I thought about that as well, Wrecktangle, but it's easier said than done. The romantic in me, dreaming of another Computer Group, is gradually making way for a more pragmatic idealist.
Ronnie, the first paragraph certainly sounds wrong, doesn't it? That was the whole point. I wanted to know if others were on that wavelength, which would have been exciting. (I already corrected the second paragraph).
This is not about me, but since people seem to misunderstand, I'll add this. I moved away from the pack about two years ago. I only had winning years to show for, but I felt that the market was getting sharper and my simple edge was gradually disappearing. So I basically started from scratch. People who are excel-lent at math may be able to postpone this realization, but since they're all following the same path and their numbers are rapidly increasing, the inevitable conclusion is that their way will ultimately come to a crashing halt; not unlike LA traffic.
My transformation to a completely different way is not completed. Initially I had no guarantee that it would work, but I now know that it will. It was, ironically, a serious study of the stock market that triggered the process. I understand why the math people here would criticize me for not fluently speaking their language. To me it's just another language, and if I learned to speak it fluently (again), I would only end up as a micro-manager in sports betting, frantically exploring minute little advantages. That's not what I'm after. I'm after much bigger, completely unfair advantages. And if these occur less frequently, which they do, that frees up my time. Lifestyle over way of life.
The initial point I was trying to make is that the lofty Kelly 'ideal' goes hand-in-hand with parlays. After all, if you're able to precisely determine your winning expectation, you should also know when to bet parlays, and
truly maximize profit. As obvious as this is, it is rarely, if ever, discussed here. Kelly is a simple concept (I've posted my own fractional Kelly layout in the past, so no point going into that again), but Kelly PLUS parlays is something far more exciting; a topic I definitely will seek to improve my understanding of. I've seen Ganch's formula on this subject, but it's only an opening statement (to me). I would need about 100 or 200 pages of real life examples to bring it to life. That's the book I want for Xmas.