[aston]

no need for greed should be a easy 4K +

I have posted big money line bets before and won in the long term

*please check my history if you wish to verify*

WISH ME LUCK GENTS AND I WISH YOU THE SAME GOOD LUCK


[IMG][/IMG]

[dmncnlou]

Good luck. The return would have to be at least 6k for me.

[aston]

Good luck. The return would have to be at least 6k for me.

thank you dmncnlou

[stackz125]

Has to fake or a friend
No SBR poster has the money to bet 25k

[aston]

Has to fake or a friend
No SBR poster has the money to bet 25k

stackz125

please taka a look at my history of posts that I have BET LARGE MONEY NFL LINES IN MY *HISTORY*

cant be faking all those tickets for years

again I URGE YOU TO LOOK AT MY HISTORY OF BETTING

ENOUGH SAID!

[AceKingHigh]

Hi Aston, GL my friend. I think about laying somewhat big bet too on that game. maybe though 6k to win 1k

[aston]

Hi Aston, GL my friend. I think about laying somewhat big bet too on that game. maybe though 6k to win 1k

AceKingHigh GO FOR IT IN THIS DAY AND AGE THIS IS THE CLOSET BET TO A GURANTEE VICTORY

[HilltopTony]

You're wagering 25k to win 4k? You may win this but in long run, these are bad plays

[Pickem2win]

You're wagering 25k to win 4k? You may win this but in long run, these are bad plays

This!

[newbie64]

Good luck

[docKT]

GL!

[PhattDaddy204]

Do a middle At bet $25K on Washington +14

[aston]

Good luck

newbie64 cheers

[LtDarsh]

Its Canadian money, 25k is like 100$ USD Just kidding, I love Canada! Hope this hits for you and I think it will

[tcarn01]

I'm going the other way. I think Washington wins this

[Snowden]

Has to fake or a friend
No SBR poster has the money to bet 25k

Not true.

[JTrain]

holy smokes

[spankmythighs]

Dogs are 13-19 SU and 23-9 ATS so far. I love the value in Wash. I think Bama wins but not by almost 2 tds. 70% Wash -13.5 and 30% ML

[phil_abuster]

no need for greed should be a easy 4K +

I have posted big money line bets before and won in the long term

*please check my history if you wish to verify*

WISH ME LUCK GENTS AND I WISH YOU THE SAME GOOD LUCK

seriously dude, u have a pair of big ones to make a ML bet of this size,
but i believe u and i do wish u good fortune!


that said, a couple observations for those reading this:

1/ common wisdom suggests limiting each bet to maximum 2-4% of br
to avoid the "risk of ruin"
* although i have failed this myself on numerous occasions

2/ the moneyline odds r rarely in favor of either side.
oddsmakers compute the true odds of any given occurance
then set the moneyline settings to be WORSE than those odds for either side
over time this is a loser (as another poster pointed out)

3/ just this year, Louisville were 17pt favs @Houston and got routed!
the following week, i figured there was no effing way that Louisville
could lose AT HOME, as -26 favs, to then mediocre 6-5 Kentucky.
indeed stats show that -26 pt favs (past 14 seasons) were 46-0 su!!!
today that stat is 46-1

4/ in this bowl season, -15.5 fav Colo.St lost outright!

5/ over the past 14 seasons, favs of -14 pts (based on closing line)
have been 308 contests -- the heavy favs LOST 41 times (13.3%)
and that assumes the closing line is consensus -14
at -14.5 closing line the losing percentage rises to 16.9%
or -13.5 closing line the losing percentage rises to 17.6%
more simply, these numbers suggest about a 1 in 6 chance of losing a lot of effing money
sure the chances of winning, historically at this line, r about 5 in 6, but
most of us would prefer an edge in either the odds or the money to
make any wager and this appears to have neither.

yes, bama is CLEARLY the better team and should win outright, possibly by a lot!
but we should always keep in mind these 3 risks which we cant handicap:

1/ f*cking unlucky breaks! (unlucky turnovers, penalties, kick returns)

2/ bad officiating calls which ultimately affect the outcome
remember Okl.St and c.mich this yr!
3/ late suspensions or game injuries/ejections to key players!!!


i may also place a ML bet on bama, but small, due to those 3 risks!
and for THAT reason i hope U win lol

[phil_abuster]

and just after composing all that i check the vegasodds page
and see the lines have just dropped on Bama to consensus -13
but -12.5 at the greek and pinnacle which i grabbed
and the greek has a ML of -465 which i grabbed

at a CLOSING LINE of -13 or -12.5 the odds of winniing SU r about 80% historically
i just feel washington is overvalued here
Bama spanked USC 52-6, and later, Washington LOST at home to USC

[YoungGambler]

Legendary threads like these usually end horrible

[phil_abuster]

Originally Posted by stackz125

Has to fake or a friend
No SBR poster has the money to bet 25k




Not true.

agreed.
though i submit its likely to be all or most of ones entire br

usually, those who r least likely to have a 25k+ br
r any and all of those who frequently boast about
their claims of an awesome winning ability and
supposed massive br, or otherwise claiming to b
wealthier than 95% of us

[BigdaddyQH]

I have proved this clown to be a fraud and a liar every time he posts this garbage. This is no different. Do you see a date? Do you see a name of the Book this wager was allegedly made with. Give it up loser.

[mtofell]

Bovada has WAS @ + 14.5 bouncing back and forth between -115 and -120. Bama -14.5 between -105 and even.

I wish they'd move the number to an even 14 but it looks like they are sticking with 14.5

A couple weeks ago the talk on some shows was that this would end up around WAS +17. It's surprising me to see how much faith there is with WAS here.

[mohye1980]

and just after composing all that i check the vegasodds page
and see the lines have just dropped on Bama to consensus -13
but -12.5 at the greek and pinnacle which i grabbed
and the greek has a ML of -465 which i grabbed

at a CLOSING LINE of -13 or -12.5 the odds of winniing SU r about 80% historically
i just feel washington is overvalued here
Bama spanked USC 52-6, and later, Washington LOST at home to USC

The usc team Bama beat is not the same team that beat Washington.

[Seattle Slew]

I need to see a book and confirm wager before I believe anyone on this forum has the cash for this type of bet.

But if it's real, good luck. Think you're safe.

I have proved this clown to be a fraud and a liar every time he posts this garbage. This is no different. Do you see a date? Do you see a name of the Book this wager was allegedly made with. Give it up loser.

[YoungGambler]

The book is bet365 if you care

[phil_abuster]

The book is bet365 if you care

agreed. bet365 displayed clearly
ticket appears legit.
i really hope he wins

[aston]

its canadian money, 25k is like 100$ usd :d just kidding, i love canada! Hope this hits for you and i think it will

thank you sir

[aston]

I have proved this clown to be a fraud and a liar every time he posts this garbage. This is no different. Do you see a date? Do you see a name of the Book this wager was allegedly made with. Give it up loser.

smalldaddy my ticket is legit you small wonder of a man

from bet 365

[aston]

i need to see a book and confirm wager before i believe anyone on this forum has the cash for this type of bet.

But if it's real, good luck. Think you're safe.

bet 365

[aston]

agreed. Bet365 displayed clearly

ticket appears legit.

Thank you
i really hope he wins

phil buster cheers mate

[MexicanStallion]

Good luck Aston. End the year with a winner.

[AceKingHigh]

Congrats man!

[intermission]

strippers all night!!!!!!!!!!!