[Believe_EMT]

nothing today

78-76
2.86

[Believe_EMT]

nyi 125
nyr +110
buf +115
nj +160
sj +115

[eaglesfan371]

nyi 125
nyr +110
buf +115
nj +160
sj +115

Do you believe these +EV opportunities are set by the book or instances where a member of the public bet the favorite, moving the line to +EV. I would guess this market, a max bet of couple hundred would move the line either side.

Do you use a model? If so, how much weight do you put on recent vs season success? Do you give much weight to how often a team actually has scored first or simply just their strength / season overall?

[Believe_EMT]

clb +125
van 111

80-79
1.83

[Believe_EMT]

Do you believe these +EV opportunities are set by the book or instances where a member of the public bet the favorite, moving the line to +EV. I would guess this market, a max bet of couple hundred would move the line either side.
Do you use a model? If so, how much weight do you put on recent vs season success? Do you give much weight to how often a team actually has scored first or simply just their strength / season overall?

i believe it is flawed because the game favorite is also favored to score first. it should almost be treated as an independent event. (notwithstanding all the garbage we hear about team scores 1st wins 67% of the time). somewhat supported by collected data over the L257 games where favorites are 132-125 in the 1st goal scoring department. a mendoza line of sorts is forming right around the 140 mark. teams at 145 or less are 55-68, over that number they are 77-57. time will tell if that continues.

i have yet to account for trade deadline and playoff push. going to continue with current formula and see where it lands. if it takes a significant nosedive, clearly those will be factors i either account for next year or just stop playing a week before deadline.

was thinking the other day that i need to start accounting for current form. no more clear demonstration than pit losing 6 straight games and returning home to face ott. 2 goals in first 3 minutes. don't think motivation is something that can be quantified.

having typed all of that, this is getting dangerously close to actual work. which is something i want to avoid. putting all of the extra work might help maximize profits, but to what degree? time might be best spent saying:

1. lines are flawed because favorite is always favored to score first
2. over L257 this only happened 51% of the time
3. how to maximize output while minimizing input

[Believe_EMT]

gotta say, this first one, i would have played even if the sabres were favored (math supports them up to like -127). this team, for some reason, plays pens tough, as evidenced by their 4-1 record L5 vs Pit. although that last one was more of a stolen game by hutton as pens ended up out shooting 43-26. but those games, seems like buf starts the game 5 minutes before pit does. hoping that changes tonight, points getting pretty precious down the stretch.

buf +125 (pens 31% 1st G-A)
nyr +105 (nyr 56% G-H, wsh 44% G-A and 2nd of B2B)
phi 125 (this b2b makes me nervous, but phi 69% G-A)
ott +120 (ott 47%, nyi 42%)
la +120 (both teams 53% in this situation)
sj +110 (sj 61%, min 42%)

81-80
2.08

[Believe_EMT]

spot on analysis, per usual. pens opened up the game oushooting buf 10-0. complete opposite of the first 2 games this year. pens rounding into playoff shape?

brutal night, those favorites really lit up the 1st goal, 7-2. knocked us negative for the season

nj +130
ana +120


82-85
2.12

[Believe_EMT]

nyi 118
nsh +120
la +110
sj 137
edm 125

84-85
.38

[Believe_EMT]

absolutely hate backing the home team...the worst

pit 137
veg 110
chi +110
ana +110
sj +120
van 133

87-87
1.48

[Believe_EMT]

st l 125
win 125

91-89
3.42

[Believe_EMT]

i never posted yesterday? seems accurate. it was a 2-3 night.

chi 133
edm 120
la 137

92-90
3.22

overall unofficial record based on my stupidity of not posting everyday
110-98

[Believe_EMT]

this sucks

thanks a lot china