[azimm11]

I'm having a tough time solving a problem relating to betting.
I have come up with my own personal NBA spread on games and am comparing to the actual bookmaker spread. I've gone through converting the spread into a moneyline/implied probability in order to get an idea of the % edge. From here, I'm unsure about the optimal betting stake (want to use Kelly).

For example:
MY CALCULATED SPREAD = -10.5
BOOKMAKER SPREAD = -8
MY CALCULATED IMPLIED PROB = 89.37%
BOOKMAKER IMPLIED PROB = 78.35%
PERCENT DIFFERENCE = 11.02%

What is the optimal stake amount in this situation? Or how would you get to it? Appreciate advice you will share!

[turbobets]

Convert your implied probabilities into moneylines and punch them here: kelly calculator

[azimm11]

Convert your implied probabilities into moneylines and punch them here: kelly calculator

If the implied probability I have is for -10.5 and I will be betting -8 (bookmaker line) - wouldn’t I need to solve for the advantage between those two spread #s?

[u21c3f6]

If the implied probability I have is for -10.5 and I will be betting -8 (bookmaker line) - wouldn’t I need to solve for the advantage between those two spread #s?

No. Just plug in the odds you will be betting and your probability estimate (89.37). However let me suggest that you not bet anywhere near full Kelly on this.

Joe.