[ABanks]

I know in baseball the closing line is more accurate than the opening line but is it possible a line exists that is more accurate than the closing line? What about the line after open but before the books raise their overnight limits. This would basically be the opening line which then gets adjusted by the "100 dollar geniuses" but has not yet been bet into by the public or those looking to bet large amounts. Anyone have any thoughts on this?

[chunk]

Interesting question. I've often wondered about the same thing for basketball lines. I've tried to time markets in the past and had the same amount of luck as I had timing the stock market.....not much.

[suicidekings]

I know in baseball the closing line is more accurate than the opening line but is it possible a line exists that is more accurate than the closing line? What about the line after open but before the books raise their overnight limits. This would basically be the opening line which then gets adjusted by the "100 dollar geniuses" but has not yet been bet into by the public or those looking to bet large amounts. Anyone have any thoughts on this?

It really depends on too many variables to give a blanket answer. Some lines are heavily slanted due to public perception from the start while others are sharp to begin with. Maybe Roy Halladay is coming off his worst start of the season, his health is being questioned, and is a -225 fave against the Nationals. The market immediately takes the "value" on a +215 dog, and depreciates it down to +180/-190 when in reality Halladay has owned the Nats in the past, is 100% healthy, and a fair line is more like -260 for this matchup. The line moves down overnight and during the day and then closes back towards the Phillies finishing at -200/+190 before the first pitch.

In this scenario, the opening line was actually the most accurate one, and the market moved based on speculation and public opinion, however I could draw up a counter-example where the line movement actually did move it closer to the fair value for the game. In others, the line could open at -120, while the true value lies at -135, however market activity could drive it in the right direction but too far, so it closes at -145. The numbers are exaggerated for the purpose of discussion, but all three of these scenarios happen. I would say that in general the market does work efficiently and lines are fairly sharp, but there are obviously exceptions.

Unless you're generating your own numbers and you have a high degree of confidence in them, you're not going to be able to have an good read on when a line is becoming more or less accurate due to market activity.

[illfuuptn]

Closing lines are definitely more efficient on AVERAGE but there's definitely times where they aren't. Read the above post to get a glimpse of those scenarios. And, fwiw, anyone who thinks strictly betting closing numbers is impossible is just kidding themselves(especially in sports other than the NFL). It's just that you are losing value AND extra plays by not betting early lines. But when you make it big-time you'll sacrifice 2% of edge to be able to bet 200k instead of 10k.

[x] I'm not big-time

[illfuuptn]

It really depends on too many variables to give a blanket answer. Some lines are heavily slanted due to public perception from the start while others are sharp to begin with. Maybe Roy Halladay is coming off his worst start of the season, his health is being questioned, and is a -225 fave against the Nationals. The market immediately takes the "value" on a +215 dog, and depreciates it down to +180/-190 when in reality Halladay has owned the Nats in the past, is 100% healthy, and a fair line is more like -260 for this matchup. The line moves down overnight and during the day and then closes back towards the Phillies finishing at -200/+190 before the first pitch.

In this scenario, the opening line was actually the most accurate one, and the market moved based on speculation and public opinion, however I could draw up a counter-example where the line movement actually did move it closer to the fair value for the game. In others, the line could open at -120, while the true value lies at -135, however market activity could drive it in the right direction but too far, so it closes at -145. The numbers are exaggerated for the purpose of discussion, but all three of these scenarios happen. I would say that in general the market does work efficiently and lines are fairly sharp, but there are obviously exceptions.

Unless you're generating your own numbers and you have a high degree of confidence in them, you're not going to be able to have an good read on when a line is becoming more or less accurate due to market activity.

great post btw

[tomwar]

The closing line is always more efficient than the opening line or any other offered for that matter. Anyone who argues other wise is wrong.

[suicidekings]

The closing line is always more efficient than the opening line or any other offered for that matter. Anyone who argues other wise is wrong.

Efficient in terms of the market deciding it's final price, yes. But that's far from saying that the movement from the opener to the final price is always predictive of the outcome of the event.

[That Foreign Guy]

In general the closing line will be the most accurate because it incorporates all available information including private information (through the voting process of money).

Will it 100% always be the most accurate? No. But you're looking at either an unbalanced rush of money close to kickoff time that for whatever reason is not balanced by sharp money on the other side, or a fundamental misunderstanding by almost all market participants.

The movement from open to close is not predictive of anything (although all else being equal I'd rather bet on the side that has just shortened than the side that has just lengthened).

[tukkk]

if somebody has an opinion about soccer, would be nice
im averaging 4 cents beating the closing line and last 40 bets are 10-30 shiit, im so confused right now

[JustinBieber]

Soccer closing lines are more efficient, that isn't an opinion. Stop crying about a 40 bet sample size.

[illfuuptn]

this^

[tomwar]

Efficient in terms of the market deciding it's final price, yes. But that's far from saying that the movement from the opener to the final price is always predictive of the outcome of the event.

You're right it won't help predict the winner but that's irrelevant because lines reflect probabilities not the outcome.

[louis]

The closing line is a compromise between public opinion and what the correct line should be.

[tukkk]

The closing line is a compromise between public opinion and what the correct line should be.

that word there is definetly wrong

[Thremp]

You're right it won't help predict the winner but that's irrelevant because lines reflect probabilities not the outcome.

Yes.

[byronbb]

Well Pinnacle was arbable at close with Matchbook for the Sharks-Canucks game a few days ago, so yes it can happen.

[TheMoneyShot]

ABanks - It's all in how you develop your own system actually. Some people love to pound baseball favorites right when the line opens up for tomorrow's games. Some people love to pound the dog just before the opening pitch. Possibly you are thinking too hard about this? We all wish we had a crystal ball... but the art in any strategy is developing your confidence and what you believe in. If it's making you money... then you are doing your job. If you are losing more money... than you need to abandon the game plan and start fresh with another. My first 3 years of sports wagering I was in the negative each year... lost an average of 12k each year. My last 7 years I'm in the plus... I believe it's all about your confidence level. Believing in yourself. Never doubt what's been working... and when you feel you've lost control on your rhythm... take a time out.... burn off stress working out... running... whatever... then regroup and take a look at your past plays that you did well on. Remember and focus why you did well on them. What happened during the game etc.

As for baseball... it's the hardest sport to cap. And if people say they know what they are doing in baseball.... I don't believe them. (My systems just don't work for MLB.) I'm sure you can make a little bit of profit taking a few steps (not worth the headaches or your time)... but there are so many pitfalls to lose your bankroll. Now the best sports are NCAA football and the NFL... or NBA. That's when you can really sting the books. Usually after the NBA playoffs are over I take a vacation... then wait until the NFL opens up.

[Peregrine Stoop]

OP, it's possible as it's not a perfectly efficient market. You got a lot of work to do to gain a consistent edge on it.
I've come across the rare Peter Lynch type that does... they make a lot of ******* coin. I, myself, have not.

[chunk]

You will probably find it in the 50% graveyard where most everything else is found.

[WendysRox]

Efficient in terms of the market deciding it's final price, yes. But that's far from saying that the movement from the opener to the final price is always predictive of the outcome of the event.

[WendysRox]

You're right it won't help predict the winner but that's irrelevant because lines reflect probabilities not the outcome.

IMHO, lines reflect the market's perception, not the actual probability of an outcome...

[tomwar]

IMHO, lines reflect the market's perception, not the actual probability of an outcome...

If you actually bothered to run the numbers on historic closing lines and corresponding results over large random samples you'd realize how idiotic your comment is.

[ThaddeusB]

I would actually argue that there is a line more efficient than the close. Perhaps 5-10mins before close or so is the most efficient, on average. The reason I say that is the line occasionally moves dramatically in the last few minutes simply because books want to balance their position, not because of any new info. However, this is just a theory that I haven't tested, so I can't say it is definitely true that T-10minutes beats the close.

[CHUBNUT]

If you look at all the different ratings given in the prediction tracker you will see that after 2 months of baseball not one is showing a profit. ask any of these people about how their predictions are made and they will tell you that they are more than expert in all phases of handicapping models and that said model shows a profit. the fact that none of them are showing a profit shows you how sharp the bookmakers lines are, opening or closing.

I've said it before, you could do worse than buy a book on the human brain. ( Brainwashing by Taylor is a good one) It will teach how not to kid yourself while gambling, something that comes natural to your mind.

[chunk]

If you look at all the different ratings given in the prediction tracker you will see that after 2 months of baseball not one is showing a profit. ask any of these people about how their predictions are made and they will tell you that they are more than expert in all phases of handicapping models and that said model shows a profit. the fact that none of them are showing a profit shows you how sharp the bookmakers lines are, opening or closing.

I've said it before, you could do worse than buy a book on the human brain. ( Brainwashing by Taylor is a good one) It will teach how not to kid yourself while gambling, something that comes natural to your mind.

[Edward-RAS]

A possible exception to consider would be to ignore the last move before close, if it comes in last 15-20 minutes of the market. This would eliminate some of the noise created by square/impulse and hedge/layoff action in the later stages of the market. For example, if a line is sitting at -4, and goes to -4.5 a few minutes before tip, I would argue that -4 is more accurate in most cases, at least in the college markets that I follow.

In some cases there is worthy information that becomes available in the last 15-20 minutes, but that is more the exception than the norm.

[durito]

Taiwanese?

[Bluehorseshoe]

A possible exception to consider would be to ignore the last move before close, if it comes in last 15-20 minutes of the market. This would eliminate some of the noise created by square/impulse and hedge/layoff action in the later stages of the market. For example, if a line is sitting at -4, and goes to -4.5 a few minutes before tip, I would argue that -4 is more accurate in most cases, at least in the college markets that I follow.

In some cases there is worthy information that becomes available in the last 15-20 minutes, but that is more the exception than the norm.

I think you also have to factor in which books are moving the line late. When a book that doesn't move lines back and forth as much as the others moves a line late, I tend to go with that move.

[underthe total]

You're right it won't help predict the winner but that's irrelevant because lines reflect probabilities not the outcome.

nice

[lumpy19]

A possible exception to consider would be to ignore the last move before close, if it comes in last 15-20 minutes of the market. This would eliminate some of the noise created by square/impulse and hedge/layoff action in the later stages of the market. For example, if a line is sitting at -4, and goes to -4.5 a few minutes before tip, I would argue that -4 is more accurate in most cases, at least in the college markets that I follow.

In some cases there is worthy information that becomes available in the last 15-20 minutes, but that is more the exception than the norm.

Maybe I'm missing something but as the day moves along and limits get increased you have more money coming in shaping the line. Wouldn't a move in the last 5-10 min be the most important move because it requires the most money to move? If that's not the case what's causing the late move?

[Wrecktangle]

In College Football, we've have years where the opening line is better on average, and others where the closing line has been. No clear pattern over the last 10 or so years.

[evo34]

In College Football, we've have years where the opening line is better on average, and others where the closing line has been. No clear pattern over the last 10 or so years.

According to http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/ncaaresults.php, the closing line has has a lower average error (more accurate) than the opening line every season since 2005.

[ProphetofProfit]

....and no-one beats the closing line.

Can't we settle this once and for all with raw data? If someone cared to do the analysis using Pinnacle odds over a large enough sample, separating odds into 'opening' 'closing' and time intevals between, posted it, they'd rack up a trillion betpoints.

[Thremp]

Or perhaps they umm.... bet money based on this idea? And win money? Then spend it on shit? I'm sure there is someone who can take a photo of a car or smth they bought with money based on BTCL. Just conjecture of course.

[That Foreign Guy]

I could post a photo of a car I claim is mine and on the Internet that's at least as good.