1. #1
    inspektr
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    What's your best tool to help get an edge?

    when it comes to basketball and football, what's something you guys like to look at? I usually look at average points per game and opponent points per game, along with average margin of victory. Series history really helps with college football and basketball. Most of the time the eye test is the best, by just watching previous games and trying make a judgement on that. Is there any specific stat that has been proven over time to be consistent to help pick winners? I realized sometimes when you dig to deep into stats, they can sway you a wrong way when the sometimes the winning pick is obvious sitting there infront of you

  2. #2
    HeeeHAWWWW
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    Picking winners is a logical impossibility, since they haven't happened yet.

  3. #3
    inspektr
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    Quote Originally Posted by HeeeHAWWWW View Post
    Picking winners is a logical impossibility, since they haven't happened yet.
    yeah but sometimes there are telling trends that can lean you towards the winning side, but some trends are just a mirage and not a good indicater for predictions. a lot of times the gut feelings on a game and the situational analysis work too

  4. #4
    BigdaddyQH
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    It is real simple. You can argue for or against any system you choose to. You can claim to be a sharp, square, or anything in between. The bottom line is this. Either you have "it" or you do not. "It" is what your gut tells you. A sixth sense, if you will. A few of us have it. It's when every system in the book tells you have a good wager, but your gut says that you do not. If you have "it," you are going to either win, or not lose (by not wagering) 10% more, and that is often the difference between being an overall winner or loser. It's like any other talent. Sure you could win without "it", but it is a hell of a lot easier to win with "it".
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  5. #5
    Johnny Gunn
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH View Post
    It is real simple. You can argue for or against any system you choose to. You can claim to be a sharp, square, or anything in between. The bottom line is this. Either you have "it" or you do not. "It" is what your gut tells you. A sixth sense, if you will. A few of us have it. It's when every system in the book tells you have a good wager, but your gut says that you do not. If you have "it," you are going to either win, or not lose (by not wagering) 10% more, and that is often the difference between being an overall winner or loser. It's like any other talent. Sure you could win without "it", but it is a hell of a lot easier to win with "it".
    What Bigdaddy said!

    I try not to overload my brain with statistics even though I do look at them, but statistics alone is not the deciding factor. Regarding the NFL, don't be a prisoner of the moment and don't make your play going off last week's games alone. The NFL is tricky to say the least and the one thing I like to look at is the teams offense and defensive lines, who's got the advantage in the trenches. For college you got to try to figure out the motivation of the team, so take a good look at who they just played and who they are going to play the next week. Take a look at Michigan State for example, they lose to Northwestern at home and then go beat Penn State on the road, most would say they were looking ahead and Northwestern was a trap game. Also, I like take a look at who's got the better coach and get in their heads and ask myself how will they attack/defend there current opponent. Like bigdaddy said, listen to your gut that's probably the #1 thing I go by. I will make a bet early in the week and then the morning of any certain game my gut will tell me you made the wrong pick, so I will bet the other team or just bet enough back to cover my 1st bet.
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  6. #6
    danshan11
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH View Post
    It is real simple. You can argue for or against any system you choose to. You can claim to be a sharp, square, or anything in between. The bottom line is this. Either you have "it" or you do not. "It" is what your gut tells you. A sixth sense, if you will. A few of us have it. It's when every system in the book tells you have a good wager, but your gut says that you do not. If you have "it," you are going to either win, or not lose (by not wagering) 10% more, and that is often the difference between being an overall winner or loser. It's like any other talent. Sure you could win without "it", but it is a hell of a lot easier to win with "it".
    all sportsbooks are praying your gut tells you what to bet!
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  7. #7
    danshan11
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    to truly get an edge you have to be able to take something into account that actually matters that the books do not. say you think TOP matters and the books dont, if you are right and they are wrong you will see a true edge, I dont think it exists in major sports, so the only true real edge is not a stat its a trend or something that people are leaning on pushing books and the lines that should not, great example is Hard knocks, it profiles a team exposes and connects a large group of people to that team and MAYBE can sway the lines a few games into the season more than they should, that kind of thing honestly is the only possibility for edge anymore, super computers good stats, more readily available news have made capping as a business nearly impossible, yes I know 3 zillion guys will scream "I am winner, I kill the books, they ban me everyday" but in reality beating the books is very difficult now. think of what happens books have a good "decent model" they make a line and not only do they think 'Pistol Ted' is awesome they have years of his game data to know and they know if he likes team A its time to move the line and they have hundreds of pistol petes to affirm their opinion on a line and or fix it. The books are sharp and they love that you think you know something cause it just makes you braver and you bet more.
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  8. #8
    chilidog
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    all sportsbooks are praying your gut tells you what to bet!
    Bigdaddy isn't actually good. He just screams that he is. Watch his spreadsheet and pay attention to what picks he posts throughout the season. He's a loser.

  9. #9
    captrobey
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  10. #10
    Microphone
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    all sportsbooks are praying your gut tells you what to bet!
    There is a square "it" and a sharp "it"!!
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  11. #11
    danshan11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Microphone View Post
    There is a square "it" and a sharp "it"!!
    dont forget a NERF "it"

  12. #12
    Microphone
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    dont forget a NERF "it"
    Geez how could I forget?
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  13. #13
    semibluff
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    Quote Originally Posted by inspektr View Post
    when it comes to basketball and football, what's something you guys like to look at? I usually look at average points per game and opponent points per game, along with average margin of victory. Series history really helps with college football and basketball. Most of the time the eye test is the best, by just watching previous games and trying make a judgement on that. Is there any specific stat that has been proven over time to be consistent to help pick winners? I realized sometimes when you dig to deep into stats, they can sway you a wrong way when the sometimes the winning pick is obvious sitting there infront of you
    Download the SBR Seaweed app, and fade every pick it gives you.

  14. #14
    danshan11
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    the thing is you cannot fade or follow anyone for consistency, you are still going to pay the margin unless you are beating the line.

  15. #15
    Sawyer
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    Pinnacle odds.

  16. #16
    danshan11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sawyer View Post
    Pinnacle odds.
    what about pinnacle odds?

  17. #17
    RangeFinder
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    It's this simple. You have to have good numbers. If you don't, you will not win. As far as the "it" factor, it only works if you can create sharper numbers than the books.

  18. #18
    danshan11
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    sharper numbers are two things
    A beat the closing line
    B your lines are closer to the actual results over 100000000+ records than the sharpest book

  19. #19
    RangeFinder
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    sharper numbers are two things
    A beat the closing line
    B your lines are closer to the actual results over 100000000+ records than the sharpest book
    Agree with A but not B

    Results of games compared to the spread are irrelevant.

  20. #20
    danshan11
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    no over a huge sample size if you can be more precise to results than the books you are a winner, this is literally impossible but in theory is a winning way
    example
    Books close over 1 zillion results at 52% implied but games win at 54%
    now you got over 1 zillion results 54% implied and games win at 54%
    your model is better and you can beat the market, you are sharper than the market therefore you can take advantage of market errors better than the consensus

  21. #21
    Roscoe_Word
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    Just my humble opinion.

    Don't bet games just because they're on TV. (Even though you can watch any game, any time these days)
    Don't chase.
    Bet what you can comfortably afford to lose. (Have a BR dedicated to Sports Betting)
    Utilize the "Plateau" MM method. (No Kelly)
    Work hard on recording keeping daily.
    Hang in there on losing streaks. (Ya know that L10 is gonna happen one day)
    Low vig bets.
    Enjoy your job; if it gets too stressful, play small amounts for fun.

  22. #22
    Yazworm91
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    It's taken me a long time to understand what I'm good at and what I'm not. I have a true belief there is going to be maybe 3 games in an NFL season where my most money is going to be made. A very few and i mean a very few can bet everyday and win in the long run. I can't. Just like Roscoe said don't chase. I love to live bet and you can make money if you are patient doing it.

    I'll say this. My niche I've found is NFL but that's because I'm patient and I don't get sucked into the "how they played last week" situations. I'm a big home dog guy when it's comes to the NFL. Plus I live by two major rules that helps me make money

    1. Never ever lay points on the road with Blake Bortles.
    2. Never ever lay points in Seattle against Russell Wilson.

    Those two rules will save you money or make you money.

    BigDaddy is right also. Sometimes the best bet is no bet at all. That may be the hardest thing to do. I know I'm never going to live off gambling but I know i can make money if I'm smart and patient. One of the hardest things to do on a Saturday or Sunday is to NOT bet lol.
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  23. #23
    ekrazee33
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH View Post
    It is real simple. You can argue for or against any system you choose to. You can claim to be a sharp, square, or anything in between. The bottom line is this. Either you have "it" or you do not. "It" is what your gut tells you. A sixth sense, if you will. A few of us have it. It's when every system in the book tells you have a good wager, but your gut says that you do not. If you have "it," you are going to either win, or not lose (by not wagering) 10% more, and that is often the difference between being an overall winner or loser. It's like any other talent. Sure you could win without "it", but it is a hell of a lot easier to win with "it".
    Bingo. Very well put.

  24. #24
    Sawyer
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    what about pinnacle odds?
    You compare the line you found with Pinnacle's. Let's say Waterford -1,5 is +100 in Pinnacle. If you can find this bet at +130 in another book, then you have a great edge. Value Bet is the best system on earth and Pinnacle is the most reliable indicator.
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  25. #25
    danshan11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sawyer View Post
    You compare the line you found with Pinnacle's. Let's say Waterford -1,5 is +100 in Pinnacle. If you can find this bet at +130 in another book, then you have a great edge. Value Bet is the best system on earth and Pinnacle is the most reliable indicator.
    I think that is really smart and a very successful way to bet for sure

  26. #26
    nash13
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    i have a 5% rule ongoing. If your odds and predictions are offering 5% more value than the sharp bookies it is almost a safe bet to take it.
    but determining the % is the key. i use an algorithm based on several ranking methods.

  27. #27
    DABOOK
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    I find bad weather on Wednesday for Saturday Sunday games. Bet the under early and beat the move.
    Crosswinds above 15 mph are good.
    I like rain on real grass. The next turf stuff holds up well and isnt effected. Snow isnt much help. Not as much as people think. its gotta acculmulate and have some wind with it.
    Good example was the Nore Easter coming up the east coast this weekend. On Tuesday Local news here in Jersey said Sat was going to be awful.
    Not many games on the east coast this week. I started checking hourly forecasts for Hartford Connecticut. They kick off at 12pm vs Umass and its on nat grass with 100% chance of rain and 20mph wind North East (Cross wind). On Wed I played Under 71. Right now CRIS has 63.5.
    Thats my thing. Im pretty good at it. Its not that hard.

    I also cap umpires in baseball. A few umps hit unders at 70%. I rode the shit out of them. I put a stand alone Nat gas generator in my house with the help of Dan Bellino.

  28. #28
    DABOOK
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    Quote Originally Posted by DABOOK View Post
    I find bad weather on Wednesday for Saturday Sunday games. Bet the under early and beat the move.
    Crosswinds above 15 mph are good.
    I like rain on real grass. The next turf stuff holds up well and isnt effected. Snow isnt much help. Not as much as people think. its gotta acculmulate and have some wind with it.
    Good example was the Nore Easter coming up the east coast this weekend. On Tuesday Local news here in Jersey said Sat was going to be awful.
    Not many games on the east coast this week. I started checking hourly forecasts for Hartford Connecticut. They kick off at 12pm vs Umass and its on nat grass with 100% chance of rain and 20mph wind North East (Cross wind). On Wed I played Under 71. Right now CRIS has 63.5.
    Thats my thing. Im pretty good at it. Its not that hard.

    I also cap umpires in baseball. A few umps hit unders at 70%. I rode the shit out of them. I put a stand alone Nat gas generator in my house with the help of Dan Bellino.
    Mass uconn down to 62 at BETONLINE
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  29. #29
    Rich Boy
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    These are some truths about sports handicapping into todays markets:

    1) Beating the books now a days is MUCH harder than it used to be, which is why I have transitioned mostly to stock trading (PM me if interested)

    2) Dont even think about trying to beat books in major markets (NFL, NBA, MLB sides), dont even fkn try it! The lines are too efficient and you are already at a significant disadvantage. Books know everything you know and a whole lot more, they have countless historical data, trends, and also the input of some of the sharpest handicappers and syndicate groups in the industry betting into their lines, you dont have any of that info. Even if you can consistently out handicap books in major markets, there is really no point, your edges will be minuscule at best and you will have to grind out profits over a massive sample of games. Dont make things harder for yourself.

    3) Your only chance as a handicapper these days it to focus on lines books dont care about (smaller markets, props, futures, team totals, etc) The juice on these lines may be higher and the limits lower but thats exactly what you want. Hammer the books where they are SCARED to get beat since you the small time bettor actually has a chance of handicapping the lines more efficiently than the books

    4) Any winning players that show success will be closely monitored and either limited, banned or books will sharpen up anything you are consistently beating them at. Thats the drawdown of taking someones money, they arent going to like it and you can bet they have tons of money invested in making sure you dont beat them consistently. That is why stocks are so much better, you can consistently win under the radar and nobody is going to try and stop you. Edges are plush and money easy to make if you have discipline.

    Making money in todays markets is near fkn impossible, let me tell you as a hardcore math and statistics guy.
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  30. #30
    bitcoinLuke
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    all sportsbooks are praying your gut tells you what to bet!
    What this guy said. Anyone not using a model is going to lose longterm, end of story.

  31. #31
    danshan11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rich Boy View Post
    These are some truths about sports handicapping into todays markets:

    1) Beating the books now a days is MUCH harder than it used to be, which is why I have transitioned mostly to stock trading (PM me if interested)

    2) Dont even think about trying to beat books in major markets (NFL, NBA, MLB sides), dont even fkn try it! The lines are too efficient and you are already at a significant disadvantage. Books know everything you know and a whole lot more, they have countless historical data, trends, and also the input of some of the sharpest handicappers and syndicate groups in the industry betting into their lines, you dont have any of that info. Even if you can consistently out handicap books in major markets, there is really no point, your edges will be minuscule at best and you will have to grind out profits over a massive sample of games. Dont make things harder for yourself.

    3) Your only chance as a handicapper these days it to focus on lines books dont care about (smaller markets, props, futures, team totals, etc) The juice on these lines may be higher and the limits lower but thats exactly what you want. Hammer the books where they are SCARED to get beat since you the small time bettor actually has a chance of handicapping the lines more efficiently than the books

    4) Any winning players that show success will be closely monitored and either limited, banned or books will sharpen up anything you are consistently beating them at. Thats the drawdown of taking someones money, they arent going to like it and you can bet they have tons of money invested in making sure you dont beat them consistently. That is why stocks are so much better, you can consistently win under the radar and nobody is going to try and stop you. Edges are plush and money easy to make if you have discipline.

    Making money in todays markets is near fkn impossible, let me tell you as a hardcore math and statistics guy.

    dont say this on SBR, they will get pissed and people will call you a troll.

  32. #32
    Roy787
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    Hi Rich Boy :-)

    nice comment you made there about handicapping markets and hard to get an edge anywhere these days...

    you talk from change to stock market and have maybe some ideas to share?? (not possible to send PM for me because Im new...)

    Im at one point where I think to stop with betting after some years... Like you said hard to beat them these days even in small markets I think. To many other people buy odds also fast these days I think.

    I made a living from betting 10 years now and Im just working on some change...

  33. #33
    danshan11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roy787 View Post
    Hi Rich Boy :-)

    nice comment you made there about handicapping markets and hard to get an edge anywhere these days...

    you talk from change to stock market and have maybe some ideas to share?? (not possible to send PM for me because Im new...)

    Im at one point where I think to stop with betting after some years... Like you said hard to beat them these days even in small markets I think. To many other people buy odds also fast these days I think.

    I made a living from betting 10 years now and Im just working on some change...
    you say you make a living betting, what is your CLV and ROI overall or per sport if you wish to share?

  34. #34
    Roy787
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    It was mostly on small soccer leagues Asias offered... But things changed lots last few years! In good month I was around 10% ROI...

  35. #35
    bhoor
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rich Boy View Post
    These are some truths about sports handicapping into todays markets:



    Making money in todays markets is near fkn impossible, let me tell you as a hardcore math and statistics guy.
    Yes, it's impossible to beat big markets.

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