Dapper Dan Picks:
Bowls: 1-5 (-4.68 units)
Season YTD: 82-79 (-7.77 units)
Bowls have been brutal with all these opt-outs, let’s see if we can turn this ship around.
Troy -6.5 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
Duke’s 3 of it’s Top 5 tacklers are out, it’s top 2 QB’s and top 2 RB’s all out. Their starting center who played the majority of the season got injured and missed the last few games too. Their defensive mastermind head coach Mike Elko has also left so this Duke team will be a shell of who they were and had already lost 4 of it’s last 6 after Riley got injured. Granted Duke has a much stronger SOS but Troy has big advantages in PFF - ranking 11th overall in defense, 22nd in the pass rush, 24th in coverage, 1st in run defense, and 29th in tackling. Duke’s offense has struggled to protect their QB ranking 61st in pass blocking and all of their PFF’s numbers of dropped off significantly since the middle of the season, their strength was their defense but this is not going to be the same defense on the field and they were already being hampered at the end of the season by the lack of offense as they ranked 56th overall, 92nd in rush defense and 93rd in tackling by seasons end. Troy should win this one handedly and the big Power 5 vs thee Group of 5 is giving us a little value here.
Air Force +1.5 (-106) Risking 1.59 units to win 1.5 units
Air Force really struggled down the stretch, losing it’s last 4 games after winning it’s first 8 games - but that was largely due to the injury of starting QB Zac Larrier who should be back in this one, including a few other key players that missed the last few games. More importantly, nearly the entire coaching staff for James Madison fled from the program after a historic year for them, forcing them to hire 5 new coaches just for the bowl game in order to fill the void (not sure if this has ever happened before). Mike Shanahan won’t be calling plays and to make things worse - starting QB who took all the snaps is out, leading WR, Top 3 of it’s tacklers on defense. I can’t imagine a team with this many departures to pull out the win - tack Air Force for 1.5 units!
Northwestern +7 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
Northwestern ML (+210) Risking .25 units to win .53 units
I’ve been really impressed with this NW team down the stretch, winning 4 of it’s last 5 and only losing to Iowa by 3 points. Surprisingly, their defense out ranks Utah’s in most categories, including ranking 52nd overall (opposed to Utah’s 68th rank) and in coverage where NW ranks 46th and Utah ranks 84th! Utah’s offense has struggled at producing big plays with Rising out all year, they rank 96th in plays over 10+ yards and this NW team is good at not allowing the big plays ranking 25th in plays over 10+ yards allowed. Utah’s defense has been so stout, ranking 83rd in plays over 10+ yards allowed. Utah has a lot more opt-outs and injuries as well, with two of it’s top 5 tacklers on the season opting out and their leading WR. I think NW could win this one but definitely should cover the 7 points.
Dapper Dan Picks:
Bowls: 4-6 (-2.8 units)
Season YTD: 85-80 (-5.89 units)
Minnesota -3 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
This is a huge coaching mismatch and SOS on paper. I’ve had head coach Scott Loeffler as one of the worst rated play callers in college football dating back to 2011 at Temple, From there he went to Virginia Tech from ‘12-’15 and his offenses were consistently in the bottom 25% of ypp and most pertinent metrics. In 2016 he went to BC for 3 years where he ranked 126th, 99th and 99th in ypp. For the last 4 years he’s been at Bowling Green and last year was replaced as play-caller finally but they didn't improve as in 2021 they ranked 117th and this past year ranked 101st in ypp. These are his average ypp’s over the last 8 years for his offenses: 2016: 126th. 2017: 99th, 2018: 99th. 2019: 125th. 2020: 92nd. 2021: 117th. 2022: 101st. PJ Fleck on the other hand is one of my top tier rated coaches nd although his team struggled this year they may get to see a little spark with new QB, Cole Kramer. He has been a backup for 4 years learning Fleck’s offenses but never got his opportunity to start a game. This will be his first time ever starting and the team is certainly rallying around him as you don’t see many backup’s who have been with a program for such a long time and never got a start. He still has one year eligibility so if he can muster up a good bowl game he has the opportunity to be first in line to start next season with Kalikamanis transferring. Minnesota is a run-frist team and this depleted Bowling Green defense won’t be able to keep up. Sagarin’s SOS rating is pretty significant as Minnesota has played the 41st toughest schedule and Bowling Green 104th. Minnesota should win easily and I also kinda like their TT over may sprinkle a little on there.
Texas State ML (-161) Risking 1.61 units to win 1 units
I like Texas State to pull off the win here as they have a few key advantages despite their defense being one of the worst in the league (both teams are horrendous). But the one strength of this Texas State defense has been their pass rush which is ranked 14th in PFF and had its most sacks in a season since 1997. This is a big problem for Rice who’s starting QB JT Daniels medically retired due to getting hit so much this season, their offensive line ranks 120th in pass blocking. AJ Pagett came in relief at the end of the season and won 2 of 3 but I’m not sold on his ability to keep pace with this proven explosive Texas State offense led by veteran TJ Finley who threw for 3300 yards, 24 TD’s and only 8 INT’s. He has 1200 yards running back Ismail Mahdi behind him who averaged 6 ypc. Even with JT Daniels under center most of the season, the FEI shows strong advantages for Texas State on offense, a differential 3x the size of Rice’s offense over Texas State’s defense. The average across all FEI categories is 63 ranks for Texas State where Rice’s is only 22 ranks. Rice’s defense really struggled at allowing big plays over 10+ yards they ranked 114th and plays over 30+ yards they ranked 92nd. Texas State’s offense ranks 8th in plays over 10+ yards and 62nd in plays over 30+ yards so they should get plenty of first downs with a differential of 106 ranks. Despite Texas State’s bad defense, Rice’s offense has struggled at big plays ranking 78th in plays over 10+ yards. If Texas State can get a nice lead this may be a blow-out with the pass rush pinning their ears back but the defense is so bad lets take the ML to be safe. The could squeak out the win and have a much better kicker who has hit 100% of his kicks this season going 14 for 14 where Rice’s kicker went 8 for 12.
Dapper Dan Picks:
Bowls: 7-9 (-3.23 units)
Season YTD: 87-80 (-6.32 units)
No time for write-ups today sorry busy with the baby and traveling.
Bowl Adds:
Rutgers ML (-130) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
NC State +3 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Arizona ML (-128) Risking 1.92 units to win 1.5 units
Dapper Dan Picks:
Bowls: 9-10 (-1.83 units)
Season YTD: 89-81 (-4.92 units)
Got sick, 4 month old baby, no writeups sorry fellas. I would just be a bunch of gibberish though considering all these opt-outs. No not an excuse, just the reality of college football bowl situation. At Least next year the 12 teams will be motivated
Kentucky +4 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units
Iowa State -9.5 (-117) Risking 1.17 units to win 1 units
Missouri +4.5 (+100) Risking 1.5 units to win 1.5 units
Missouri ML (+186) Rising .5 units to win .93 units
Dapper Dan Picks:
Bowls: 12-11 (+0.43 units)
Season YTD: 92-82 (-2.66 units)
We are creeping back into the black! So still no writeups today sorry still recovering from flu and today's card really blows but I intend to have full write-ups for Mondays card which looks freaking sweet and a great way to end off the year and potentially get back in the GREEN - which would be the 8th season out of 12 seasons (posted online) that we were positive - this is very frickin important as 8 of 12 is way better than 7 of 12 seasons posted online. We will workkkkkkkkk
Today a rare prop because the card sucks so much. I’m going to try to get into props more next year as reviewing all my spreadsheets theres a lot of mismatches that would be good props (i.e. top 20 rush offense vs bottom 20 rush defense, coverage, etc. )
Penn State ML (-184) Risking 1.84 units to win 1 units
Aub/Maryland Under 47.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Drew Allar (PENN ST QB) over 182.5 Pass Yards (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
Dapper Dan Picks:
Bowls: 14-12 (+0.59 units)
Season YTD: 94-83 (-2.5 units)
Such a bueatifful day, happy new year all. No write ups sorrry next year will be back to them regularly imma play the newborn card as why I don’t have time lol…all one unit unless noted next to
Dapper Dan Picks:
Bowls: 16-16 (-1.35 units)
Season YTD: 96-87 (-4.44)
Final Bowl Game:
Washington +4.5 (-104) Risking 2.6 units to win 2.5 units
Washington ML (+188) Risking 1 unit to win 1.88 units
Wash/Mich Over 55 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
Last Hoorah - I usually don’t do this but we’re close enough and I would like to at-least make an attempt at getting in the green to end this season and I really like Washington with the points. Despite Michigan having the best secondary in the country they have not seen a QB and WR corps of this caliber (the best) - each team should score at will and Washington hopefully pulls out the upset and we end the season in the GREEN! Good luck to all.. Already excited for next season as despite this slightly losing year - we learned a lot of shit and grabbed some new sites (and lost some rip footballoutsiders.com)
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