Originally Posted by
str
A very interesting form to say the least. One has to assume that the works are correct. Who knows for sure. But that said, all in all, they make sense and the horse is more than likely fit enough. I get the impression from the form that the horse might lag back early. If so, that will make it harder to win I would assume. If it lays closer, might run evenly late??
Because of all the guess work involved, if I eliminate all that, I find myself questioning betting a horse that has not run in 1 1/2 years. Most of these types would need a race, but grass is less demanding than dirt, so it's almost like a point vs. counter point thought process.
And while if bet on and bet down, you feel more confident, you also lose value. Another point counter point.
If I was betting, and this is just me, this is the type of race that unless I could land solidly on another horse ( and I did not try to in this race), I would probably play exotics, pick 3's or whatever and use this horse along with one or more others if necessary. That way, I'm covered but not all in. If I went all in, I can hear myself now, mocking myself after the horse runs a decent race but I lose. It takes me to a rule I almost always use which is to not play horses off over a year unless the trainer is great at that. Or, if I'm at the track that day, I pass the race but pay full attention to the horse from being saddled, to pulling up afterwards and take notes for the future. The ability on turf showed. Now it's just a matter if the horse can reach that plateau again. If sound, I would think yes. Also wondering if I would maybe claim the horse today? I would at least consider it and go through the motions in case I decided yes at the last minute.
Also, not sure where they start 7 1/2F on the turf at Delaware. They never ran that distance in my time there. I guess they break with a short run to the clubhouse turn?
One other thing I think about is they will be eligible for 16K starters for a year. Hmmm. Does that factor into the price they are running for? I would think yes.
Pretty cool question about this one, with multiple things of interest. Will be fun to watch this one and the next few races going further.
Very intriguing situation JBEX.