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Betting Moneylines Profitability
I am a pretty new bettor, and I don't understand why there seems to be no one who specializes in moneylines. I have done a few simulations, and they seem fairly profitable (avg 15-25% growth each month NCAA F, NCAA B) so am i just completely missing something, or is it a legitimate strategy?
Yes, you are completely missing the fact that your simulations are absolutely irrelevant.Originally Posted by money42
Just a random noise.
It simply cannot be anything else, or it would violate natural order of things.
It is not about ML or ATS or sport betting in general.
It is about complete lack of common sense, unfortunately.
At least when it comes to sport betting (gambling)
As far as betting MLs.
It's being done all the time.
ATS is way closer to coin flip and thus is way more popular among bettors and thus is being discussed way more often and thus an illusion is created that nobody does MLs. That's all.
Last edited by hutennis; 01-04-13 at 01:30 AM.
its actually more profitable to bet moneyline dogs in NFL rather than the spread, data back to 1989 supports this, nobody ever does it though and as it is only marginally more profitable pretty much everyone just bets at the line.
For NBA you are better off taking the ML for 3pt or less underdogs
Personally I think Americans have just been trained to bet the line. AFAIK the rest of the world has no preference either way.
The line is just an extra variable to take into account with your capping, so I think always betting the line is tougher to win at.
Are you saying betting ML is futile? Because it just seems easier to pick the teams who will win at a high percentage, and get very good at that.
I Love ML. Teams play to win not to cover the spread.
That was why I was drawn to it, seems like a better way to make $ over the long run, but have you had positive results?
on ML always will be lower line...
You can't make money by betting favourites on ML since heavy chalk will kill you. Pick ML if you like dog to win straight up. Always lay points if you like the favourite. If you have any doubts about if favourite will cover, then don't bet.
Point spread is -4,5 and you lay only -105. If you pick ML, you pay approximately -200. When converted to decimal odds,
-200 is 1.50, You need %66.66+ in order to make profit.
-105 is 1,952, You need just %51.23+ in order to make profit.
So how often this favourite will win by 1-2-3-4 points? Not worth of laying -200 for sure..
With all due respect, that is not quite correct. It's all about +EV and +EG. Favorite ml's, on average, might be slightly worse bets than spread on same game due to skewed odds and higher juice on money lines, but given the same edge, you should always prefer favorite ml over the spread. Less volatility and higher expected growth of bankroll by playing the more probable outcome. Nothing wrong betting big dogs either, but that increases variance.
Last edited by juuso; 01-04-13 at 02:20 PM.
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Money Lines
The key to finding value in money lines is the spread structure between the price you're laying on the fav vs the +price you're getting on the dog. In baseball, where the money line is the standard bet, we enjoy tight spreads (i.e., fav lays -135, dog takes +125). And some books offer even tighter spreads. In these cases, the vig is less burdensome than laying 11:10 on a supposed even money point spread proposition. Finding value becomes problematic, however, as the spreads widen in other sports. With the wider spread structures, it is a lot harder, often impossible, to find value on either side of the proposition.
Where you can find value on money lines in football and basketball, in addition to the advantage of having the same interest as that of your team's coach and players, hedge players have the added advantage of wider middle shots at half time (when you have more information on how things are matching up) and esp in those games where your play is in good or great shape, allowing you to lay off some risk or win both bets. This opportunity can add a lot of value for hedge players. Only wish we we were given the chance (beyond in-game angles) to hedge bet the the last 4 innings in baseball - esp with today's bullpens.
That is every bit as difficult as picking against the spread. It's not enough to simply pick a team likely to win SU at a high percentage, they must win at a higher rate than the moneylines you are betting. A team that wins SU at an 80 percent clip, for example, would be a loser for you if you had to pay -450 to bet them.
What do you mean? You pay a price for reducing variance: you have to tie up more money.
Of course you can win betting moneylines...PLUS moneylines...Good cappers who know value bet plus moneylines all the time...
If you are taking moneyline FAVs, then yes, you are wasting your time (and money)...
ML Favs are not always absent value - but you certainly can't lay those prices casually. You need to fully understand the winning percentage that the chalk price implies, appreciate the load you're taking on in laying it and have a damn good reason (sound basis) for doing so.
I can't believe the number of people who don't understand implied probability and theoretical hold. Big favorite does not necessarily equal big juice. Some of you guys badly need to read http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/handicappe...ical-hold.html
Well said. Betting plus money can be very profitable if you pick your spots right. If spread is small and I like underdog's chance to win outright, I always pick dog on Moneyline, much better odds.
Therefore, when betting a favourite, never bet ML. There's no way you can't win over long haul by laying -250, -300, -500 favourites. In many tipster sites, usually there's a minimum odds requirement, usually 1.50 or 1.60, guess why?
If I like a favourite to win, always I ask myself this team can cover the spread? If I have doubts, If I'm not sure why bet ML? Anything can misfire.
So take my advice and consider betting ML only if the subject is an underdog. If you like the favourite so much, consider to lay points..or skip.
Last edited by Sawyer; 02-05-13 at 04:02 PM.
This post is dead on. If you think Team A has an 80% of winning and you can get them -200, you wouldn't bet that? Click the link guys
(Once again) What a clown.
When I see posts like these, once again I realize/understand how books are stay in business. These Chalk-ML Lovers definetely have no idea about value. Anyway, I'm a Professional Handicapper and I know my stuff. My bankroll justifies it. I'm confident with what I know so I won't discuss about it since this is nothing but a waste of time. Tell a veteran gambler that you want to pick a basketball team on ML, instead of picking -3 or -4 handicap, he will think you're a novice bettor, lol. Post something like that on a closed forum and everybody will laugh to you, lol. Then you will realize who is the clown
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So true.
ML or handicap does not matter. You still lose the same, clown.When I see posts like these, once again I realize/understand how books are stay in business. These Chalk-ML Lovers definetely have no idea about value. Anyway, I'm a Professional Handicapper and I know my stuff. My bankroll justifies it. I'm confident with what I know so I won't discuss about it since this is nothing but a waste of time. Tell a veteran gambler that you want to pick a basketball team on ML, instead of picking -3 or -4 handicap, he will think you're a novice bettor, lol. Post something like that on a closed forum and everybody will laugh to you, lol. Then you will realize who is the clown
You may be losing. It doesn't mean everybody else losing. Me, I'm a winning player and I'm very happy/satisfied with my betting income. I'm making my living by this.
Added you to my Ignore List. You're not at my level. Good bye.
Last edited by Sawyer; 02-06-13 at 04:09 PM.
It is already evident that you are a clown, but there is one aspect of your clown-ness that deserves special mention: Pretty much the only justification you provide for your laughable statements is the alleged fact that you are a pro gambler. Has it ever dawned on you that, since proving one's pro gambler status via the internet is impossible, anyone can counter your ludicrous claims while claiming they are pro gamblers themselves?
Agree 100% that all players - esp those considering betting money lines - need to get their mind around both implied win pct and theoretical hold. The winning pct. (break even pct) that any money line implies is fundamental to the value analysis. It is the clearest representation of what any line means and it's the basis for the determination of EV.
As to theoretical hold - it's critical to appreciate and respect the exact size of the service charge we're paying to the book on any given play and make every effort to keep it to a minimum. Also agree that theoretical hold can be counterintuitive when it comes to money lines. The higher priced contests, athough they carry wider spreads, will often in fact carry a lower service charge vis a vis the no vig line than do the cheaper prices with tighter spreads.
Of course, we know we're going to be paying a service charge on either side of a money line (fav or dog), but the big question is whether the underlying no vig line upon which that money line is based is accurate or not - and if any degree of inaccuracy is substantial enough to offset the burden of the service charge being applied on our side of the overround. Bottom line, we have to consider the total propsitional value.
What gives you a chance in betting sports on the money line is that those underlying no vig lines (just like point spreads) are sometimes not so sharp. It's not like in dice or casino games where the underlying probability assumptions are dead accurate and the theoretical hold is guaranteed to ultimately have its way with your bankroll.
Last edited by BeatingBaseball; 02-07-13 at 03:07 PM. Reason: typo
WHY BETTING ML IS A SUCKER BET?
Betting ML favourites in basketball is quick recipe to poorhouse specially popular bets where the masses are headed for slaughterhouse.
*I don't like to offend any players here but if you have this habbit, this is a chance for you to change your mentality.
For many players, "handicap" is scary. They're only interested in win. They think/look in short term.
Public Bettor: Hımm, Clippers vs Raptors. Clippers is a LOCK. No way, they won't lose to lowly Raptors, it's impossible. Clippers is the better team here. Spread is -5. I better keep it safe and pick ML. Don't want to lose my wager with a last minute basket. Here we go, let's lay the chalk!
When laying -105, you just need %51.23 to breakeven. When laying -250, you need %71.42 win rate. Good luck with that! Even you win 2 of 3 bets, you still lose.
Raptors won outright. This is NBA, Where amazing happens. Crazy things happen in this league. Any team can beat any team in any given day. Remember Thunder and Miami lost versus who? Yeah, Washington..
Today, almost everybody and their mothers were on Real Madrid and Efes Pilsen. (Spain Basketball League and Turkish Basketball League)
Odds changed a lot. Real Madrid was full squad and Efes Pilsen was the better team then Galatasaray, result?
Anything can happen in sports betting. You must "always" look for the value. We can't know who will win, who will lose but we can make a probability calculation based on our handicapping skills and we pull the trigger if the selection is a value bet, in our opinion of course..
If betting basketball favourites on ML is a waste of time, you can fade this approach and pick large dogs on Moneyline. I like it specially if spread is small..
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Agree with Sawyer, value is the key. For the NFL, that value for me is on the live dogs, most of whom are short dogs but +150 or better on the ml.
I only wish betting money line dogs was as easy as some believe.
What I've observed among players over the years is a lot of selective memory when it comes to big dogs coming in on the money line. The big upset gets a lot of attention and celebration - but the far more frequent losses are easily forgotten.
The Ravens playoff win over the Broncos is a classic example. Baltimore was a great cash on the money line that day, but no one mentioned that if you took the dog on the ML vs Denver for the three months prior to that game you lost every time. The Broncos won on the ML 11 games in a row prior to that upset.
The BCS Championship game is another example. Can anyone honestly say there was any value in taking ND on the money line? Alabama -280 or -300 was the value play. ND with the big plus price was the sucker bet of the year.
Last edited by BeatingBaseball; 02-10-13 at 09:58 AM.
This has gotten downright ludicrous.
Moneyline vs spread is a very interesting field, and only people with level head can appreciate the advantages and disadvantages of each one. Sadly, many people have prejudices such as "never bet ML chalk, juice will kill you", "ML faves are sure money", "ML live dogs are golden", etc. As always, it is all relative and a -600 may be a bargain or a steep price, just as -10.5 are.
The spread is apparently neat, probabilities are about 50/50, so it is easy to gauge if you are a winner or not. OTOH, the spread is an arbitrary point, and teams usually try to maximize the chance for a straight up win, often losing a deserved ATS win. We all know the basketball late fouling, the football "prevent" defense, resting first team, and so many backdoor covers. As optional said, "the line is just an extra variable to take into account with your capping". You are in fact predicting the median of possible outcomes.
Moneylines have the advantage of both teams trying to maximize the chance to win, making them less "noisy". However, there is a price to pay increasing the variance on both chalk and dog bets.
The distribution curve of the results of spread bets is almost a normal bell. The moneylines have a skewed bell curve, to the left for dogs, and to the right for chalks. The unskewed bell has an inherently lower variance. The dog bets have a downward tendency, compensated for a higher right tail (a chance for a big win). OTOH, the chalk bets have a growth tendency, with a chance for a disaster.
The dog MLs have typically a higher +EV. If you find a +500 fair-price bet offered at +600, you are getting a +16.7% EV. But a chalk paying -500 on a -600 fair price is only +2.86% EV
However, we know that +EV is not the important number, but +EG. And here the upward trend of chalky MLs compensate for the lack of sheer +EV. In the previous paragraph cases, the -500 chalk has a +0.213% EG, almost the same of the +600 dog +0.222% EG.
There is also a psychological aspect in favor of betting chalky MLs: It makes easier the daily grind, having most days as net winners, even if mixed with a few terrible days. I suppose it is hard to bet a few great +EV ML dogs, just to end on red most of the time. Of course, I am not saying it is good to bet chalk MLs just because the upward trend, you must have the +EG.
Getting out of a ML position is easier than a spread. You may lock-in a win or loss just buying the opposite side. However, the spread movement makes hard to do the same. You may end buying/selling points at bad price, or else rooting for a longshot middle or exposed to it.
Getting back to spread vs MLs, there are cases when the decision is clear. In games with small spreads, the need of most books for having all prices rounded to 5 cents results in misprices of a few cents. The 1 has little value on CBB, yet you see it sometimes valued at 10 cents difference between spread and ML. Given a +1-110 or ML+100, the ML is the easy choice. Conversely, -1-110 is better than ML-120
And you should not fall into the trap "these few scores almost never happens, so playing -200 is not worth it". Lets call it the Sawyer trap. A -200 ML is usually -4.5 or -5. If fave wins by 1-2-3-4 (and maybe 5) 16% of times, the ML is worth it. You have to account for expected total score, team variability, late fouling and defense, etc. Discarding the ML offhand is short sighted.
So, choosing between from ML to spread is exactly the same as buying or selling half-points. If the price is right, go for it. The ML has higher variance, the spread has the backdoor cover issue. I am happy of having two choices, both are useful weapons on the arsenal.
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i prefer ml to spreads for the following reason. I find it easier to asses a team's chances of winning than their chances of covering a spread. Once you have your assesment you can then check the actual ml to see where the value lies be it dog or fave and use kelly to see how much value is there.
The problem is..you can't make money by betting heavy favourites. You can't make a fortune by betting 1.40-1.50 (-250, -200) odds. You can be sure about it. I know this truth very well and I'm deadly sure about it. How? Because I did the opposite, picked large dogs on Moneyline and made a fortune this way. I'm a contrarian. Where there's a hopeless underdog, I'm there. The result? 6-Figures bankroll.
People who are betting 1.30-1.40 odds are still broke and their lifestyle sucks
People like easy money. People think there's a safety in numbers. People think 1.30-1.40 priced favourites are banker bets. People are wrong. %99.99 of sports bettors are wrong and they're feeding sportsbooks. Sad but true.
Please keep betting favourites and yes, bet them on Moneyline! -300, -400, Oh Yeah, Lay The Wood baby!
So I can get better odds for my dogs
Last edited by Sawyer; 02-21-13 at 04:58 PM.
You seem to be diggin' yourself a little too much in here, Sawyer. Everyone knows it's not that easy. Even you.
I believe the social psychologists describe what you are exhibiting as "illusory superiority." They say that people who are predisposed to it often have self esteem issues. Those who are truly self confident find no reason to belittle others. You may want to check it out. Good Luck to you.
Given the same +EV, a favorite ML bet is preferable to an underdog ML bet for the simple reason that it loses less often, thus (a) the bankruptcy risk is lower and (b) the bankroll grows faster.
Last edited by HUY; 02-22-13 at 03:27 PM.
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