[mrginandtonic]

Sir STR, I was looking at tomorrow’s form at Santa Anita, trying to cap a few races and hoping to make a few bucks. I came across a horse in Race 2 and I couldn’t believe what I saw. It’s the 3-Demigoddess, she is a 4 yr old filly and yet she has 50 lifetime starts. She is trained by Charles Stutts. I think it’s the same Stutts that’s been around for a long time, not sure. Anyways, he is 0 for 33 in 2018. The form only goes back 12 starts which started January 1,2018. She has raced on average 3 times a month, sometimes she would race after 6 days and sometimes 10 days. That is a lot of races for such a short time. Her record is 50- 1-1-9. Other than breaking her maiden, she hasn’t won a race. I guess what I’m asking is at what point do you consider this animal abuse!! This just seem so f@ckin ridiculous to me. I know they use to race a lot more frequently than now, but 50 starts as a 4 yr old and we are only in mid-May. Your thoughts? This just really bothers me. Do they have regulations against these? I wish I know how to post that part of the form for you to look at.

[Thunderground]

I wish I know how to post that part of the form for you to look at.

Not the form, as such, but the race history where you click on each race: http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Res...istry=T&rbt=TB

[Thunderground]

Last time in the money was 3rd in a 56K AOC on 4/22/18, earning about 6K.

[mrginandtonic]

Not the form, as such, but the race history where you click on each race: http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Res...istry=T&rbt=TB

Thanks Thunderground for the link. Looks like she started her career at age 2 in late June, and ran 13 times in 2016 and 25 times in 2017 so far 13 times this year. Unbelievable!!

[str]

Sir STR, I was looking at tomorrow’s form at Santa Anita, trying to cap a few races and hoping to make a few bucks. I came across a horse in Race 2 and I couldn’t believe what I saw. It’s the 3-Demigoddess, she is a 4 yr old filly and yet she has 50 lifetime starts. She is trained by Charles Stutts. I think it’s the same Stutts that’s been around for a long time, not sure. Anyways, he is 0 for 33 in 2018. The form only goes back 12 starts which started January 1,2018. She has raced on average 3 times a month, sometimes she would race after 6 days and sometimes 10 days. That is a lot of races for such a short time. Her record is 50- 1-1-9. Other than breaking her maiden, she hasn’t won a race. I guess what I’m asking is at what point do you consider this animal abuse!! This just seem so f@ckin ridiculous to me. I know they use to race a lot more frequently than now, but 50 starts as a 4 yr old and we are only in mid-May. Your thoughts? This just really bothers me. Do they have regulations against these? I wish I know how to post that part of the form for you to look at.

I remember back when I trained that I would run into some jackass trainer like this idiot every now and then. Sadly, unless there is a complaint about the care in the barn or for the safety of others there isn't much you can do. If it's any consolation, if the horse had any real problems the trainer would not be able to get the horse over there that often and or, the state vet would not allow the horse to run.
Do know that in all probability, the state vet as well as plenty of people on the backside and some people in the secretary's office as well, are just as ticked off as you are and are keeping a very close eye on this moron. I do think the Stewards could step in and at least inquire as to why the trainer chooses to run so often. Let's hope they or a commissioner or somebody at least inquires about it.

Sorry Mr. G and T. This is not exactly representative of the way most people think on the backside, that's for sure.

[mrginandtonic]

I remember back when I trained that I would run into some jackass trainer like this idiot every now and then. Sadly, unless there is a complaint about the care in the barn or for the safety of others there isn't much you can do. If it's any consolation, if the horse had any real problems the trainer would not be able to get the horse over there that often and or, the state vet would not allow the horse to run.
Do know that in all probability, the state vet as well as plenty of people on the backside and some people in the secretary's office as well, are just as ticked off as you are and are keeping a very close eye on this moron. I do think the Stewards could step in and at least inquire as to why the trainer chooses to run so often. Let's hope they or a commissioner or somebody at least inquires about it.

Sorry Mr. G and T. This is not exactly representative of the way most people think on the backside, that's for sure.

I sure hope someone is keeping an eye on him. But what about the owner? Doesn't he have any input?? Or may be he just doesn't care as long as she is making money. And this stupid trainer probably only 2 horses in his stables and he is running both of them to death since he is 0 for 33 for the year so far. Wish we can revolt his license!!

[str]

I sure hope someone is keeping an eye on him. But what about the owner? Doesn't he have any input?? Or may be he just doesn't care as long as she is making money. And this stupid trainer probably only 2 horses in his stables and he is running both of them to death since he is 0 for 33 for the year so far. Wish we can revolt his license!!

The owner has plenty of say but apparently not saying it. Whole thing is dumb. Some trainers just don't deserve a license.

[mrginandtonic]

The owner has plenty of say but apparently not saying it. Whole thing is dumb. Some trainers just don't deserve a license.

I agree, these kind of trainers just simply don’t deserve it. This just really pissed me off.

On to a light note, Justify seems pretty tough to beat. Looks like all the professionals are picking him to win this and onto Belmont for that Triple Crown immortality. Your thoughts?

[str]

Looking at the Preakness it is very hard for me to shed any light on the race other than what everyone already knows. Justify is without question the most talented horse going in. The key to his race is the same key he had in the Derby. He needs to break . If he does, it looks to shape up with a speed or even maybe two speeds inside him if someone wants to send. That will be darn near a copy of the race we saw in Ky. His hope will be to sit 2nd or 3rd and allow others to set the early pace and start to make his run as they go into the far turn. He absolutely wants the lead as he turns for home. That would be the way they hope it unfolds. He could make the lead by himself as well. On paper, it should be one of those scenarios.
If things do not go as planned leaving the gate, nobody knows how he will react. Because of that, I will sit out betting the Preakness. He is currently 1-2. No money to be made there. And I feel like I would be betting on him to break poorly or have a problem physically if I chose another horse at a price.
Sorry to be so boring.Wish I could help more but the track is playing to speed/position and favorites have dominated the first seven races. It is a pass for me . Good luck with YOUR picks everyone.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Thx STR. Agree that it is a poor betting race. Taking the 4 in a contest. Maybe he can hold on for 2nd.

[JBEX]

hey str..

jerry bailey has said several times that you don't know for sure if a race has taken too much out of a horse till they hit the top of the stretch in their next outing (paraphrasing but something like that) ..so if going too fast early in the derby was to effect him it wouldn't necessarily be obvious going into the race ?

[mrginandtonic]

hey str..

jerry bailey has said several times that you don't know for sure if a race has taken too much out of a horse till they hit the top of the stretch in their next outing (paraphrasing but something like that) ..so if going too fast early in the derby was to effect him it wouldn't necessarily be obvious going into the race ?

That is exactly what I’m looking at. I think that the fact that the final was 2:04 tells me that his is finally getting tired. Although he won by two, it just meant to me that the other runners are not that good. That’s precisely why I’m leaning on the 4-Diamond King, second off a layoff and switch to Hall of Fame jockey.

Since the beginning, he has run a 104, 101, 107, 103 Beyer speed figure. That is very impressive in such a short time. I don't remember any horse in the past that has done that especially as a 3yr old. I think the Preakness winner won't need triple digit Beyer to win.

Anyways, that's my thoughts. GL all.

[JBEX]

That is exactly what I’m looking at. I think that the fact that the final was 2:04 tells me that his is finally getting tired. Although he won by two, it just meant to me that the other runners are not that good. That’s precisely why I’m leaning on the 4-Diamond King, second off a layoff and switch to Hall of Fame jockey.

Since the beginning, he has run a 104, 101, 107, 103 Beyer speed figure. That is very impressive in such a short time. I don't remember any horse in the past that has done that especially as a 3yr old. I think the Preakness winner won't need triple digit Beyer to win.

Anyways, that's my thoughts. GL all.

not to mention his 5th race in 91 days and just accomplishing a feat that hadn't been pulled off in 136 years..not a bad case overall to take a stab against

[mrginandtonic]

not to mention his 5th race in 91 days and just accomplishing a feat that hadn't been pulled off in 136 years..not a bad case overall to take a stab against

Unless he is a super horse which he definitely can be. But today, I will play against him. But if he wins today, I don’t see any reason that he will not be the next Triple Crown winner.

[JBEX]

Unless he is a super horse which he definitely can be. But today, I will play against him. But if he wins today, I don’t see any reason that he will not be the next Triple Crown winner.

don't think it's going to be an easy race for justify..your horse hits solid pace figures in sprints and for sure he's going aggressive to the front (nothing to lose) ..can't see mikey letting him get to far away which translates to a fast pace..possible mike will be aggressive from the beginning anticipating this..I could see sporting chance sitting off these two and be set up nicely

[mrginandtonic]

don't think it's going to be an easy race for justify..your horse hits solid pace figures in sprints and for sure he's going aggressive to the front (nothing to lose) ..can't see mikey letting him get to far away which translates to a fast pace..possible mike will be aggressive from the beginning anticipating this..I could see sporting chance sitting off these two and be set up nicely

I actually think your horse is going to the front with Justify. I think his job is the rabbit, setting up for Lukas’ other horse. I don’t think my horse will go to the front and I hope not. He runs better just sitting off.

[str]

hey str..

jerry bailey has said several times that you don't know for sure if a race has taken too much out of a horse till they hit the top of the stretch in their next outing (paraphrasing but something like that) ..so if going too fast early in the derby was to effect him it wouldn't necessarily be obvious going into the race ?

Well, you never know for sure but... there are plenty of subtle signs that the trainer will be looking for the next day and then each day after that especially with a race like this. Jerry would not see that stuff. The trainer would.
I do not know if any of those signs showed up or not. And because of everything at stake, they are not signs of possible injury, they would be signs of the last effort possibly taking too much out of the horse. No trainer with any sense will tell you any of that.
I did get to see him gallop a mile and a half on Wednesday on film from start to finish and from everything I saw, Justify is fine. He did all the little things you love to see a horse do. If the last race has hit him in the butt, we will find out turning for home, if not sooner, but he showed no indication of that on Wednesday when he trained.
But to be fair, I have seen them show no indication and not run their race before.

[str]

Well, you never know for sure but... there are plenty of subtle signs that the trainer will be looking for the next day and then each day after that especially with a race like this. Jerry would not see that stuff. The trainer would.
I do not know if any of those signs showed up or not. And because of everything at stake, they are not signs of possible injury, they would be signs of the last effort possibly taking too much out of the horse. No trainer with any sense will tell you any of that.
I did get to see him gallop a mile and a half on Wednesday on film from start to finish and from everything I saw, Justify is fine. He did all the little things you love to see a horse do. If the last race has hit him in the butt, we will find out turning for home, if not sooner, but he showed no indication of that on Wednesday when he trained.
But to be fair, I have seen them show no indication and not run their race before.

I just added the last sentence to this if anyone read it prior to that.

[JBEX]

I I feel there's some precedent for a reaction here for the reasons mentioned (fast early pace and heavy activity approaching derby)..we will see in about an hour from now..I'm sure you would agree there's nothing that replicates the stressors of a race than the race itself

[str]

I I feel there's some precedent for a reaction here for the reasons mentioned (fast early pace and heavy activity approaching derby)..we will see in about an hour from now..I'm sure you would agree there's nothing that replicates the stressors of a race than the race itself

No doubt and if indeed he is not his best, he will certainly have a chance to lose. My problem was that I looked at the race three different times trying to think just that and came up with three different horses. Lol. So I decided that MY best choice was no choice at all. I just cannot put a scenario together enough to take a stand with a certain horse. I do understand your logic and it's as good or better than any of mine was when I tried to beat him.
Good luck !

[JBEX]

No doubt and if indeed he is not his best, he will certainly have a chance to lose. My problem was that I looked at the race three different times trying to think just that and came up with three different horses. Lol. So I decided that MY best choice was no choice at all. I just cannot put a scenario together enough to take a stand with a certain horse. I do understand your logic and it's as good or better than any of mine was when I tried to beat him.
Good luck !

thanks str

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hey STR: A question on the age of a pony and the amount of Lifetime starts they have? How much negative weight would you put into a 12 year old with 89 career lifetime starts? Today at Mountaineer in the 8th race "I am the King" scored at 11/1. I liked a lot of things about him, but quickly threw him out because of his age. Big mistake costing me $250 in a contest. Thx in advance.

[MadTiger]

Hey STR: A question on the age of a pony and the amount of Lifetime starts they have? How much negative weight would you put into a 12 year old with 89 career lifetime starts? Today at Mountaineer in the 8th race "I am the King" scored at 11/1. I liked a lot of things about him, but quickly threw him out because of his age. Big mistake costing me $250 in a contest. Thx in advance.

"Age Ain't Nothing But a Number"--Aaliyah and str

[Easy-Rider 66]

"Age Ain't Nothing But a Number"--Aaliyah and str

In the case of "I am the King" TRUTH. LOL.

[JBEX]

Hey STR: A question on the age of a pony and the amount of Lifetime starts they have? How much negative weight would you put into a 12 year old with 89 career lifetime starts? Today at Mountaineer in the 8th race "I am the King" scored at 11/1. I liked a lot of things about him, but quickly threw him out because of his age. Big mistake costing me $250 in a contest. Thx in advance.

hey easy ..I hope you don't mind me giving an opinion on this..as an 11yo the horse (appropriately enough) had 11 starts with 3 wins and 4 seconds..his last two starts of the year were wins in nov and dec..his last 6 starts were 3 wins and 2 seconds and the only one not in the money was an open claimer
while the others were all conditioned claimers..I wouldn't have let it bother me in his first start as a 12yo this year..if you're that effective as an 11yo whats another year gonna set you back

[Easy-Rider 66]

hey easy ..I hope you don't mind me giving an opinion on this..as an 11yo the horse (appropriately enough) had 11 starts with 3 wins and 4 seconds..his last two starts of the year were wins in nov and dec..his last 6 starts were 3 wins and 2 seconds and the only one not in the money was an open claimer
while the others were all conditioned claimers..I wouldn't have let it bother me in his first start as a 12yo this year..if you're that effective as an 11yo whats another year gonna set you back

Yeah Thx JBEX. Liked what you said and his pace ratings last couple of races as well. It was a real bad decision by me to toss him in retrospect. In the contest I ended up taking the #2 horse who had second best pace figures last race. He was a 4 year old with 17 career starts and scored his last race. Age Bias I guess.

[str]

Hey STR: A question on the age of a pony and the amount of Lifetime starts they have? How much negative weight would you put into a 12 year old with 89 career lifetime starts? Today at Mountaineer in the 8th race "I am the King" scored at 11/1. I liked a lot of things about him, but quickly threw him out because of his age. Big mistake costing me $250 in a contest. Thx in advance.

Just read JBEX's comments and Mad Tigers as well. They are right. Just like people, some 80 year olds act 50 and some 50 year olds act 80. It is an individual thing.
My only concern would have been 1st off the lay of 6 months but my guess is he has done well with that aspect in the past. By that age, they are so professional that the 1st off the lay would have been my biggest concern.
When the time does come for the old guy to lose more steps, it will be pretty obvious . He will need to run against cheaper and cheaper until it's over. It won't be the will to win it will be that he is just too slow. That might not happen for another year or two. Nobody knows for sure.
Age bias. LOL. Pretty funny.

[JBEX]

hey str


chad brown is one of the best imo at getting horses to win or run well in their turf debuts around two turns.. of course outside of maybe todd nobody has better stock to work with.. i'm guessing going into these races he has varying opinions of their chances to run well first out.. ultimately if they don't not the end of the world anyway ..but the question is do you think he'll train a horse he feels has a lesser chance to get it done the same as he'd train a horse he feels has a better chance to get it done first out ?

[JBEX]

hey str


chad brown is one of the best imo at getting horses to win or run well in their turf debuts around two turns.. of course outside of maybe todd nobody has better stock to work with.. i'm guessing going into these races he has varying opinions of their chances to run well first out.. ultimately if they don't not the end of the world anyway ..but the question is do you think he'll train a horse he feels has a lesser chance to get it done the same as he'd train a horse he feels has a better chance to get it done first out ?

i guess mott,mcgaughey and clement are up there too as runner-ups with turf horses ..maybe graham motion also
but he's not a regular on the circuit

[str]

hey str


chad brown is one of the best imo at getting horses to win or run well in their turf debuts around two turns.. of course outside of maybe todd nobody has better stock to work with.. i'm guessing going into these races he has varying opinions of their chances to run well first out.. ultimately if they don't not the end of the world anyway ..but the question is do you think he'll train a horse he feels has a lesser chance to get it done the same as he'd train a horse he feels has a better chance to get it done first out ?

Q. but the question is do you think he'll train a horse he feels has a lesser chance to get it done the same as he'd train a horse he feels has a better chance to get it done first out ?


A. It totally depends on each individual horse. He would like to follow a winning pattern for every horse. One that he has used time and time again. But... often times a particular horse just cannot keep up with one set pattern due to any number of reasons. He probably more often than not will feel a horse cannot win 1st time in your situation because of an interruption in that pattern. Also, and I know I keep saying this but every horse is indeed just a little different, just like people. Sometimes it takes building up to a race like you described once to learn what you can do differently to help get the horse more prepared the next time.
With all that said, if a horse has shown that it can win in that situation, moving forward, it can repeat that success each year first out typically. If it did not win 1st time out, you have to be careful the 2nd time because he will be trying that much harder and doing something a little different or not having an unexpected interruption like he had to deal with the 1st time. But if the horse loses a 2nd year in a row 1st time off time, that horse might just be a horse that cannot do it . I know it's not 1st time ever but it is 1st time with the winter off.
Kind of took the question and expanded it some but thought you might want that answer as well.
Hope all that makes sense.

[str]

i guess mott,mcgaughey and clement are up there too as runner-ups with turf horses ..maybe graham motion also
but he's not a regular on the circuit

There are a lot of talented trainers up there that can have one ready 1st time turf long. It mostly depends on the stock and secondly it depends on if the trainer is looking to have them THAT cranked up right off the bat which most will when they are regular turf trainers like the group you mentioned. But if the trainer is more of a dirt trainer with a nice grass horse, and that trainer typically does not want to pressure his or her horses very early, they can be expected to ease their horse into it's 1st race. I guess it's the old habits die hard saying when it comes to that. Of course, sometimes the horse that loves 1st off the lay will overcome that training approach and win anyway.
I have probably confused the heck out of all this by now haven't I. Sorry if I have but it all lends to the question and where I took that question. Might need to read it a couple of times to follow all the jumping around.
Follow up if I made a mess out of something.

[JBEX]

I think the question i asked was picking things apart too much.. the important thing is (amongst these guys) some will try harder then others to have one ready first out..with the level of horse we're talking about and the expectations for them can understand wanting to ease into it a bit rather than cranking them up all the way first out.. as you said they are all individuals even with the fancy pedigrees.. maybe an above average effort first out rather than an all out win or close 2nd will be better for the horse anyway as they don't exert themselves too much right from the start...the owners of these types probably more concerned about the horse developing into something down the road more anyway

thanks str

[JBEX]

hey str

sure I've asked you something similar to this along the way but like your opinion again on this situation

horse debuts @ belmont 6f turf
sb mdn clm 40k on 5/6

running line (rounded off lengths)

6-4/8-6/10-10/11-12 11 horse field

22.4/22.4/23 108.3
believe it or not that's 3 seconds off the track (probably world) record

back today to try a mile on the widener at the same level..a couple of solid 4f breezes in between ..really don't think she can win but possible underneath..do you think that debut could be useful as a route prep ? the fact she was within 6 lengths at the pace call and in general just being towards the back of pack and only surrendering about 2 lengths per call .. sprinkle in some long gallops along with those intermediate works ? I'm playing trainer here ha ha

[str]

hey str

sure I've asked you something similar to this along the way but like your opinion again on this situation

horse debuts @ belmont 6f turf
sb mdn clm 40k on 5/6

running line (rounded off lengths)

6-4/8-6/10-10/11-12 11 horse field

22.4/22.4/23 108.3
believe it or not that's 3 seconds off the track (probably world) record

back today to try a mile on the widener at the same level..a couple of solid 4f breezes in between ..really don't think she can win but possible underneath..do you think that debut could be useful as a route prep ? the fact she was within 6 lengths at the pace call and in general just being towards the back of pack and only surrendering about 2 lengths per call .. sprinkle in some long gallops along with those intermediate works ? I'm playing trainer here ha ha

Q. do you think that debut could be useful as a route prep ?

A. Absolutly

Q. the fact she was within 6 lengths at the pace call and in general just being towards the back of pack and only surrendering about 2 lengths per call

A. Because of that I feel she will be a better , smarter horse today.


Q. sprinkle in some long gallops along with those intermediate works ?


A. Probably spot on with that.


Q. I'm playing trainer here ha ha

A. Join the club.

My % has gone waaay up since I started training over the internet. Already won a triple crown and going for number two next Saturday.Lol.

[jtoler]

is justify going to win the triple crown? I already know the answer just seeing what you know.