1. 04-05-09 11:43 AM #36
    Justin7
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    Quote Originally Posted by pico View Post
    what do you mean hit the sweet spot 27%?
    The sweet spot means that the extra points changed the outcome.

    If you lay -110 at a normal spread, the break even is 52.4. If you lay -241 for the extra 6 points, the break even is 70.7%. If those extra 6 points change the outcome more than 18.3%, teasing is better than straight betting. If it changes the outcome more than 20.7% (i.e. hits the sweet spot) you can bet it blindly.
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  2. 04-05-09 01:58 PM #37
    coldhardfacts
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    Quote Originally Posted by Justin7 View Post
    The sweet spot means that the extra points changed the outcome.

    If you lay -110 at a normal spread, the break even is 52.4. If you lay -241 for the extra 6 points, the break even is 70.7%. If those extra 6 points change the outcome more than 18.3%, teasing is better than straight betting. If it changes the outcome more than 20.7% (i.e. hits the sweet spot) you can bet it blindly.
    I guess I'm missing something. The extra 6 points increased your chances of winning any particular bet by 23%. But you're laying more than 100% more in juice on every bet (-241 vs -110). How can this be profitable? I think you're assuming that any bet you won straight you'd also win in a teaser bet, but this is certainly not the case.
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  3. 04-05-09 03:36 PM #38
    LT Profits
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    Seems you guys are making this more complicated then it needs to be.

    Let's start with the premise that you are a 50/50 capper. Also realize that Wong teasers (teasers that go through both the 3 and the 7) increase your win % by 25%. Those are the ONLY teasers i am talking about here.

    Now the coin flip capper should expect to win 75% on any individual teaser leg. Thus, his odds of hitting a Wong teaser should be 56.25% (.75 x .75). At that rate, the odds you would need to break even are -128, so -120 or less is +EV.
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  4. 04-05-09 05:12 PM #39
    coldhardfacts
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Seems you guys are making this more complicated then it needs to be.

    Let's start with the premise that you are a 50/50 capper. Also realize that Wong teasers (teasers that go through both the 3 and the 7) increase your win % by 25%. Those are the ONLY teasers i am talking about here.

    Now the coin flip capper should expect to win 75% on any individual teaser leg. Thus, his odds of hitting a Wong teaser should be 56.25% (.75 x .75). At that rate, the odds you would need to break even are -128, so -120 or less is +EV.
    Please forgive me, since my math skills pale in comparison to most on this forum. (I barely passed high school algebra.)

    But it seems to me what you're saying in reality is that Wong teasers increase your win percentage 50%, not 25%. Say the flipper wins 4 out of every 8 games. A 25% increase would mean that he's now winning 5 of every 8 games, which is 62.5%. Which in turn means that the odds of hitting a Wong teaser are 39.06% (62.5% x 62.5%).

    Now, maybe you meant to say that Wong teasers increase your win percentage by 50%, which is consistent with your analysis. And maybe they do increase your percentage by that amount. I'm dubious, but I have no figures to back me up.
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  5. 04-05-09 05:22 PM #40
    Pancho sanza
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    When he says 25 % , he means from 50 % (laying -110) to 75 % with the extra 6 points.
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  6. 04-05-09 08:05 PM #41
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by coldhardfacts View Post
    Please forgive me, since my math skills pale in comparison to most on this forum. (I barely passed high school algebra.)

    But it seems to me what you're saying in reality is that Wong teasers increase your win percentage 50%, not 25%. Say the flipper wins 4 out of every 8 games. A 25% increase would mean that he's now winning 5 of every 8 games, which is 62.5%. Which in turn means that the odds of hitting a Wong teaser are 39.06% (62.5% x 62.5%).

    Now, maybe you meant to say that Wong teasers increase your win percentage by 50%, which is consistent with your analysis. And maybe they do increase your percentage by that amount. I'm dubious, but I have no figures to back me up.
    I apologize, I should have said BY 25%. My bad.
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  7. 04-05-09 08:07 PM #42
    LT Profits
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    Actually I did say BY 25%, but I meant it as an absolute and not a relative.
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  8. 04-05-09 08:40 PM #43
    LT Profits
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    Since 1985, NFL Favorites of -7.5 to -8.5 and NFL Underdogs of +1.5 to +2.5 are a combined 618-599-12, 50.8% ATS.

    Teasing those same teams 6 points improved the record to 921-303-5, 75.2%.
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  9. 04-06-09 01:49 AM #44
    donjuan
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    1. Yes, NFL and select NCAAF.
    2. Profit without the teasers would be negative.

    Beating NFL teasers does not require any handicapping. It's so easy, perhaps Geico will eventually do an ad on it.
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