Originally posted on 01/04/2013:

Quote Originally Posted by Sawyer View Post
You can't make money by betting favourites on ML since heavy chalk will kill you. Pick ML if you like dog to win straight up. Always lay points if you like the favourite. If you have any doubts about if favourite will cover, then don't bet.

Point spread is -4,5 and you lay only -105. If yo+u pick ML, you pay approximately -200. When converted to decimal odds,

-200 is 1.50, You need %66.66+ in order to make profit.
-105 is 1,952, You need just %51.23+ in order to make profit.

So how often this favourite will win by 1-2-3-4 points? Not worth of laying -200 for sure..
With all due respect, that is not quite correct. It's all about +EV and +EG. Favorite ml's, on average, might be slightly worse bets than spread on same game due to skewed odds and higher juice on money lines, but given the same edge, you should always prefer favorite ml over the spread. Less volatility and higher expected growth of bankroll by playing the more probable outcome. Nothing wrong betting big dogs either, but that increases variance.