[Boner_18]

Hey all. I started betting props part way through NFL season and have had good luck normalizing player yardage against defensive stats. With NFL season quickly coming to a close I am looking for the next winner.

I noticed that there are NBA player totals at most books and have been normalizing them against defensive points allowed. So far I have not seen many bettable lines doing this and I'm wondering if there are any prop players will shed some light on what stats they look for and what they use to normalize these when NFL is out of season.

Thanks.

[Justin7]

Hey all. I started betting props part way through NFL season and have had good luck normalizing player yardage against defensive stats. With NFL season quickly coming to a close I am looking for the next winner.

I noticed that there are NBA player totals at most books and have been normalizing them against defensive points allowed. So far I have not seen many bettable lines doing this and I'm wondering if there are any prop players will shed some light on what stats they look for and what they use to normalize these when NFL is out of season.

Thanks.

I don't know how all books set their lines... But one common mistake they make when normalizing is using offensive and defensive data for the whole season.

If you want to pick off the easy props, look for teams that have changed a couple starters. Once you have 10 games with the new line up, the moving average for that team using 10 games will be better than using season averages.

Another thing you'll often see... There might be a change in coaching philosophy. During the first 20 games, 1/3 of a team's shots are 3-pt. Mid season they drop to 1/5. Of course the average is wrong - you take every under on 3-pts.

Look for odd changes in averages versus the last 10 games.