[danshan11]

cool Charlie, I wish "him" the best of luck. does he have documented picks anywhere? is blogabet a legit documented tipster service? I have never heard of them. I know if you create 100 profiles and make picks on 100 different accounts a few will do really good and look really sharp, that is why I like to see the record of beating the line. most of those "top" tipsters if you looked at the last 100 of those 6000 picks you can see how they are really doing. anyway I am not here to talk about tipsters, dont want offend anyone! I am here to talk about the last real conversation and it was about using odds or results for modeling

[Charlies_Hustle2]

cool Charlie, I wish "him" the best of luck. does he have documented picks anywhere? is blogabet a legit documented tipster service? I have never heard of them. I know if you create 100 profiles and make picks on 100 different accounts a few will do really good and look really sharp, that is why I like to see the record of beating the line. most of those "top" tipsters if you looked at the last 100 of those 6000 picks you can see how they are really doing. anyway I am not here to talk about tipsters, dont want offend anyone! I am here to talk about the last real conversation and it was about using odds or results for modeling

You are such a fücking joke!!!! He has a winning record with over 500 bets on paper! What are you talking about, his last 100 bets??? So if he hit 80 of his last 100 bets he is Billy Walters??? Bro, you are such a joke! Just leave, dissapear and don't come back. You've just made a complete fool of yourself.

I hope everyone was watching!

[danshan11]

little rude Charlie calm down man take some extra niceness pills little fella!

you must really like this guy if you named your sbr handle after him, that is respect for a tout.

[danshan11]

@tsty where are you dude, come on dude, answer my question please, I asked you 2 and you disappeared

[danshan11]

hey Charlie I got one more for you this is a winner LMAO OMG WTF ROFL

http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

[InvestBet]

Indeed, if you want to become a long term profitable bettor, finding an edge over the bookmaker is the most important key.

A friend of mine introduced me to this platform a few days ago and asked me if it would be something for me to share some useful knowledge about sports betting with you guys. It all started as a simple side issue for me a few years ago. Now, I turned sports betting into a profitable investment. In addition to my studies at the university, I earn some decent money with sports betting. The bets I place are generated by a very extensive research of data and statistics and knowledge / information through different channels. By placing these 'value bets' I manage to beat the closing line of Pinnacle significantly. When it comes to pre-match bets, the theory about 'value betting' also explains why I can realize long-term profits. Finding value in sports betting is the key to become a profitable bettor in the long term. Now, the idea of value betting is to find exactly those odds where the implied probability of the odd is actually incorrect. This explains a positive return (yield) in the long term, as long as your sample of matches is large enough. Therefore, I'll refer to 'the law of large numbers'. These value bets can be statistically proven on the basis of the closing line of the Asian bookmaker Pinnacle. Just before the match, these are the most efficient odds in the market. Over a sample of 397,395 football matches, Pinnacle’s odds accurately predicted the real world outcome 99.7% of the time. Now, if you are able to beat this closing line, a profit can be expected. This requires patience and discipline, but ultimately delivers a guaranteed profit.

In addition, I only place single bets. Although betting accumulators is a method of betting which is quite popular among the more recreational players, it isn't profitable at all! As much as this may look attractive at first sight, the fact of the matter is that parlay bets are actually far from profitable in reality. Bookmakers do everything they can to make these accumulator bets look attractive to bettors. They offer things like acca insurance and this is not without good reason. With each added game, accumulator bets give a much smaller chance of winning your bets. And for each game added to your betslip there is also an extra margin for the bookmaker. Moreover, they also remove the chance to benefit from the games that you did predict correctly. Only one wrong prediction is enough to lose the whole bet. If you had played all the games as single bets, you might have even ended up in profit despite losing one or even two prediction(s).

For questions or advice you can always send me a message

After all, betting is my passion!

Tommy

[DABOOK]

I find bad weather on Wednesday for Saturday Sunday games. Bet the under early and beat the move.
Crosswinds above 15 mph are good.
I like rain on real grass. The next turf stuff holds up well and isnt effected. Snow isnt much help. Not as much as people think. its gotta acculmulate and have some wind with it.
Good example was the Nore Easter coming up the east coast this weekend. On Tuesday Local news here in Jersey said Sat was going to be awful.
Not many games on the east coast this week. I started checking hourly forecasts for Hartford Connecticut. They kick off at 12pm vs Umass and its on nat grass with 100% chance of rain and 20mph wind North East (Cross wind). On Wed I played Under 71. Right now CRIS has 63.5.
Thats my thing. Im pretty good at it. Its not that hard.

I also cap umpires in baseball. A few umps hit unders at 70%. I rode the shit out of them. I put a stand alone Nat gas generator in my house with the help of Dan Bellino.

Bahama Bowl on Friday looks like 20-30 MPH wind. I snagged 63 but its 59 now. If its a cross wind it might still have value.

[tsty]

oh ok so now the argument is we never know what the closing line is, LOL, you dont think the closing line published is the closing line? and if not why? and do you believe in the moon landing ?

Lol who is tracking pinnacles closing line? Plz tell me

Not the penetrating handi but the actual price

[danshan11]

Lol who is tracking pinnacles closing line? Plz tell me

Not the penetrating handi but the actual price

really dude, still cant answer any questions, just answer questions with questions, come on dude, if you got all this knowledge, share dude share~

[danshan11]

@tsty
how are lines made?
do books release or share the actual closing line? and if not how and why dont they
do you need to beat the line in order to be a long term winner?
and bonus question is the earth flat?

answer the questions tsty this is your chance to shine and show us what you have been implying all along how dumb we (or I am) are and how smart you are, thorough answers please, we are all waiting and if anyone else wants to answer these questions that would be awesome too!

[Alfa1234]

@tsty
how are lines made?
do books release or share the actual closing line? and if not how and why dont they
do you need to beat the line in order to be a long term winner?
and bonus question is the earth flat?

answer the questions tsty this is your chance to shine and show us what you have been implying all along how dumb we (or I am) are and how smart you are, thorough answers please, we are all waiting and if anyone else wants to answer these questions that would be awesome too!

Off course Pinnacle shares it's closing line. It's complete and utter BS to think or say they don't. It's a simple matter of using their API to get the prices all the time and store them in a database. The last price the API gives right before the start of the game (and this is always correct as the API can also be used to place bets) is the closing line/price.

Plenty of sites do this...I have no idea why Tsty would imply this isn't happening.

[tsty]

Lol have u used their api before?

U will get banned very quickly for it

If u ever look up the closing odds from a few months ago it will always be off by a couple of cents

Its just how it is

[Alfa1234]

Lol have u used their api before?

U will get banned very quickly for it

If u ever look up the closing odds from a few months ago it will always be off by a couple of cents

Its just how it is

I have and still do. You do not get banned if you actually use it to place bets..I have no idea why you would say they will always be off by a couple of cents. It's simply not true.

[Bsims]

Danshan, you are a main reason why I don't want to post. You appear to be unable to have a rational discussion as well as you try to twist everyone else's posts back to your singular point of view. Bottom line is, nothing is as cut and dried as you seem to think no matter how many times you repeat it.
Joe.

Joe is a very smart person. I've learned stuff from his posts. Dan is not. Today I wasted 30 minutes reading posts with him in a pointless argument with someone else. He is destroying this forum . It's time to put him on the ignore list. I've never done this to anyone, so I'll see how effective it is.

[Charlies_Hustle2]

Joe is a very smart person. I've learned stuff from his posts. Dan is not. Today I wasted 30 minutes reading posts with him in a pointless argument with someone else. He is destroying this forum . It's time to put him on the ignore list. I've never done this to anyone, so I'll see how effective it is.

Only bad thing about the ignore list is, you can still see his posts if someone quotes him. But yeah buddy, do it.

[danshan11]

still no answers @tsty, answer the questions dude

[semibluff]

I have an extensive ignore list and i'm a compulsive AdBlocker. If you use AdBlock Plus I strongly recommend adding:

sportsbookreview.com##.postbitignored.po stbitim

...to your filter preferences. (There should not be a space in the word "postbitim". That's a coding effect on this forum). I would also suggest considering:

sportsbookreview.com##.bbcode_container *

...to the filter list, but that's more of a personal choice.

[chilidog]

You are such a fücking joke!!!! He has a winning record with over 500 bets on paper! What are you talking about, his last 100 bets??? So if he hit 80 of his last 100 bets he is Billy Walters??? Bro, you are such a joke! Just leave, dissapear and don't come back. You've just made a complete fool of yourself.
I hope everyone was watching!

The man's right. It's called survivorship bias. Pinnacle wrote a great article about it: https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-...923MY88639RC7A

[tsty]

Lol what happened to alfas post?

Once again people who dont actually bet talking about shit they dont use

[Charlies_Hustle2]

The man's right. It's called survivorship bias. Pinnacle wrote a great article about it: https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-...923MY88639RC7A

Good read, tehre was a typo in that original post from me: I meant "with over 5000 bets"

[danshan11]

still no answers @tsty, answer the questions dude

hmmm... I am so curious as to why no answers, to such simple questions for a million a year + winner long term and he has also implied others mainly me were wrong about these things

[danshan11]

The man's right. It's called survivorship bias. Pinnacle wrote a great article about it: https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-...923MY88639RC7A

who is right me or the tout charlie 2 shoes, with his surely documented picks on his blog and his system of tailing teams that play good when its cloudy on tuesdays when the total is over 9 and the umps wear red shoes

[chilidog]

who is right me or the tout charlie 2 shoes, with his surely documented picks on his blog and his system of tailing teams that play good when its cloudy on tuesdays when the total is over 9 and the umps wear red shoes

You are right.

[danshan11]

I thought that is what you were saying but I did not want to say something and you be like "no you are wrong dumbass!" LOL and I would have been like so tell me why, if I am wrong tell me why and you would be like, I wont answer that it does not deserve an answer and I would be like see no answers see ok and you would be like here is a screenshot of me blocking you and I would be like told you I was not wrong but you would not read it cause you blocked me! LOL

[danshan11]

you got to know they say 3% of bettors are winners and most of those winners are SB winners, and now you have a really small number of winners by skill. 3% win but the winners who win by skill is super super tiny I guess less than 1%. and we are talking long term here, I am not talking about 100-1000 games long term, 1000s of games on the record

[nash13]

it is the same discussion they do on fantasy sports.
just look at the piece from john oliver about fan duel and draft kings.
they don't care about the 1% who win by skill.
these are good marketing opportunities for them.

go to any "normal" bookmaker like betsson, tipico, etc etc. they post high accu. parlay winners just to attract the avg. joe.
"oh look he has won 20.000 bucks with a 10 game parlay". this is where the money is for them.
and we are not talking about asian markets etc.
when you are getting in dangerous territories for them and win big, they will limit you, delay your payments and KYC-BS.

there are people who make a living out of betting and their skill, but let's not act like it is an easy task.

[SsgKen]

Trends

Homer Bailey had a record you could bet on. I will look it up by the opener. When he started, you faded him, took the points or something else. Worked 17-2.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Dan is a bum.

[danshan11]

Dan is a bum.

without a doubt!

[ManOfValue]

At the end of the day most lines can be beat. Of course there are a ton more losers than winners but sportsbook opening lines are pretty weak. Too much public perception is built in sometimes. Many times you can find value in openers, if not wait a while and the line may move enough for you to get value. It does take a lot of knowledge and discipline though. No coin flips. If you consistently get the better of the line you will make money.

[SsgKen]

Anyone who noticed the NFL Browns was very, very bad a few years ago, might have faded them and took the opponents ML, went 16-0. Pretend you opened a new account with 100% limit of $1000 bonus but 35X rollover and bet it all 16 times.

[danshan11]

Anyone who noticed the NFL Browns was very, very bad a few years ago, might have faded them and took the opponents ML, went 16-0. Pretend you opened a new account with 100% limit of $1000 bonus but 35X rollover and bet it all 16 times.

if you could find short term winners like that over and over you could do really well

[SsgKen]

I am playing Gonzaga in NCAAM about 14-4 ATS. Members advised me to bet first half in case they go to sleep in 4Q. One member said take Pacific 1H under 30 too.

All covered.

Feb. last, Auburn was well positioned and went 0-13 ATS while taking their opponents plus points were winners.

[danshan11]

past data you can easily see that in most scenarios when a team goes 0-10 ATS or 10-0 ATS they still cover about 50% of the time, I dont see any data supporting this being a decisive factor in covering or not. Streaks are just that streaks and they get broken about 50% of the time which to me implies they are not indicative of future ATS results. With that said if a team is 10-0 ATS it can be a small window for the line not catching up to the teams actual performance and could be an edge but I am not sure how you would filter data to see that in back testing. If a team goes 10-0 ATS does that mean they are more likely to cover (line has not caught up) or less likely to cover because the line is overly adjusted for this. This leads me to believe the past 10-0 ATS is not a good tool in finding edge. What are your thoughts on this.

[SsgKen]

Nerf brings a lot. I will have to think and examine these stats. Maybe by Monday.