Originally posted on 05/23/2011:

In general the closing line will be the most accurate because it incorporates all available information including private information (through the voting process of money).

Will it 100% always be the most accurate? No. But you're looking at either an unbalanced rush of money close to kickoff time that for whatever reason is not balanced by sharp money on the other side, or a fundamental misunderstanding by almost all market participants.

The movement from open to close is not predictive of anything (although all else being equal I'd rather bet on the side that has just shortened than the side that has just lengthened).