[Gamblinmann]

It's mid August and our favorite time of the year is just around the corner. Good luck to everyone.

Colorado St -3.5 vs Oregon St $330 to win $300

Colorado St had one of the best offenses in the 2nd half of last season and most of that same crew returns. One could argue QB Nick Stevens was the hottest QB in the 2nd half in all of CFB not to mention the most accurate. He gets back his favorite target and a WR that I believe is going to explode this season Michael Gallup. This guy put up some great numbers last season despite the fact he knew nothing about route running. He spent the summer learning and that will pay off in making him unstoppable.

The Rams have a 2 headed monster at RB led by Dawkins and Mathews with Mathews scoring 13 tds last season. The OL brings back their stud center and has plenty of experience. This offense will be prolific due to the best weapon an offense has-play action. CS was 7-0 when running for more than 200yds. Oregon St gave up an avg of 218 on the ground last season ranked 102 in the nation. Expect Oregon St to concentrate on not letting Stevens-Gallup and a hot passing offense to beat them so safeties deep which opens up a solid Ram ground attack. Add in the Beaver's best 2 cbs are gone and Colorado St has a plethora of options for the offensive play caller.

On D, the Rams bring back a lot of experience with LB being their strength led by Watson Jr and they get Clyborn back. Best safety and CB also return. The weakness in the Colorado St D is their DL. This is a concern because the Beavers can run the ball behind Nall Jr. The saving grace in this scenario is that Oregon St lost their 3 best guys on the OL.

On offense JUCO Luton has won the QB job. He is huge at 6'7 and could be tough to bring down. However, this is a guy who could not win the starting job at IDAHO. He went to community college after that and returns to one of the worst passing offenses in college. They were 118th in the country throwing the ball and lost their best WR. The ONLY chance Oregon St has at keeping this close is running the ball, but I would expect the Ram's D to stack the box and make an Idaho reject QB beat them in the air. Last season, Oregon St was 0-8 when scoring under 34 points.

The X factor in this game is Colorado St opens up a brand new stadium and has sold out. Expect the all important big MO to be with the Rams when this game kicks off. I would be stunned if Colorado St does not hang 45+ on this Beaver D and that should be enough to get the cover.

[Gamblinmann]

Love having a late night West coast game on day 1 of CFB.

USF-20 vs SJS $220 to win $200

Rarely do I rely on one player to influence a bet, but Quentin Flowers is that damn good. I just see no way in hell, that pathetic Spartan D can even slow him down. What I love most is he is thought of as a RB playing QB but that is a false assumption. He completed 63% with 24 tds and only 7 picks. Flowers is my dark horse candidate to win the Heisman so I expect him to put up video game numbers in this one.

Last season, USF was 5th in rushing, 4th in scoring and 11th overall in the country. They lose their stud RB in Mack but this years starter just might be more explosive. Johnson has speed to burn and caught 28 passes for 293 last season. A RB that can catch gives Flowers a safety valve and speaking of a safety valve, what QB does'nt like a stud at TE? Wilcox gives Flowers a nice target over the middle. At WR McCants & Scantling should take the next step up. With 3 coming back at OL, Flowers will decimate the Spartan D on the ground and through the air.

On D South Florida SUCKED last season. They get a lot of experience back and one would think Strong will at least improve this unit but I'm not counting on it. What I am counting on is SJS being so bad on offense that it won't matter. They have not figured out who the starting QB is yet which speaks volumes. It's not the best they are confused about but rather who sucks the least.

The Spartans are a bad football team period. They have a lot of youth and inexperience. Last season they gave up a staggering 50 sacks and a mind boggling 101 tackles for a loss. Opponents avgd 432 yds pg and SJS gave up 35ppg. I got the Quentin Flowers o/u on total TDs at 7.

My X factor in this one is a coach. Nope, not one Charlie Strong but the new offensive coordinator Gilbert. This guy has a resume of high powered passing attacks and last yr had a hand in making D'Onta Foreman the #2 rushing yds leader in the nation. Like Flowers, he also will want a strong start to the season. This one will be over by halftime so if you are in the upper middle aged category like me, we can call it a night at the half knowing we wake up to an easy cover......

[Mike2332]

It's mid August and our favorite time of the year is just around the corner. Good luck to everyone.

Colorado St -3.5 vs Oregon St $330 to win $300

Colorado St had one of the best offenses in the 2nd half of last season and most of that same crew returns. One could argue QB Nick Stevens was the hottest QB in the 2nd half in all of CFB not to mention the most accurate. He gets back his favorite target and a WR that I believe is going to explode this season Michael Gallup. This guy put up some great numbers last season despite the fact he knew nothing about route running. He spent the summer learning and that will pay off in making him unstoppable.

The Rams have a 2 headed monster at RB led by Dawkins and Mathews with Mathews scoring 13 tds last season. The OL brings back their stud center and has plenty of experience. This offense will be prolific due to the best weapon an offense has-play action. CS was 7-0 when running for more than 200yds. Oregon St gave up an avg of 218 on the ground last season ranked 102 in the nation. Expect Oregon St to concentrate on not letting Stevens-Gallup and a hot passing offense to beat them so safeties deep which opens up a solid Ram ground attack. Add in the Beaver's best 2 cbs are gone and Colorado St has a plethora of options for the offensive play caller.

On D, the Rams bring back a lot of experience with LB being their strength led by Watson Jr and they get Clyborn back. Best safety and CB also return. The weakness in the Colorado St D is their DL. This is a concern because the Beavers can run the ball behind Nall Jr. The saving grace in this scenario is that Oregon St lost their 3 best guys on the OL.

On offense JUCO Luton has won the QB job. He is huge at 6'7 and could be tough to bring down. However, this is a guy who could not win the starting job at IDAHO. He went to community college after that and returns to one of the worst passing offenses in college. They were 118th in the country throwing the ball and lost their best WR. The ONLY chance Oregon St has at keeping this close is running the ball, but I would expect the Ram's D to stack the box and make an Idaho reject QB beat them in the air. Last season, Oregon St was 0-8 when scoring under 34 points.

The X factor in this game is Colorado St opens up a brand new stadium and has sold out. Expect the all important big MO to be with the Rams when this game kicks off. I would be stunned if Colorado St does not hang 45+ on this Beaver D and that should be enough to get the cover.

A no play for me but a strong lean on COL ST.

I think Rams will surprise some people in the MWC.....

[Mike2332]

Love having a late night West coast game on day 1 of CFB.

USF-20 vs SJS $220 to win $200

Rarely do I rely on one player to influence a bet, but Quentin Flowers is that damn good. I just see no way in hell, that pathetic Spartan D can even slow him down. What I love most is he is thought of as a RB playing QB but that is a false assumption. He completed 63% with 24 tds and only 7 picks. Flowers is my dark horse candidate to win the Heisman so I expect him to put up video game numbers in this one.

Last season, USF was 5th in rushing, 4th in scoring and 11th overall in the country. They lose their stud RB in Mack but this years starter just might be more explosive. Johnson has speed to burn and caught 28 passes for 293 last season. A RB that can catch gives Flowers a safety valve and speaking of a safety valve, what QB does'nt like a stud at TE? Wilcox gives Flowers a nice target over the middle. At WR McCants & Scantling should take the next step up. With 3 coming back at OL, Flowers will decimate the Spartan D on the ground and through the air.

On D South Florida SUCKED last season. They get a lot of experience back and one would think Strong will at least improve this unit but I'm not counting on it. What I am counting on is SJS being so bad on offense that it won't matter. They have not figured out who the starting QB is yet which speaks volumes. It's not the best they are confused about but rather who sucks the least.

The Spartans are a bad football team period. They have a lot of youth and inexperience. Last season they gave up a staggering 50 sacks and a mind boggling 101 tackles for a loss. Opponents avgd 432 yds pg and SJS gave up 35ppg. I got the Quentin Flowers o/u on total TDs at 7.

My X factor in this one is a coach. Nope, not one Charlie Strong but the new offensive coordinator Gilbert. This guy has a resume of high powered passing attacks and last yr had a hand in making D'Onta Foreman the #2 rushing yds leader in the nation. Like Flowers, he also will want a strong start to the season. This one will be over by halftime so if you are in the upper middle aged category like me, we can call it a night at the half knowing we wake up to an easy cover......

Games like this never seem to go the logical way you would expect............Everything points to USF coming in and taking care of business.......In general I try not to bet against home dogs even more so in this case where the FAV. is flying clear cross country to open up the season in a night game......As much as I like USF I cant pull the trigger here........BUT I very much like the UNDER in this game.....It has been set at 66.

Good Luck G-Man

[Gamblinmann]

IF their D improves enough, they win the MWC, but that's a big IF.

[Gamblinmann]

Games like this never seem to go the logical way you would expect............Everything points to USF coming in and taking care of business.......In general I try not to bet against home dogs even more so in this case where the FAV. is flying clear cross country to open up the season in a night game......As much as I like USF I cant pull the trigger here........BUT I very much like the UNDER in this game.....It has been set at 66.

Good Luck G-Man

Normally I would agree about the travel but it's the first game so not really a grind. Also, agree on the home dog thing except for the first month of the season where favs cover at a high percentage. I looked at the under too, but Flowers will put up 50+ and I'm not sure the USF D can hold even a bad SJS offense under 21. Best of luck to you also

[BigdaddyQH]

You really have to like both plays here. First, if USF cannot cover the spread against an opponent who some pick to win a total of 2 games (at home against Cal Poly and Fresno State), then Charlie may as well just quit now and avoid the ramifications. USF is going to lose at least 5 starters on offense including QB Flowers, and 7 starters on defense after this season is over. It is basically now or never for USF, if they have any hopes of playing in a New Years Day Bowl Game.

I think that Oregon State is over rated by many this season. They talk about their 4 wins last season, but upon closer exam, we are loooking at 3 Pac 12 teams that failed to make a bowl game and Idaho State. I really do not see them doing much better this season. They lost QB McMaryion, leaving the starting QB job to a juco transfer Jake Luton. Their defense is very thin, and only returns 5 starters from last season. Colorado State has a high power offense that returns 6 starters from last season. This team can score iva the run and the pass. The Ram's defense returns 8 starters, but needs work, especially in the secodary, where they lost Junior FS Braylon Scott for the year. Still, Oregon State's offensive strength is on the ground, so Colorado State should be able to contain them and cover the 3 1/2.

[Gamblinmann]

You really have to like both plays here. First, if USF cannot cover the spread against an opponent who some pick to win a total of 2 games (at home against Cal Poly and Fresno State), then Charlie may as well just quit now and avoid the ramifications. USF is going to lose at least 5 starters on offense including QB Flowers, and 7 starters on defense after this season is over. It is basically now or never for USF, if they have any hopes of playing in a New Years Day Bowl Game.

I think that Oregon State is over rated by many this season. They talk about their 4 wins last season, but upon closer exam, we are loooking at 3 Pac 12 teams that failed to make a bowl game and Idaho State. I really do not see them doing much better this season. They lost QB McMaryion, leaving the starting QB job to a juco transfer Jake Luton. Their defense is very thin, and only returns 5 starters from last season. Colorado State has a high power offense that returns 6 starters from last season. This team can score iva the run and the pass. The Ram's defense returns 8 starters, but needs work, especially in the secodary, where they lost Junior FS Braylon Scott for the year. Still, Oregon State's offensive strength is on the ground, so Colorado State should be able to contain them and cover the 3 1/2.

I watched Flowers play 5 times last season on tv. This kid impressed the hell out of me. I have been very successful over the years identifying QBs who have the "it" factor and this guy has it. I expect a coming out party for him against SJS.

As for the Rams, I have been reading everything coming out of fall camp and the D seems to have improved. I am chomping at the bit to sit back and watch this one.

[JMF2479]

Gamblinmann, I'm on these two plays of yours as well . Best of luck

[Gamblinmann]

Same to you JMF, let's get these 2

[BigdaddyQH]

Watch the Colorado State vs Oregon State game carefully. If Colorado State looks real good, jump on them at +7 over Colorado. Colorado's defense will be just about non-existent this season, and they finished last season 1-2 S/U and 0-3 ATS. Colorado State will also have the big advantage of having played a game going into this one.

[JMF2479]

Watch the Colorado State vs Oregon State game carefully. If Colorado State looks real good, jump on them at +7 over Colorado. Colorado's defense will be just about non-existent this season, and they finished last season 1-2 S/U and 0-3 ATS. Colorado State will also have the big advantage of having played a game going into this one.

I will be watching

[Gamblinmann]

Watch the Colorado State vs Oregon State game carefully. If Colorado State looks real good, jump on them at +7 over Colorado. Colorado's defense will be just about non-existent this season, and they finished last season 1-2 S/U and 0-3 ATS. Colorado State will also have the big advantage of having played a game going into this one.

I'll have my mind made up at halftime on that Rams vs Buffs play. Just need to see if all the good things I'm reading about the CS D flying to the ball is true.

[Gamblinmann]

Lines starting to move at some books. Colorado St finally moved to -4 and I expect it to hit 4.5 by Friday. South Florida also up a half but I don't believe it hits -21, but then again I am a moron so what do I know........

[BigdaddyQH]

Lines starting to move at some books. Colorado St finally moved to -4 and I expect it to hit 4.5 by Friday. South Florida also up a half but I don't believe it hits -21, but then again I am a moron so what do I know........

The line is still CSU -3 1/2 in most Vegas shops. USF is still a solid 20-20 1/2 point favorite. I do not play the ripoff books (Off shore) but from what I am led to believe, 3 1/2 and 20 1/2 seem to be the lines there also.

[Gamblinmann]

The line is still CSU -3 1/2 in most Vegas shops. USF is still a solid 20-20 1/2 point favorite. I do not play the ripoff books (Off shore) but from what I am led to believe, 3 1/2 and 20 1/2 seem to be the lines there also.

Not all offshore books are rip offs, but many are. Oddsmaker moved to -4 and Betonline has the juice at -115 at 3.5 meaning it's heading to 4. My local guy has -4 now also. Personally, I think the line should be -6.5.

[BigdaddyQH]

I took USF and gave 20 points. I have not yet payed the Oregon State, Colorado State game. The lines at most Vegas books is still at -3 1/2. I will wait to see if any Oregon State money comes in.

[eeezzzz]

Great post man

[Gamblinmann]

I took USF and gave 20 points. I have not yet payed the Oregon State, Colorado State game. The lines at most Vegas books is still at -3 1/2. I will wait to see if any Oregon State money comes in.

Nothing wrong with being patient, a quality I lack at times.

[Gamblinmann]

Memphis-27 vs ULM $55 to win $50

My sole basis for this one comes down to a high powered quick strike offense against an inept defense. Riley Ferguson and company avg'd 464 ypg though the air and he comes back with his top 3 WRs including one of the best in the country Anthony Miller. Miller had 95 receptions, 1,434 yds and oh yeah, 14 TD catches. He also gets 4 returning starters on the Oline and Dorceus at RB who has big play ability.

The ULM D was ranked 119th last season. They gave up 50+ four times. They lose their best CB and Safety. ULM has a very good offense and I expect them to score a ton of points in Sun Belt play. Hell, they may even put up 21 at Memphis. However, I fully expect Memphis to hang damn near 60 on this pathetic D. Ferguson will have a career night as the high octane offense hits big play after big play.

[BigdaddyQH]

ULM's defense will improve. Memphis does not have a very good defense at all. The question is this. Knowing that Memphis is in a look ahead situation (@ UCF next) will they be able to cover the 27? Too many points for me to give away. Pass.

[Gamblinmann]

ULM's defense will improve. Memphis does not have a very good defense at all. The question is this. Knowing that Memphis is in a look ahead situation (@ UCF next) will they be able to cover the 27? Too many points for me to give away. Pass.

If we all agreed on the same plays, there would be no books. I prefer to base my plays on reality off of what I saw last season. You say the ULM D will improve. How so? They lost their best 2 DBs. They certainly cannot be any worse. Also, if you account for a natural improvement from last year to this one based on experience, then would that not hold true for the Memphis offense? I'm just saying..............

[Riders23]

I like memphis, Their defense looks to be quite a bit better this year they shut down poor offenses last year and gave it up to talented offenses. Considering it was the 1st year of a new scheme that is not too uncommon. With 2 oklahoma transfers in the secondary they have talent. Their offense should put up 40+ a game this year. ULM should be somewhat improved, but the talent differential is pretty big.

[Gamblinmann]

I like memphis, Their defense looks to be quite a bit better this year they shut down poor offenses last year and gave it up to talented offenses. Considering it was the 1st year of a new scheme that is not too uncommon. With 2 oklahoma transfers in the secondary they have talent. Their offense should put up 40+ a game this year. ULM should be somewhat improved, but the talent differential is pretty big.

The ONLY thing that worries me on this one is the dreaded appearance of the moose. I'm just hoping midway in the 4th when Memphis has their 2s and 3s in that ULM let's their 2s get some game time. That's why it's a small play for me.

[Gamblinmann]

It's FINALLY here! Added this yesterday:

Colorado St -2.5 first half $115 to win $100
Just riding the new stadium thing. The Rams should come out with a ton of energy and feed off the crowd.

Also have a 3 team parlay I did a few weeks ago $50 to win $300

Colorado St -3.5
South Florida -20
Louisville -26.5

[atsKing]

I would be careful with ORE ST. Thinking COL ST is going to score +45pts is a stretch... ORE ST only gave up +45pts once last yr. ORE ST held BOI ST to 38, WAS to 41, STAN to 26, UCLA to 38(covered all 4 as dd dogs) and even ORE to 24 which ORE ST won as a 2.5pt dog. Game 1, better believe the rd team has given this game as many extra looks as possible. ORE ST +4 and +150 or better on the $L is worth a nibble...

[Gamblinmann]

I would be careful with ORE ST. Thinking COL ST is going to score +45pts is a stretch... ORE ST only gave up +45pts once last yr. ORE ST held BOI ST to 38, WAS to 41, STAN to 26, UCLA to 38(covered all 4 as dd dogs) and even ORE to 24 which ORE ST won as a 2.5pt dog. Game 1, better believe the rd team has given this game as many extra looks as possible. ORE ST +4 and +150 or better on the $L is worth a nibble...

I would be terrified if everyone agreed with my Ram pick. I also understand your reasoning. I have spent countless hrs on this one to the point of obsession. Everyone who handicaps game over the years finds a formula that is successful for them. Mine is high powered offenses with stud QBs. I also love the quick strike ability. Now its very possible Nall runs wild and my offense does not get enough chances.

However, EVERYTHING I have heard out of fall camp says the Colorado St D is faster and more physical than anything they previously had. Their LBs are their strength. I am worried about the secondary but who is Luton gonna throw to? The Beaver WR corps is that teams weakness. I expect the Rams to stack the box, shut down the run and force Luton to beat them.

As for the Beaver D from last season, I do believe they lost their best safety and corner. Also, those teams you mention did not have one Michael Gallup. This dude is one of the top 5 WRs in the country IMHO. He has a monster year just on talent and word is he worked all summer on his route running.

Best of luck to you (except on this one)!

[JayDr3am]

colorado state is interesting cause they letting the hook hang and is probably not gonna change it. i like Colorado state here too BOL

[Gamblinmann]

colorado state is interesting cause they letting the hook hang and is probably not gonna change it. i like Colorado state here too BOL

Good luck to you also, have a great day!

[atsKing]

Yes sirrr, GL except on this 1, lol.
This is a small play for me on ORE ST. I LUV DAWGS!$! Always look at games from that perspective. Will be curious to see how or if some of our games line up vs each other. BOL this season... small favs do well early in the season. So your probably golden!

[JayDr3am]

2H play could be solid here

[Gamblinmann]

When the gambling gods give you a gift, you humbly accept it. It's sweet to get my first win even if it was tainted. Thank You Mr replay official!

[BreesIsTheGOAT]

There was a clear bobble though that's why it couldn't be overturned. However, if they call it a catch it wouldn't have been overturned either. I loved the call $$$

[Gamblinmann]

There was a clear bobble though that's why it couldn't be overturned. However, if they call it a catch it wouldn't have been overturned either. I loved the call $$$

I've had my fair share of calls go against me so It's nice to get one. Now I gotta hope the D coordinator for Colorado St removes his head from his asz and calls blitz, blitz, and blitz again. Freaking Luton has all day. WTF!

[atsKing]

When the gambling gods give you a gift, you humbly accept it. It's sweet to get my first win even if it was tainted. Thank You Mr replay official!

tread very carefully from this point out... if your first win was a tainted gift from the gambling gods, LOL