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the takeout happens during the betting..the late odds change is simulcast money hitting the pool late.Originally Posted by Statman
the other thing I know very little about but I think you're in the ballpark with the 25k/year figure..str would know this much better than me
ok so during wagering leading up to the race as an example, only 1.70 of my $2 on an exotic wager goes into the pool based on a 15% takeout? I understand the track has enormous expenses to run it's operation and need these dollars to sustain it's existence but it ultimately becomes a balance act in many ways. Someone like myself will give my action to offshore entities based on the greater incentives they provide while others may feel playing at the track or an OTB allows one to receive their cash instantly. One book i use such as 5dimes will even offer an extra 10% on the win or exotic payoff price. Thank you again for your prompt reply.
JBEX took care of some questions. Here are the others.
Q. Secondly, what are your thoughts on racing syndicates like Team Valor and West Point Thoroughbreds? Is this the best way to get into the game as a owner/part owner?
I do not really care for those types of partnerships. Having spoken to people that were on this forum that tried it as well as others, and from the experiences they had I did not feel they were allowed to see the entire picture and some of the reasoning and write ups after the race made very little sense in some cases. I would not recommend them.
Q. Is this the best way to get into the game as a owner/part owner?
A. start to visit the paddock on days you are at the track and just stand around and listen to the people . You will find plenty of owners and people that have the same interest you do. Maybe start a dialog with a trainer as they leave the paddock area or if they have a box seat, walk up and introduce yourself and just start talking to them. Let them know your interests and see where the conversation goes.
I do not think I know anyone that races at Woodbine but keep me posted if you do talk to anyone and I can help you with what to ask or inquire about.
Q. At Woodbine, I've often heard the cost to keep a thoroughbred in training can be around $25k/year. Thank you again.
The per Diem rate will be consistent with the purse structure and the trainers consistent win %. It's probably 25 or 30k to carry a horse but that will go up by 20% of whatever the horse would earn. 10% each to the rider and trainer is a fair rule of thumb to calculate projected costs. You can ask an owner when you strike up a conversation around the paddock.
Hey str,
Just some quick follow-up questions from going back and reading the thread.
-Going wide in the 1st turn in a 2-turn route is bad. Is being wide in the turn during sprints equally as bad?
-When it comes to position horses and watching their replays, how do you determine what they are capable of doing in a race today? Like, how would you seperate them as contenders if say you thought the front running speed horses weren't capable? I saw way back that you wanted position horses to have a comfortable race as well.
-Can every horse's result in a race be explained by trips? I mean, let's say a horse had odds going back the last few races of 12-20 with results to match. Can a horse's results like this be explained by replays, or should we just think it is being placed in a class thats not appropriate?
-Would you say its possible for a horse to have a result, that replays just cant explain?
Thanks for the help!!
Q. -Going wide in the 1st turn in a 2-turn route is bad. Is being wide in the turn during sprints equally as bad?
A. No. The clubhouse turn is simply a waste of feet run and energy. The race has not really started yet as far as the horse and rider are concerned. It is hard to win it around the clubhouse turn, other than to slow the pace way down with a solo lead, but you can definitely lose it around the first turn by being way wide, going too fast up front, checking off heels if a horse drops over on you, etc.
Around the far turn, the horse is hopefully making it's move . In a perfect world, you would never be wide but traffic, horses preferences, bias, etc. makes you do so.
Q. -When it comes to position horses and watching their replays, how do you determine what they are capable of doing in a race today?
A. You see if the race has enough different speeds to get a hopefully solid early pace, you see how many other position types are in the race. You watch replays if necessary to see which positions had good or bad trips last out to see if their racing line in the forum is better than it should have been because of a perfect trip or worse than it should have been because of a tough trip. ( If you follow the same track everyday, you will make notes while watching replays THAT day so all you have to do is check the old program for trip notes. It takes about five or six minutes if you do it that day. It can take an hour if you did not. Much easier to write notes on the program and save them for easy reference. Also, not every horse gets a good or bad trip. At least 1/2 the field gets a OK trip but nothing that helped or hurt a lot.)
Q. Like, how would you seperate them as contenders if say you thought the front running speed horses weren't capable?
A. the way I just explained. See who benefited and who was hurt from it's previous race trip if that even exists. Then, try and map out how today's race will shape up. Like rail trip, or will be parked 3-4 wide , etc. Nothing is perfect as you cannot predict exactly how every race will take shape. But you can often enough in terms of trips to find a horse that comes off a bad trip and looks to be coming into a spot that should shape up great.
Q. I saw way back that you wanted position horses to have a comfortable race as well.
A. You always hope for a good position and a comfortable one as well. But sometimes that just doesn't happen. Doing what I just said will improve the odds of a certain trip happening over the course of time. It cannot be perfect though. But nothing is.
Q. Can every horse's result in a race be explained by trips? I mean, let's say a horse had odds going back the last few races of 12-20 with results to match. Can a horse's results like this be explained by replays, or should we just think it is being placed in a class thats not appropriate?
A. No. A poorer than usual or better than usual result can most likely be explained by a easy or tough trip but nothing will always work. Sometimes they can have a perfect trip and falter just like Mr. G and T's horse did that we just talked about.
Q. -Would you say its possible for a horse to have a result, that replays just cant explain?
A. Absolutely. They could have a hundred different things happen to them or even happen to the rider that turns a perfect trip into a poor outing. They could bleed, throw a shoe, get bumped and have the wind knocked out of them, get hit with a small stone from the dirt spray, and about a hundred more. You cannot know about everything, but you can still know a lot more than most.
Thanks so much for the answer, I had a followup if thats ok.
For a horse that showed nothing but had decent odds (or bad odds, guess it doesnt matter?) and the replay couldnt explain the bad race, what could we look at to see if they will improve for next race? This is assuming the better performances in the past were a mix of good to average to bad trips.
good answers....But I will say track bias and or pace is probably the biggest reason you see horses improve..One great betting angle is to to bet closer type horses who ran in merrygoround races where the front runners finish 1-2 or front runner that faded to deep closers while holding off the other pressing speed types...If you go back and watch Dubai races from last saturday you can see how severe of a inside speed bias the dirt track played....I would LAY every dirt winner from Saturday in 3 weeks on DUBAI world cup day
Hey STR: Have you ever heard of the organization WHOA: waterhayoatsalliance.com? It's dedicated to ridding the sport of performance enhancing drugs. And do you think this was more a problem in your day or today? Thx.
Look for a change. Maybe Blks. On or off, fronts off, 1st Lasix, jockey change, horse was gelded, look for a 4-5 inch 2 week old incision, hair shaved is easy to spot, towards the top of the horses neck in the center, a different warm up pattern if you follow that. If it is any of these, the horse is well worth a 2nd look. There are others but these come to mind. And I do realize that doing most of this for many is darn near impossible.
There are other things that you might not be able to detect like a bit change, or tongue tie added.
If someone asks me what are the two most important factors in a race I will say pace and bias , if a bias exists. People do need to be careful with a bias as it is proclaimed to exist often times when it really does not. In a lot of those cases, it was the pace , albeit too fast or slow, or a solo lead or a mad rush up front that caused a result that LOOKED like a bias. People need to be careful of that.
I am a firm believer that pace , indeed makes the race.
Q. Have you ever heard of the organization WHOA: waterhayoatsalliance.com? It's dedicated to ridding the sport of performance enhancing drugs.
A. I recently saw the WHOA thing but was unclear what it actually was. While I applaud their effort to help make the sport better, as I think I have said before, I cannot see how racing can stop giving lasix when virtually every sire and dam ran on it, in 90% of the cases, needed it, and in 95% of the cases, passed down the need for it to their offspring. Lasix that will be extremely difficult to get rid of. As long as you can give bute after the race when needed , running on it really isn't a big deal at all. It just cannot be zero tolerance, IMO.
It has to start, IMO, with giving less and less lasix, and over a decade or more of time, maybe, just maybe, they can start to get it back to where it was in the 60's and early 70's when no mare that was a true bleeder was ever bred . Same with sire prospects as they cannot be true bleeders when pushed to the highest level and be bred to without having offspring that are the same or worse. Of course doing so will be a huge hit to the breeding industry.
While bute is IMO far less of a problem, it still has to be considered a smaller part of the overall problem. Especially when some of these trainers are using Banamine and other pain killers that should IMO only be used when a horse is in urgent medical need for it. Giving Banamine as a pre race is a disgrace in my eyes. I do not know if it is still allowed today as a pre race.
You can clearly see where giving these two drugs as well as less discussed drugs as pre race drugs has completely changed the game , if for no other reason than to say that the breeding shed is flawed to the point that it is not capable of producing enough foals that do not need these drugs, for racing to exist at the volume that it does.
It also apparently shows , but I cannot say for sure, in the long gaps between starts that we see virtually all the time now when it comes to tomorrows breeding shed.
Q. And do you think this was more a problem in your day or today?
A. When the drugs started flowing the way they did in the mid to late 80's and early 90's, it was completely out of control. That was mainly due to the lack of even testing for these pop up drugs much less finding them. It took years for the testing to try and catch up and while it might never fully catch up, it is miles closer today than it was back then.
The other part of the problem back then was the allowance of breaking the clearly written rule of NO drug to be administered after lasix. I know I wrote about this in here. That day and that meeting at Timonium with the Stewards on this topic is a day I will never forget. That is because it was that meeting that first prompted me to consider planning an exit strategy to leave the game. Not one of my finest hours at the time but in hind sight, it might have been.
So I feel like the game is definitely better today than it was then in terms of drug use. Sure, some still exists but it is far less than it was in those years I mentioned.
Always a pleasure Easy.
Bute/banamine
According to the published records of this year's Belmont Stakes field, each horse received either bute or banamine at some point during the five days prior to the race. Some had specific diagnoses written next to their treatments (California Chrome received a dose of bute on June 5 for back pain, for example), while many just read “inflammation.”
Did some research on Banamine. Found this about 2014 Belmont Stakes. Interesting. Thx for detailed answer.
Last edited by Easy-Rider 66; 03-14-18 at 09:14 AM.
They make it sound like bute and banamine are the same.
That was never my experience.
and if you can't decide between 2 horses here is my angle....pick the one that has the white bridle they look prettiest in the winners pic! if no white the blackIm serious too !
Lol. Why not?and if you can't decide between 2 horses here is my angle....pick the one that has the white bridle they look prettiest in the winners pic! if no white the black
That does mean you are eliminating all leather bridles and only considering nylon.
But hey, if it works, that's all that matters.
hey str.. a link to a head shot of ruffian (if i did it right) ..remember you said once you were close up to her (fence, backstretch, mth.. could be wrong) and she had a take no prisoners look about her (my words.. forgot yours) ...do you see it in this picture or is it something you would only notice on the track ? think I see what you mean but curious your observation
https://goo.gl/images/j5TnJ4
Last edited by JBEX; 03-16-18 at 12:41 PM.
Greetings str. Generally speaking, without track bias, would you say that pace plays a bigger role on turf than on dirt?
There is a stand at Monmouth at the 5/8ths pole down the backside above the hedge that is still there. I was in that stand when I saw her.
What you see in the pic is a horse that is very smart and looks at you with dominance.
What she looked like in that race that day was the same eye saying I want to kill you !
Mike Singletary's eyes in that pic of him at middle linebacker come close but hers was more crazed than his if you can believe that.
Hers were literally on fire.
In your pic they are actually calm compared to what I saw.
I can still see them in my minds eye.
It was incredible.
Thanks JBEX. I always love remembering that moment.
It has to be one of the top 10 moments I ever spent on the backside.
Had to follow up on this .and if you can't decide between 2 horses here is my angle....pick the one that has the white bridle they look prettiest in the winners pic! if no white the black
I had a fan once who cashed a bet on one of my horses and afterwards told me he knew I was going to win today because I had on new shoes for the winners circle picture.
Worked for him so again, whatever works.
So have been practising trying to watch a race and predict a winner by the turn, by watching Tampa replays. It has been tough, and I have been finding Im overestimating frontrunners ability to finish, while not being able to predict deep closers. Here's a clear example of one where I thought the front runner 4 had it.
http://www.tampabaydowns.com/racing/...eo-and-replays
Feb 2nd 2018; Race 4
Hi Thunderground. Nice to hear from you.
I was speaking to dirt races .
I believe it almost always plays a role in the outcome, probably more than any other single thing.
When it comes to the turf, I think a really fast pace will almost always do its damage and set up the others but we have all seen closers win into really slow opening 1/2 miles as well.
Of course soft turf can be part of the timing picture but all things being equal, it happens often enough that we see closers close into a slow early pace that I do not think it is as vitally important an issue as it is with dirt.
Do you agree?
At 1:25 the rider, still well clear is tapping the horse on the right shoulder for more and nobody is around him. That right there tells you the rider feels the horse starting to run out of gas. He would have continued to sit if he did not feel that underneath him. That rider knew he was in trouble just past 1/2 way around the turn.
But prior to that , watch at the 30-40 second mark and you will see that the horse will not relax at all. The rider even moves the horse out away from the leader to try and settle the horse but to no avail.
The jocks only recourse was to go past the cheap inside speed and hope the horse relaxed on the lead. And while the horse did start to relax some, but not nearly enough, the wasted energy was too much.
Had that horse been more cooperative, the rider would have sat a length or less off, until the 3/8s pole, taken the right eye away from the leader, and been able to sit tight until they turned for home. Had the horse done that, it would have been a much different outcome.
This horse simply ran out of gas because it would not relax. And I can see that in that 30-40 second area. Of course, it took me years to see that stuff to the level that I do, not days or even weeks.
On a side note, I watched the 1st race that day thinking it was the 4th and was saying to myself, how does THIS front runner lose? Go watch the 1st and then re watch the 4th and try and see the difference of how relaxed the 1st race horse is , in comparison the the 4th race horse.
Try and compare the actual effort in both horses strides. And look for how extended the horse in the 4th race seems to look almost from the start. Like a wide receiver running for a catch and timing it to be in a certain spot ( horse in the 1st race)vs. a wide receiver running all out because he is pretty sure the ball has been thrown too far for him to get it.(horse in the 4th race.)
If you truly can, that is GREAT. Because you are trying to learn very subtle body language and very few customers can actually do that.
If you cannot, keep trying because, as said , this isn't something you learn in a week or two.
I applaud your effort. Keep it up!
Last edited by str; 03-17-18 at 11:35 AM.
Good morning STR, while we are on the subject of replays. If you can look at the 2nd race at Gulfstream Park, let me know what you think of the ride given by the place horse, no 9. The place horse, 9- Forlove was in great position turning for home, pulled even with the winner 5-Y'all. The 9 was ridden by an apprentice- Gutierrez getting 7lbs, the winner was ridden by hall of fame Castellano. Right after turning for home, Gutierrez seemed like he couldn't control his horse and ultimately came second. My question is do you think it is the rider or the horse that couldn't keep up with winner? This was a maiden race, the winner had 7 races of experience and 9 had just one race prior which they ran against other (5 was second and 9 was 4th by 3 lengths). Thanks in advance.
I see what you are totally saying now, thanks for this!!! I actually held the laptop (small screen) closer to my eyes to see, and could really see the subtle difference. I now see it might be worth it to watch replays on my desktop pc with the bigger screen.
And I applaud your effort in providing this thread for us!! Thanks again!!!
Last edited by cutchemist42; 03-17-18 at 02:36 PM.
Just watched it.
The 9 horse did not switch lead legs as it straightened away for home.( stayed on the left leg). As soon as the rider on the 9 hit the horse right handed, the horse veered in and he had to snatch the horse up to get the horse straightened out. As soon as he did that, the horse did switch to the outside leg leading, which it should have done on it's own, but if you notice the horse lugs in again and ends up behind the winner instead of clear of dirt spray. All that was the horse not the rider.
Was that horse going to beat the leader? Highly unlikely. The rider on the lead horse had it relaxed and sitting on ready all the way around the turn. At 55 seconds the rider on the winner moves his hands barely and he is 1/2 a length in front again in 2 strides.
The lack of experience probably caused the 9 to lug in somewhat. Look for that horse to NOT do that next time as they will probably change bits or practice that situation in the morning. If it does, it can quickly become a long term problem. They will also probably ride the horse left handed next time. I know that I would say to do that. By that I mean the rider will start with the stick it his left hand instead of what they typically do which is the right hand.
As for the apprentice, whoever that rider is, he/she looks good. That rider has chance for a nice career in front of them.
STR wish I had your eye for the horses. I could make some money in this game playing tournaments. I guess that's where decades of experience comes into play.
Last edited by Easy-Rider 66; 03-17-18 at 03:14 PM.
Thanks for your analysis. I don’t think that horse will beat the winner either. Just wanted to know the lugging in was due to the rider or horse. It’s all clear now that you said the problem with changing leads. Thanks again.
hey str..almost feel guilty asking another question as you've been quite busy in here of late..but here goes anyway
the winner of the rebel stakes at oaklawn today.. pletcher trained 380k yearling who was 2 for 2 coming in..
Jan 13
msw GP @6f ..4 calls below..
2-1*1-1*1-2*1-4.5 (he won by 4.5)
pace very fair according to brisnet
feb 15
allowance @ mile and 40 yards .. tampa bay
4-2*4-2*2-hd*1-2
pace about 4 lengths slow
I just find the versatility interesting..from being so close to the pace in the sprint and then sitting off the slow pace in the route..forgetting the fact he won today do you find that
an extra positive about this horse.. being able to do what he did at tampa after how he won his debut at GP ?
Last edited by JBEX; 03-17-18 at 08:29 PM.
Spring cleaning here, so trying to look at things in new ways and set a few new parameters. Just doing the old thing is boring. I'm thinking about focusing only on races that are set up for closers. Pick one or two from a card, and do so for a few cards. Often these races have the best value. And not seldom a longshot closer can follow a strong closer for some great added value. Is there a way to recognize those types, because a lot of closers are not closers at all, but just run in the back (the jribs)? Speed horses, almost by definition, seem to have less value, so I want to focus on races that set up for closers.
I'm basically looking at a way to maximize value, by preselecting those races and then run them through my program (based on projected form-of-day). Each pace scenario would be layered (if x, if y, if z, then a positive), so identifying those layers is the first step and it could be a big project to get it right, or it could also be a dead-end street. Only one way to find out.
The program can then identify tossouts, and the goal is to get a field down to four, and simply bet $8 superfectas (AB-AB-CD-CD with AB-CD-AB-CD).
Last edited by Thunderground; 03-18-18 at 04:13 AM.
also relating to this , I think this is an interesting path to take up to the kentucky derby..big maiden win and then foot off the gas a bit in an allowance race..be ready for the
race preceding the major derby prep rather than peak too soon..this is assuming of course you have something that
good to work with..believe "always dreaming" had a real easy one in his 2nd start of the 3yo season
Sir STR, I have a question about workouts. Although I don’t pay much attention to published workouts, I am curious on why some horse after a layoff, say 3 months, there is no published workouts or just one workout, then the horse is out for racing. What is the reason behind that??
Great to hear.
Try and use the bigger screen.
The bigger the screen the easier it will be to see the riders hands, the horse, etc.
I wish you did as well Easy.
I hate seemingly wasting it by not using it but it would take a lot of my time and I am knee deep in real estate in Wash, D.C. these days running my business ,helping my son learn and preparing him to eventually take over the business I have created.
If the time comes that I step back from it, I will have time on my hands and might take you up on that. I have always liked a challenge.
Thanks Easy.
Happy that you ask away JBEX. It is never a problem.
It is indeed an extra positive.
When I see a horse like that it tells me that the horse laid closer the 1st time probably for two reasons. A bit keyed up for it's first race and the horse was tons the best. That is usually what it is.
When I see the horse has the ability to sit off going long off that one sprint, it tells me that the horse is NOT a speed crazy type, has learned to relax, which was undoubtedly the theme from day one, and is probably of above average intelligence.
All this leads me to believe that Todd felt that this horse had a big chance to compete with the best. Time will tell but just the fact that Todd felt this way, tells me that this horse has stood out from way before that first race.
Certainly a horse to watch closely from now until the first Saturday in May.
Nice catch !
Please keep me posted.
Most if not all rules related to workouts state that a horse must show at least one published workout if the horse has not competed for 30 days or longer. And as much as the rule is trying to help the customer, it really doesn't.
There can be several scenarios as to why but a few of them are that the horse trained at a training center where a clocker is either not there or only there some of the time, but not every day.
Another scenario is that the horse works out and is misidentified by the clockers and the work goes down as another horse. In Md. when I was training, you did not have to identify each horse that worked before they did. I am pretty sure in N.Y. that you do. Probably other tracks as well. But if you do not, the clockers must either run down and ask the rider as they go back to the barn who the horse was, or if they pull up on the backside and do not walk by the clocker, the clocker will call the trainer on the phone and ask them who the horse was. And while the vast majority of the time, everyone simply tells them, the window of opportunity is left open to possibly mislead the clocker. I have to think that something like that happens at least sometimes. Ever seen a horse with two works in two or three days? In most of those cases, they were given a workout that another horse that looks the same worked.
Other times it is a horse that worked too slowly for maybe 5/8ths of a mile and by the time they picked it up to finish the clocker has missed the horse hitting the pole and catches the last 1/4 mile and maybe an 1/8th gallop out and puts down 3/8ths in 39 when the horse actually breezed much further.
To see the clockers try and monitor the entire mile track plus the chute when the gate is set up is amazing. There are usually two or maybe three clockers at a track. Sometimes only one. They can usually be seen with a watch in each hand and binoculars around their neck at all times. Plus trying to write down names and times for their records . It is very hectic to say the least.
Another reason is the horse that trains on the farm but just ships in for the work and leaves. Without a must identify rule in place, horses workout and the clockers look at one another and say, "who the hell was that"?
Also, some horses will work while it is still dark out and the clockers cannot see them. Pretty shady and dangerous as hell. I never liked that.
I tried to have that made into a rule that it was not allowed and a fine attached if caught but it was shot down by the other board members, mainly because , IMO, they were just a bunch of grumpy old men that resisted any change. Old farts !
Anyway, without knowing the exact circumstances it is hard to give you a solid answer but these are some of the reasons and all this is why I stress to know the trainer and trust the horse is fit or not but don't pay attention to the actual workouts. They will seemingly mislead more often than not.
Hope that helps Mr. G and T.
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