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Question for successful Teaser Players (if there are any)
I've always considered these a pure sucker bet. But that doesn't mean I'm right, or that they can't be profitable for some people.
I'm just curious, is anyone a long term successful teaser player in either hoops or foots? And, if so, have you analyzed whether or not your profit would be greater or smaller if you had just bet every team in your teaser plays straight up against the spread?
Nicely profitable, NFL only.
No to the analysis part, not necessary since I know the 6 points Im buying are costing me less than what they should.
Glad you're profitable, but I don't understand the second part of your answer. You're buying 6 points, but you have to hit both games. If you haven't done analysis, how do you know that you wouldn't be winning a greater percentage just betting all of your teaser teams straight up?Originally Posted by Pancho sanza
Nicely profitable, NFL only.
No to the analysis part, not necessary since I know the 6 points Im buying are costing me less than what they should.
If you know what the points are worth, its simple.
To find out what they are worth, check against a large database of games.
NFL teasers that cross the 3 and 7 are +EV long term.
Not that I doubt your word, but any statistics to back that up? And do you mean both ends of your teaser play are crossing a 3 or 7?
Yes, I know what the points are worth, relatively. But the fact remains, you have to hit TWO games instead of one, you have to bet both sides with the same shop (thus limiting your line shopping options), and the juice is generally greater than for straight plays.
If you know what the points are worth, then surely you can figure out the odds of winning a 2 game parlay with the extra points. And talking about the "juice" on a teaser is pretty much nonsense, beyond the obvious "You're paying more than -110 per game for getting 6 extra points".
As to your first statement, yes, I can figure out what points are worth, and what the odds of winning a two game parlay are. And, frankly, the way the odds compute, teasers are a poor play.
As to your second point, could you please explain in English why my point is nonsense? If I'm going to lay -110 on a game, you can be sure I am getting much the best points-wise. If not, in this day and age there is absolutely no reason to lay anything close to -110. Except if you're betting teasers. Which, imo, are sucker bets.
But, again, I could be wrong.
WTF does juice on a teaser even mean? I bet a 3-teamer at +180, what's the juice? If you mean the breakeven percentage of a leg at about -244, ok, but why would you mention that- obviously 6 points come with a price.
Sometimes it is not. While playing at the same reduced juice book, be it Pinny or 5Dimes, when you play "exotics" such as parlays or teasers, the line those "exotics" is calculated from is worse then the best (reduced) line you can get at a very same book. So, when the OP is assessing teasers vs. straight bets the juice is not irrelevant. Your point that this is all about probabilities and the lines is very valid. I am just trying to show that the juice does not come out of nowhere.
Last edited by Data; 04-03-09 at 07:15 PM.
Your'e paying about -262 for each leg of the teaser (2 teams at -262 pays -110)
Assuming this is a 2 teams 6 point teaser paying -110, compare what you think the extra 6 points are worth to see if you have +ev.
Crossing the 3 or the 7 by playing 6-point teasers on faves between -7.5 and -8.5 and dogs between +1.5 and +2.5 adds about 25% to your NFL winning percentage, so even a 50/50 coin flip capper would have a 75% probability of winning each leg. Thus he would hit the teaser about 56.25% (.75 * .75) of the time, which would be good enough to profit even if you are laying -120.
This is precisely why you rarely see Pinnacle post NFL lines between -1.5 and -2.5 or between -7.5 and -8.5, instead playing with the juice on -1 and -9.
So you can blindly bet this and in the long run you will hit ~56% ? Smaller shops allow this to happen?
Anyhoooo, I asked a very simple question and still haven't gotten a straight answer.
Does anyone win consistently betting teasers? And if so, have you determined analytically that you've done better than you would have done had you bet every team straight at the best available line/odds? So far, only Pancho has answered affirmatively, and only in the NFL. But he couldn't definitively answer the second part of the question.
I've won on NFL teasers all 3 years I've bet them. I don't know how well those games did ATS. My data suggest that if I'd played the same strategy since 1994, I would have hit close to coinflip ATS (meaning losing to the juice) and won on teasers.
OK. Great. My guess is that your winning is due more to your successful handicapping over the past 3 years than your playing teasers. But, if your data suggests otherwise maybe I'm wrong. I won't bet teasers this year personally, but I'm going to track what my teaser results would have been compared to my actual results. I'll have to hit more than 2.5 times my normal winning percentage to deem it successful, which makes me extremely dubious, but we'll see.
Just curious, did you ever bet teasers on college foots, NBA, or NCAABB?
don't think you want to bet teasers for all your standard bets. If you intend to check that I can make a prediction now. Betting teasers would take a different approach.
The beauty of NFL teasers (and select NCAAF, where the strategy is a bit more complex) is you don't have to handicap. You see the right line at the right time, you tease it. You have the best of it, end of story.
I don't know of any handicappers that are expected to win MORE than 55% of their NFL bets. I don't know of any sharp teaser players that win LESS than 55% of their plays (using 2-teamers as the standard).
Teasers are still the easiest money to find lying in piles.
I actually win around 55% of my NFL bets. The point is, though, that I'm laying probably an average juice of 3%-4% so I only have to hit just under 52% to be successful.
But I think I see what you're saying. With teasers, it's more about handicapping lines than handicapping games. (Although without the latter I don't see how you can be too successful at the former.) Presumably, though, most straight bettors, myself included, jump on lines when I think they're advantageous as well. Sometimes I make the right decision, sometimes I make the wrong decision and a more advantageous line becomes available after I bet. The net effect on my overall profitability is minimal.
Don't get me wrong - if you can find money lying in piles betting teasers, more power to you. I just find it hard to believe that you wouldn't be at least as successful if you bet all the games straight at the best odds/spreads available.
If a bettor has little to no advantage over the line under certain conditions he can exploit teasers pricing inefficiencies. The more advantage the bettor has the more he is going to be inclined to sell points (take the dogs on the ml, play pleasers) instead of buying them as in betting teasers. That is because the farther his "true" line from the posted line, the points around the posted line becomes less valuable for that bettor. For a Kelly bettor who quantifies his edge for every game he bets the decision on choosing a bet (side/ml/teaser etc) is trivial as it comes down to just comparing a few numbers.
If I understand what you're saying correctly, a side can go from a non-play to a play with the additional points (or odds). I'll grant you that is often true. The problem is, at least from my standpoint, the 6 points really isn't a huge factor in determining whether or not a play is ultimately successful. More times than not the extra six points have no bearing on whether or not you win. So the six points isn't enough to compensate for the fact that you have to find and hit TWO such plays in order for the wager to be successful, or the fact that you have to win a greater overall percentage of bets - due to the increased juice - to ensure profitability.
That is a common point about the teasers. Yes, I agree with it but that was not the point in my post.
Too bad for you.from my standpoint, the 6 points really isn't a huge factor in determining whether or not a play is ultimately successful
Too bad for everyone.
Of the 11 NFL playoff games last year, an additional 6 points would have impacted 5 of the games. Which means that of the 22 possible sides, the 6 points would have impacted the outcome of the bet only 27% of the time. So 73% of the plays were winners or losers regardless if the player bet straight or took the 6 points in a teaser.
If I knew 27% of the games would have the outcome decided, I would blindly tease that.
Start thinking... If you are laying -241 for a 1-team 6-point teaser, and the market price on the normal game line is fair (i.e. 50/50 chance of covering), how often must the teased points change the outcome to make it profitable? A lot less than 27%...
Read my post above, teasing through 3 and 7 increases your win% by 25%, so the 27% in the playoffs is not uncommon. That is a significant percentage, so I would not use the term "only".
I never worked teasers because I work hard to get my median difference away from the actual result to be under 10 points. Since I rarely do that, getting 6 pts and having two teams to make a teaser bet come in cannot be good. Straight ML or pt sides will do better in the long run.
I would normally agree, but the lone exception is the Wong NFL Teaser.
for some reason i have problem following the responses from Justin and LT
so coldhardfacts is saying, 73% of the games were not effected by the 6 pts. that means 73% of the games is still a coin flip...let's say it is 50/50. that means if you do a blind tease 1 team, your win percentage for playoff games should be 73/2+27=63.5%
ok, percentage conversion for -241 1 team 6pt tease should be 70.68%. that is chalkier than the 63.5% i came up with the NFL playoffs.
What kind of math is this?
LT thinks the 27% playoff non-issue 6pt tease results is better than coldhardfacts's 25% calculation. then i shall use the percentage i came up earlier for a 1 leg 6pt tease, which is 63.5%. for a 2 teamer 6pter, that is 63.5*63.5=40.32%. you're gonna be burried even betting with -110 line (not to mention -120).
Last edited by pico; 04-05-09 at 08:08 AM.
for some reason, my common sense tells me this is a very bad idea.
Perhaps I should clarify. If I knew the 6 teaser points hit the sweet spot 27%, I would do it blindly. From his original post, I'm not sure if he meant that, or 6 points either way would change it.
LT Profits: you are right. I just went back and calced certain Wongs and I can see where they could work in NFL sides only...or possibly CFB. Maybe I'll tease a bit now and then. Thanks.
his post just mean 5 out of 22 games in the NFL playoffs, you could win no matter which side you tease. he said nothing about wong teaser or 3,7 magic numbers.
what do you mean hit the sweet spot 27%?
I will show a profit on NFL teasers almost every year. Sides only and cross the key numbers. In fact it showed so much of a profit in the past that's why online books changed the payouts for the two team 6 point teasers.
Well I didn't mean to say that I changed the way the payouts changed. But players in the know about teasers were hitting so well they had to change them.
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