[jojo85]

Say you have a line of -270 on the favorite and +243 on the dog, then what would be the right calculation to convert this into a no vig line?

Any help is much appreciated!

[sharpcat]

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/handicappe...rcentages.html

[Rich Boy]

28.5% Dog
71.4% Fave

[LT Profits]

-270 = 270/370 = 72.97%
+243 = 100/343 = 29.15%

Overround = 72.97 + 29.15 = 102.12%

SO....
72.97/102.12 = 71.45% = -250.3
29.15/102.12 = 28.55% = +250.3

No Vig = +/-250.3

[SolidDala]

I need to win more than 73% to make a profit on the fav so what does the no-vig do more then show the implied probability for each outcome to occur... I mean do I need this when making bets

[jojo85]

cheers guys!

[dogman]

Quickest way- use the arb calculator bet #1 enter $100
line# 1 enter underdog line
line# 2 enter favotite

bet 2 will give you the no vig line


Got this from a Ricky Steve post

[Professor1215]

-270 = 270/370 = 72.97%
+243 = 100/343 = 29.15%

Overround = 72.97 + 29.15 = 102.12%

SO....
72.97/102.12 = 71.45% = -250.3
29.15/102.12 = 28.55% = +250.3

No Vig = +/-250.3

How do you get the 71.45% converted to the -250.3?

[Professor1215]

Also, is this proving that the vigorish is 2.12% for this specific bet?

[FourLengthsClear]

How do you get the 71.45% converted to the -250.3?

71.45 divided by 28.55 (i.e. 100-71.45)

Also, is this proving that the vigorish is 2.12% for this specific bet?

Yes

[Professor1215]

In a previous thread a guy used an example of a -270 favorite and a +243 under.

We determined that the non-vig line was -250.3

During the last few hours I have learned how to calculate this, but I still do not understand how the concept can be used to benefit me.

If the line is listed at -270 and the non-vig line is -250, does that mean the majority of the action is on the favorite? If it does, how should you react?

IF not, what exactly does it mean....

Please clarify.

[suicidekings]

The market line = The No-Vig line + the juice.

The No-Vig line is representative of the probability of an outcome occurring, just in a different format. A No-Vig of +/-200 implies that the market believes the favourite has a 0.667 probability of winning, etc.

[MadTiger]

It could imply that more action is on the favorite, but not necessarily. In some cases, BOTH sides of the proposition (or all three sides in soccer events, etc.) could be juiced heavily and equally.

If they are charging you for a 66.7% probability, you should only be betting if you determine the true probable outcome of the situation to be more than 66.7%; specifically, more than the converted market line. Which only makes sense.

[Pokerjoe]

Here's the proper, and simpler, way to fig the no-vig line: it's somewhere between the broad market's best prices on a game.

If the best fave price on the broad, open market is, say, Pinny -125 and the best dog price on the broad, open market maybe is Greek +122, the no-vig line is between -125 and +122.

Using the broad market best-price line to set the parameters is more accurate than using any single book's line.
But trying to guess where the line is, within those parameters, is pointless. If the market could determine the point more precisely, the price gap would close to that point.

Converting US-style moneyline prices to win chance expressions is just algebra.

[Pokerjoe]

But, imo, the dog price is generally going to be much, much closer to the fair line than the fave price.

Look at the betting percentages. If most players are going to be betting the fave, then you would want to put the juice on the fave, up to the point (but not surpassing it) at which betting the dog becomes +EV.

If you're a bookie and you know a line should be -125, you should offer your customers -135/+125, if your customers are going to favor backing the fave.

And if that's what bookies should do (and in fact is what they commonly do), then you need to account for that when interpreting the lines.

[FourLengthsClear]

But, imo, the dog price is generally going to be much, much closer to the fair line than the fave price.

Look at the betting percentages. If most players are going to be betting the fave, then you would want to put the juice on the fave, up to the point (but not surpassing it) at which betting the dog becomes +EV.

If you're a bookie and you know a line should be -125, you should offer your customers -135/+125, if your customers are going to favor backing the fave.

And if that's what bookies should do (and in fact is what they commonly do), then you need to account for that when interpreting the lines.

The caveat to this approach is that you have to exclude books (e.g. Bodog) that shade their lines. These are not part of the 'real' market if you can't get a real bet down on them.

[Pokerjoe]

The caveat to this approach is that you have to exclude books (e.g. Bodog) that shade their lines. These are not part of the 'real' market if you can't get a real bet down on them.

That's what I meant by broad, open market. SIA, Bodog, your local, etc, aren't part of that. They don't serve a broad set of bettors, and aren't open at all to many, most especially, to winners. Books that cripple-limit or flat out boot don't end up with lines as polished as those who take all comers.

But you can use the broad market to make a judgment with which to beat such books. In fact, that's how you use it.

[CHUBNUT]

Far too much time is spent trying to find what is only an opinion in the first place, Pokerjoe's way is the fastest if you really need it but fourlenthsclear is right about what books you use. There are odds sites that let you choose which books odds you want to see so thats the best approach. Different sports have reasons for where the vig might be and books will have different reasons for their choice, in soccer Ladbrokes and william hill 12X markets have nothing to do with their asian markets as one is to geared specifically to their betting shop clientel and the other their online clientel. I wonder how many more people would be successful in their betting if they put in as much time in their selection as they do in their quest for exactness of price and where the vig is.

[statictheory]

But, imo, the dog price is generally going to be much, much closer to the fair line than the fave price.

Look at the betting percentages. If most players are going to be betting the fave, then you would want to put the juice on the fave, up to the point (but not surpassing it) at which betting the dog becomes +EV.

If you're a bookie and you know a line should be -125, you should offer your customers -135/+125, if your customers are going to favor backing the fave.

And if that's what bookies should do (and in fact is what they commonly do), then you need to account for that when interpreting the lines.

This brings me to a question. I tried asking it before but probably not clearly. In a spread game like football
we have the juice at places like matchbook and pinny mimicking moneylines. So if a line is lets say, -6 -115
+6 +105, or the reverse -6 +105 +6 -115, is the -115 in effect saying that more people are taking that side at that number or that at that number the -115 side is in effect an advantage because it costs more? I realize that
when lines move from say a number like 3 to 31/2 its worth like 23 cents etc and push percentages come in etc, but
more is going on there. I made some assumptions and last 2 years nfl jus t under 54% and same in cbb over a large number of games.

[byronbb]

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/handicappe...alculator.html

[LT Profits]

In a previous thread a guy used an example of a -270 favorite and a +243 under.

We determined that the non-vig line was -250.3

During the last few hours I have learned how to calculate this, but I still do not understand how the concept can be used to benefit me.

If the line is listed at -270 and the non-vig line is -250, does that mean the majority of the action is on the favorite? If it does, how should you react?

IF not, what exactly does it mean....

Please clarify.

If you accept Pinny line as gospel, you now know what line you need to beat at a shop with rogue lines.

[Professor1215]

I am a huge fan of this site and also a huge fan of all the members willing to educate fellow members.

I appreciate SBRNation

[stevenash]

Now I remember why I drop by here.
For threads like these

[Heart]

Why does any of this matter?

[LT Profits]

Why does any of this matter?

If the line is efficient (i.e., Pinny for major sports), the no-vig line is the line you are looking to beat at a rouge (or slow moving) book.

[Heart]

If the line is efficient (i.e., Pinny for major sports), the no-vig line is the line you are looking to beat at a rouge (or slow moving) book.

For this to be profitable you'd have to assume the no-vig line represents the accurate probability of the outcome. Is there any data suggesting the no-vig line is an accurate predictor of actual results?

[LT Profits]

Do a search on beating Pinny's closing no vig line, or just Pinny no-vig closer in general. Hint: If you do beat it often enough, you'd be a very happy man. Is it 100%, no. Is Pinny no-vig closer the CLOSEST gauge to accurate probability, I vote yes.

[Heart]

Assuming no-vig line = real probability of outcome is true, then I would venture a guess (with nothing to back this speculation up with, mind you) that finding such opportunities as you suggest is few and far between, given the books blankets using the over-round.

[LT Profits]

Assuming no-vig line = real probability of outcome is true, then I would venture a guess (with nothing to back this speculation up with, mind you) that finding such opportunities as you suggest is few and far between, given the books blankets using the over-round.

Not as few as you think at square books, but they toss you as soon as they figure you have a clue. If you have a reliable predictive model, bet early. If the line moves with you and you beat Pinny no-vig closer, you'll know you are doing things right.

[uva3021]

Conceptually, the goal is to beat Pinnacle, thus one has to calculate the no-vig line to determine whether or not the implied winning percentage of another book has value compared to Pinnacle. Other books have different, typically higher, overrounds, and calculating fair odds allows you to assess market positions.

[wantitall4moi]

Well since this post was originally bumped from July I guess bumping it after a couple weeks wont hurt.

All sounds good in theory. Pinnacle is notoriously bad at posting opening numbers in baseball. So here is the thing, are all their moves based purely on action or do they have algorithms or programs that follow betting patterns and move according to those?

I cant speak from 2008 to 2010. But from 2000-2007 I bet a lot of money through Pinnacle, and this last season I put a fair amount through there as well. But from all the stuff I collected and watched and saw i didnt see any valid data that showed Pinnacle as the end all be all. They simply offered the best prices both ways in probably 40% of all the baseball games played. So does that make them efficient? If I bet a game on July 24 at -123 (lined (-123/+116) for say 20K, then on July 25 at game time the game is +136 (lined -145/136) on the other side then what? I bet say 10K on the dog for a partial scalp. But that money moves the line 2 cents. What is or was the 'best' no vig line there? Does the winner proof it out? If my first 20K moved the lined 3 or 4 cents, and my buy back of 10K moved it a couple cents then what? Not saying that would always happen but it may sometimes. Or say I bet the full 15K and change for a full buy back, and it moves it 3 cents?

That is the issue with Pinnacle since they offer the best lines on both sides most of the time you have to sift through people taking big leads and then buying back. Some people might send it in a little 'early" so in theory (which all ths is anyway) a line could have possibly reached -160, but because someone bought it back (because they had a no lose bet option) the line only got to -156. So what is the true 'no vig' line then?

Basically what I am saying is it is impossible to determine a no vig line, especially using Pinnacle because their volume is huge, they allow scalping within themselves, and some times encourage it. which is another thing I didnt discuss where they might be over exposed but have guys they know who buy back sitting and waiting, so rather than allowing another book to take their action for a penny or two difference they move the number to one they know guys cant resist. So instead of having 200K over exposed on one side they eat a couple thousand and lessen their exposure by more than half.

Pinnacle is more of an accountant book than a book maker. They have a ton of volume (even still now) and know every spot where they can shave or add a penny to minimize their loss potetnial. Do they 'gamble' sure. But not nearly to the extent of what most people think they do. Since they have added in live wagering it actually allows them to fool with their pre game lines even more. I saw that last year just by watching that season and comparing it to years past.

I am sure some guys will scoff at all this, but whatever, I took so much money out of pinnacle it isnt even funny. And I put so much money through their system it would amaze people. But since I helped balance them off some what even if it was some of my own money I was balancing they didnt care. They made their money off the losers betting steam or 'bad' numbers. So basically it took one or two bad gamblers to pay off one 'smart' gambler looking to just make a nice profit.

Trying to determine a no vig line in relationship to the game itself is impossible, it also doesnt really matter. All anyone can do is find the best line they want on a team at the time they are placing the bet.

because there are so many times lines move 20-30 cents in baseball it isnt even a big deal anymore. So if you look at that and say a team with a -125/115 line has a 'no vig line of say 120/120 and give them a 54.55% win chance. What happens when the line moves to -145/135 (no vig line of 140/140) that team suddenly has a 4% better chance to win? Someone or a bunch of someones think they have a much better chance to win than that thats why the line moved so much in the first place. And results mean nothing. Line moves are right and wrong pretty much the same. If Pinnacle is found by some people (Pinnacle isnt by the way) to be more correct it isnt Pinnacle that knows it s the guys betting through them that moved the numbers.

Like I said in the opening, Pinnacles opening numbers are horrible (versus their closing numbers) in price. So if Pinnacle were really that smart they would have opened with numbers that dont move anywhere near as much as they do. Or maybe they do but they still move them around due to massive volume because they have to so they can entice balanced action.

Like I say good theoretical discussion but nothing that can be proven other than through anecdotal observations.

[wiffle]

lol at wantitall

you don't know how to calculate a no vig line

[wantitall4moi]

lol at wantitall

you don't know how to calculate a no vig line

Thats more than the geniuses usually say in here.

No one knows how to calculate a no vig line actually, because it varies from book to book and in a lot of cases game to game.

Also depends on semantics. A 'true' no vig line would be a fair line in terms of actual odds to win, not in terms of odds to generate action. So if you thought a team had a 60% chance to win then the no vig line would be -150/+150. But the books might post a line that is -120/+110 on the same game. With who knows how much vig taken from each side. One would assume they are calculating their no vig at -115/+115. But more than likely theyre taking all the vig off the favorite and the -120/110 is actually their no vig line. So basically if the favroite wins (the side with the strongest inherant win chance inthe first place) then theyre getting full vig on th pay out. Either guys will lay 120 to win 100 or only get back 83.33 per 100 bet. If the dog happens to win then they get he best of it too, they are paying the least amount they thought they had to and got the extra money people bet on the 'strong' side.

I dont really think most people even know what vig is. Vig is just the amount taken off a winning bet when the book pays off two opposing set of odds. Only winners pay vig. I think that is something people dont get either, so in reality every losing bet is a no vig bet anyway. But that is really playing the semantics card.

Vig is built in so that you are paying 100% on each individual bet. So on a football wager at -110 you lay 110 to win 100, or 100 to win 90.91. thats 9.09%. If you win you get that 9.09 taken off your collection, if you lose you lose your bet regardless of amount. BUT in the long run if you lay -110 every game and are a 54% capper, you actually are paying 4.91% (not 4.55 as some people think vig is @-110.). Example in 50 plays youre 27-23 (54%). You lay 100 per game @ -110. You have put 5000 into play. You will collect 154.55 in profits (2454.55 - 2300). NO vig would have gotten you 400 profit. (2700-2300) So 400 less the 154.55 means the books took 245.45 from what you 'should' have won. 245.45/5000= .04909 or 4.91%. This is one of the few times math is relevant in sports betting. If you had gone 50-0 (for sake of showing work) then you would have put the same 5000 into action, you would have collected 4545.54. 5000-4545.54= 454.46. 454.46/5000= .090892 or 9.09%.

Where a smart gambler is to use the odds against a book, since they have to move odds to balance or entice action then guys with some smarts can cherry pick spots and basically become a bookie themselves. So while they can find odds on opposing teams in the same game that are +ev. For example +110 on Team A and +105 on Team B. It doesnt matter what a no vig line is or even what vig is on it. But in the purest form Vig for the book would be a negative in this situation as they have to pay more than they collect on either side for each bet they took at those specific odds anyway. But even in determining scalps the way you do it out assumes a pure 50/50 chance of either team winning, or pretty close. So in this case with what is around a 3.73% advantage to the player he will expect to get back $7.46 for every 100 dollars bet. It isnt exactly 50% so in this case the actual pay off would be 7.38 per 100 bet on either side. Doesnt matter who wins thats what the player would get back and what the book would have to pay.

That is why I say there is no way to determine a no vig line even on a game where a scalp isnt available or ever was available because enough games do have spots where prices cross over scalpable numbers to void out any formula a book might have in determining a no vig line. More often than not I think they charge the max amount for whatever side they think is getting bet the most, as I said in the opening sentence. That way as long as the line keeps moving on them theyre getting the max amount of 'commission' from each dollar.

[BrUno0]

Thats more than the geniuses usually say in here.

No one knows how to calculate a no vig line actually, because it varies from book to book and in a lot of cases game to game.

Also depends on semantics. A 'true' no vig line would be a fair line in terms of actual odds to win, not in terms of odds to generate action. So if you thought a team had a 60% chance to win then the no vig line would be -150/+150. But the books might post a line that is -120/+110 on the same game. With who knows how much vig taken from each side. One would assume they are calculating their no vig at -115/+115. But more than likely theyre taking all the vig off the favorite and the -120/110 is actually their no vig line. So basically if the favroite wins (the side with the strongest inherant win chance inthe first place) then theyre getting full vig on th pay out. Either guys will lay 120 to win 100 or only get back 83.33 per 100 bet. If the dog happens to win then they get he best of it too, they are paying the least amount they thought they had to and got the extra money people bet on the 'strong' side.

I dont really think most people even know what vig is. Vig is just the amount taken off a winning bet when the book pays off two opposing set of odds. Only winners pay vig. I think that is something people dont get either, so in reality every losing bet is a no vig bet anyway. But that is really playing the semantics card.

Vig is built in so that you are paying 100% on each individual bet. So on a football wager at -110 you lay 110 to win 100, or 100 to win 90.91. thats 9.09%. If you win you get that 9.09 taken off your collection, if you lose you lose your bet regardless of amount. BUT in the long run if you lay -110 every game and are a 54% capper, you actually are paying 4.91% (not 4.55 as some people think vig is @-110.). Example in 50 plays youre 27-23 (54%). You lay 100 per game @ -110. You have put 5000 into play. You will collect 154.55 in profits (2454.55 - 2300). NO vig would have gotten you 400 profit. (2700-2300) So 400 less the 154.55 means the books took 245.45 from what you 'should' have won. 245.45/5000= .04909 or 4.91%. This is one of the few times math is relevant in sports betting. If you had gone 50-0 (for sake of showing work) then you would have put the same 5000 into action, you would have collected 4545.54. 5000-4545.54= 454.46. 454.46/5000= .090892 or 9.09%.

Where a smart gambler is to use the odds against a book, since they have to move odds to balance or entice action then guys with some smarts can cherry pick spots and basically become a bookie themselves. So while they can find odds on opposing teams in the same game that are +ev. For example +110 on Team A and +105 on Team B. It doesnt matter what a no vig line is or even what vig is on it. But in the purest form Vig for the book would be a negative in this situation as they have to pay more than they collect on either side for each bet they took at those specific odds anyway. But even in determining scalps the way you do it out assumes a pure 50/50 chance of either team winning, or pretty close. So in this case with what is around a 3.73% advantage to the player he will expect to get back $7.46 for every 100 dollars bet. It isnt exactly 50% so in this case the actual pay off would be 7.38 per 100 bet on either side. Doesnt matter who wins thats what the player would get back and what the book would have to pay.

That is why I say there is no way to determine a no vig line even on a game where a scalp isnt available or ever was available because enough games do have spots where prices cross over scalpable numbers to void out any formula a book might have in determining a no vig line. More often than not I think they charge the max amount for whatever side they think is getting bet the most, as I said in the opening sentence. That way as long as the line keeps moving on them theyre getting the max amount of 'commission' from each dollar.

if you get both sides +110 and +105 (assuming winning chances are 50%) how do you get 7.46 (i got 7.5). And can you tell me how you got the 7.38?

Also for the 5000 can you tell me how you get 4545.54 (i get the same number just different decimals)

also if you bet 110 to win 100 isn't -110 10% vig? or 9.09? or 4.55%? i see numerous percentages that say -110 is 10%, 4.55%, 9.09%, please help

[wantitall4moi]

if you get both sides +110 and +105 (assuming winning chances are 50%) how do you get 7.46 (i got 7.5). And can you tell me how you got the 7.38?

Also for the 5000 can you tell me how you get 4545.54 (i get the same number just different decimals)

also if you bet 110 to win 100 isn't -110 10% vig? or 9.09? or 4.55%? i see numerous percentages that say -110 is 10%, 4.55%, 9.09%, please help

Only winners pay vig so your win percentage and odds are going to determine how much overall vig you pay.

A guy who lays -110 every game for a thousand games and goes 500-500 is going to pay 4.545% Which means he wont make a profit. technically he didnt 'lose' he just paid commissions on his winners, since his winners and losers were the same the commission he paid was his 'loss'. If he won 1000 out of 1000 he would be paying a full 9.09%. irony is a lot of guys are less than 50% cappers and players so they are actually paying less commission than a guy who can win, but they actually LOSE, they dont simply pay a commission fee on a winning or break even record. They still pay on the few winners they have, but they also lose on losing bets that outweigh their winning ones. In short most guys could be dealt a true no vig line and still lose(if forced to bet only one side). Because they simply cant pick more winners than losers.

Getting both sides plus money or at odds that cant lose is how you turn that percentage into your profit.

While it got a little off topic of the original discussion of how to determine a no vig line. Quite frankly no one here knows and anyone who claims they do is full of shit, because books change how they post odds and move vig all the time so they themselves have a variety of ways to figure out their vig. Most of it has to do with volume, despite what people here also want to claim about books having opinions or 'gambling'. Books want to maximize their returns no matter who wins. Obviously that isnt always possible but they try to minimize the damage as much as they can. Since they have access to every bet they have, be it side, teaser, parlay, half time, full time, whatever they can figure out how they can adjust a numbers within any range of way to get their most optimum result.

The most consistent and clear cut way to make money is to become the book. Not always possible because they do offer such a wide array of holds, but in some sports it is pretty easy. In other sports you hve to hedge around and fool with combinations to get a positive result, the biggest draw back is always the amount of money youre allowed to bet at opposing books, if one place lets you bet whatever you want and another only gives you a modest limit you have to weigh everything together and see if it is worth it. betting 200 or 300 bux a side on games with 5 or 6 point scalps isnt even worth the effort. Sure it might all add up but its not worth the time you spend running around.