the horses intensity in it's eyes. Cover him up early and you will make him quit. Same with some of the others but to a lesser extent. Fans do not get to see this kind of stuff and are not able to put how important this is into perspective typically. But if anyone has followed how riders ride on the lead or when they stalk and a horse approaches the right eye of the stalker, it is easy to see why riders move to protect that position and not get pinned if at all possible. There is a lot to see and learn from in this picture.

Hope it helps.

http://www.hollywoodcasinocharlestown.com/Racing.aspx

[str]

While I was on that website I saw this picture and had to show it to everyone that follows this thread.

If you want to see how important covering up the right eye is, take a look at the picture in the link. Look at the horse on the lead. Look at the horses intensity in it's eyes. Cover him up early and you will make him quit. Same with some of the others but to a lesser extent. Fans do not get to see this kind of stuff and are not able to put how important this is into perspective typically. But if anyone has followed how riders ride on the lead or when they stalk and a horse approaches the right eye of the stalker, it is easy to see why riders move to protect that position and not get pinned if at all possible. There is a lot to see and learn from in this picture.

Hope it helps.

http://www.hollywoodcasinocharlestown.com/Racing.aspx

Also check out the eyes of the horse with the green blinkers just off the pace but pinned.
Think that horse likes where it is?

[JBEX]

the clean right eye has always made sense to me..unless you really have a ton of horse (the leader) another horse pulling along side of you is discouraging..do you think the horse being past has a sense of how much the horse who's pulled up along side of him has in the tank ?

[str]

the clean right eye has always made sense to me..unless you really have a ton of horse (the leader) another horse pulling along side of you is discouraging..do you think the horse being past has a sense of how much the horse who's pulled up along side of him has in the tank ?

More often than not, yes.

[JBEX]

Wow ! The horse is 7 years old. I am sure that I have spoken about 7 year old geldings in here before. It was by far my favorite age to claim older geldings. I don't know what it is but I had a ton of luck with 7 year olds.

you think,assuming a horse is sound and lightly raced, that at 5yo he's physically mature but another
year or two could settle him down even more? he really understands what it's all about for lack of a better way to put it and approaches things more professionally

[str]

you think,assuming a horse is sound and lightly raced, that at 5yo he's physically mature but another
year or two could settle him down even more? he really understands what it's all about for lack of a better way to put it and approaches things more professionally

I know that we used to run more than by today's standards. That said, most of the 7 year olds I am thinking about were racing sound but not totally sound. That is really rare if they have run for 4-5 years. Most have had an operated knee where a chip was removed ( always upper joint as almost all lower joint chips just cannot hold up over time) , or a broken foot, or weak muscle in the hind end or something, but it didn't hurt like a hot active joint, it was more the arthritic state that the joint or area was in. And because of that, if you really worked hard on them, they typically responded.
When I trained, about 1 out of 5 trainers REALLY worked on horses. Whirlpools, sonic machines, tenz units, proper training for maximum help towards an arthritic area, bandages and a lot of them, mud in there feet every day, poultice, liniments, proper diet to control bleeding and breathing, proper shoeing down to the smallest detail, etc. It cost a lot of money and many of the trainers in Md. either did not have that money or chose not to spend it. Some of this stuff was state of the art type stuff back then . Incredible right?
It was a system I learned under and because of that system, I quickly became better than about 70-80% of the trainers on the grounds on day one. Then, the results followed and before I knew it, I had a barnfull.
When I was a groom, I rubbed a horse that my mentor claimed for 14,500. Bad bleeder, operated knee. But other than that, he was fine. Lol, that probably sounds a lot worse than it really was. Anyway, this horse went right up the ladder and started winning Stakes within about a year. My first stakes win as a groom was the Oceanport Handicap at Monmouth Park in 73. This old claimer beat Halo ! And guess how old he was when he did that? Yep, he was 7.
Yes, they do fully understand what it's all about by then and if you can get them happy, they can really get on a streak and beat horses that you would have thought they never could.

[JBEX]

I know that we used to run more than by today's standards. That said, most of the 7 year olds I am thinking about were racing sound but not totally sound. That is really rare if they have run for 4-5 years. Most have had an operated knee where a chip was removed ( always upper joint as almost all lower joint chips just cannot hold up over time) , or a broken foot, or weak muscle in the hind end or something, but it didn't hurt like a hot active joint, it was more the arthritic state that the joint or area was in. And because of that, if you really worked hard on them, they typically responded.
When I trained, about 1 out of 5 trainers REALLY worked on horses. Whirlpools, sonic machines, tenz units, proper training for maximum help towards an arthritic area, bandages and a lot of them, mud in there feet every day, poultice, liniments, proper diet to control bleeding and breathing, proper shoeing down to the smallest detail, etc. It cost a lot of money and many of the trainers in Md. either did not have that money or chose not to spend it. Some of this stuff was state of the art type stuff back then . Incredible right?
It was a system I learned under and because of that system, I quickly became better than about 70-80% of the trainers on the grounds on day one. Then, the results followed and before I knew it, I had a barnfull.
When I was a groom, I rubbed a horse that my mentor claimed for 14,500. Bad bleeder, operated knee. But other than that, he was fine. Lol, that probably sounds a lot worse than it really was. Anyway, this horse went right up the ladder and started winning Stakes within about a year. My first stakes win as a groom was the Oceanport Handicap at Monmouth Park in 73. This old claimer beat Halo ! And guess how old he was when he did that? Yep, he was 7.
Yes, they do fully understand what it's all about by then and if you can get them happy, they can really get on a streak and beat horses that you would have thought they never could.

yeah I guess sound was a bit of a reach for a 7yo..you have to get them in better shape before you'd see improvement and i'm impressed at the lengths no pun intended you went to get them there.. wow !!

beating halo in a stakes at mth with a 7yo..that must have felt good for the team.. and he went on to sire one of the greatest sires in the world, easy goer's old pal sunday silence.. great stuff

[Thunderground]

probably overthinking things, so removed question.

[str]

probably overthinking things, so removed question.

Sorry you removed it. I thought it was a great question. I asked that type question but a little differently to CJ way back when he was still in Md.

My question was how long do you follow horses and what view are you looking for when you sit in the back of the pack waiting?

The answer was, no, he didn't try and follow horses unless it took him to the spot he anticipated needing to be in by a certain point in order to make the next maneuver to find daylight without having to go around everybody.

Making a move from far back requires weaving in and out typically to not lose a ton of ground. That is much easier to do at tracks that are not the elite meets because the riders cannot ride quite as tight as the elite riders can. That's not to say you can't get through in a Breeders Cup race as compared to a claimer in Md. on a Thursday, but the windows of opportunity and the size of the openings are much tighter.

And yes, it would be quite revealing if you could see what every rider was thinking. It would sure tell you who the better riders were pretty quickly but it would also show you who is better at closing, who is better on the lead or stalking, etc.

Isn't there a virtual reality type game or something what allows someone to try and be the jockey? If not, there sure should be. If people had the chance to see what the riders challenges are when closing, they would have a true understanding of what is going on. I didn't have that, but I was in a position to sit in the jocks room or a living room anytime I wanted to and talk about this stuff with riders for hours at a time before we all had kids. I wish more people had the chance to learn this stuff that cared to. It would open up avenues of clarity and make the races so much more understandable. That is why, in my small way, I do this thread.

Wish I could have answered your question yesterday. I read it but had a birthday party for my 4 and 6 year old grandkids as well as there 86 year old great grandfather. It kicked by butt too. Today I feel 86. Sore as hell. Maybe I need to walk an extra day or two and jog the wrong way for a week until I start bucking and kicking again.

Hope that helps.

[JBEX]

hey str

was looking at pace figures for the first 2 calls of a race at a mile on the turf at saratoga last year.. I've seen high numbers but nothing like these.. they had the leader 15 lengths fast to the 4f mark and 10 lengths fast to the 6f mark.. pretty sure I'm reading it right as they give it as a number which you have to divide by 2 to get lengths behind.. think that's possible?

[JBEX]

hey str

was looking at pace figures for the first 2 calls of a race at a mile on the turf at saratoga last year.. I've seen high numbers but nothing like these.. they had the leader 15 lengths fast to the 4f mark and 10 lengths fast to the 6f mark.. pretty sure I'm reading it right as they give it as a number which you have to divide by 2 to get lengths behind.. think that's possible?

of course it's not..can't believe I even asked this lol...but it makes me question those figures that I always use

[str]

of course it's not..can't believe I even asked this lol...but it makes me question those figures that I always use

Whose figures do you use?

[JBEX]

Whose figures do you use?

I use brisnet's..they come with the pp's..the outlier's which are very infrequent come in at 10-15 lengths fast or slow

[str]

I use brisnet's..they come with the pp's..the outlier's which are very infrequent come in at 10-15 lengths fast or slow

I never used figures. That said, how about timeformUS Speed figures? Don't know if they cost money and if so, how much. I just know that the guy that does them knows what he is talking about.

[JBEX]

I never used figures. That said, how about timeformUS Speed figures? Don't know if they cost money and if so, how much. I just know that the guy that does them knows what he is talking about.

yeah i remember mikemca said he was good..I'll just get along with these though..don't want to spend the extra money and like everything in one place..pace figures aren't a front line method for me..have to make do with them

[Thunderground]

Thanks str. I felt like I was probably overthinking things because it would be hard to predict the scenario. But many times I see a short to medium priced closer starting to make his move, and then a longshot latches on and follows in his path. The horse is now locked into the other horse, it seems to me, and if he can keep up the battle, and the leading closer succeeds with his move, then the longshot is usually in the money as well.

So if that scenario would happen in a race where a favorite is involved in a battle upfront, and that horse is locked into his own battle, things can get very interesting very quickly in terms of odds. The locking in on another horse has different effects (one positive, the other negative), which can be helpful. So my question revolved around the idea of a horse recognizing the battle - with one other horse. In both a speed duel, and with a closer following another closer, the horse seems to focus specifically on one horse, and the rest of the field is forgotten.

[mrginandtonic]

Good morning Sir, I want to know your opinion on racing at Churchill. For most horses, do you think it’s an advantage to have a horse race or at least a workout at Churchill prior to the Detby? I hear so many times that a trainer or jockey said that their horse didn’t like the track. But it’s always after the fact. Is it just an excuse? If not, then isn’t it always better to have at least a workout? Or is it the fact the they don’t wont to find out before hand cuz it is after all the Derby? Tks in advance.

Also, which track in the US that is similar to Churchill Downs?

[JBEX]

horse the last race at thistledown

13 year old gelding

126-25-12-26 career
50% in the money

84-17-8-17 fast tracks
also exactly 50% itm
exactly ⅔ of his races on fast tracks


18-3-3-5 $21522 for 2017
not bad


owner trainer is 7/200 dating to beginning of 2017 so this old timer accounts for almost half of her wins lol ... making his first start of the year.. thought you'd get a kick out of this str

[str]

Thanks str. I felt like I was probably overthinking things because it would be hard to predict the scenario. But many times I see a short to medium priced closer starting to make his move, and then a longshot latches on and follows in his path. The horse is now locked into the other horse, it seems to me, and if he can keep up the battle, and the leading closer succeeds with his move, then the longshot is usually in the money as well.

So if that scenario would happen in a race where a favorite is involved in a battle upfront, and that horse is locked into his own battle, things can get very interesting very quickly in terms of odds. The locking in on another horse has different effects (one positive, the other negative), which can be helpful. So my question revolved around the idea of a horse recognizing the battle - with one other horse. In both a speed duel, and with a closer following another closer, the horse seems to focus specifically on one horse, and the rest of the field is forgotten.

Q. I felt like I was probably overthinking things because it would be hard to predict the scenario.

A. This is what I would do in conjunction with where my horse I trained would most likely be, every time I ran one. I relayed that to the rider so we were on the same page with what the horse likes and dislikes. didn't always work out that way but it did much more often than not. That , I felt, gave us the best chance to run to our potential.

Q. So my question revolved around the idea of a horse recognizing the battle - with one other horse. In both a speed duel, and with a closer following another closer, the horse seems to focus specifically on one horse, and the rest of the field is forgotten.


A. With a speed duel, sure. That happens often. And the rider inside tries to protect the right eye while the outside rider tries to take it away, and lean on the horse inside if possible to break down it's confidence. That portion is indeed a game within the game so to speak.

But with a closer, the rider has plenty of traffic to deal with as well as the dirt spray. Holes are moving targets and they can close up or open up somewhere else. They have to pick the path that allows them to not get stopped when they are rallying. Choosing to lock up with one horse wouldn't make sense and the control they have with the bit over their mount and the constant guidance that they have the ability to relay to the horse has the horse thinking about the commands and not having a wandering mind to think of what the horse might think on it's own.

Lastly, you asked the other day before deleting it about other riders in a race working to pin the big favorite. This happens in big races often enough to double check and make sure the rider on that big favorite is capable of handling the moment. Look no further than a google search of Spectacular Bid and see what Cordaro and company tried to do t, and actually did, to Franklin in Florida Im pretty sure on the trail to the Derby.

Hope that makes sense.

[str]

Good morning Sir, I want to know your opinion on racing at Churchill. For most horses, do you think it’s an advantage to have a horse race or at least a workout at Churchill prior to the Detby? I hear so many times that a trainer or jockey said that their horse didn’t like the track. But it’s always after the fact. Is it just an excuse? If not, then isn’t it always better to have at least a workout? Or is it the fact the they don’t wont to find out before hand cuz it is after all the Derby? Tks in advance.
Also, which track in the US that is similar to Churchill Downs?

Q. do you think it’s an advantage to have a horse race or at least a workout at Churchill prior to the Detby?

A. Yes.

Q. I hear so many times that a trainer or jockey said that their horse didn’t like the track. But it’s always after the fact. Is it just an excuse?

A. It can be just an excuse but Churchill is probably one of the deepest tracks on a completely dry surface in the U.S. Because of that, when it has not rained in at least several days, the track usually becomes loose and cuppy, especially inside and some horses just struggle to stride out fully and feel comfortable with it.

Q. If not, then isn’t it always better to have at least a workout? Or is it the fact the they don’t wont to find out before hand cuz it is after all the Derby? Tks in advance.


A. I think it is exactly what you asked. Yes, it can be better to have worked over it but with all the scrutiny surrounding the Derby and the fact that it is so different than some of the tracks horses are used to, it's reward is probably not worth the risk. A lot of things , minor things, but big enough to set a horse back a week or two can happen when they work over a deeper surface for the 1st time. And because that final work , except for the 3/8ths blowout stuff is soooo important, I can understand why trainers are reluctant to lay all the cards on the table 5-7 days before the big race.

Churchill is one of those tracks that if you find a horse that loves it there, think long and hard about not using it. The horse for course angle is in full play there always.

Lastly, if it is mud or rained the day prior where it is fast but still plenty of moisture in it, almost all the horses will like that surface, unless they hate the mud, because the moisture keeps it from becoming too loose and cupping or breaking out from under the horses feet which makes the horse unsure of the footing and therefore makes the horse shorten their strides to feel safe on it. And the shorter stride makes them not as fast.
Also with mud, the last ten years or so, if weather is coming the maintenance crew scrapes the heck out of the inside and a rail bias almost always appears. Just ask Mine That Bird. Look for that if the weather works out that way.

If the track is very dry and no rain for a week or so, the rail can become deep and the outside seems to shine as well as speed and close position. Gotta look for all this stuff starting today in at least charts and replays if possible ( always the best alternative but it takes time) or as soon as they race there leading up to Saturday.

Q. Also, which track in the US that is similar to Churchill Downs?


A. In my day it would be Delaware Park. A race over the track was darn near a must. But it's been a long time and I can't say it is still like that for sure. There are more I am sure, but of the east coast tracks that I raced over, that one is the most similar IMO.

Hope all that helps.

[str]

horse the last race at thistledown

13 year old gelding

126-25-12-26 career
50% in the money

84-17-8-17 fast tracks
also exactly 50% itm
exactly ⅔ of his races on fast tracks


18-3-3-5 $21522 for 2017
not bad


owner trainer is 7/200 dating to beginning of 2017 so this old timer accounts for almost half of her wins lol ... making his first start of the year.. thought you'd get a kick out of this str

Wow. Very cool horse. A pro at what he does. You have to admire a horse like that. Not so much the trainer though.

[JBEX]

Wow. Very cool horse. A pro at what he does. You have to admire a horse like that. Not so much the trainer though.

i do but sure you can relate to it more..is that the maximum age they can race? thought I remember reading that somewhere..if so towards the end of the year he probably's not gonna get claimed ..not that he would anyway...wonder if a
13yo ever got claimed anyway lol

[JBEX]

hey str

why would a guy like asmussen who trains high volume at many of the major east coast tracks want to get involved with cheap claimers at small southern tracks ? noticed he owns quite a few of them..he has around 2000 starts a year if i'm reading the pp's right..you'd think with the top stock he has that he wouldn't want the hassle of looking over these types...understand the size and scope of his operation is huge and he has multiple assistants..must have a huge degree of faith that he'll do well with these cheapies.. sure at the end of the day he must or why bother

[Easy-Rider 66]

Alright STR: It's Derby Time. Leaning Bolt D'Oro right now, and may throw one longer shot in the mix. If you look it over would like your opinion. Thx.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Adding the #5 Audible to the mix. Look forward to your thoughts on the race if you look it over. Thx.

[str]

hey str

why would a guy like asmussen who trains high volume at many of the major east coast tracks want to get involved with cheap claimers at small southern tracks ? noticed he owns quite a few of them..he has around 2000 starts a year if i'm reading the pp's right..you'd think with the top stock he has that he wouldn't want the hassle of looking over these types...understand the size and scope of his operation is huge and he has multiple assistants..must have a huge degree of faith that he'll do well with these cheapies.. sure at the end of the day he must or why bother

I do not know him so this is just my opinion. I don't think it's the money. I think he wants the wins to pile up for leading wins all time. He is about 1500 away and the leader passed away years ago. Probably 5 or 6 years and he gets on top.
That is the only thing that makes sense too me as to why he would do it.

[str]

Alright STR: It's Derby Time. Leaning Bolt D'Oro right now, and may throw one longer shot in the mix. If you look it over would like your opinion. Thx.

I think I will wait until Saturday. It looks like rain is coming for Friday and might continue through Saturday. I would assume the rail will be a great spot on Friday. It wont take long to tell. Speed should do well also. We will see.

[JBEX]

I think I will wait until Saturday. It looks like rain is coming for Friday and might continue through Saturday. I would assume the rail will be a great spot on Friday. It wont take long to tell. Speed should do well also. We will see.

they're calling for less than an inch friday into saturday..do you think if that's accurate (big if) that the track has a decent shot of being at least good ?

[str]

they're calling for less than an inch friday into saturday..do you think if that's accurate (big if) that the track has a decent shot of being at least good ?

Yes. But... that track is actually more fair for everyone WITH moisture in it. It gets loose and too sandy when it's dry. Right about now , if rain is certain for tomorrow there is a big chance they are getting ready to scrape the rail and if it is anything like years past, the rail will be the place to be for both speed and closing tomorrow. Just have to wait and see but if that is the case, tomorrow will be a good day to play there. A ton of novice money and a bias few see is a solid betting opportunity. No chance for me but hopefully some here can keep an eye on it .

[str]

Yes. But... that track is actually more fair for everyone WITH moisture in it. It gets loose and too sandy when it's dry. Right about now , if rain is certain for tomorrow there is a big chance they are getting ready to scrape the rail and if it is anything like years past, the rail will be the place to be for both speed and closing tomorrow. Just have to wait and see but if that is the case, tomorrow will be a good day to play there. A ton of novice money and a bias few see is a solid betting opportunity. No chance for me but hopefully some here can keep an eye on it .

Best case for all would be a drying out track on Saturday. I did hear this morning that they had a chance for lingering showers throughout Saturday and that would make it muddy or sloppy for the Derby. Lets look for an update tomorrow morning to get a clearer picture.

[str]

Can anyone tell me if it actually rained at all on friday at Churchill? Maybe light rain?

From the charts , it was speed all day on the main track. Most winners were 1,2 just about all the way with the furthest back being 4th. I see the tack was labeled fast but the amount of moisture on the track would be the key.

[JBEX]

Can anyone tell me if it actually rained at all on friday at Churchill? Maybe light rain?

From the charts , it was speed all day on the main track. Most winners were 1,2 just about all the way with the furthest back being 4th. I see the tack was labeled fast but the amount of moisture on the track would be the key.

i'm not sure str.. i didn't watch the early part of the he card

[Seaward843]

Can anyone tell me if it actually rained at all on friday at Churchill? Maybe light rain?

From the charts , it was speed all day on the main track. Most winners were 1,2 just about all the way with the furthest back being 4th. I see the tack was labeled fast but the amount of moisture on the track would be the key.

Hopefully someone locally can back this up but according to the CoCoRaHS (precipitation measuring network) the closest rain gauges to Churchill Downs only had trace amounts of rain and one a further east recorded a hundredth of an inch. So to answer your question, if it rained, it was light with little to no accumulation.

The high resolution models are showing they could get anywhere from trace amounts of rain to 2 inches of rain today (thats most likely over done though).

[str]

Would like to see a few races before picking for sure. But not sure when I can get back here so here are my thoughts if anybody cares.

Assuming I would be playing a triple:

1. Firenze Fire- Just seems overmatched .

2. Free Drop Willy- Plodder but probably gets a rail trip for a good portion which should be a good thing and he is a winner over the track, ran well in mud if that happens and Romans is the home team. Will have him 3rd in my triples. Currently 42-1

3. Promise Fulfilled- Should make the lead early and with speed doing so well yesterday will probably stick around longer than that last mess he ran when he and another horse went waaaay too fast and burned each other up. It seems like Justify ( as long as he breaks and gets away from the field the first 1/8th) should be laying 2nd to his outside and I would think Justify would be more than happy to allow this horse to carry the field past the 3/8ths pole if he can. That would not surprise me, but once Justify or another horse if Justify gets tangled up early moves to him, I would think, bias or not, that he will have little left for the drive. I am going to leave him off my ticket. Don't bite me in the rear end bias . 41-1

4. Flameaway- This horse always seems to put in a run and I see no reason why he would not today as well. 53-1 has him in the 3rd slot on my ticket every time.

5. Audible - Third start off the layoff which is usually a solid angle and especially if the first two were with this race in mind. I don't see any holes in him on paper. He should be fairly close to the rail, not way back unless he gets tangled up early and from that spot he would have to regress to not be in the hunt. Maybe he will but I can't see that on paper. He will be on all three spots of my ticket. He is currently 6-1.

6. Good Magic- He is by no means a weak horse in here but it seems to me that he will end up laying in the back 7,8,9 or 10 horses early. And while I would not be shocked at all if he would run well and ruin my ticket, I have to take a stand against some of the low prices and laying back like I think he will do early, allows me to toss him, especially off yesterday's speed favoring results and without the benefit of seeing today's earlier races prior to posting this ticket. 8-1

7. Justify- If he does not break clean he can get tangled up early and a lack of experience can bite him in the butt. But he will load 13th out of 20 so he won't be in there THAT long. I worry about him getting off slowly in races so far but three slower horses outside of him gives him two or three extra steps to get going. That said, if he breaks and gets that solo outside 2nd position into the 1st turn with the 3 leading the way, it is his his race to lose from that point on. The first 20 seconds of the race is critical for him IMO. But I do think he is the most talented horse in here so as much as I want to toss him and light up the board, the speed favoring ( I assume it stays the same as yesterday) track and the lack of early speed to get into his right eye early in all probability has me using in in all three slots on my ticket. But as you will see, if he runs out, I have plenty of other chances. 7-2.

8. Lone Sailor- He should be running late and while I am not sure he wants this distance, I like the inside post to help be on the better part of the track early and I never met a longshot closer with a race ( two actually) over the track and whose only win was in the slop and rain being at least a solid maybe over this sometimes tricky surface that I didn't like. 28-1.

9. Hofburg- Another third off the layoff and has improved with every race. Running in the Derby is not Mott's style so that tells you how special this horse has acted up to now. I would not be stunned at all if he won, but I would be upset because I have this guy in the 2nd and 3rd slots on my ticket. Him winning would not shock me a bit but would sting pretty good. 24-1. If I change any part of this ticket it would be to add him in all three spots because of that juicy price on what I perceive to be a live horse.

10. My Boy Jack- If I had any thoughts of using him in the 3rd spot, that all went out the window when I see he is currently 5-1. That blows my mind. No way at anything near that price. If he runs 1,2,3, I lose and that's ok with me at that number.

11. Bolt D'oro- I like him, and will have him in all three spots on my ticket. Another 3rd off the layoff and improving with each start. I see some trainer % numbers that are not the greatest but I'm a believer. 8-1

12. Enticed - I hate throwing out a horse that has won over this track AND won on an off track but I am going to. Hope I don't regret it. 52-1

13.Bravazo- I don't see it. 68-1

14. Mendelssohn- He ran right out of the TV in Dubai but there was such a stupid speed bias that it really muddies the water. He is probably a really nice horse, but the trip over, the bias stuff and knowing I can't use them all has me hoping against him and his short odds. 5-1

15. Instilled Regard- I don't see it. Wish I could at 99-1.

16. Magnum Moon- I might be missing the boat on this horse but he just seems a cut below at least several of these IMO. 13-1

17. Solomini- If I don't see the 16 how can I like this one? I will pass on him. 68-1

18. Vino Rosso- Flameaway beat him twice and I am using Flameaway 3rd on my ticket. That has me not use this guy. 18-1

19. Noble Indy- He is another one that I think looks to be just a cut below several others IMO. I will pass. 49-1

20. Combatant- He just can't seem to make up any ground through the lane so far and I don't think that type of effort will get it done in here. I will pass on him as well. 78-1


So my ticket will be a 1.00 triple that looks like 5,7,11- 5,7,9,11- 2,4,5,7,8,9,11. That works out to be three times four times seven times 1.00 = 84.00. If we add the 9 to the top spot as well it will be 112.00.
Probably split that with one of my best friends from way back in the Bob Gibson era . I will save that gambling story for another day. Might even have already told it in this long and winding road of a thread.

Good luck everybody and please bet within your means. Don't get hurt and enjoy the greatest two minutes in sports!

[str]

Hopefully someone locally can back this up but according to the CoCoRaHS (precipitation measuring network) the closest rain gauges to Churchill Downs only had trace amounts of rain and one a further east recorded a hundredth of an inch. So to answer your question, if it rained, it was light with little to no accumulation.

The high resolution models are showing they could get anywhere from trace amounts of rain to 2 inches of rain today (thats most likely over done though).

Thanks for that update. I did see that the track was sealed during yesterday's card for most if not all of the dirt races. Above are my plays knowing I will not be able to see the card early.
Thanks again for the help.