And you love to keep posting losers.Originally Posted by johnnyvegas13
You're not the mom of paypal I thought you to be.
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12-06-23 05:56 PM #71
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12-06-23 06:06 PM #72
I think this has a real shot... Loved it at 10 to 1
1) why wouldn't nix voters go.to penix? If they favoured mega numbers, they would have been on jayden already... Penis and nix were similar
2) voters can't disclose their picks any more.. So way more uncertainty
3) after playoff fiasco, pressure to pick player in playoff... How many non playoff have won
Even odds I'd be all over Daniels but it's notNomination(s):This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: ChuckyTheGoat
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12-06-23 06:31 PM #73
Yes playoffs is huge Originally Posted by gojetsgomoxies
I’m glad u get that
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12-06-23 07:04 PM #74
So you have a year where there were 6 awesome teams that should have made the playoffs... But "hey, let's give it to the QB of a 3-loss team"
BTW I was big Daniels fan at ASU
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12-06-23 07:20 PM #75
Nice post, Jets. Let's build the momentum. Originally Posted by gojetsgomoxies
I've tried to post two basic ideas in this thread:
1) Harder and harder to find Actual votes. The Heisman club wants this to have drama.
...I watched the Chris Fowler interview. He said that Deloitte only tells him the true winner b4 the last commercial, just so he can be prepared with a few questions for the Winner.
2) When you stack it all up, Penix only has to have a 10% win probability.
...If I had to put a number on it, I might say 20%. That's a nice +EV bet.
...There have been presidential elections where the result surprised. Trump +400 comes to mind. The polling is not perfect.
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12-06-23 11:05 PM #76
i root for johnny
i basically root for everyone to win the wagers unless they are opposite me on a particular one.
but Jayden is going to win.
this Penix bet, no matter how *good the value*
is going to lose lose losePoints Awarded:
mjsuax13 gave homie1975 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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12-08-23 10:51 AM #77
ESPN Chris Russo aka mad dog voted for penix to win the horseman
not that he knows anything but still
guys r picking penixNomination(s):This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: ChuckyTheGoat
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12-08-23 11:11 AM #78
Good info, Johnny. At least you have a chance. Originally Posted by johnnyvegas13
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12-08-23 03:10 PM #79
When is/was vote cutoff?
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12-08-23 03:18 PM #80
I think it was Monday. Originally Posted by gojetsgomoxies
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12-08-23 07:59 PM #81
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12-08-23 10:37 PM #82
Jayden wins Walter Camp and Davey O'Brien
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12-08-23 10:48 PM #83
Klatt previews the Heisman:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qc8hEJ5KaSs
Penix has:
1) Led the nation in Passing in BB years.
2) Led the team to 20 straight wins over the L2 years. That includes: three wins over Oreg and a win over Texas. Add in wins vs Oreg St/USC and two Apple Cup wins.
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12-08-23 10:59 PM #84
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12-09-23 01:57 AM #85Nomination(s):This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: ChuckyTheGoat
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12-09-23 01:57 AM #86
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12-09-23 09:41 AM #87
I fixed it for you. Originally Posted by johnnyvegas13
hedge out and bet Jayden over the top at the enormous Minus Odds.
trust me.
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12-09-23 12:06 PM #88
Jayden -1600, Pennix +900, Nix +2200, Harrison +20000 Originally Posted by homie1975
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12-09-23 12:25 PM #89
Pffft, you talked me into it. LOL
https://imgur.com/a/tiWMkKr
Only got +850 though
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12-09-23 08:20 PM #90
Props to Daniels, Heisman winner. Saw that the 1st-place votes were roughly:
*Daniels: 500
*Penix: 300
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12-09-23 09:50 PM #91
So this kid sucks dikk yet again, correct?
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12-09-23 10:04 PM #92
I will never understand how one QB can win the best QB award and then the heisman goes to another QB. I mean if are voted the most outstanding player in college football wouldn't you have to be the best at your own position?
I guess if the committee voted on that I would understand.
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12-09-23 10:30 PM #93
another dart that missed the mark for your boy Chucky. Better luck next time. Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat
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12-09-23 10:36 PM #94
A lot of wasted keystrokes in this thread by Chucky trying to prop up his boy toy's latest pick that most knew was dead on arrival. Just saying.
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12-10-23 01:56 PM #95
what happened?
do we have the result yet?
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12-10-23 01:58 PM #96
good call. Originally Posted by gojetsgomoxies
Nix numbers were WAY BETTER than penix numbers. they were closer to Jayden NOT Penix.
but good call on that
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12-10-23 02:11 PM #97
Jayden Daniels wins 2023 Heisman Trophy Originally Posted by homie1975
what happened?
do we have the result yet?
Johnny Vegas loses another pick this year and may have to get a job as mom kicked him out of basement
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12-10-23 03:17 PM #98
yes Pavy i was being facetious. Originally Posted by pavyracer
i have been saying right off the bat in this thread that Jayden was winning and that was that.
once Bo lost to Wash back on Friday 12/1, it was quite obvious where this was going.
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12-10-23 03:31 PM #99
What planet do some of you live on?
Every heisman analysis I've seen called it "a close vote" or "very close"
9 to 1 is a 10% chance
As a 1st comparison, penix has more passing yards than Nix... So I am not sure how nix was far betterNomination(s):This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: ChuckyTheGoat
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12-10-23 03:45 PM #100
Yep. Penix needed to swing about 100 more votes. Close but props to Daniels. Originally Posted by gojetsgomoxies
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12-10-23 04:35 PM #101
You would've told Johnny it was a good bet whether it was separated by a single vote or 1000 votes. Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat
He could've bet Deacon Hill for the Heisman and you would've cupped your hand and gave him a firm pat on the buttocks.
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12-10-23 04:57 PM #102
Originally Posted by Eddy Munny
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12-10-23 06:02 PM #103
and that is where the comparisons end Originally Posted by gojetsgomoxies
don't cherry pick stats. the ONLY ones Penix beat Bo in were 75 more passing yards, that is it.
you conveniently left out all of the bolded where Bo and Jayden beat Penix:
Jayden Daniels 72% completions, 3812 passing yards, 40 TDs passing, 4 Ints, 10 rushing TD's, 1134 rushing yds, total yards 4946
Bo Nix 77% completions, 4145 passing yards, 40 TDs passing, 3 Ints, 6 rushing TD's, , 228 rushing yds, total yards 4373
Michael Penix 66% completions, 4218 passing yards, 33 TDs passing, 9 Ints, 3 TDs, MINUS 18 Rush yards, total yards 4200
a 10 to won bet that should really be a 7 to 1 bet or 6 to 1 bet is STILL A LOSING BET
shame on Johhnny, Chuck and you, for even believing that know what you are talking about.
you DO NOT
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12-10-23 06:07 PM #104
a specific sporting contest where you get 9 or 10 to 1 odds when the true odds should be 4 to 1 or 5 to 1, etc, is much much much better EV than the same odds where there is a tabulated vote across hundreds (or thousands) of people and the accumulation of the voting is stronger than lobbing basketballs from 20 feet or dealing with variance of interceptions and fumbles.
This was not a 15 point favorite winning by 3 points.
This was a 15 point favorite winning by 11.
you still lost and the 15 point fave in basketball or football has a tremendously better chance for running into random variance compared to a guy getting 950 people to vote and to know the stats above.
there was simply no parallel universe that Penix was going to wint in. none. zero.
the only reason Penix vaulted to number 2 was because he was the only guy left in the Playoff and his team beat Oregon.
the moment he lost at home to crappy ASU and threw 0 tds and 2 ints, then had a lazy win vs Wazzu, it was over. Over i say. OVER.
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12-10-23 11:34 PM #105
okay, final question:
WHAT THE FUKK WERE YOU THINKING (this is for OP and all who circle jerked him).
absolutely awful pick. terrible. extremely lousy gambling play.
amateur hour.
okay i am done.Points Awarded:
asiagambler gave homie1975 5 Betpoint(s) for this post.
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