Originally Posted by
johnnyutah20
Well we all have our theories. My formula may be considered by some to be fairly rudimentary but I have been above 50% since the beginning of the football season 2009. I would love to hear everyone's thoughts. Maybe I'm way off, but what can I say? It's working.
My strategy is based on the principle that the opening line established by bookmakers is a number to be trusted (I know about sucker lines etc., but for the most part, the opening line represents a calculated number representing the most logical out come).
Now I use betus online. I go to the site covers.com, then go to odds, and throughout the week I watch for the largest possible difference in point spreads between the opening spread and the current spread on betus. I have noticed that a 3 point difference throughout the week is usually as high as it goes (sometimes more). The difference in the poinspread reflects the public opinion of the game (who people are betting on). I simply bet against public opinion and essentially get 3 points.
Now, I find 10 games I like (each having a spread difference from the opener of 3 or more) and bet on each of them straight up. My goal is simply to win more than I lose.
Week one I was 6 for 10, week two I was 8 for ten, and week 3 I was 8 for 10.
I never parlay, and I never tease.
Not sure if this is frowned upon or not, but I'm having a ball with it.
J