1. 10-14-10 06:25 PM #1
    Machine Choice
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    Machine Choice Early Bird Report: Cincinnati at Louisville

    Machine Plays: 10-2
    Current Streak: 9-0

    Lousiville will see the toughest defense they've played (by far) tomorrow night. They will come in overconfident after pounding Memphis, and they will get a wake-up call in a big way. Cinci coach Butch Jones took the Fresno St loss and completely rebuilt this team in a matter of four weeks, shuffling every OL and replacing three starters. The result: a near win against Oklahoma and a tough game vs NC State on the road (without Cinci's star RB).

    Now factor in the fact that Cinci's RB Pead is finally healthy. What has he done since returning? 169 YARDS vs Oklahoma and 197 YARDS vs Miami-OH (who is a far better team than Memphis, BTW). Look for him to go ******* ape-shit vs a Louisville defense that has surrendered 148 rushing yards per game against second and third-rate competition! Pead has opened the game up for QB Collaros, who is now hitting everything in sight to the tune of 12 TDs and 1 INT (305 yards against Oklahoma).

    Let's not forget what happened last year: the same two QBs faced-off. The result: Cinci 41-10. Granted, Louisville has more offense this year, but I'm not ready just yet to hand the baton to a Louisville club who struggled to get past Eastern Kentucky. Louisville relies on the rush, but Cinci only gives up 85 rushing ypg. Mismatch! And Cinci has faced far better competition.

    ** Now the money factor: Louisville is without their best WR Beaumont **

    Louisville is 2-10 ATS vs the Big East for a reason: their talent hasn't matched their hype.

    CINCI -2.5
    Last edited by Machine Choice; 10-14-10 at 09:17 PM.
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  2. 10-14-10 06:33 PM #2
    DangerousOne
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    Good Stuff **
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  3. 10-14-10 06:36 PM #3
    chiliv5
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    i really like this play..... l'ville is trash.... real trash.
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  4. 10-14-10 06:39 PM #4
    PickCityz
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    Good stuff, like your write-ups.
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  5. 10-14-10 08:11 PM #5
    Machine Choice
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    May need to update the record sooner than I thought
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  6. 10-14-10 08:21 PM #6
    CntryBoy
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    Good stuff once again... I like Cinci here as well.
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  7. 10-14-10 08:35 PM #7
    Machine Choice
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    Record updated. Transform and Roll Out!
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  8. 10-14-10 08:36 PM #8
    aman86
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    What happened to Beaumont? Regardless im expecting a shoot out and will take the live home dog here in this case, ibeasnt as impressed with cincys game against ou as most were they were never really in that one
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  9. 10-14-10 08:49 PM #9
    Machine Choice
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    Quote Originally Posted by aman86 View Post
    What happened to Beaumont? Regardless im expecting a shoot out and will take the live home dog here in this case, ibeasnt as impressed with cincys game against ou as most were they were never really in that one
    I hope you realize how different Cinci is with Pead in. He did not play in the NC State game.
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  10. 10-14-10 08:50 PM #10
    Machine Choice
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    Louisville team webpage:

    • WR Doug Beaumont is still rehabbing his knee injury. At his Monday press conference, coach Charlie Strong said “There is nobody trying to get back harder than Doug Beaumont. He wants to play and is doing everything possible to get back.” Still, it is unlikely that he will be ready to go this week.
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  11. 10-14-10 09:06 PM #11
    BathingApe
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    Been really liking your writeups Machine. Will be following you on this play tomorrow as well.
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  12. 10-14-10 09:12 PM #12
    gameday10
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    Nice run Machine. Love reading write-ups on people who cap games. I don't have much time because of work so I rely on people like you and others. Feels weird if I take Cincy, that will be all 4 favorites for the weekday games. Cincy, I will probably be on though.
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  13. 10-14-10 09:13 PM #13
    onetrickpony
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    machine ur dead on cant believe the line is so low
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  14. 10-14-10 09:15 PM #14
    sixpackdan
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    I'm on cincy as well **. Thanks for your work with the write ups. Following you on this one.
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  15. 10-14-10 09:53 PM #15
    aman86
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    Thank for the info i will reconsider my selection to maybe a no play. Unfortunatley i haven't seen the cards in action yet this year, keep up the good work
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  16. 10-14-10 11:13 PM #16
    Blue_Chips
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    Let's get it!
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  17. 10-14-10 11:19 PM #17
    Romanov
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    Also: Louisville is the public's underdog right now which spells good things for Cinci backers.

    edit: nevermind. shit has changed since i last checked. its wise to book em now
    Last edited by Romanov; 10-14-10 at 11:26 PM.
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  18. 10-14-10 11:43 PM #18
    TPowell
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    Louisville backup RB Vic Anderson is also out for this game. He usually gets 10-15 carries a game and started last year
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  19. 10-14-10 11:46 PM #19
    Boddhissatva
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    great write up...I really don't see how louiseville wins this let alone comes close.
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  20. 10-14-10 11:51 PM #20
    Boddhissatva
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    the only thing that is troubling me about this bet is louisville's performance against oregon st at oregon st. they did really well considering being 20.5 dogs.

    I didn't see the game...does anyone have insight on this?

    and one other note...Cinci is 0 -2 away.
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  21. 10-14-10 11:56 PM #21
    BigDofBA
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    Quote Originally Posted by Boddhissatva View Post
    the only thing that is troubling me about this bet is louisville's performance against oregon st at oregon st. they did really well considering being 20.5 dogs. I didn't see the game...does anyone have insight on this? and one other note...Cinci is 0 -2 away.
    That's exactly what I was thinking. They looked decent against Oregon St.

    At first glance Cincy was my play but after winning easily with UCF and K-State, I think I might take Louisville or not play the game.
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  22. 10-15-10 12:03 AM #22
    TPowell
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    guys UC is terrible. Miami (Ohio) is pretty comparable to Memphis and Oklahoma IS NOT the Oklahoma of past years. They and Texas are drastically overrated. Your kidding yourself if u think Cincy is still a solid team. Louisville is short on depth however, but energized by first year coach Charlie Strong who has looked pretty good in big games outside of the first half against UK. I would lean Louisville slightly but no play
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  23. 10-15-10 12:08 AM #23
    Boddhissatva
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigDofBA View Post
    That's exactly what I was thinking. They looked decent against Oregon St.

    At first glance Cincy was my play but after winning easily with UCF and K-State, I think I might take Louisville or not play the game.
    same here...i jumped on ucf and k state...thinking, whoa...that was almost too easy.

    well...it's too late. i already made a small wager on cincinatti.
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  24. 10-15-10 12:34 AM #24
    pokerwhiz90
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    rlm doesnt make sense, i like louisville who has a higher ranked offense and defense and are playing at home.. both teams will be overconfident and i see this one being pretty high in scoring
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  25. 10-15-10 12:36 AM #25
    rybread9
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    I like it. Nice report.
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  26. 10-15-10 12:53 AM #26
    zephyr
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    Great writeup. I lean Cinci, although Louisville has shown some spark. I'm probably not playing a side though. I do like the over. 58.5. It looks to me like this one could get large. Good luck with the play on Cinci. And thanks for the thread.
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  27. 10-15-10 01:10 AM #27
    caracalla
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    another excellente write-up. BOL
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  28. 10-15-10 01:28 AM #28
    DREEZY
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    Well, I have Lou +10 on a teaser card, maybe we can both win **.
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  29. 10-15-10 01:33 AM #29
    BathingApe
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    I locked cincy at -1 1h and -3 game both at -105. Hopefully they come out strong tomorrow.
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  30. 10-15-10 01:39 AM #30
    qhdlhdjtn
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    like it Let's get it
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  31. 10-15-10 01:53 AM #31
    kings12
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    Like the pick machine you are on a roll right now.
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  32. 10-15-10 03:21 AM #32
    udlock4life
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    awesome
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  33. 10-15-10 03:43 AM #33
    ACCBlitz
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    Always love reading your posts Machine. GL
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  34. 10-15-10 04:14 AM #34
    Foals
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    The Cincy RB Pead is an absolute beast. Cincy roll
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  35. 10-15-10 04:22 AM #35
    305GURU
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    Thanx ** i was thinking the same....i need cinci to roll..
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