1. #71
    Eddy Munny
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnnyvegas13 View Post
    U love to keep rewriting the same joke eddy
    And you love to keep posting losers.

    You're not the mom of paypal I thought you to be.

  2. #72
    gojetsgomoxies
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    I think this has a real shot... Loved it at 10 to 1

    1) why wouldn't nix voters go.to penix? If they favoured mega numbers, they would have been on jayden already... Penis and nix were similar

    2) voters can't disclose their picks any more.. So way more uncertainty

    3) after playoff fiasco, pressure to pick player in playoff... How many non playoff have won

    Even odds I'd be all over Daniels but it's not
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  3. #73
    johnnyvegas13
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    Quote Originally Posted by gojetsgomoxies View Post
    I think this has a real shot... Loved it at 10 to 1

    1) why wouldn't nix voters go.to penix? If they favoured mega numbers, they would have been on jayden already... Penis and nix were similar

    2) voters can't disclose their picks any more.. So way more uncertainty

    3) after playoff fiasco, pressure to pick player in playoff... How many non playoff have won

    Even odds I'd be all over Daniels but it's not
    Yes playoffs is huge

    I’m glad u get that

  4. #74
    gojetsgomoxies
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    So you have a year where there were 6 awesome teams that should have made the playoffs... But "hey, let's give it to the QB of a 3-loss team"

    BTW I was big Daniels fan at ASU

  5. #75
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Quote Originally Posted by gojetsgomoxies View Post
    I think this has a real shot... Loved it at 10 to 1

    1) why wouldn't nix voters go.to penix? If they favoured mega numbers, they would have been on jayden already... Penis and nix were similar

    2) voters can't disclose their picks any more.. So way more uncertainty

    3) after playoff fiasco, pressure to pick player in playoff... How many non playoff have won

    Even odds I'd be all over Daniels but it's not
    Nice post, Jets. Let's build the momentum.

    I've tried to post two basic ideas in this thread:
    1) Harder and harder to find Actual votes. The Heisman club wants this to have drama.
    ...I watched the Chris Fowler interview. He said that Deloitte only tells him the true winner b4 the last commercial, just so he can be prepared with a few questions for the Winner.

    2) When you stack it all up, Penix only has to have a 10% win probability.
    ...If I had to put a number on it, I might say 20%. That's a nice +EV bet.
    ...There have been presidential elections where the result surprised. Trump +400 comes to mind. The polling is not perfect.

  6. #76
    homie1975
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    i root for johnny

    i basically root for everyone to win the wagers unless they are opposite me on a particular one.

    but Jayden is going to win.

    this Penix bet, no matter how *good the value*

    is going to lose lose lose
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  7. #77
    johnnyvegas13
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    ESPN Chris Russo aka mad dog voted for penix to win the horseman

    not that he knows anything but still

    guys r picking penix
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  8. #78
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnnyvegas13 View Post
    ESPN Chris Russo aka mad dog voted for penix to win the horseman

    not that he knows anything but still

    guys r picking penix
    Good info, Johnny. At least you have a chance.

  9. #79
    gojetsgomoxies
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    When is/was vote cutoff?

  10. #80
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Quote Originally Posted by gojetsgomoxies View Post
    When is/was vote cutoff?
    I think it was Monday.

  11. #81
    homie1975
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    Updated odds?

  12. #82
    homie1975
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    Jayden wins Walter Camp and Davey O'Brien

  13. #83
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Klatt previews the Heisman:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qc8hEJ5KaSs

    Penix has:
    1) Led the nation in Passing in BB years.
    2) Led the team to 20 straight wins over the L2 years. That includes: three wins over Oreg and a win over Texas. Add in wins vs Oreg St/USC and two Apple Cup wins.

  14. #84
    ChuckyTheGoat
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  15. #85
    johnnyvegas13
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  16. #86
    johnnyvegas13
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    Real shot at this tmr

  17. #87
    homie1975
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnnyvegas13 View Post
    Real NO shot at this tmr
    I fixed it for you.

    hedge out and bet Jayden over the top at the enormous Minus Odds.

    trust me.

  18. #88
    RockBottom
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    Quote Originally Posted by homie1975 View Post
    Updated odds?
    Jayden -1600, Pennix +900, Nix +2200, Harrison +20000

  19. #89
    ddittie
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    Pffft, you talked me into it. LOL

    https://imgur.com/a/tiWMkKr

    Only got +850 though

  20. #90
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Props to Daniels, Heisman winner. Saw that the 1st-place votes were roughly:
    *Daniels: 500
    *Penix: 300

  21. #91
    BGS 9.5
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    So this kid sucks dikk yet again, correct?

  22. #92
    unde0087
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    I will never understand how one QB can win the best QB award and then the heisman goes to another QB. I mean if are voted the most outstanding player in college football wouldn't you have to be the best at your own position? I guess if the committee voted on that I would understand.

  23. #93
    Easy-Rider 66
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat View Post
    Props to Daniels, Heisman winner. Saw that the 1st-place votes were roughly:
    *Daniels: 500
    *Penix: 300
    another dart that missed the mark for your boy Chucky. Better luck next time.

  24. #94
    Eddy Munny
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    A lot of wasted keystrokes in this thread by Chucky trying to prop up his boy toy's latest pick that most knew was dead on arrival. Just saying.

  25. #95
    homie1975
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    what happened?

    do we have the result yet?


  26. #96
    homie1975
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    Quote Originally Posted by gojetsgomoxies View Post
    I think this has a real shot... Loved it at 10 to 1

    1) why wouldn't nix voters go.to penix? If they favoured mega numbers, they would have been on jayden already... Penis and nix were similar

    2) voters can't disclose their picks any more.. So way more uncertainty

    3) after playoff fiasco, pressure to pick player in playoff... How many non playoff have won

    Even odds I'd be all over Daniels but it's not
    good call.

    Nix numbers were WAY BETTER than penix numbers. they were closer to Jayden NOT Penix.

    but good call on that


  27. #97
    pavyracer
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    Quote Originally Posted by homie1975 View Post
    what happened?

    do we have the result yet?

    Jayden Daniels wins 2023 Heisman Trophy

    Johnny Vegas loses another pick this year and may have to get a job as mom kicked him out of basement

  28. #98
    homie1975
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    Quote Originally Posted by pavyracer View Post
    Jayden Daniels wins 2023 Heisman Trophy

    Johnny Vegas loses another pick this year and may have to get a job as mom kicked him out of basement
    yes Pavy i was being facetious.

    i have been saying right off the bat in this thread that Jayden was winning and that was that.

    once Bo lost to Wash back on Friday 12/1, it was quite obvious where this was going.

  29. #99
    gojetsgomoxies
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    What planet do some of you live on?

    Every heisman analysis I've seen called it "a close vote" or "very close"

    9 to 1 is a 10% chance

    As a 1st comparison, penix has more passing yards than Nix... So I am not sure how nix was far better
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  30. #100
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Quote Originally Posted by gojetsgomoxies View Post
    What planet do some of you live on?

    Every heisman analysis I've seen called it "a close vote" or "very close"


    9 to 1 is a 10% chance

    As a 1st comparison, penix has more passing yards than Nix... So I am not sure how nix was far better
    Yep. Penix needed to swing about 100 more votes. Close but props to Daniels.

  31. #101
    Eddy Munny
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat View Post
    Yep. Penix needed to swing about 100 more votes. Close but props to Daniels.
    You would've told Johnny it was a good bet whether it was separated by a single vote or 1000 votes.

    He could've bet Deacon Hill for the Heisman and you would've cupped your hand and gave him a firm pat on the buttocks.

  32. #102
    asiagambler
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eddy Munny View Post
    You would've told Johnny it was a good bet whether it was separated by a single vote or 1000 votes.

    He could've bet Deacon Hill for the Heisman and you would've cupped your hand and gave him a firm pat on the buttocks.

  33. #103
    homie1975
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    Quote Originally Posted by gojetsgomoxies View Post
    What planet do some of you live on?

    Every heisman analysis I've seen called it "a close vote" or "very close"

    9 to 1 is a 10% chance

    As a 1st comparison, penix has more passing yards than Nix... So I am not sure how nix was far better
    and that is where the comparisons end

    don't cherry pick stats. the ONLY ones Penix beat Bo in were 75 more passing yards, that is it.

    you conveniently left out all of the bolded where Bo and Jayden beat Penix:

    Jayden Daniels 72% completions, 3812 passing yards, 40 TDs passing, 4 Ints, 10 rushing TD's, 1134 rushing yds, total yards 4946

    Bo Nix 77% completions, 4145 passing yards, 40 TDs passing, 3 Ints, 6 rushing TD's, , 228 rushing yds, total yards 4373

    Michael Penix 66% completions, 4218 passing yards, 33 TDs passing, 9 Ints, 3 TDs, MINUS 18 Rush yards, total yards 4200

    a 10 to won bet that should really be a 7 to 1 bet or 6 to 1 bet is STILL A LOSING BET

    shame on Johhnny, Chuck and you, for even believing that know what you are talking about.

    you DO NOT

  34. #104
    homie1975
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    a specific sporting contest where you get 9 or 10 to 1 odds when the true odds should be 4 to 1 or 5 to 1, etc, is much much much better EV than the same odds where there is a tabulated vote across hundreds (or thousands) of people and the accumulation of the voting is stronger than lobbing basketballs from 20 feet or dealing with variance of interceptions and fumbles.

    This was not a 15 point favorite winning by 3 points.

    This was a 15 point favorite winning by 11.

    you still lost and the 15 point fave in basketball or football has a tremendously better chance for running into random variance compared to a guy getting 950 people to vote and to know the stats above.

    there was simply no parallel universe that Penix was going to wint in. none. zero.

    the only reason Penix vaulted to number 2 was because he was the only guy left in the Playoff and his team beat Oregon.

    the moment he lost at home to crappy ASU and threw 0 tds and 2 ints, then had a lazy win vs Wazzu, it was over. Over i say. OVER.

  35. #105
    homie1975
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    okay, final question:

    WHAT THE FUKK WERE YOU THINKING (this is for OP and all who circle jerked him).

    absolutely awful pick. terrible. extremely lousy gambling play.

    amateur hour.

    okay i am done.
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