Originally Posted by
Dark Horse
I gave an extreme example to show how sensitive Kelly is.
If you allow me to use live betting as example, a difference between 81% and 75% may be as little as one first down (or less). I've seen plenty of games with a >80% winning expectation, late in the game, swing the other way. Far too common to risk 23% of BR on. And I don't see why live games, and betting, would bend the rules of math. One late hit in baseball, one first down in football, and that 6% (near the extremes) is gone like a snowball in hell. Of course, the math sect is not bothered by such realities. If Kelly says 23%, that's all there is to it.
I tried to point out the value of parlays, as often being superior to Kelly bet sizing (both in terms of payout and exposure), and illustrate it with a personal example, but even the simplest form of out-of-the-box thinking would draw out the sect with their predictable expressions of misplaced arrogance and superiority. These guys may know math well. But they do not know how to think. To them that is a foreign concept that should be tanked. And they conveniently forget that the math they use was discovered for them by those who did think. They take great pleasure in chasing people away from here, most recently longtime posters Flying Dutchman and Wrecktangle (who has since returned sporadically). That is their heritage; the one thing they take pride in. Hey, to each their own...