Danshan, you are a main reason why I don't want to post. You appear to be unable to have a rational discussion as well as you try to twist everyone else's posts back to your singular point of view. Bottom line is, nothing is as cut and dried as you seem to think no matter how many times you repeat it.
Where do you come up with the idea that posters including myself ever claimed that they only pick winners? And are you really trying to equate a line of -1500 to -150000? Of course, that is ridiculous.
There is so much that you are unable to consider because of your singular belief that the line is always 50/50. Until you allow yourself to think (this is the "think" tank) outside the box, I feel that you will hurt your chances for success.
Joe.