[CHUBNUT]

The way that I look at it is that if what I've been successful at is really just random luck, I hope that it lasts a few more years because then I don't care.

You are one smart bastard

[wiffle]

The way I look at it is that every angle you have, vegas knows about and changes the odds accordingly. Because of this I am happy with hitting 55%

if you're hitting 55% you should be betting 4 a living

[suicidekings]

The way I look at it is that every angle you have, vegas knows about and changes the odds accordingly. Because of this I am happy with hitting 55%

That assumes that available odds are always accurate representations of the respective teams probability of winning, and more generally, that there's always a black and white solution to which team has the edge in a particular matchup.

ie: Feb 16/2011: Lakers are -11 road faves at Cleveland (in their last game of a 7 game / 11 day road trip leading into the all star break) and proceed to lose the game 104-99. This has my vote for the most preposterous line of the entire NBA season. I have a hard time believing that this line can be justified as anything but a huge mistake by Vegas, leading the public with a completely unrealistic line as opposed to playing it down the middle. This is an extreme example, but it's not a unique one that could have been exploited by your own capping/angles.

[CaptJames05]

i bet on sbr to eat... i love free pizza

[2Bdown]

im sure there are some pros who bet ONLY baseball

[soxwin]

MLB & the college games are the markets I find the best value IMO.

NFL and NBA are tough to beat with any consistency

[truebluebear]

dont know about US punters making a living from betting ( always seems to be 1 law or another preventing you guys from legitimate gambling ) but here in UK it is a very common practice amongst a lot of people . i'm no expert but i suppose if you want to make a career of gambling then a normal working week of 40 hours or so would be at least required . gl guys !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[shocktopme]

Bluey!!!you could live off of your soccer wins my friend!!!!Your that good!!!*LOL*

[Mr. Peepers]

If you ignore the stats, then you're losing a big edge. Some statistics are irrelevant, some statistics are important - it's up to you to figure out which is which. Look at these two statistical scenarios.

1) Pitcher X has a 4-1 season record with a 2.3 ERA (as opposed to a normal 4.8 ERA) when he plays on a Wednesday evening game in a month with 30 days in it and while wearing his lucky pants.

2) Pitcher Y has a 2-5 season record (and x3 the number of average walks) with a 5.8 ERA (as opposed to a normal 2.1 ERA) when home plate umpire Z officiates who is notorious for squeezing the strike zone.

Would knowledge of these two statistics (which have not been recognised by the market) give you an edge? Would one help you, would they both help you or would none help you?

Never underestimate the importance of a lucky pair of pants

[gregm]

Great thread, its amazing to see the posters from the first few pages. What happened to Pags?

This thread, or least the idea behind it, may get more interesting to discuss over the next few moths with the fallout from this Maryland indictment.

[louis]

There are guys who make a living gambling, but it is not easy or necessarily desirable

[jolmscheid]

Yea I think the only way one can do it for a living is having AT LEAST a $50K bankroll to work with...I mean, betting $500-$1K per game is probably how much it takes to really make anything over the long haul...most pros probably shoot for 5-10 units of profit per month, so a large unit size is needed.......oh and of course you gotta pick +EV winners obviously

[Karim]

a wise highstakes pokerplayer once said: its a hard way to make an easy living.. i guess u could put that n betting too..


discipline, bankroll management and very hard work + skill is all it needs.. hardest thing to get is discipline probably.

i think 99,9% of all guys betting miss at least 1 point of those 4.

[SBRPRO11]

lol i would love 2 make a living off of this stuff!! i was doin alright when i first started cuz i wasn't really thinkin 2 much into it. I turned 40 into 1800 in 3 days!! then thinking i was on a hot streak i started betting outrageous amounts on apparently not so good bets. mostly parlays.. o well u live and u learn. but i 4 one do think its possible

[wiffle]

lol i would love 2 make a living off of this stuff!! i was doin alright when i first started cuz i wasn't really thinkin 2 much into it. I turned 40 into 1800 in 3 days!! then thinking i was on a hot streak i started betting outrageous amounts on apparently not so good bets. mostly parlays.. o well u live and u learn. but i 4 one do think its possible

not 4 u

[horsiehung]

a wise highstakes pokerplayer once said: its a hard way to make an easy living.. i guess u could put that n betting too..


discipline, bankroll management and very hard work + skill is all it needs.. hardest thing to get is discipline probably.

i think 99,9% of all guys betting miss at least 1 point of those 4.

this!!!!!!!!!!!!


i like ti ..perfect!

[WendysRox]

i like ti as well...

[BillyPilgrim]

I would like to get some opinions on this question: if someone with above average analytical and mathematical skills to were to apply those skills towards either sports betting or horse race handicapping, which would give him a greater chance of success?

I don't know much about horse racing but it seems like the vig is similar to the rake in poker - you're competing against other bettors, not the house, which seems to me might result in a higher EV for someone willing to do the research and analysis, much as a poker player has a greater chance of success than a slots player competing against the house. In other words, a poker player with a big enough edge over his fellow players can overcome the rake; can a well-informed and hard-working handicapper overcome the vig in horse betting?

[tukkk]

If you dont know much about horses, then you cant be a successful handicapper, the same as if you are not addicted to playing cards, you wont be a successful poker player. You cant just decide to start making money handicapping horses, if you dont have a thrive for the sport. Even If you start making money, it will surely not be that much because of your potential in that specific sport.

You have got to love what youre doing , because gambling is a long-term project

[mikeybets]

I try to but it aint easy...
expect to do research about 8 hours a day for the next days game.
need to stay ahead of the trends
weather and injuries play a big part in identifying bad posted lines

[Inkwell77]

You can't overcome a 10% vig in horse-racing. Your only possible revenue maker are pick-6's and such which are almost impossible. Can you pick 6 straight NBA games or college games? No one can do this on a consistent basis. Also, there is not enough action in horse-racing and with the odds always changing before post even if you have a major play, like 5-10% of your bankroll, the odds will change drastically that you will not make good money. The big horse races can be profitable but there are only about 20 or so legitimately big horse races (with huge money being bet) every year.

[Gemoka]

When you consider the fact that sportsbooks, who are getting +110 as opposed to -110, have the advatanage of setting the line, can see whihc way the sharp players are betting, can still lose money, how much more difficult is it for someone who is lay -110 to make money.

As lakerfan pointed out simple things like line shopping and bonuss can dramatically increase your bankroll.

for instance lets say you are right 60% of the time. IF you are laying -110 than for every $110 wagered you would expect to make $16. But now lets say that instead of -110 you can get -105, instead of making $16 you would make $18. The $2 may not sound like much but its 12.5% more than what you were making before.

How did you come up with $16 and $18,??
i see this is 5 years old so dont know if guy still posts?

[roanildinho]

if you have sites like betfair who doesnt limit and pinnacle sports or matchbook, you can do fine, earn 30 k from each sites you have 90,

earn 50 k from each site you have 150 yearly

[mikeanite]

i would have to admit, things are getting harder

[JustinBieber]

if you have sites like betfair who doesnt limit and pinnacle sports or matchbook, you can do fine, earn 30 k from each sites you have 90,

earn 50 k from each site you have 150 yearly

lol how simple, why didn't we think of this?

[usernametaken]

Justin Bw, Can you explain the horses ie making money from it?

[colchonero10]

I see some posts talking about 8+ hrs a day making picks - surely it can't take that long. Seems like over-thinking and going crazy looking at numbers to me.

[cjwatsonfan32]

Very few can make a living on betting. Plus it is not a stable income.

[ColdBeerHere]

I'm hoping within in a year to have gambling as my main source of income...This should greatly exceed my income from my business I own....However, I will still keep my business in case DOJ, or something else happens. Save my money in the meantime, and be prepared to move to Vegas, Canada, or elsewhere

[chunk]

I see some posts talking about 8+ hrs a day making picks - surely it can't take that long. Seems like over-thinking and going crazy looking at numbers to me.

You, my friend, have obviously never been there before.

[chunk]

Very few can make a living on betting. Plus it is not a stable income.

Oh. so true! Let's face the facts. As we all know, the odds are against us, so what makes you think that you can win? The challenge could cost you some dough my friend? If you are not up to the challenge and willing to put up one hell of a lot of effort, don't bother. Am I speaking from experience? Well......yes I am.

[BediMindtricks]

This is the same as somebody playing poker for a living.. Got to set rules - go down so much or up so much in a day STOP! Can't hedge bet or stuff like that and end up losing your car, house, family.

[Tomahawk]

you need a big liquid bankroll to start out with. and alot of good info if you even want to attempt something like this.

Yeah, you'll need around $100,000 to start with, need good infos and never bet more then 1% of your bankroll/bet.

[Sawyer]

Oh. so true! Let's face the facts. As we all know, the odds are against us, so what makes you think that you can win? The challenge could cost you some dough my friend? If you are not up to the challenge and willing to put up one hell of a lot of effort, don't bother. Am I speaking from experience? Well......yes I am.

Odds are not "always" against us. You know, this is a battle between you and betting market, not versus bookie. The bookie is not your real enemy. The real enemy is other people in betting market.

You should look for "value", where market didn't find out yet. In some sports, market don't really have any idea about what's going on. Same goes for pitchers too. Some pitchers are undervalued, some pitchers are overpriced. Be selective and pick your spots. Profits will come.

[jolmscheid]

Odds are not "always" against us. You know, this is a battle between you and betting market, not versus bookie. The bookie is not your real enemy. The real enemy is other people in betting market.

You should look for "value", where market didn't find out yet. In some sports, market don't really have any idea about what's going on. Same goes for pitchers too. Some pitchers are undervalued, some pitchers are overpriced. Be selective and pick your spots. Profits will come.

Very good info there Sawyer.....BTW I haven't seen a TOTALS thread from you this season here at SBR....Your totals threads for all sports have been money in the past...