[V_Rod]

Hey Guys - Okay I am not a gambler but have recently become interested in sports wagering, and let me explain why. There are "evidently" cappers out there who boast an average of like 70% over the season. Just for example, one guy I am thinking of - his program costs like $1,000 for all NCAA & NFL picks thru the rest of the season. So lets say I jump in now, and have $1,000 seed money. Lets also say he only averages 60% for the rest of the season. Because we don't know what he'll do each weekend, and to make the math easy we'll call it 60% each weekend.

If I were 100% faithful to this model, and assuming he didn't totally bomb out on any one weekend, I am calculating I would have a little over $5,000 by football seasons end.

Now, I know from experience that life does not always work out as neatly as my excel spreadsheets do, so I am asking you guys who know alot more about this to tell me what the risks or faults are in this line of thinking.

Thanks!

[Squirrel]

Plenty wrong with that - I doubt he hits anywhere close to 70% long term on sports with a spread, unless he's backing -600 MLs risking $600 to win every $100. If he plays ATS and you hit the exact point to break even long term (52.x% I do believe) then you still lose money because of your subscription fee.

Touts just aren't worth the money - they aint good at capping, all their good at is marketing.

[JOHON8]

Plenty wrong with that - I doubt he hits anywhere close to 70% long term on sports with a spread, unless he's backing -600 MLs risking $600 to win every $100. If he plays ATS and you hit the exact point to break even long term (52.x% I do believe) then you still lose money because of your subscription fee.

Touts just aren't worth the money - they aint good at capping, all their good at is marketing.

Exactly.

Otherwise they would be capping for a living instead of begging for people to pay for their picks.

[V_Rod]

Well, it's true I'd be, with all games combined, risking $1,000 to make $200 each time but if that happened every time I'd be set. Would it make any difference who it was? I mean he looks legit - Can I say who it is?

[jpowderly]

Well, it's true I'd be, with all games combined, risking $1,000 to make $200 each time but if that happened every time I'd be set. Would it make any difference who it was? I mean he looks legit - Can I say who it is?

Do not say keep it to yourself. Good luck ,you will need it.

[Squirrel]

You say you are new to sports betting and thats why the toutspeak appeals to you, you are the kind of person they prey on ... anyone who's been doing this stuff for a period of time wouldnt fall for their marketing talk.

[jds07v]

There is variance within a season, month, week ect. Anybody who bets will go through hot or cold streaks. I would suggest betting a smaller amount so that one cold streak does not clean you out. I would not suggest buying a subscription package, just look on the service plays forum if you dont know how to find an edge by yourself.

It is really easy to lose your ass in this business. You must do your homework and be patient. If you are down for the day, don't add plays just to try to get you back up to even or +. I never add plays, because if I didn't like it earlier in the day, why should a small winning or losing streak change my mind? Stick to your unit size and if you are just starting out, stick to teams, conferences, divisions that you know really well.

There are something like 300+ college basketball teams. If you know a conference really well (especially a small conference) you can clean up in CBB. Good luck

[Peep]

Good idea to get some personal experience.

I would recommend you do it with small amounts.

That is how most of us here learned.

"The man with money meets the man with experience. The man with experience gets the money, the man with money gets the experience"

Pretty well sums up most of our experiences with touts.

[V_Rod]

Well, I was hoping you guys would tell me something like "Hell yeah it works, we're all filthy rich, welcome to the club..." However I find the responses you all gave eminently more credible.

To be honest, while I am nuts about football, I couldn't care less about any other sports - not that I couldn't learn to enjoy them like with the added component of competitive wagering, but let me just say why I am here. Well, I don't want to breach any etiquette, but basically I would like to learn if - Given the proper amount of time, study, patience, and work - I would like to turn a 2 into into an 8, or in other words, I would like to achieve (what is that???) a 400% increase.

Everybody needs a goal and that's mine. I really don't know how possible, or probable that is (my gut feeling is that is probably a lofty goal).

I have seen numerous books on Amazon that claim to teach the skills of sports wagering - You guys know of any good ones I could pick up in addition to reading through the forum?

Alright, I really hope I have not breached etiquette.

[Joe Dogs]

Weighing the odds in sports Betting---King Yao

Sharp sports betting---Stanford Wong

[Peregrine Stoop]

Fixed Odds Sportsbetting--Buchdahl

[pedro803]

V_Rod you didn't put a time constraint on turning that 2 into an 8 -- so yes with proper money management and some acquired capping skills I think you could eventually turn the 2 into an 8, the question is how long will it take? And of course the more immediate question for new guys like me (and you I suppose) is to learn how to not turn the 2 into a 1 or yikes even a 0!

There are threads here addressing the question of how much growth can reasonably be expected, maybe do a forum search to see some extensive comments -- just remember opinions on that sort of thing vary wildly so don't get too downtrodden when somebody says it is just a grind to earn the equivalent to minimum wage for the time you put in doing this, and don't get too exuberant when you see somebody write that we could all be millionaires in a week or two -- the truth is somewhere in between, and anything worth having is worth working for!

Remember, there are plenty, plenty punters who lose so for most the growth rate question is a no - win proposition, so from one point of view we should consider ourselves to be doing well if we are staying in the game without blowing up bankroll after bankroll. I like what the poster UVA3021 has said about a possible winning strategy whereby you try to stay in the game with a multitude of grind it out kind of plays while also hitting the occasional longshot for bigger payoffs.

[Wrecktangle]

V_Rod: don't listen to these guys.

There is a subculture of rich, lazy, dope-snorting, porn-queen humping, neer-do-wells who bet tout's picks and do nothing else. Plus to top it off, the bookies welcome these model citizens with open arms and allow them to raid their establishments of everything, and give them incentives to post up to boot.

Send your money to: www.sportspickswillmakeyoufilthyrich.com and they'll send you some coupons for a bag of dope to start you on your way.